nep-gro New Economics Papers
on Economic Growth
Issue of 2013‒12‒29
29 papers chosen by
Marc Patrick Brag Klemp
University of Copenhagen

  1. Cyclical macroeconomic policy, financial regulation and economic growth By Philippe Aghion; Enisse Kharroubi
  2. Culture and Institutions By Alberto Alesina; Paola Giuliano
  3. Does Religion Affect Economic Growth and Happiness? Evidence from Ramadan By Filipe R. Campante; David H. Yanagizawa-Drott
  4. Buy, Keep or Sell: Economic Growth and the Market for Ideas By Ufuk Akcigit; Murat Alp Celik; Jeremy Greenwood
  5. Limited self-control and long-run growth By Strulik, Holger
  6. Regional income inequality in Italy in the long run (1871–2001). Patterns and determinants By Emanuele Felice
  7. Persistent effects of empires: Evidence from the partitions of Poland By Grosfeld, Irena; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
  8. A World of Cities: The Causes and Consequences of Urbanization in Poorer Countries By Edward L. Glaeser
  9. Volatility and Growth: Governments are Key By Jetter, Michael
  10. Crime and growth convergence : evidence from Mexico By Enamorado, Ted; Lopez-Calva, Luis F.; Rodriguez-Castelan, Carlos
  11. Growth is (really) good for the (really) rich By Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M.; Chavez, Emmanuel; Esquivel, Gerardo
  12. Has urban economic growth in Post-Reform India been pro-poor between 1993-94 and 2009-10? By Tripathi, Sabyasachi
  13. Intergenerational Mobility and the Informative Content of Surnames By Guell, Maia; Mora, Jose V. Rodriguez; Telmer, Christopher I.
  14. Growth and inequality in public good games By Tsakas E.; Gaechter S.; Mengel F.; Vostroknutov A.
  15. Relationship between trade openness and economic growth of India: A time series analysis By Monojit, Chatterji; Sushil, Mohan; Sayantan Ghosh, Dastidar
  16. The Real Income Shares of Labor, Human and Physical Capital from Micro- and Macro-Data By Peter E.J. Steffen
  17. How do technical change and technological distance influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient? By Roger, Perman; Jean-Philippe, Boussemart; Walter, Briec; Christophe, Tavéra
  18. Bank Deregulation, Competition and Economic Growth: The US Free Banking Experience By Philipp Ager; Fabrizio Spargoli
  19. Development Accounting Within Intermediate Goods By Jan, Grobovsek
  20. Budget Policy and Economic Growth By Georgy Idrisov; Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev
  21. Development, progress and economic growth By Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos
  22. Two Africas? Why Africa’s ‘Growth Miracle’ is barely reducing poverty By Paul Mosley
  23. Is Europe growing together or growing apart? By Crowley, Patrick; Garcia, Enrique; Quah , Chee-Heong
  24. Financial Development and Economic Growth: Known Knowns, Known Unknowns, and Unknown Unknowns By Ugo Panizza
  25. Political Ideology and Economic Growth: Evidence from the French Democracy By François Facchini; Mickaël Melki
  26. Population Ageing and Productivity: Implications and Policy Options for New Zealand By Ross Guest
  27. Green Growth and Poverty Reduction: Policy Coherence for Pro-poor Growth By Michael King
  28. New Econometric Estimates of Long-term Growth Effects of Different Areas of Public Spending By Omar Barbiero; Boris Cournède
  29. This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth By Markus Eberhardt; Andrea Filippo Presbitero

  1. By: Philippe Aghion; Enisse Kharroubi
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of cyclical macroeconomic policy and financial sector characteristics on growth. Using cross-country, cross-industry OECD data, it yields two main findings. First, countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies foster growth disproportionately in more credit/liquidity-constrained industries. Second, while higher bank capital ratios may contribute to reducing the benefit of a countercyclical monetary policy, countercyclical credit enhances growth disproportionately in more credit/liquidity-constrained industries and this complements the growth effects of countercyclical monetary policy. Raising regulatory requirements for bank capital can therefore help achieve financial stability and preserve economic growth if complemented with more countercyclical macroeconomic and regulatory policy.
