nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2014‒12‒08
23 papers chosen by
Marc Klemp
Brown University

  1. On the Ethnic Origins of African Development Chiefs and Pre-colonial Political Centralization By Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou
  2. Growth, Trade, and Inequality By Gene M. Grossman; Elhanan Helpman
  3. Education and growth with learning by doing By Marconi G.; Grip A. de
  4. Inequality and trust: new evidence from panel data By Guglielmo Barone; Sauro Mocetti
  5. Spatial Growth: The Distribution of Capital across Locations when Saving Rates are Exogenous By Anastasios Xepapadeas; Athanasios Yannacopoulos; Andreas Ioannidis
  6. Growth Complementarity Between Agriculture and Industry: Evidence from a Panel of Developing Countries By de Souza, Joao Paulo A.;
  7. Political Ideology and Economic Growth: Evidence from the French Democracy By François Facchini; Mickaël Melki
  8. Macroeconomic Performance under an Evolutionary Dynamics of Profit Sharing By Gilberto Tadeu Lima; Jaylson Jair Silveira
  9. Energy and Economic Growth: The Stylized Facts By Zsuzsanna Csereklyei; Maria del Mar Rubio Varas; David I. Stern
  10. Longevity, Age-Structure, and Optimal Schooling By Noël Bonneuil; Raouf Boucekkine
  11. Does Public Education Expansion Lead to Trickle-Down Growth? By Böhm, Sebastian; Grossmann, Volker; Steger, Thomas M.
  12. Tackling the instability of growth: A Kaleckian model with autonomous demand expenditures By Olivier Allain
  13. Africa Rising: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend By Paulo Drummond; Vimal Thakoor; Shu Yu
  14. Financial Development and Economic Growth in a Natural Resource Based Economy: Evidence from Angola By Yuri Quixina; Álvaro Almeida
  15. Resource Scarcity and Environmental Adaptation in Poorer Societies By Namasaka, Martin
  16. Poverty trap and educational shock: Evidence from missionary fields By Dimico, Arcangelo
  17. Intertemporal equilibrium with production: bubbles and efficiency By Stefano Bosi; Cuong Le Van; Ngoc-Sang Pham
  18. Impact of broadband speed on economic outputs: An empirical study of OECD countries By Kongaut, Chatchai; Bohlin, Erik
  19. Micro and Macro Policies in Keynes+Schumpeter Evolutionary Models By Giovanni Dosi; Mauro Napoletano; Andrea Roventini; Tania Treibich
  20. Diversification versus specialization -- lessons from a noise driven linear dynamical system By Gabriell Mate; Zoltan Neda
  21. Piketty’s Elasticity of Substitution: A Critique By Gregor Semieniuk
  22. On the World Productivity Distribution: Recent Convergence and Divergence Patterns By Mendez-Guerra, Carlos
  23. The Biocultural Origins of Human Capital Formation By Oded Galor; Marc Klemp

  1. By: Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou
    Abstract: We report on recent findings of a fruitful research agenda that explores the importance of ethnic-specific traits in shaping African development. First, using recent surveys from Sub-Saharan African countries, we document that individuals identify with their ethnic group as often as with the nation pointing to the salience of ethnicity. Second, we focus on the various historical and contemporary functions of tribal leaders (chiefs) and illustrate their influence on various aspects of the economy and the polity. Third, we elaborate on a prominent dimension of ethnicity, that of the degree of complexity of pre-colonial political organization. Building on insights from the African historiography, we review recent works showing a strong association between pre-colonial centralization and contemporary comparative development both across and within countries. We also document that the strong link between pre-colonial political centralization and regional development -as captured by satellite images of light density at night- is particularly strong in areas outside the vicinity of the capitals, where due to population mixing and the salience of national institutions ethnic traits play a lesser role. Overall, our evidence is supportive to theories and narratives on the presence of a "dual" economic and institutional environment in Africa.
