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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Chakraborty, Shankha; Thompson, Jon; Yehoue, Etienne |
| Abstract: | We study the cultural process through which a society inculcates an entrepreneurial spirit. People work for a guaranteed wage or operate a firm whose return depends on business expertise. The latter is culturally acquired, within the family or outside, and people may choose an occupation different from the one they were socialized into. We show that a cultural bias towards safer occupations from colonial and post-colonial policies leads to stagnation where entrepreneurs do not upgrade technology because of their proficiency with existing methods. An aggregate productivity shock can tip this economy towards growth where cultural inertia gives way to technological progress led by established businesses. A human capital shock where existing business expertise is less useful, in contrast, causes growth through the emergence of a new class of entrepreneurs. In either case culture ceases to be destiny. We relate the theory to historical and recent episodes. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, culture, human capital, colonization, growth |
| JEL: | D10 F54 L26 O30 Z10 |
| Date: | 2014–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:56892&r=gro |
| By: | DiMaria, Charles Henri; Peroni, Chiara; Sarracino, Francesco |
| Abstract: | This article is about the link between people’s subjective well-being, defined as an evaluation of one’s own life, and productivity. Our aim is to test the hypothesis that subjective well-being contributes to productivity using a two step approach: first, we establish whether subjective well-being can be a candidate variable to study Total Factor Productivity; second, we assess how much subjective well-being contributes to productivity at aggregate level through efficiency gains. We adopt Data Envelopment Analysis to compute total factor productivity and efficiency indices using European Social Survey and AMECO data for 20 European countries. Results show that subjective well-being is an input and not an output to production. |
| Keywords: | productivity, subjective well-being, TFP, efficiency gains, life satisfaction, economic growth, DEA. |
| JEL: | E23 I31 O47 |
| Date: | 2014–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:56983&r=gro |
| By: | Andrey Shcherbak (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The research project aims to find link between genetic diversity and social change. Although some studies associate certain genes with prosocial behavior, it is hardly to say that any genetic polymorphisms are responsible for social change. We assume that some existing differences in particular genotypes could be explained by extent of ancient urbanization, change in population density and historic pathogen prevalence. The pathogen load might have led to some genetic mutations that in their turn might have caused difference in some allele frequency among regions and populations. Our case study is the use of strong alcohol as factor of European colonization in America, Africa and Eurasia. Historically, alcohol was one of the major trade items between Europeans and indigenous populations. I argue that there is a positive correlation between probability of being colonized by Europeans and particular allele frequency responsible for metabolism of alcohol. The risk of colonization by European powers is higher for indigenous populations which had genotype with lower allele frequencies which could ’protect’ them against alcohol abuse. I test this hypothesis using binary logistic regression. The dependent variable is the binomial variable which is coded colonization1900 of a given native population by Europeans from the 1500s to 1900. The unit of analysis is not a state, but a population. Independent variable is allele frequencies of Arg48His polymorphism among 56 populations from Africa, Asia and America. The suggested causal mechanism is uneven trade: the exchange of alcohol for local goods was unfavorable for indigenous populations. Economic dependence was followed by colonization. |
| Keywords: | genetic diversity, colonization, alcohol, urbanization |
| JEL: | I15 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:45/soc/2014&r=gro |
| By: | Epstein, Brendan (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Kimball, Miles S. (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | We develop a theory that focuses on the general equilibrium and long-run macroeconomic consequences of trends in job utility. Given secular increases in job utility, work hours per capita can remain approximately constant over time even if the income effect of higher wages on labor supply exceeds the substitution effect. In addition, secular improvements in job utility can be substantial relative to welfare gains from ordinary technological progress. These two implications are connected by an equation flowing from optimal hours choices: improvements in job utility that have a significant effect on labor supply tend to have large welfare effects. |
| Keywords: | Labor supply; work hours; drudgery; income effect; substitution effect; job utility |
| JEL: | E24 J22 O40 |
| Date: | 2014–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1106&r=gro |
| By: | Theodore R. Breton |
| Abstract: | I use a dynamic augmented Solow model to estimate the effects of students’ test scores and investment in schooling on economic growth rates in 49 countries during 1985-2005. In the complete data set, either average test scores or investment in schooling explain economic growth rates, and more of either causes growth. Further analysis reveals that higher test scores only raised growth rates in countries with low average levels of schooling. In countries with more than 7.5 years of schooling attainment in 1985, more investment in schooling raised growth rates, but higher average test scores did not. |