    Keywords: Growth, financial constraints, fiscal policy, monetary policy, financial regulation
    Date: 2013–12
  2. By: Alberto Alesina; Paola Giuliano
    Abstract: A growing body of new empirical work has measured different types of cultural traits, showing that culture matters for a variety of economic outcomes. This paper focuses on one specific aspect of the relevance of culture: its relationship with institutions. Evidence from theoretical, empirical, and historical examples is reviewed to critically asses the presence of a two-way causal effect between culture and institutions.
    JEL: P16 Z1
    Date: 2013–12
  3. By: Filipe R. Campante; David H. Yanagizawa-Drott
    Abstract: We study the economic effects of religious practices in the context of the observance of Ramadan fasting, one of the central tenets of Islam. To establish causality, we exploit variation in the length of the fasting period due to the rotating Islamic calendar. We report two key, quantitatively meaningful results: 1) longer Ramadan fasting has a negative effect on output growth in Muslim countries, and 2) it increases subjective well-being among Muslims. We then examine labor market outcomes, and find that these results cannot be primarily explained by a direct reduction in labor productivity due to fasting. Instead, the evidence indicates that Ramadan affects Muslims' relative preferences regarding work and religiosity, suggesting that the mechanism operates at least partly by changing beliefs and values that influence labor supply and occupational choices beyond the month of Ramadan itself. Together, our results indicate that religious practices can affect labor supply choices in ways that have negative implications for economic performance, but that nevertheless increase subjective well-being among followers.
    JEL: E20 J20 O40 O43 Z12
    Date: 2013–12
  4. By: Ufuk Akcigit (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania); Murat Alp Celik (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania); Jeremy Greenwood (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: An endogenous growth model is developed where each period firms invest in researching and developing new ideas. An idea increases a firm's productivity. By how much depends on how central the idea is to a firm's activity. Ideas can be bought and sold on a market for patents. A firm can sell an idea that is not relevant to its business or buy one if it fails to innovate. The developed model is matched up with stylized facts about the market for patents in the U.S. The analysis attempts to gauge how efficiency in the patent market affects growth.
    Keywords: Growth, Ideas, Innovation, Misallocation, Patents, Patent Agents, Research and Development, Search frictions
    JEL: O31 O41
    Date: 2013–12–12
  5. By: Strulik, Holger
    Abstract: This paper integrates imperfect self-control into the standard model of endogenous growth. Individuals are conceptualized as dual-selves consisting of a long-run planner and a short-run doer. The long-run self can partly control the short-run self´s strife for immediate gratification. It is shown that the solution is structurally equivalent to the one of the standard endogenous growth model as long as self-control is sufficiently strong. Within a certain range of self-control an investment subsidy can be useful in order to reduce consumption and to increase investment, growth, and welfare of the long-run self. A consumption tax, perhaps surprisingly, is counterproductive. It induces individuals with limited self-control to consume even more. --
    Keywords: temptation,self-control,consumption,investment,endogenous growth
    JEL: D91 E21 O40
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Emanuele Felice (Departament d'Economia i d'Història Econòmica, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
    Abstract: The chapter presents up-to-date estimates of Italy’s regional GDP, with the present borders, in ten-year benchmarks from 1871 to 2001, and proposes a new interpretative hypothesis based on long-lasting socio-institutional differences. The inverted U-shape of income inequality is confirmed: rising divergence until the midtwentieth century, then convergence. However, the latter was limited to the centrenorth: Italy was divided into three parts by the time regional inequality peaked, in 1951, and appears to have been split into two halves by 2001. As a consequence of the falling back of the south, from 1871 to 2001 we record s-divergence across Italy’s regions, i.e. an increase in dispersion, and sluggish ß-convergence. Geographical factors and the market size played a minor role: against them are both the evidence that most of the differences in GDP are due to employment rather than to productivity and the observed GDP patterns of many regions. The gradual converging of regional GDPs towards two equilibria instead follows social and institutional differences - in the political and economic institutions and in the levels of human and social capital - which originated in pre-unification states and did not die (but in part even increased) in postunification Italy.
    Keywords: Italy, regional convergence, long-run economic growth, geography, institutions
    JEL: O11 O18 O52 N13 N14
    Date: 2013–12
  7. By: Grosfeld, Irena; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
    Abstract: Using spatial RD, we test the persistence of historical partition of Poland among three empires—Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Prussia. The formerly Prussian lands compared with the Russian lands have better infrastructure built during industrialization, resulting in higher support for anticommunist parties. The population of the Austrian compared with Russian lands believes in democracy more because of Austrian decentralized governance. People in the Russian territories are less religious than in the other two empires due to Russian imperial policies undermining trust in the Catholic Church. Both liberals and religious conservatives find higher support in the Austrian compared to the Russian lands.
