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on Economic Growth |
By: | Oded Galor; Ömer Özak |
Abstract: | This research explores the origins of the distribution of time preference across regions. It advances the hypothesis, and establishes empirically, that geographical variations in natural land productivity and their impact on the return to agricultural investment have had a persistent effect on the distribution of long-term orientation across societies. In particular, exploiting a natural experiment associated with the expansion of suitable crops for cultivation in the course of the Columbian Exchange, the research establishes that agro-climatic characteristics in the pre-industrial era that were conducive to higher return to agricultural investment, triggered selection and learning processes that had a persistent positive effect on the prevalence of long-term orientation in the contemporary era. |
JEL: | O1 O4 Z1 |
Date: | 2014–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20438&r=gro |
By: | Jenna Nobles; Elizabeth Frankenberg; Duncan Thomas |
Abstract: | Understanding how mortality and fertility are linked is essential to the study of population dynamics. We investigate the fertility response to an unanticipated mortality shock that resulted from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed large shares of the residents of some Indonesian communities but caused no deaths in neighboring communities. Using population-representative multilevel longitudinal data, we identify a behavioral fertility response to mortality exposure, both at the level of a couple and in the broader community. We observe a sustained fertility increase at the aggregate level following the tsunami, which is driven by two behavioral responses to mortality exposure. First, mothers who lost one or more children in the disaster are significantly more likely to bear additional children after the tsunami. This response explains about 13 percent of the aggregate increase in fertility. Second, women without children before the tsunami initiated family-building earlier in communities where tsunami-related mortality rates were higher, indicating that the fertility of these women is an important route to rebuilding the population in the aftermath of a mortality shock. Such community-level effects have received little attention in demographic scholarship. |
JEL: | J11 J13 O1 |
Date: | 2014–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20448&r=gro |
By: | Joshua Wilde (Department of Economics, University of South Florida); Benedicte Apouey (Paris School of Economics -- CNRS); Toni Jung (Department of Economics, University of California Davis) |
Abstract: | We ask whether individuals conceived during heat waves have better education and health outcomes later in life. Using Census and DHS data from sub-Saharan Africa, we show that individuals conceived during heat waves have higher educational attainment and literacy, less disabilities, and lower child mortality. We then explore several channels through which this effect may occur. Although there is some evidence that parents who conceive during heat waves have different characteristics than those who do not, these differences do not explain our findings. Instead, we find that natural selection through fetal loss is the most likely mechanism driving our result. |
Keywords: | Temperature, Climate, Conception, Disability, Education, Fertility, Health, Human Capital, Literacy, Schooling, Sexual Activity, Spontaneous Abortion, Sub-Saharan Africa |
JEL: | I12 I15 J13 O15 |
Date: | 2014–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usf:wpaper:0514&r=gro |
By: | Ivar Kolstad; Arne Wiig |
Abstract: | Does diversification of an economy improve the chances of democracy? This paper estimates the effect of export diversification on democracy levels, using data from 143 countries. The endogeneity of diversification is addressed by using variability within countries in fertile soil as an instrumental variable, controlling for country size. The results show that diversification has a significant, positive effect on levels of democracy. This suggests that less concentrated economic power in a society leads to more widely distributed political power. The results are robust to alternative measures of diversification and democracy, and to additional covariates. Results are also similar for diversification indices excluding oil, suggesting that the uncovered relationship is not entirely about oil. |
Keywords: | Diversification, concentration, democracy, political economy |
Date: | 2014 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chm:wpaper:wp2014-9&r=gro |
By: | Douglas L. Campbell (New Economic School (NES)); Ju Hyun Pyun (Korea University Business School) |
Abstract: | Why are some societies still poor? Recent research suggests that a country’s “genetic distance”—a measure of the time elapsed since two populations had common ancestry—from the United States is a significant predictor of development even after controlling for an ostensibly exhaustive list of geographic, historical, religious and linguistic variables. We find, by contrast, that the correlation of genetic distance from the US and GDP per capita disappears with the addition of controls for geography, including distance from the equator and a dummy for sub-Saharan Africa. |
Keywords: | Genetic Distance, Economic Development, Geography, Climatic Similarity, Technological Diffusion |
JEL: | O10 O33 O49 |
Date: | 2014–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0211&r=gro |
By: | Gehringer, Agnieszka; Prettner, Klaus |