| Keywords: | Education Expenditures; Human Capital; Test Scores; Economic Growth |
| JEL: | O41 I25 |
| Date: | 2013–11–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:011832&r=gro |
| By: | Stephen Chaudoin; Zachary Peskowitz; Christopher Stanton |
| Abstract: | There is tremendous variation in conflict intensity both across and within civil conflict spells. Using an instrumental variables approach and a rich set of dynamic, empirical models, we find that the intensity of conflict is negatively related to per-capita income. Economic conditions also affect conflict dynamics, as higher per-capita income reduces the persistence of past conflict intensity. |
| JEL: | C23 D74 N40 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20258&r=gro |
| By: | Ohlsson, Henry (Department of Economics); Roine, Jesper (Stockholm School of Economics); Waldenström, Daniel (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Inherited wealth has attracted much attention recently, much due to the research by Thomas Piketty (Piketty, 2011; 2014). The discussion has mainly revolved around a long-run contrast between Europe and the U.S., even though data on explicit historical inheritance flows are only really available for France and to some extent for the U.K. We study the long-run evolution of inherited wealth in Sweden over the past two hundred years. The trends in Sweden are similar to those in France and the U.K: beginning at a high level in the nineteenth century, falling sharply in the interwar era and staying low thereafter, but tending to increase in recent years. The levels, however, differ greatly. The Swedish flows were only half of those in France and the U.K. before 1900 and also much lower after 1980. The main reason for the low levels in the nineteenth century is that the capital-income ratio is much lower than in “Old Europe”. In fact, the Swedish capital-income ratio was similar to that in the U.S., but the savings and growth rates were much lower in Sweden than in the U.S. Rapid income growth following industrialization and increasing savings rates were also important factors behind the development of the capital-income ratio and the inheritance flow during the twentieth century. The recent differences in inheritance flows have several potential explanations related to the Swedish welfare state and pension system. Sweden was “un-European” during the nineteenth century because the country was so poor, Sweden is “un-European” today because so much wealth formation has taken place within the welfare state and the occupational pension systems. |
| Keywords: | Inheritance; Capital accumulation; Inverse mortality multiplier |
| JEL: | D30 J10 N10 |
| Date: | 2014–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1033&r=gro |
| By: | Stefan Dercon |
| Abstract: | With serious impacts of climate change looming in a few decades, but current poverty still high in the developing world, we ask how to spend development aid earmarked for the poor. Poverty reduction tends to be strongly linked to economic growth, but growth impacts the environment and increases CO2 emissions. So can greener growth that is more climate-resilient and less environmentally damaging deliver large scale poverty reduction? Can aid be used for effective poverty reduction now without affecting carbon emissions substantially? We argue that there are bound to be trade-offs between emissions reductions and a greener growth on the one hand, and growth that is most effective in poverty reduction. We argue that development aid, earmarked for the poorest countries, should only selectively pay attention to climate change, and remain focused on fighting current poverty reduction, including via economic growth, not least as future resilience of these countries and their population will depend on their ability to create wealth and build up human capital now. The only use for development aid within the poorest countries for explicit climate-related investment ought to be when the investments also contribute to poverty reduction now, including for increasing resilience to current impacts of environmental shocks, or when the investments done now have serious intertemporal ‘lock-in’ problems so that they have implications also for when climate change bites by 2050. In our conclusions, we offer a series of concrete principles to judge development spending. |
| Keywords: | Green growth, poverty, environmental externalities |
| JEL: | O44 Q01 Q54 F35 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2014-24&r=gro |
| By: | Cuberes, David; Tamura, Robert |
| Abstract: | We present a general equilibrium dynamic model that characterizes the gap between optimal and equilibrium fertility and investment in human capital. In the model, the aggregate production function exhibits increasing returns to population arising from specialization but households face the standard quantity-quality trade-off when deciding how many children they have and how much education these children receive. In the benchmark model, we solve for the equilibrium and optimal levels of fertility and investment per child and show that competitive fertility is too low and investment per child too high. We next introduce mortality of young adults in the model and assume that households have a precautionary demand for children. Human capital investment raises the likelihood that a child survives to the next generation. In this setup, the model endogenously generates a demographic transition but, since households do not internalize the positive effects of a larger population on productivity and the negative effects of human capital on mortality, both the industrial revolution and the demographic transition take place much later than it would have been optimal. Our model can be interpreted as a bridge between the literature on endogenous demographic transitions and papers that study welfare issues associated with fertility and human capital decisions. |