    JEL: O10 O40 O43 Z1 Z13
    Date: 2014–09
  2. By: Gene M. Grossman; Elhanan Helpman
    Abstract: We introduce firm and worker heterogeneity into a model of innovation-driven endogenous growth. Individuals who differ in ability sort into either a research sector or a manufacturing sector that produces differentiated goods. Each research project generates a new variety of the differentiated product and a random technology for producing it. Technologies differ in complexity and productivity, and technological sophistication is complementary to worker ability. We study the co-determination of growth and income inequality in both the closed and open economy, as well as the spillover effects of policy and conditions in one country to outcomes in others.
    JEL: D33 F12 F16 O41
    Date: 2014–09
  3. By: Marconi G.; Grip A. de (ROA)
    Abstract: In this paper, we develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model which is based on the view that education makes workers more productive by increasing their ability to learn from work experience, rather than providing skills that directly increase productivity. This assumption is discussed and compared with the dominant Mincerian view on the education-productivity relationship. One important implication of the model is that the enrolment rate to education has a negative effect on the GDP in the medium term and a positive effect in the long term. This could be an explanation for the weak empirical relationship between education and economic growth that has been found in the empirical macroeconomic literature. Conversely, for a given enrolment rate, the quality of education, as measured by workers ability to learn, has a positive effect on the GDP both in the medium and in the long term.
    Keywords: Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity; Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models;
    JEL: J24 O11 O41
    Date: 2014
  4. By: Guglielmo Barone (Bank of Italy, Regional Economic Research Division, Bologna Branch, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy); Sauro Mocetti (Bank of Italy, Regional Economic Research Division, Bologna Branch)
    Abstract: The relationship between inequality and trust has attracted the interest of many scholars who have found a negative relationship between the two variables. However, the causal link from inequality to trust is far from being identified and the existing empirical evidence admittedly remains weak, as the omitted variable bias, reverse causation and/or measurement error might be at work. In this paper, we reconsider the country-level evidence to address this issue. First, we exploit the panel dimension of the data, thus controlling for any country unobservable time-invariant variables. Second, we provide instrumental variable estimates using the predicted exposure to technological change as an exogenous driver of inequality. According to our findings, income inequality significantly and negatively affects generalised trust. However, this result only holds for developed countries. We also explore new insights on the effects of different dimensions of inequality, exploiting measures of both static inequality – such as the Gini index and top income shares – and dynamic inequality – proxied by intergenerational income mobility.
    Date: 2014–11
  5. By: Anastasios Xepapadeas; Athanasios Yannacopoulos; Andreas Ioannidis
    Abstract: Economic growth has traditionally been analyzed in the temporal domain, while the spatial dimension is captured by cross-country income differences. Data suggest great inequality in income per capita across countries, with a slight but noticeable increase over time (Acemoglu 2009). Seeking to explore the mechanism underlying the temporal evolution of the cross sectional distribution of economies, we develop a spatial growth model where saving rates are exogenous. Capital movements across locations are governed by having capital moving towards locations of relatively higher marginal productivity, with a velocity determined by the existing stock of capital and its marginal productivity. This mechanism leads to a capital accumulation equation augmented by a nonlinear diffusion term, which characterizes spatial movements. Our results suggest that under diminishing returns, the growth process leads to a stable spatially non-homogenous distribution for per capita capital and income in the long run. AK production functions and increasing returns lead to strong persistent and increasing concentration of capital in a very few locations. Insufficient savings may lead to the emergence of poverty cores where capital stock is depleted in some locations.
    Keywords: Economic growth, space, capital flows, nonlinear diffusion, Solow model, steady-state distributions, stability
    JEL: O4 R1 C6
    Date: 2014–11–08
  6. By: de Souza, Joao Paulo A. (The University of Massachusetts at Amherst); (The University of Massachusetts at Amherst)
    Abstract: Using dynamic panel models with data for 62 developing countries, this paper examines whether growth in agriculture elicits growth in manufacturing. For identification, I use population-weighted, average temperature as an instrument for growth in agriculture. I identify large short-run effects: An increase in growth in agriculture by one percentage point is estimated to raise contemporaneous growth in manufacturing by between 0.47 and 0.56 percentage points. The baseline models also imply sizable long-run effects of permanent increases in growth in agriculture. Extensions of the empirical model suggest that growth in agriculture benefits the manufacturing sector by improving its domestic terms of trade, by increasing the share of investment and saving in GDP, and by increasing the capacity to import industrial inputs. The paper makes two main contributions. First, it joins a growing literature using climate data to identify supply shocks in agriculture, establishing a robust empirical relation between these shocks and growth in manufacturing. Second, it includes a stylized two-sector model to illuminate the macroeconomic channels behind this complementarity. Together, these contributions lend support to the notion that agriculture plays key macroeconomic roles in the industrialization of developing countries by relieving saving, aggregate demand, _scale, and foreign exchange constraints on the industrial sector.