    Date: 2013–12
  8. By: Edward L. Glaeser
    Abstract: Historically, urban growth required enough development to grow and transport significant agricultural surpluses or a government effective enough to build an empire. But there has been an explosion of poor mega-cities over the last thirty years. A simple urban model illustrates that in closed economies, agricultural prosperity leads to more urbanization but that in an open economy, urbanization increases with agricultural desperation. The challenge of developing world mega-cities is that poverty and weak governance reduce the ability to address the negative externalities that come with density. This paper models the connection between urban size and institutional failure, and shows that urban anonymity causes institutions to break down. For large cities with weak governments, draconian policies may be the only way to curb negative externalities, suggesting a painful tradeoff between dictatorship and disorder. A simple model suggests that private provision of infrastructure to reduce negative externalities is less costly when city populations are low or institutions are strong, but that public provision can cost less in bigger cities.
    JEL: R0
    Date: 2013–12
  9. By: Jetter, Michael (Universidad EAFIT)
    Abstract: There exists a persistent disagreement in the literature over the effect of business cycles on economic growth. This paper offers a solution to this disagreement, suggesting that volatility carries a positive direct effect, but also a negative indirect effect, operating through the insurance mechanism of government size. Theoretically, the net growth effect of volatility is then ambiguous. The paper reveals the underlying endogeneity of government size in a balanced panel of 95 countries from 1961 - 2010. In practice, the negative indirect channel dominates in democracies, but with less power to choose public services in autocratic regimes the positive direct effect takes over. Consequently, volatile growth rates are detrimental to growth in democracies, but beneficial to growth in autocracies. The empirical results suggest that a one standard deviation increase of volatility lowers growth by up to 0.57 percentage points in a democracy, but raises growth by 1.74 percentage points in a total autocracy. These findings point to a crucial intermediating role of governments in the relationship between volatility and growth. Both the size of the public sector and the regime form assume key roles.
    Keywords: economic growth, volatility, business cycles, government size, regime form
    JEL: E32 H11 O43 P16
    Date: 2013–12
  10. By: Enamorado, Ted; Lopez-Calva, Luis F.; Rodriguez-Castelan, Carlos
    Abstract: Scholars have often argued that crime deters growth, but the empirical literature assessing such effect is scarce. By exploiting cross-municipality income and crime data for Mexico -- a country that experienced a high increase in crime rates over the past decade -- this study circumvents two of the most common problems faced by researchers in this area. These are: (i) the lack of a homogenous, consistently comparable measure of crime and (ii) the small sample problem in the estimation. Combining income data from poverty maps, administrative records on crime and violence, and public expenditures data at the municipal level for Mexico (2005-2010), the analysis finds evidence indicating that drug-related crimes indeed deter growth. It also finds no evidence of a negative effect on growth from crimes unrelated to drug trafficking.
    Keywords: Crime and Society,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Achieving Shared Growth,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Corruption&Anticorruption Law
    Date: 2013–12–01
  11. By: Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M.; Chavez, Emmanuel; Esquivel, Gerardo
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between mean income and the income of the rich. Our methodology closely follows that of Dollar and Kraay (2002), but instead of looking at the bottom of the distribution, we analyze the top. We use panel data from the World Top Incomes database, which collects top income data from several countries using tax returns as the raw source. We define the “rich” as earners in the top 10 percent, 1 percent, 0.1 percent, and 0.01 percent of the income distribution. We find that economic growth is good for the rich in the sense that the mean income of the top decile of the distribution grows in the same proportion as that of the whole population. However, we also find that the income of earners in the top percentile of the distribution and above grows in an even larger proportion than average income: that is, economic growth is really good for the really rich. We also find that during economic downturns, the average income of top earners responds proportionally less to changes in mean income than during economic expansions. Our results are robust to different sample specifications.
    Keywords: Growth, Income distribution; Inequality; Top Income; Rich.