| Keywords: | increasing returns to population, endogenous fertility, endogenous mortality |
| JEL: | J1 J24 O1 |
| Date: | 2014–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57063&r=gro |
| By: | Verena Halsmayer |
| Abstract: | Combining concrete policy-oriented modeling strategies of World War II with what was received as traditional neoclassical theory, in 1956 Robert Solow constructed a simple, clean, and smooth-functioning “design” model that served many different purposes. As a working object it enabled experimentation with long-run equilibrium growth. As an instrument of measurement it was applied to time series data. As a prototype it was supposed to feed into larger-scale econometric models that were, in turn, thought of as technologies for policy advice. Used as a teaching device, Solow’s design became a medium of “spreading the technique,” and one of the symbols for neoclassical macroeconomics that soon became associated with MIT. |
| Keywords: | model, modeling, Robert Solow, growth theory, growth, neoclassical growth model, linear programming, dynamic programming, design model, Harvard Economic Research Project, Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| JEL: | B22 B23 B31 B40 O4 Z1 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hec:heccee:2014-9&r=gro |
| By: | Giorgio Fabbri (EPEE, Université d’Evry-Val-d’Essonne (TEPP, FR-CNRS 3126)) |
| Abstract: | We introduce an AK spatial growth model with a general geographical structure. The dynamics of the economy is described by a partial differential equation on a Riemannian manifold. The morphology interacts with the spatial dynamics of the capital and is one determinant of the qualitative behavior of the economy. We characterize on the geographical structure the conditions that guarantee, in the long run, the convergence of the detrended capital across locations and those inducing spatial capital agglomeration |
| Keywords: | Dynamical spatial model, growth, agglomeration, convergence, infinite dimensional optimal control problems, Riemannian manifolds |
| JEL: | R1 O4 C61 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eve:wpaper:14-05&r=gro |
| By: | Cristina Jude (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR7322 - Université d'Orléans, Facultatea de Litere - Faculté des lettres - Universitatea Babeş-Bolyai, Cluj-Napoca); Grégory Levieuge (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR7322 - Université d'Orléans) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of FDI on economic growth conditional on the institutional quality of host countries. We consider institutional heterogeneity to be an explanation for the mixed results of previous empirical studies and we develop several arguments to show that institutional quality modulates the intensity of FDI impact on growth. Using a comprehensive data set for institutional quality, we test this hypothesis on a sample of 94 developing countries over the period 1984-2009. The use of Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) allows us to identify both the heterogeneity and the threshold of institutional quality that influence the FDI growth effect. These results have significant implications for policy sequencing in developing countries. In order to benefit from FDI-led growth, the improvement of the institutional framework should precede FDI attraction policies. While some features of institutional quality have an immediate effect on fostering FDI-led growth, others need a consistent accumulation of efforts, therefore challenging the effectiveness of institutional reforms in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | FDI ; growth ; heterogeneity ; institutional quality ; PSTR ; Developing economies |
| Date: | 2014–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01014404&r=gro |
| By: | Stefan Dercon; Douglas Gollin |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is the largest sector in most sub-Saharan economies in terms of employment, and it plays an important role in supplying food and export earnings. Rural poverty rates remain high, and labor productivity is strikingly low. This paper asks how these factors shape the role of agriculture in African development strategies. Is agricultural growth a prerequisite for growth in other sectors? Or will urbanization and non-agricultural export markets ultimately be the forces that pull the rural economy into higher productivity? We argue that agricultural development strategies will vary widely because of heterogeneity across and within countries. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, structural transformation, sub-Saharan Africa, rural development |
| JEL: | O10 O13 O55 Q1 Q18 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2014-22&r=gro |
| By: | David Neumark; Jennifer Muz |
| Abstract: | “Business climate indexes” characterize state economic policies, and are often used to try to influence economic policy debate. However, they are also useful in research as summaries of a large number of state policies that cannot be studied simultaneously. Prior research found that business climate indexes focused on productivity and quality of life do not predict economic growth, while indexes emphasizing taxes and costs of doing business indicate that low-tax, low-cost states have faster growth of employment, wages, and output. In this paper, we study the relationship between these two categories of business climate indexes and the promotion of equality or inequality. We do not find that the productivity/quality-of-life indexes predict more equitable outcomes, although some of the policies underlying them suggest they might. We do find, however, that the same tax-and-cost related indexes that are associated with higher economic growth are also associated with increases in inequality. |