    Keywords: Agricultural Productivity, Industrialization, Multisector Growth
    JEL: O13 O14 O41
    Date: 2014
  7. By: François Facchini (Université Paris-Sud - Faculté Jean Monnet, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne); Mickaël Melki (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: We provide a test of the impact of voters' political ideology on economic growth and of the role of preferences for government size as a transmission channel. We focus on France from the beginning of its stable democratic experience in 1871. A move of voters' ideology to the right increases economic growth over total observation period. However, the growth effect of ideology is mediated by voters' preferences for government size only during the post-World War II period. For reverse causality concerns, we use the political ideology of other historical democracies as an instrument variable for France's ideology.
    Keywords: Political ideology; economic growth; public spending
    Date: 2013–11
  8. By: Gilberto Tadeu Lima; Jaylson Jair Silveira
    Abstract: This paper explores implications for capacity utilization and economic growth driven by effective demand of income distribution featuring the possibility of profit sharing with workers. Firms choose to compensate workers with either a base wage or a share of profits on top of this base wage. In accordance with robust empirical evidence, workers in sharing firms have higher productivity than workers in non-sharing firms. Meanwhile, the joint frequency distribution of employee compensation strategies and labor productivity across firms is evolutionarily time-varying. Two major results carrying relevant theoretical and policy implications obtain from our exploration. First, heterogeneity in employee compensation strategies across firms may emerge as a permanent, long-run equilibrium outcome. Second, in the long run, a higher frequency of profit-sharing firms does not necessarily generate higher rates of capacity utilization and economic growth.
    Keywords: Profit sharing; evolutionary dynamics; income distribution; capacity utilization; economic growth.
    JEL: E12 E25 J33 O40
    Date: 2014–11–07
  9. By: Zsuzsanna Csereklyei (Geschwister Scholl Institute of Political Science, Ludwig-Maximilians-UniversitŠt Munich); Maria del Mar Rubio Varas (Department of Economics, Universidad Publica de Navarra); David I. Stern (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)
    Abstract: We summarize what we know about energy and economic growth in a set of stylized facts. We combine analysis of a panel data set of 99 countries from 1971 to 2010 with analysis of some longer run historical data. Our key result is that over the last 40 years there has been a stable cross-sectional relationship between per capita energy use and income per capita with an elasticity of energy use with respect to income of less than unity. This implies that energy intensity has tended to decrease in countries that have become richer but not in others. We also find that over the last two centuries there has been convergence in energy intensity towards the current distribution, per capita energy use has tended to rise, energy quality to increase, and, though evidence is limited, the cost share of energy has declined.
    Keywords: economic development, energy intensity, energy efficiency
    JEL: Q43 O44 O13
    Date: 2014–11
  10. By: Noël Bonneuil (Institut national d’études démographiques, EHESS); Raouf Boucekkine (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS & EHESS, senior member, Institut universitaire de France)
    Abstract: The mechanism stating that longer life implies larger investment in human capital, is premised on the view that individual decision-making governs the relationship between longevity and education. This relationship is revisited here from the perspective of optimal period school life expectancy, obtained from the utility maximization of the whole population characterized by its age structure and its age-specific fertility and mortality. Realistic life tables such as model life tables are mandatory, because the age distribution of mortality matters, notably at infant and juvenile ages. Optimal period school life expectancy varies with life expectancy and mortality. Applications to stable population models and then to French historical data from 1806 to nowadays show that the population age structure has indeed modified the relationship between longevity and optimal schooling.