    JEL: D31 D63 E01 I30 O40
    Date: 2013–12
  12. By: Tripathi, Sabyasachi
    Abstract: This paper empirically tests whether urban economic growth has been pro-poor in the post reform India. The study uses data from the three rounds of quinquennial household survey of urban monthly per capita consumer expenditure (MPCE) carried out by National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) in 1993-94, 2004-05, and 2009-10. To empirically measure the propoorness of urban economic growth, this paper uses the framework developed by Duclos (2004) and also follows the methodological approach of Araar, Duclos, Audet, and Makdissi (2007, 2009). The study finds strong statistical evidence that India‘s urban economic growth has been absolutely pro-poor but relatively anti-poor between periods 1993-94 - 2004-05, 2004-05 - 2009- 10, and 1993-94 - 2009-10. The results indicate that more effective distributive policies are urgently required for urban poverty reduction in India.
    Keywords: Pro-poor Growth, Poverty, Inequality, Urban India
    JEL: D63 D64 R11
    Date: 2013–12
  13. By: Guell, Maia; Mora, Jose V. Rodriguez; Telmer, Christopher I.
    Abstract: We propose a new methodology for measuring intergenerational mobility in economic wellbeing. Our method is based on the joint distribution of surnames and economic outcomes. It circumvents the need for intergenerational panel data, a long-standing stumbling block for understanding mobility. A single cross-sectional dataset is su cient. Our main idea is simple. If `inheritance' is important for economic outcomes, then rare surnames should predict economic outcomes in the cross-section. This is because rare surnames are indicative of familial linkages. Of course, if the number of rare surnames is small, this won't work. But rare surnames are abundant in the highly-skewed nature of surname distributions from most Western societies. We develop a model that articulates this idea and shows that the more important is inheritance, the more informative will be surnames. This result is robust to a variety of di erent assumptions about fertility and mating. We apply our method using the 2001 census from Catalonia, a large region of Spain. We use educational attainment as a proxy for overall economic well-being. Our main nding is that mobility has decreased among the di erent generations of the 20th century. A complementary analysis based on sibling correlations con rms our results and provides a robustness check on our method. Our model and our data allow us to examine one possible explanation for the observed decrease in mobility. We nd that the degree of assortative mating has increased over time. Overall, we argue that our method has promise because it can tap the vast mines of census data that are available in a heretofore unexploited manner.
    Keywords: Surnames, intergenerational mobility, cross-sectional data analysis, population genetics, assortative mating, siblings,
    Date: 2013
  14. By: Tsakas E.; Gaechter S.; Mengel F.; Vostroknutov A. (GSBE)
    Abstract: In a novel experimental design we study dynamic public good games in which wealth is allowed to accumulate. More precisely each agents income at the end of a period serves as her endowment in the following period. In this setting growth and inequality arise endogenously allowing us to address new questions regarding their interplay and effect on cooperation levels. We find that average cooperation levels in this setting are high between 20-60 of endowments and that amounts contributed do not decline over time. Introducing the possibility of punishment leads to lower group income, but less inequality within groups. In both treatments with and w/o punishment inequality and group income are positively correlated for poor groups with below median income, but negatively correlated for rich groups with above median income. There is very strong path dependence inequality in early periods is strongly negatively correlated with group income in later periods. These results give new insights into why people cooperate and should make us rethink previous results from the literature on repeated public good games regarding the decay of cooperation in the absence of punishment.
    Date: 2013
  15. By: Monojit, Chatterji; Sushil, Mohan; Sayantan Ghosh, Dastidar
    Abstract: The paper aims to examine the empirical relationship between trade openness and economic growth of India for the time period 1970-2010. Trade openness is a multi-dimensional concept and hence measures of both trade barriers and trade volumes have been used as proxies for openness. The estimation results from Vector Autoregressive method suggest that growth in trade volumes accelerate economic growth in case of India. We do not find any evidence from our analysis that trade barriers lower growth.
    Keywords: Trade openness, economic growth, India, time series analysis,
    Date: 2013
  16. By: Peter E.J. Steffen (Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg))
    Abstract: Micro data are used to separate the wage income of employed workers into components of basic labor and human capital. Further on the wage components of the self employed are determined taking into account their higher qualification and longer working hours. The fractions of these wage components are used to obtain the total income shares of basic labor, human and physical capital from yearly GDP calculations. This procedure provides a yearly information on the development of the factor shares for individual countries, a tool for understanding development and growth. German census data of the years 1976, 1985, 1995, and 2006 are selected in order to demonstrate the method. As result the factor shares for these years are obtained. The average shares are in agreement with the well known results of Mankiw, Romer and Weil [8] if only employed workers are considered. If self-employed labor is also taken into account, the share ratios of physical and human capital and labor change to sK : sH : sL = 0:21 : 0:25 : 0:54. This result diers considerably from the generally expected share ratios for developed countries of 1/3 : 1/3 : 1/3. Further on, the development in time is investigated. A considerable variation is observed in the last period: 1995 - 2006. It is contradictory to a constant behavior as expected from Kaldor's stylized facts. The source could be traced to considerable changes in the qualification structure of the German work force.