Abstract: | We analyze the impact of increasing longevity on technological progress within an R&D-based endogenous growth framework and test the model´s implications on OECD data from 1960 to 2011. The central hypothesis derived in the theoretical part is that - by raising the incentives of households to invest in physical capital and in R&D - decreasing mortality positively impacts upon technological progress and thereby also on productivity growth. The empirical results clearly confirm the theoretical prediction which implies that the ongoing demographic changes in industrialized economies are not necessarily detrimental to economic prosperity, at least as far as technological progress and productivity growth are concerned. |
Keywords: | demographic change,longevity,productivity,technological progress,economic prosperity |
JEL: | J11 O11 O40 O41 |
Date: | 2014 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:213&r=gro |
By: | Roman Horváth (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; IOS, Regensburg); Ayaz Zeynalov (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic) |
Abstract: | We examine the effect of natural resource exports on economic performance during the 1996-2011 period in the 15 independent countries that formerly comprised the Soviet Union. These countries were a largely homogeneous group with respect to social and institutional context; however, these countries began to demonstrate marked differences from one another with respect to these factors during the transition, which has resulted in unique cross-section and time variation. Using several panel regression models that address the endogeneity and clustering issues, our results suggest that natural resources crowd out manufacturing sector unless the quality of domestic institutions is sufficiently high. |
Keywords: | natural resource curse, institutions, manufacturing, post-Soviet countries |
JEL: | O11 O13 Q30 |
Date: | 2014–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2014_24&r=gro |
By: | Mikucka, Malgorzata; Sarracino, Francesco |
Abstract: | To what extent is economic growth liable to improve people’s subjective well-being in the long run? Recent studies identified three possible answers: economic growth matters a great deal; economic growth does not matter at all; economic growth matters, but other things matter more. Each of these conclusions has different policy implications to promote people’s well-being. Despite the progress of social science research, the disagreement persists for at least two reasons: first, current policy conclusions hinge on weak methodological grounds; second, the literature missed to identify the conditions shaping the relationship between economic growth and well-being. Our paper addresses these issues overcoming some of the methodological shortcomings of previous literature. Additionally, we test the hypotheses that economic growth has a positive effect on subjective well-being in presence of increasing social trust and decreasing income inequality. To this aim we use multilevel regression analysis and the integrated World Values Survey - European Values Study data-set. We confirm previous evidence showing that in the long run economic growth does not increase people’s well-being. We also document that decreasing income inequality and non decreasing social trust allow a long-term positive relationship between economic growth and subjective well-being. |
Keywords: | economic growth, subjective well-being, social trust, income inequality, Easterlin paradox, sustainability |
JEL: | D60 I0 I1 I31 |
Date: | 2014–11–04 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59695&r=gro |
By: | Juchem Neto, Joao Plinio; Claeyssen, Julio Cesar Ruiz; Porto Junior, Sabino da Silva |
Abstract: | In this paper we introduce capital transport cost in an unidimensional unbounded economy described by a spatial Solow model with capital-induced labor migration. Proceeding with a linear stability analysis of its spatially homogeneous equilibrium solution, we show that exists a critical value for the capital transport cost where the dynamic behavior of the economy changes, provided the capital-induced labor migration intensity is big enough. On one hand, if capital transport cost is bigger than this critical value, the homogeneous equilibrium of the model is stable, and the economy converges to this spatially homogeneous state in the long run; on the other hand, if transport cost is smaller than this critical value, the equilibrium is unstable, and the economy may develop distinct spatio-temporal dynamics, including the formation of stable economic clusters and spatio-temporal economic cycles, depending on the other parameters of the model. This result, though obtained using a different formalism, is consistent with the main results of the standard core-periphery model used in the New Economic Geography literature, where a small transport cost is essencial to the formation of spatial economic agglomeration. Finally, we close this work validating the linear stability analysis results through numerical simulations, and verifying that the introduction of a positive transport cost in the model causes a break in the symmetry of the spatial economic agglomerations generated. |
Keywords: | Spatial Solow Model, Regional Science, Economic Agglomeration, Economic Geography. |
JEL: | O40 R12 |
Date: | 2014–11–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59766&r=gro |
By: | Gonçalo Brás (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, Portugal); Elias Soukiazis (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and GEMF, Portugal) |
Abstract: | Within the institutional theory of North (1990, 2005), the objective of this study is to analyse the impact of economic and institutional factors, formal and informal, in the entrepreneurial activity of nations, particularly in Total Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA). In order to evaluate the simultaneous influence of economic and institutional factors on the entrepreneurial activity, a multiple regression approach is used with cross-country data sets. The results show that TEA is negatively related to infrastructural capacity and political stability of a country, and positively related to government spending and freedom of expression and corporate associations (Voice & Accountability) at a country level. It is also tested the relationship between TEA and GDP per capita. Our results confirm a convex relationship between the two variables giving evidence that the entrepreneurial activity is mostly necessity driven rather than motivated by opportunity. |