| JEL: | H71 J38 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20260&r=gro |
| By: | David Rosnick; Mark Weisbrot |
| Abstract: | Latin America's economic growth rebound in the 2000s is often attributed to a “commodities boom,” which implies that the region’s growth was stimulated by sizable increases in the price of commodity exports. This paper looks at whether the data support such a conclusion. It finds that there is no statistically significant relationship between the increase in the terms of trade (TOT) for Latin American countries and their GDP growth. There is, however, a positive relationship between the TOT increase and an improvement in the current account balance. It may be that this allowed countries to avoid balance of payments crises or constraints. |
| Keywords: | latin america, terms of trade, commodities boom |
| JEL: | E E0 F F1 F13 F17 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epo:papers:2014-09&r=gro |
| By: | Braunfels, Elias (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence for the mutually reinforcing relation of political and economic institutions. To overcome problems of endogeneity I utilize lag instruments within a GMM framework for dynamic panel data. Employing recently developed tests, I show that limiting the number of lag instruments and collapsing the instrument matrix eliminates many and weak instrument biases. My major findings are that (i) improving economic institutions has a large positive effect on future political institutions, and (ii) political institutions have a positive but quantitatively smaller eect on current economic institutions. In addition, (iii) political instability positively affects future political institutions. In line with predictions from the institutional literature, the timing of effects is such that political institutions depend on lags of explanatory variables, while economic institutions are contemporaneously determined. Moreover, results are driven by countries with initially low political institutions implying that in these countries, much is to be gained from institutional reform. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy; Economic Institutions. |
| JEL: | O10 P16 |
| Date: | 2014–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2014_019&r=gro |
| By: | Daniel Ayalew Ali; Matthew Collin; Klaus Deininger; Stefan Dercon; Justin Sandefur; Andrew Zeitlin |
| Abstract: | We report on a randomized field experiment using price incentives to address both economic and gender inequality in land tenure formalization. During the 1990s and 2000s, nearly two dozen African countries proposed de jure land reforms extending access to formal, freehold land tenure to millions of poor households. Many of these reforms stalled. Titled land remains the de facto preserve of wealthy households and, within households, men. Beginning in 2010, we tested whether price instruments alone can generate greater inclusion by offering formal titles to residents of a low-income, unplanned settlement in Dar es Salaam at a range of subsidized prices, as well as additional price incentives to include women as owners or co-owners of household land. Estimated price elasticities of demand confirm that prices – rather than other implementation failures or features of the titling regime – are a key obstacle to broader inclusion in the land registry, and that some degree of pro-poor price discrimination is justified even from a narrow budgetary perspective. In terms of gender inequality, we find that even small price incentives for female co-titling achieve almost complete gender parity in land ownership with no reduction in demand. |
| Keywords: | land titling, formalization, gender, field experiment, Tanzania |
| JEL: | J16 K11 O12 O18 Q15 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2014-23&r=gro |
| By: | Nanthakumar, Loganathan; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Taha, Roshaiza |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how carbon taxation and economic growth affect environment hazards in Malaysia using time series data over the period of 1974-2010. We applied cointegration and causality approaches to determine long term and the direction of causal relationship between these variables. Based on the results, we found the cointegration relationship between the variables. Furthermore, we noted that Kuznets’ theory i.e. inverted-U shaped curve between economic growth and CO2 emissions is valid for Malaysia but the carbon taxation policy is ineffective to control CO2 emissions. The causality analysis revealed that there is bidirectional relationship is found between carbon tax and CO2 emissions. Economic growth Granger causes CO2 emissions and carbon tax is Granger cause of economic growth. To enhance the awareness on pollution issues governments should rely on alternative instruments, which may give benefit not only to taxpayers but also to reduce pollution, which is the pivotal issue to be tackle globally. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, environment hazards |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2014–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:56843&r=gro |
| By: | Philip Cross |
| Abstract: | Canadian provinces have parted ways when it comes to their share of public- versus private-sector investment, according to a new C.D. Howe Institute report. In “The Public Purse versus Private Wallets: Comparing Provincial Approaches to Investing in Economic Growth,” author Philip Cross, former Chief Economic Analyst at Statistics Canada and C.D. Howe Institute Research Fellow, exposes what is driving investment in each province: business or government. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth and Innovation, Electricity |