    Keywords: human capital, Mikrozensus, annual factor income shares, factor share development
    JEL: D33 E25 J24
    Date: 2013–09
  17. By: Roger, Perman; Jean-Philippe, Boussemart; Walter, Briec; Christophe, Tavéra
    Abstract: How does technical change influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient? Using a nonlinear version of Okun’s Law augmented with technical change and technological distance, we show that the impact of output movements on unemployment variations is influenced by the imitation or innovation origins of technical change
    Keywords: Okun’s Law, Technological frontier, Technical change, Nonlinear model,
    Date: 2013
  18. By: Philipp Ager (University of Southern Denmark); Fabrizio Spargoli (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: We exploit the introduction of free banking laws in US states during the 1837-1863 period to examine the impact of removing barriers to bank entry on bank competition and economic growth. As governments were not concerned about systemic stability in this period, we are able to isolate the effects of bank competition from those of state implicit guarantees. We find that the introduction of free banking laws stimulated the creation of new banks and led to more bank failures. Our empirical evidence indicates that states adopting free banking laws experienced an increase in output per capita compared to the states that retained state bank chartering policies. We argue that the fiercer bank competition following the introduction of free banking laws might have spurred economic growth by (1) increasing the money stock and the availability of credit; (2) leading to efficiency gains in the banking market. Our findings suggest that the more frequent bank failures occurring in a competitive banking market do not harm long-run economic growth in a system without public safety nets.
    Keywords: Bank Deregulation, Bank Competition, Economic Growth, Financial Development, Dynamic Efficiency, Free Banking
    JEL: G18 G21 G28 N21
    Date: 2013–12
  19. By: Jan, Grobovsek
    Abstract: Do intermediate goods help explain relative and aggregate productivity differences across countries? Three observations suggest they do: (i) intermediates are relatively expensive in poor countries; (ii) goods industries demand intermediates more intensively than service industries; (iii) goods industries are more prominent intermediate suppliers in poor countries. I build a standard multi-sector growth model accommodating these features to show that inefficient intermediate production strongly depresses aggregate labor productivity and increases the price ratio of final goods to services. Applying the model to data, low and high income countries in fact reveal similar relative efficiency levels between goods and services despite clear differences in relative sectoral labor productivity. Moreover, the main empirical exercise suggests that poorer countries are substantially less efficient at producing intermediate relative to final goods and services. Closing the cross-country efficiency gap in intermediate input production would strongly narrow the aggregate labor productivity difference across countries as well as turn final goods in poorer countries relatively cheap compared to services.
    Date: 2013
  20. By: Georgy Idrisov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This article examines the relationship between government budgetary policy and the pursuit of accelerated economic growth. The authors review the academic debate over long-term economic growth and associated short-term fluctuations and conclude that Russian budgetary intended to smooth fluctuations in economic activity are of limited effect and that there are no opportunities for increasing public expenditure in the medium and long-term. For these reasons, the structure of expenditures must be changed and budgetary institutions must be transformed with a view to creating the preconditions for economic growth in the long-term.
    Keywords: economic growth, budgetary policy, government expenditure.
    JEL: O23 O4 H5
    Date: 2013
  21. By: Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos
    Abstract: Progress was an idea of the 18th century; development, a project of the 20th century that continues into the 21st century. Progress was associated with the advance of reason, development with the fulfillment of the five political objectives that modern societies set for themselves: security, freedom, economic well-being, social justice and protection of the environment. Today we can view progress and development as equivalent. Both were products of the capitalist revolution, and of the economic development that began with it. Economic development or growth, in its turn, is the process of capital accumulation with the incorporation of technical progress that, mainly through productive sophistication and the increase of the value of labor, increases wages and improves standards of living. The five objectives that define development, as well as the three social instances existing in society change in an interdependent way.