Keywords: | Entrepreneurship by necessity, Entrepreneurship by opportunity, Cross-country regression models, convexity hypothesis, threshold level. |
JEL: | L26 M13 C31 |
Date: | 2014–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2014-22.&r=gro |
By: | Andrzej Kacprzyk (University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology); Wirginia Doryn (University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology); ; |
Abstract: | There seems to be a growing consensus among economists and policy makers that investment in knowledge, which is at the center of the endogenous growth process, is a precondition for achieving permanently high economic growth. This paper examines relationship between economic growth and the various indicators of innovative activity that contribute to new knowledge creation. Our study differs from previous analyses, which mainly employed data from OECD countries. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to test whether the impact of innovative activity on growth differs between old and new European Union member states. Based on the panel data regression model we examine the interaction between economic growth and innovation, the latter proxied by R&D expenditures and patent statistics. We distinguish between publicly and privately-funded R&D and try to answer the question whether private and public R&D investments differ in terms of fostering economic growth. The results are sensitive to the sample analyzed and indicate that the relationship between innovation efforts and growth is more complex and ambiguous than expected. |
Keywords: | Economic growth, innovation, R&D, patents, panel data |
JEL: | O33 O30 O47 |
Date: | 2014–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ann:wpaper:3/2014&r=gro |
By: | Gokce Uysal (Bahcesehir University Center for Economic and Social Research); Duygu Guner (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven) |
Abstract: | Does culture affect female labor supply? In this paper, we address this question using a recent approach to measuring the effects of culture on economic outcomes, i.e. the epidemiological approach. We focus on migrants, who come from different cultures, but who share a common economic and institutional set-up today. Controlling for various individual characteristics including parental human capital as well as for current economic and institutional setup, we find that female employment rates in 1970 in a female migrant’s province of origin affects her labor supply behavior in 2008. We also show that it is the female employment rates and not male in the province of origin in 1970 that affects the current labor supply behavior. We also extend the epidemiological approach to analyze the effects of religion on female labor supply. More specifically, we use a proxy of parental religiosity, i.e. share of party votes in 1973 elections in Turkey to study female labor supply in 2008. Our findings indicate that female migrants from provinces that had larger (smaller) shares of the religious party votes in 1973 are less (more) likely to participate in the labor market in 2008. An extended model where both cultural and religiosity proxies are included shows that culture and religiosity have separately significant effects on female labor supply behavior. |
Date: | 2014–04 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bae:wpaper:013&r=gro |
By: | Katsiaryna Svirydzenka; Martin Petri |
Abstract: | Mauritius’s economic performance has been called “the Mauritian miracle†and the “success of Africa†(Romer, 1992; Frankel, 2010; Stiglitz, 2011), despite difficult initial conditions that led a Nobel Prize Winner in economics to predict stagnation (Meade, 1961). We use growth accounting to analyze the sources of past growth and project potential ranges of growth through 2033. Growth averaged 4½ percent over the past 20 years. Our baseline suggests future growth rates around 3¼ percent, but growth could reach 4-5 percent with strong pro-active policies including (i) improving investment and savings rates; (ii) improving the efficiency of social spending and public enterprise reforms; (iii) investment in education and education reforms; (iii) labor market reforms; and (iv) further measures to reduce bottlenecks and increase productivity. With policies capable of generating 5 percent growth, Mauritius could reach high-income status in 2021, 4 years earlier than under the baseline. |
Keywords: | Economic growth;Mauritius;Labor force;Labor markets;Human capital;Investment;Education;Infrastructure;Total factor productivity;Growth; Mauritius; growth accounting |
Date: | 2014–07–23 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/134&r=gro |
By: | Andrew T. Young; Matthew J. Higgins; Donald J. Lacombe; Briana Sell |
Abstract: | Conventional wisdom suggests that small businesses are innovative engines of Schumpetarian growth. However, as small businesses, they are likely to face credit rationing in financial markets. If true then policies that promote lending to small businesses may yield substantial economy-wide returns. We examine the relationship between Small Business Administration (SBA) lending and local economic growth using a spatial econometric framework across a sample of 3,035 U.S. counties for the years 1980 to 2009. We find evidence that a county's SBA lending per capita is associated with direct negative effects on its income growth. We also find evidence of indirect negative effects on the growth rates of neighboring counties. Overall, a 10% increase in SBA loans per capita is associated with a cumulative decrease in income growth rates of about 2%. |