| JEL: | I28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdh:ebrief:178&r=gro |
| By: | Theodore R. Breton |
| Abstract: | In 1960 Theodore Schultz expounded a human capital theory of economic growth that includes three elements: 1) Countries without much human capital cannot manage physical capital effectively, 2) Economic growth can only proceed if physical capital and human capital rise together, and 3) Human capital is the factor most likely to limit growth. I specify Schultz’s theory mathematically and test it in periods when global financial capital was highly mobile. I find that in 1870, 1910, and 2000, the average schooling attainment of the adult population largely determined the stock of physical capital/capita and GDP/capita in 42 market economies. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital, Schooling, Capital Investment, Economic Growth, Solow Model, Market Economies |
| JEL: | E13 I21 O11 O15 O41 |
| Date: | 2014–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:011834&r=gro |
| By: | Stefan Bauernschuster; Oliver Falck |
| Abstract: | We document the spatial diffusion of Friedrich Froebel's radical invention of kindergartens in 19th-century Germany. The first kindergarten was founded at Froebel's birthplace. Early spatial diffusion can be explained by cultural proximity, measured by historical dialect similarity, to Froebel's birthplace. This result is robust to the inclusion of higher order polynomials in geographic distance and similarity measures with respect to industry, geography or religion. Our findings suggest that a common cultural basis facilitates the spill-over of ideas. We further show that the contemporaneous spatial pattern of child care coverage is still correlated with cultural similarity to Froebel's place of birth. |
| Keywords: | Culture, spatial diffusion, public child care |
| JEL: | N33 J13 Z13 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp659&r=gro |
| By: | Lucas Bretschger; Alexandra Vinogradova |
| Abstract: | We analyze an endogenously growing economy in which production generates greenhouse gas emissions leading to global temperature increase. Global warming causes stochastic climate shocks, modeled by the Poisson process, which destroy part of the economy's capital stock. Part of the output may be devoted to emissions abatement and thus damages from climate shocks may be reduced. We solve the model in closed form and show that the optimal path is characterized by a constant growth rate of consumption and capital stock until a shock arrives, triggering a downward jump in both variables. The magnitude of the jump depends on the Poisson arrival rate, abatement efficiency, damage intensity, and the elasticity of intertemporal consumption substitution. Optimum mitigation policy consists of spending a constant share of output on abatement, which is an increasing function of the Poisson arrival rate, the economy's productivity, polluting intensity of output, and the intensity of environmental damage. Optimum growth and abatement react sharply to changes in the arrival rate and the damage intensity, suggesting more stringent climate policies for a realistic world with uncertainty compared to the certainty-equivalent case. We extend the baseline model by adding climate-induced fluctuations around the growth trend and stock pollution effects, showing the robustness of our results. |
| Keywords: | climate policy, uncertainty, natural disasters, endogenous growth |
| JEL: | O10 Q52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2014–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eus:ce3swp:0214&r=gro |
| By: | Hayat, Arshad |
| Abstract: | In the paper, I explored links between inflow of FDI, natural resource abundance and economic growth. Natural resource abundance is considered to slow down the economic growth. The paper explores if the natural resource abundance reduce the FDI induced growth in the host country. Using panel data for a sample of 106 countries for the period 1993-2012, the paper conclude FDI inflow accelerates economic growth of the host country. However, the presence of natural resources slows down the FDI induced growth. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, Natural Resources, Resource Curse, Hausman Test |
| JEL: | F23 F43 O4 Q0 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57021&r=gro |
| By: | Katsushi S. Imai; Raghav Gaiha |
| Abstract: | Abstract Drawing upon a cross-country panel data for developing countries, the present study sheds new empirical light on dynamic and long-term linkages among growth, inequality and poverty. First, agricultural sector growth is found to be consistently the most important factor in reducing inequality and poverty not only through its direct effects but also through its indirect effects. Second, there is a significant and negative association between inequality and GDP per capita, with macro institutional quality as one of the important factors in determining the inequality-growth relationship. Third, policies designed to prevent conflicts and mitigate their disruptive effects and violence, stabilise commodity prices, and enhance institutional quality would help eliminate worst forms of deprivation. Our analysis points to a drastic shift away from rural- urban migration and urbanisation as main drivers of growth and elimination of extreme poverty, and towards revival of agriculture in the post-2015 policy discourse. Indeed, the case for urbanisation rests on not just shaky empirical foundations but could mislead policy makers and donors. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwp:bwppap:19814&r=gro |
| By: | Minh Son Le; Duc Tho Nguyen; Tarlok Singh |
| Keywords: | Growth elasticity of poverty, economic growth, pro-poor growth, poverty, province, Vietnam. |
| JEL: | O10 O40 I30 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gri:epaper:economics:201401&r=gro |