    Keywords: longevity, schooling, school life expectancy, age structure
    Date: 2014–11
  11. By: Böhm, Sebastian (University of Leipzig); Grossmann, Volker (University of Fribourg); Steger, Thomas M. (University of Leipzig)
    Abstract: The paper revisits the debate on trickle-down growth in view of the widely discussed evolution of the earnings and income distribution that followed a massive expansion of higher education. We propose a dynamic general equilibrium model to dynamically evaluate whether economic growth triggered by an increase in public education expenditure on behalf of those with high learning ability eventually trickles down to low-ability workers and serves them better than redistributive transfers. Our results suggest that, in the shorter run, low-skilled workers lose. They are better off from promoting equally sized redistributive transfers. In the longer run, however, low-skilled workers eventually benefit more from the education policy. Interestingly, although the expansion of education leads to sustained increases in the skill premium, income inequality follows an inverted U-shaped evolution.
    Keywords: directed technological change, publicly financed education, redistributive transfers, transitional dynamics, trickle-down growth
    JEL: H20 J31 O30
    Date: 2014–10
  12. By: Olivier Allain (Université Paris Descartes - Sorbonne Paris Cité - Faculté de Droit, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: This article presents a Kaleckian model enriched by introducing autonomous public expenditure which grows at an exogenous rate. It shows that the usual properties are not affected in the short run: growth is wage-led. But long run properties are strongly affected: public expenditure plays a role as an automatic stabilizer so that the accumulation rate converges on the growth rate of public expenditure. The effect of a change in income distribution on the growth rate is then only transient. However, the impacts on the level of variables (output, capital stock, labor, etc.) remain permanent. The research here also shows that this theoretical framework can provide a solution (depending on the parameters) to the 'second' Harrod knife-edge problem. In this case, Kaleckian outcomes are consistent with the convergence of the current utilization rate on the 'normal' rate, a result which has not been found in the existing literature.
    Keywords: Kaleckian models; utilization rate; Harrod instability; income distribution; automatic stabilizers
    Date: 2013–03
  13. By: Paulo Drummond; Vimal Thakoor; Shu Yu
    Abstract: Africa will account for 80 percent of the projected 4 billion increase in the global population by 2100. The accompanying increase in its working age population creates a window of opportunity, which if properly harnessed, can translate into higher growth and yield a demographic dividend. We quantify the potential demographic dividend based on the experience of other regions. The dividend will vary across countries, depending on such factors as the initial working age population as well as the speed and magnitude of demographic transition. It will be critical to ensure that the right supportive policies, including those fostering human capital accumulation and job creation, are in place to translate this opportunity into concrete economic growth.
    Keywords: Demographic transition;Africa;Sub-Saharan Africa;Population growth;Human capital;Labor force participation;Econometric models;Demographic Dividend, Economic Growth, Sub-Saharan Africa, Panel Estimates
    Date: 2014–08–05
  14. By: Yuri Quixina (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto); Álvaro Almeida (CEF.UP and Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Angola, an economy heavily dependent on natural resources. We extend existing literature by treating separately the oil and non-oil sectors of the economy. We test for Granger causality between three variables – oil revenues, non-oil GDP and financial development – for the Angolan economy for the period 1995-2012. The results show that the oil sector has been the great engine of Angolan economic growth, since we identified Granger causality from oil revenues to the other two variables, but none of these variables Granger causes oil revenues. On the other hand, financial development does not seem to have a significant role in economic growth in Angola: it does not Granger-cause either oil revenues or non-oil GDP, even though it is Granger-caused by both variables.
    Keywords: Financial Development, Economic Growth, Natural Resources, Angola
    JEL: E44 O16 O43 Q32
    Date: 2014–09
  15. By: Namasaka, Martin
    Abstract: Resource scarcity and environmental degradation due to population growth could be one of the reasons why poor societies, especially those that are dependent on resources, are failing to achieve high rates of growth and sustained economic growth . This debate has long been running, extending back to Thomas Robert Malthus gloomy prediction that, “more people would doom us to a gigantic inevitable famine,” however, there are conflicting views and examples of how human capacities have adapted to resource scarcity, sustaining their livelihoods, as well as reducing institutionalised poverty through innovation, technology and social organisation, hence the relationship between resource scarcity and environmental degradation especially in poorer societies.