JEL: | C31 E65 H25 O47 R11 |
Date: | 2014–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20543&r=gro |
By: | Musayev, Vusal |
Abstract: | This analysis re-examines the relationship between military spending and economic growth using recent advances in panel estimation methods and a large panel dataset. The investigation is able to reproduce many of results of the existing literature and to provide a new analysis on the relationship between conflict, corruption, natural resources and military expenditure and their direct and indirect effects on economic growth. The analysis finds that the impact of military expenditure on growth is generally negative as in the literature, but that it is not significantly detrimental for countries facing either higher internal or external threats and for countries with large natural resource wealth once corruption levels are accounted for. |
Keywords: | Military expenditure; Economic Growth; Conflict; Natural Resources, Corruption |
JEL: | H56 O11 Q34 |
Date: | 2013–04 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59784&r=gro |
By: | Mark Setterfield; Yun K. Kim; Jeremy Rees |
Abstract: | We investigate the claim that the way in which debtor households service their debts matters for macroeconomic performance. A standard Kaleckian growth model is modidied to incorporate working households who borrow to finance consumption that is determined, in part, by the desire to emulate the consumption patterns of more affluent households. The impact of this behavior on the sustainability of the growth process is then studied by means of a numerical analysis that captures various dimensions of income inequality. When compared to previous contributions to the literature, our results show that the way in which debtor households service their debt has both quantitative and qualitative effects on the economy's macrodynamics. |
Keywords: | Consumer debt, emulation, income distribution, Golden Age regime, Neoliberal regime, expenditure cascades, growth |
JEL: | E12 E44 O41 |
Date: | 2014–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mab:wpaper:2014_11&r=gro |
By: | Aurore Gary (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne); Mathilde Maurel (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
Abstract: | The literature has shown that aid and trade or aid and migration are not independent from each other: aid can be provided for relaxing migration pressures or donors can tie aid in order to increase their exports to developing countries. This finding can be generalized to other donors' policies: investment, technology, environment, security policies and it must be incorporated in the way aid effectiveness is assessed. The effect of aid can be dampened of enhanced, depending on whether aid is a substitute or a complement for other policies. In other words, donors should be consistent to be efficient. Taking advantage of CGD indices, this paper estimate growth equations by controlling for consistency. We estimate a robust and significant positive effect of donors' policy coherence from 22 DAC donors on the economic growth in developing countries. A one standard deviation increase in consistency changes results in an increase in economic growth in developing countries of 14%. |
Keywords: | Development aid; complementarity; economic growth |
Date: | 2013–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00825816&r=gro |
By: | Scott S. Condie (Department of Economics, Brigham Young University); Richard W. Evans (Department of Economics, Brigham Young University); Kerk L. Phillips (Department of Economics, Brigham Young University) |
Abstract: | This paper examines Thomas Piketty's thesis that there are no natural limits on accumulation of wealth. We undertake our examination in the context of a simple general equilibrium model with infintely-lived dynasties. We show that extreme wealth accumulation does not happen in general equilibrium unless capital and labor are substitutes, an assumption which also leads to unbalanced growth. We also show that even with unbalanced growth, differences in rates of return and effective labor are not sufficient to cause unbounded inequality. Only savings rate differences can lead to extreme wealth concentration. Finally, we show that while a flat wealth tax will not eliminate extreme wealth concentration, both a graduated wealth tax and a flat income tax will. |
Keywords: | Piketty, inequality, wealth tax, welfare |
JEL: | D51 H21 H23 H30 P16 |
Date: | 2014–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:byu:byumcl:201410&r=gro |
By: | Khelifi, Atef |
Abstract: | Despite ‘joy of giving models’ have been extensively examined in the literature, the Ramsey growth model has never been explored under the assumption of a direct preference for bequeathing savings that are reinvested. This assumption implies a Utility function depending on both consumption and savings, which may also be motivated as one that captures a direct preference for thriftiness or wealth accumulation arguably involved. The resulting growth model generalizes those accounting for the capitalist spirit as Zou (1994), and shows that the restrictive standard one is perhaps not the actual optimized version of the Solow model. (JEL O41, E21, D91) |
Keywords: | Bequest;Capitalist Spirit;Ramsey Growth model;Savings;Joy-of-giving;Optimal control theory |
JEL: | D0 D91 E0 E00 E21 O41 |
Date: | 2014–11–15 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59751&r=gro |
By: | Stolzenburg, Ulrich |