    Date: 2013–12–09
  22. By: Paul Mosley
    Abstract: Abstract India has one of the highest underweight burdens in the world, with signs of rising obesity. Coexistence of underweight and overweight women is symptomatic of the double burden of malnutrition. The present study aims to throw new light on the double burden of malnutrition among Indian women in the age group 22-49 years. The analysis is based on a nationally representative household survey, InAlthough growth has improved substantially in most African countries in recent years, poverty across the continent has fallen very little in the aggregate, even though there have been outstanding performances by some countries. Indeed, some African countries have slipped back, and exhibit higher poverty rates than in 1990. This paper seeks to understand the reasons for this variance between countries; the reasons why, certainly if one uses headcount poverty data, there are ‘two Africas’, one with powerful ability to reduce poverty and one without. We argue that some of the reasons for this difference are rooted in colonial times, and those countries which developed dynamic exports of smallholder cash crops, the ‘peasant export economies’, received a headstart in relation to mineral- and large farm-based economies, because of the more equitable income distribution which labour-intensive, smallholder-based economies generate. However, in the post-colonial period, many peasant export economies wasted this headstart, and some mine/plantation economies were able to transcend the limitation of not having received one. The key reasons for this evolution, we argue, lie in the motivation and ability of African elites to form pro-poor coalitions, which in some cases were then able to implement tax and expenditure policies with the ability to bring a pro-poor pattern of growth into being. This story is tested both econometrically and by means of four contrasted country case studies.dia Human Development Survey, 2005. The results indicate that the factors underlying this burden include socio-economic status (SES), location, marital status, age, education, physical activity, media exposure, and dietary composition and frequency of eating. We find that there is a socio-economic patterning of underweight and overweight women, with a large concentration of underweight women among those with a low SES and of overweight women among high SES. Given that the health implications of being underweight and overweight are grim, it is imperative that there is a simultaneous increase in the focus on the health needs of overweight and obese people and on the needs of the large number of severely undernourished people in society. For Indian women, the glaring health/nutrition disparities are matched only by the grimness of their existence and survival prospects.
    Date: 2013
  23. By: Crowley, Patrick (College of Business, Texas A&M University, Corpus Christi); Garcia, Enrique (Universita Autonoma de Mexico); Quah , Chee-Heong (University of Malaysia)
    Abstract: While it is painfully clear that the ’ever closer’ monetary and financial union in the EU has run into serious trouble there has been very little study of the degree to which the countries have become similar or different in their economic growth dynamics. This paper therefore goes beyond the traditional convergence literature to look at their dynamic convergence and explore the path of their changing similarity in the frequency domain. The results show that while a core group of countries may be developing together, there appears to be at least seven identifiable groups of countries with different growth dynamics. Greece appears to be in a class on its own. Business cycles are important but longer-term trends and higher frequency fluctuations all have a role to play in facilitating adjustment. These results provide awkward implications for policy, particularly for those who thought that simply having a union would draw countries closer together (endogenous OCA criteria).
    Keywords: business cycles; growth cycles; frequency domain; wavelet analysis; cluster analysis; euro area; European Union; optimal currency area
    JEL: C49 E32
    Date: 2013–12–18
  24. By: Ugo Panizza (IHEID, The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)
    Abstract: This paper summarizes the main findings of the literature on the relationship between financial and economic development (the known knowns), points to directions for future research (the known unknowns), and then speculates on the third Rumsfeldian category. The known knowns section organizes the empirical literature on finance and growth into three strands: (i) the traditional literature which established the link between finance and growth; (ii) the new literature which qualified some of the results of the traditional literature; and (iii) the new-new literature which focuses on alternative measures of financial development and on the dark side of finance. The known unknowns section focuses on causality, on the channels through which finance affects growth, and on the dark side of finance. The unknown unknowns section discusses a topic on which we may know less than what we think we know.
    Date: 2013–12–02
  25. By: François Facchini (Université Paris-Sud - Faculté Jean Monnet, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne); Mickaël Melki (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: We provide a test of the impact of voters' political ideology on economic growth and of the role of preferences for government size as a transmission channel. We focus on France from the beginning of its stable democratic experience in 1871. A move of voters' ideology to the right increases economic growth over total observation period. However, the growth effect of ideology is mediated by voters' preferences for government size only during the post-World War II period. For reverse causality concerns, we use the political ideology of other historical democracies as an instrument variable for France's ideology.