    Keywords: Resource Scarcity, Environmental Degradation, Economic Growth
    JEL: O1 O19 O4 O43 O44 Q1 Q55
    Date: 2014–11–07
  16. By: Dimico, Arcangelo
    Abstract: Low growth equilibria with low investment in human capital generally tend to persist till an external shock affects the economy. In this paper we use data on Christian missions to proxy a long-lasting educational shock in Africa. We estimate the effect of this shock on the quality of children which we proxy using the rate of underweight children. Consistent with the economic theory we find that the quality of children significantly rises with the exposure to this shock and this indirect effect accounts to almost 4 percent in terms of GDP for districts with the maximal exposure
    Keywords: Poverty Trap,Christian Missions,Education,Development
    JEL: O10
    Date: 2014
  17. By: Stefano Bosi (EPEE, University of Evry); Cuong Le Van (IPAG Business School, CNRS, Paris School of Economics); Ngoc-Sang Pham (EPEE, University of Evry)
    Abstract: We consider a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, borrowing constraints, and exogenous labor supply. First, the existence of intertemporal equilibrium is proved even if the aggregate capitals are not uniformly bounded above and the production functions are not time invariant. Second, we call by physical capital bubble a situation in which the fundamental value of physical capital is lower than its market price. We show that there is a physical capital bubble if and only if the sum (over time) of capital returns is finite. We also point out that there is no causal relationship between physical capital bubble and the fact that the present value of output is finite. Last, with linear technologies, every intertemporal equilibrium is efficient in sense of Malinvaud (1953). Moreover, there is a room for both efficiency and bubble.
    Keywords: Intertemporal equilibrium, physical capital bubble, efficiency, infinite horizon
    JEL: C62 D31 D91 G10
    Date: 2014
  18. By: Kongaut, Chatchai; Bohlin, Erik
    Abstract: Due to the development of new innovations and technologies, broadband services currently require more transmission capacity to work properly and efficiently with new content. Higher quality video content and more complex applications on internet services also require faster broadband speed. Hence, policy-makers have implemented broadband policy to ensure that countries will have high speed broadband infrastructure for both wired and wireless services. Even though the importance of broadband speed has been recognised almost everywhere, there are only a few studies investigating this issue in the academic field, especially in empirical research. In the past, a number of studies have analysed the impacts of broadband penetration on economic growth and indicated that higher broadband penetration leads to greater economic impacts. Nevertheless, other characteristics of broadband services such as different speeds of transmission, type of connection, quality of service and service providers are becoming more important to determine the economic impacts, as they vary across countries. Hence, broadband penetration on its own may not be a good measurement of the impacts of broadband services on the economy. This study therefore aims to add knowledge from a speed transmission perspective and enrich the empirical evidence in broadband speed studies, which has so far been limited. Similarly to the studies on the effects of telecommunication services (computer, mobile telephony and broadband penetration) on economic outputs, the estimated regressions of the model between broadband speed and economic outputs such as GDP are likely to suffer from endogeneity bias. To reduce the endogeneity problem, this study compares different models to provide the robustness of the relationship between broadband speed and economic outputs. This study also further analyses and compares the relationship between high and low income OECD countries. This paper applies the data from 2008 to 2012, mainly from the OECD and World Bank statistics, for most of the variables and the Ookla website for the broadband speed variable. The outcomes of this study are that broadband speed contributes positively to economic outputs such as GDP. The effects of broadband speed are also greater in countries with lower income. The policy recommendation is therefore that countries should focus on and encourage high speed broadband infrastructure and adoption in their national broadband plans and policies, which will ultimately lead to economic development.