Abstract: | A panel data set covering 145 countries between 1960 and 2010 has been investigated closely by using models of parameter heterogeneity. The Functional Coefficient Model (FCM) introduced by Cai, Fan and Yao (2000) allows estimated parameters of growth determinants to vary as functions of one or two status variables. As a status variable, coefficients depend on the level of development, measured by initial per capita GDP. In a two-dimensional setting, time is used as an additional status variable. At first, the analysis is restricted to bivariate relationships between growth and only one of its determinants, dependent on one or both status variables in a local estimation. Afterwards, the well-known Solow (1956) model serves as a core setting of control variables, while functional dependence of additional explanatory variables is investigated. While some constraints of this modeling approach have to be kept in mind, functional specifications are a promising tool to investigate growth relationships, as well as their robustness and sensitivity. Finally, a simple derivation of FCM called local mean values provides a suitable way to visualize macroeconomic or demographic development patterns in a descriptive diagram. |
Keywords: | economic growth,cross-country growth regression,functional coefficient model,varying parameter,parameter heterogeneity,kernel regression,panel data,local mean value |
Date: | 2014 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201411&r=gro |
By: | Guido Baldi; Patrick Harms |
Abstract: | The developed economies of Europe and the United States are slowly recovering from the worldwide financial crisis and the debt crisis in the euro area. How will the economic situation of these countries evolve in the future? Will the developed economies experience high rates of productivity and economic growth or will they have to face stagnation for a long period of time? Various famous economists have started a debate about these issues. |
Date: | 2014 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwrup:18en&r=gro |
By: | Kevin S. Nell (Center for Economics and Finance, University of Porto); A.P. Thirlwall (School of Economics, University of Kent) |
Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to explain differences in the productivity of capital across countries taking 84 rich and poor countries over the period 1980-2011, and to test the orthodox neoclassical assumption of diminishing returns to capital. The marginal product of capital is measured as the ratio of the long-run growth of GDP to a country’s investment ratio. Twenty potential determinants are considered using a general-to-specific model selection procedure. Education, government consumption, geography, export growth, openness, political rights and macroeconomic instability turn out to be the most important variables. The data also suggest constant returns to capital, so investment matters for long-run growth. |
Keywords: | new growth theory, investment, productivity of capital |
JEL: | O11 O33 O43 O47 |
Date: | 2014–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:por:cetedp:1405&r=gro |
By: | Iacono, Roberto |
Abstract: | This paper revisits the Dutch disease by analyzing the general equilibrium effects of a resource shock on a dependent economy, both in a static and dynamic setting. The novel aspect of this study is to incorporate two features of the Dutch disease literature that have only been analyzed in isolation from each other: capital accumulation with absorption constraint and productivity growth induced by learning by doing. The conventional result of long-run exchange rate appreciation is maintained in line with the Dutch Disease literature. In addition, a permanent change in the employment shares occurs after the resource windfall, in favor of the non-traded sector and away from the traded sector growth engine of the economy. In other words, in the long-run both of the classic symptoms of the Dutch Disease remain in place. |
Keywords: | Dutch Disease. Foreign Exchange Gift. Endogenous Growth. Resource wealth. |
JEL: | F43 O41 |
Date: | 2014–11–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59684&r=gro |
By: | Musayev, Vusal |
Abstract: | This analysis clarifies the ambiguous results from military spending and economic growth literature where the impact of military expenditure is frequently found to be non-significant or negative. Investigation re-examines effects of military spending on growth by analysing this relationship contingent on initial income per capita using recent advances in panel estimation methods and unique dataset on military expenditure. The findings reveal that while growth falls with higher levels of military spending, the marginal impact of military spending is increasing in initial income levels. In contrast to previous findings from the literature, this increase is consistent across different income groups and type of economies, and monotonic in direction going towards zero for sufficiently higher income level countries. |
Keywords: | Military expenditure; Economic Growth; Contingency |
JEL: | H56 O11 |
Date: | 2013–04 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59783&r=gro |
By: | Ho, Mun (Resources for the Future); Wang, Zhongmin (Resources for the Future) |
Abstract: | This paper has two purposes. The first is to review the emerging literature on green growth, with a focus on the origin and meaning of the concept, as well as the justifications for and criticisms of the concept. The general idea of taking into account the impact of economic growth policies on the environment is not very controversial, but the possibility of simultaneously achieving conventional GDP growth and environmental protection is debated. The second purpose is to consider how China might move on to a green growth path. We summarize a sizable literature that traces China’s rapid economic growth and the associated environmental problems to its unique and fundamental institutions, and discuss the implications of this on how China might grow more sustainably. |
Keywords: | green growth, economic development, environmental protection, China |
Date: | 2014–08–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-14-22&r=gro |