    Keywords: Political ideology; economic growth; public spending
    Date: 2013–11
  26. By: Ross Guest (The Treasury)
    Abstract: This paper critically evaluates the effects of population ageing on labour productivity with particular reference to New Zealand. A number of potential long run mechanisms are considered: complementarity of workers by age, age-specific productivity of individuals, new technology discoveries and adoptions, fertility and human capital investments. Potential short run channels include: the ‘second demographic dividend’, changes in industry composition, incentives to seek labour saving technologies. Simulations tentatively suggest that workers could become more complimentary by age which would boost labour productivity. The magnitude of this effect on living standards could entirely offset the projected 12 per cent fall in the support ratio over the next 40 years. The most effective policies for mitigating the national economic burden of ageing are policies to boost labour participation of older workers and to boost immigration.
    Keywords: Population ageing; labour productivity; demographic dividend
    JEL: J11 E20 E62
    Date: 2013–12
  27. By: Michael King
    Abstract: This paper explores the policy coherence for development (PCD) dimensions of green growth strategies pursued by OECD member states. The coherence challenge is to design OECD green growth policies in order to maximise the positive synergies and minimise the negatives effects on pro-poor growth in developing countries. Coherence issues across three cross-cutting themes, climate change, biodiversity and innovation policy, are considered, before a comprehensive set of PCD issues related to agricultural livelihoods, fisheries livelihoods and the energy and minor sectors in developing countries are discussed. In doing so three PCD case studies, Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA), the reform of EU biofuels policy and EU fisheries access, are presented and lessons for the green growth agenda are derived.
    Keywords: intellectual property rights, policy coherence for development, biofuels Policy, Pro-poor Growth, fisheries policy, green growth
    Date: 2013–12–16
  28. By: Omar Barbiero; Boris Cournède
    Abstract: Using panel data for OECD countries, this study investigates the extent to which changes in government spending on education, health and other areas influence long-term growth. The results suggest that, if total government spending is kept unchanged, increasing expenditure on health, education and transport raises long-term GDP growth. In contrast, government spending on housing is found to weaken long-term GDP growth. The error-correction specification used allows assessing adjustment speed which, consistent with intuition, is estimated to be slow. According to the econometric results, it takes more than five years for half of the effect of a change in the structure of government spending to be reflected in longterm growth. Nouvelles évaluations économétriques de l'effet à long terme sur la croissance de différentes catégories de dépense publique Au moyen de données de panel pour les pays de l’OCDE, cette étude examine la manière dont les modifications du niveau des dépenses publiques d’éducation, de santé et dans d’autres domaines influencent la croissance à long terme. Les résultats suggèrent que, pour un niveau donné de dépenses publiques totales, une augmentation des dépenses de santé, d’éducation et de transport augmente la croissance à long terme. À l’inverse, les dépenses publiques de logement semblent affaiblir la croissance à long terme. Le modèle à correction d’erreur employé pour cette étude permet d’évaluer la vitesse d’ajustement qui, conformément à l’intuition, se révèle être lente. D’après les résultats économétriques, il faut compter plus de cinq ans avant que 50% des effets d’un changement de la structure des dépenses publiques ne se fassent sentir dans la croissance à long terme.
    Keywords: government expenditure, public spending, public health spending, economic growth, public education spending, government infrastructure spending, long-term growth, dépenses publiques d’éducation, dépenses publiques d’infrastructure, croissance économique, dépenses publiques de santé, croissance à long terme, dépenses publiques
    JEL: H11 H51 H52
    Date: 2013–12–06
  29. By: Markus Eberhardt (School of Economics, University of Nottingham, UK, Centre for the Study of African Economies, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, UK); Andrea Filippo Presbitero (International Monetary Fund, Universit… Politecnica delle Marche - MoFiR)
    Abstract: We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modelling the debt-growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries. We investigate the issue of nonlinearities ('debt thresholds') in both the cross-country and within-country dimensions, employing novel methods and diagnostics from the time-series literature adapted for use in the panel. We find some support for a nonlinear relationship between debt and long-run growth across countries, but no evidence for a common debt threshold within countries over time.
    Keywords: common factor model, economic growth, nonlinearity, public debt
    JEL: C23 E62 F34 O11
    Date: 2013–12

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