    Date: 2014
  19. By: Giovanni Dosi; Mauro Napoletano; Andrea Roventini; Tania Treibich
    Abstract: This paper presents the family of the Keynes+Schumpeter (K+S, cf. Dosi et al, 2010, 2013, 2014) evolutionary agent-based models, which study the effects of a rich ensemble of innovation, industrial dynamics and macroeconomic policies on the long-term growth and short-run fluctuations of the economy. The K+S models embed the Schumpeterian growth paradigm into a complex system of imperfect coordination among heterogeneous interacting firms and banks, where Keynesian (demand-related) and Minskian (credit cycle) elements feed back into the meso and macro dynamics. The model is able to endogenously generate long-run growth together with business cycles and major crises. Moreover, it reproduces a long list of macroeconomic and microeconomic stylized facts. Here, we discuss a series of experiments on the role of policies affecting i) innovation, ii) industry dynamics, iii) demand and iv) income distribution. Our results suggest the presence of strong complementarities between Schumpeterian (technological) and Keynesian (demand-related) policies in ensuring that the economic system follows a path of sustained stable growth and employment.
    Keywords: agent-based model, fiscal policy, economic crises, austerity policies, disequilibrium dynamics
    Date: 2014–11–15
  20. By: Gabriell Mate; Zoltan Neda
    Abstract: Specialization and diversification are two major strategies that complex systems might exploit. Given a fixed amount of resources, the question is whether to invest this in elements that respond in a correlated manner to external perturbations, or to build a diversified system with groups of elements that respond in a not necessarily correlated manner. This general dilemma is investigated here using a high dimensional discrete dynamical system subject to an external noise, analyzing the statistical properties of an order parameter that quantifies growth. Our analytical solution suggests that diversification is a good strategy once the system has a fair amount of resources. For systems with small or extremely large supplies, we argue that specialization might be a more successful strategy. We discuss the results also from the perspective of economic and biologic systems.
    Date: 2014–11
  21. By: Gregor Semieniuk (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA))
    Abstract: This note examines Thomas Piketty's (2014) explanation and prediction of simultaneously rising capital income ratio and profit share by an elasticity of substitution, sigma, greater than one between labor and capital in an aggregate production function. I review Piketty's elasticity argument, which relies on a non-standard capital definition. In light of the theory of land rent, I discuss why the non-standard capital definition is problematic for estimating elasticities. For lack of existing results, I make a simple estimate of sigma in the class of constant elasticity of substitution functions for Piketty's data as well as for a subset of his capital measure that comes closer to the standard capital definition. The estimation results cast doubt on Piketty's hypothesis of a sigma greater than one.
    Keywords: rent theory, wealth definition, capitalization of land, elasticity of substitution, Piketty
    JEL: B12 E01 E25
    Date: 2014–08
  22. By: Mendez-Guerra, Carlos
    Abstract: The post-World War II period has seen substantial changes in labor productivity around the world. Motivated by these changes, this article documents four facts about the world productivity distribution. First, there is a large and increasing disparity between the tails. Second, this disparity rapidly increased in the mid-1980s, slowed down in the next decade, and stabilized in the mid-2000s. Third, overtime, there has been substantial forward and backward mobility of countries and regions. Fourth, the upper tail of the distribution is more sensitive to improvements in human capital, while the lower tail is more sensitive to improvements in efficiency.
    Keywords: labor productivity, world productivity distribution, convergence
    JEL: E10 O40 O50
    Date: 2014–10–10
  23. By: Oded Galor; Marc Klemp
    Abstract: This research explores the biocultural origins of human capital formation. It presents the first evidence that moderate fecundity and thus predisposition towards investment in child quality was conducive for long-run reproductive success within the human species. Using an extensive genealogical record for nearly half a million individuals in Quebec from the sixteenth to the eighteenth centuries, the study explores the effect of fecundity on the number of descendants of early inhabitants in the subsequent four generations. The research exploits variation in the random component of the time interval between the date of first marriage and the first birth to establish that while higher fecundity is associated with a larger number of children, an intermediate level maximizes long-run reproductive success. Moreover, the observed hump-shaped effect of fecundity on long-run reproductive success reflects the negative effect of higher fecundity on the quality of each child. The finding further indicates that the optimal level of fecundity was below the population median, lending credence to the hypothesis that during the Malthusian epoch, the forces of natural selection favored individuals with lower fecundity and thus larger predisposition towards child quality, contributing to human capital formation, the onset of the demographic transition and the evolution of societies from an epoch of stagnation to sustained economic growth.
    JEL: J10 N30 O10
    Date: 2014–09

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