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on German Papers |
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Issue of 2026–10–12
eleven papers chosen by Roberto Cruccolini, Ludwig-Maximilians Universität München |
| By: | Katharina Gangl (Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen); Sebastian J. Goerg (Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen); Florian Ritter (Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen) |
| Abstract: | Die Urlaubsplanung findet 2026 in einem Umfeld statt, das von wirtschaftlicher Stagnation und technologischer Umwälzung geprägt ist. Globale Krisen erhöhen das Unsicherheitsgefühl. Parallel belasten gestiegene Reisepreise und die allgemeine wirtschaftliche Unsicherheit private Reiseentscheidungen. Dies spiegelt sich auch im Reiseverhalten wider: 2025 ging die Zahl der Auslandsreisen um 8, 3 Prozent im Vergleich zum Vorjahr zurück. Gleichzeitig verändern neue Technologien die Art, wie Menschen Informationen suchen und Kaufentscheidungen treffen. Neben Suchmaschinen und Buchungsportalen bieten sich Social Media und KI-Chatbots als Einstiegspunkte bei der Urlaubsplanung an. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht auf Basis einer repräsentativen Befragung, ob und wie sich die Customer Journey verschiebt. Die Autoren gehen darauf ein, welche Bedürfnisse trotz Unsicherheit stabil bleiben, welche Zielgruppen besonders sensibel reagieren und welche Informations- und Vertriebswege 2026 tatsächlich relevant sind. |
| Keywords: | Urlaubsreise, Urlaubsplanung, Reiseentscheidungen, Reisebuchungen, repräsentative Befragung, saisonaler Konsum |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoh:busine:busine-001 |
| By: | Katharina Gangl (Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen); Florian Ritter (Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen) |
| Abstract: | Die Finanzierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung gerät angesichts des demografischen Wandels zunehmend unter Druck. Die von der Bundesregierung eingesetzte Alterssicherungskommission hat daher im Juni 2026 insgesamt 33 Empfehlungen zur Reform der Altersvorsorge vorgestellt. Die Bundesregierung hat angekündigt, das Maßnahmenpaket in allen Punkten umzusetzen. Einige der Kernpunkte waren die Einführung einer neuen Kapitalrente, eine moderate Anhebung der Regelaltersgrenze sowie die Abschaffung der Rente mit 63. Aus Expertenkreisen und Medien kam überwiegend Lob für die Reformvorschläge, es gab aber auch Kritik, beispielsweise am Umfang der Reformen oder an möglichen wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen von steigenden Rentenbeiträgen. In der Politik wurde derweil kontrovers über die Abschaffung der Rente mit 63 diskutiert. Damit stellt sich die Frage, wie die Bevölkerung die Reform wahrnimmt und welche Einzelmaßnahmen unterstützt oder abgelehnt werden. Ebenso ist von Interesse, welche Folgen mögliche höhere individuelle Rentenbeiträge für private Haushalte und den Konsum haben könnten. |
| Keywords: | Rente, Rentenreform, Altersvorsorge, Konsum |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoh:policy:policy-001 |
| By: | Gartner, Hermann (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hellwagner, Timon (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hummel, Markus (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hutter, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Lochner, Benjamin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wanger, Susanne (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Zika, Gerd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "The economy has recently stabilised after years of economic weakness. However, unfavourable trends in the labour market have continued. Employment is also under pressure due to demographic decline. This report provides an outlook until 2027." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Date: | 2026–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202617 |
| By: | Elbert, Ralf; Kajiyama, Ren |
| Date: | 2026–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:162673 |
| By: | Blömer, Maximilian (ifo Institut); Bruckmeier, Kerstin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Fischer, Lilly (ifo Institut); Lange, Theresa (ifo Institut); Sommer, Maximilian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wiemers, Jürgen (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "In September 2025, a Commission on Social Welfare State Reform (KSR) was tasked with submitting a report on how social welfare structures could be modernized and de-bureaucratized - for the benefit of citizens and administrative bodies alike - while maintaining the level of social protection. To support the work of the commission, the ifo Institute and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) conducted a comparative analysis of the effects of two fundamental reform approaches using behavioral microsimulation. The models developed by both institutes provide a detailed representation of the current tax and transfer system at the micro level, making it possible to calculate the impact of alternative policies on net income, benefit entitlements, and work incentives for various types of households. Both analyses are based on data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). This study is an excerpt from the BMAS research report “Mikrosimulation von Reformoptionen steuerfinanzierter Sozialleistungen” - commissioned by the KSR and produced in 2025/26 - and covers the analysis of reform approaches in which the IAB was directly involved. The full research report, along with all detailed results from both institutes documented in separate appendices, has been published by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. From Chapter 2 onwards, the text published here is identical to the corresponding sections of the main report (with the exception of links to the appendices). The introductory “In aller Kürze” section has been newly added. The first reform approach (Reform Approach 1) considers integrating housing benefit (Wohngeld) and the child supplement (Kinderzuschlag) into a reformed basic income support system (Grundsicherung) featuring modified rules on additional earned income under SGB II. The second reform approach (Reform Approach 2) envisages merging housing benefit and the child supplement or replacing them with a new upstream benefit. Benefits under SGB II and SGB XII remain in place but are supplemented by modified rules on additional earned income within SGB II. The two reform approaches and their associated scenarios were specified by the commissioning body and examined across a total of 84 reform variants. The aim of the analyses is not to provide a definitive political assessment of individual proposals, but rather to compare and classify their anticipated effects. In most variants, Reform Approach 1 results in fiscal savings but potentially leaves some of the affected households worse off than under the status quo. Significant positive effects on labour supply can be achieved with this Approach - particularly through differentiated rules for considering income in the means test based on partnership status and the number of children. Under Reform Approach 2, integrating the child supplement into the housing Benefit - while applying a separate benefit withdrawal rate for the child component within the housing Benefit - would likely yield modest fiscal savings alongside moderately positive effects on labour supply. Integrating the child component directly into the housing benefit formula would, according to model calculations, result in additional costs but also somewhat stronger positive impacts on labour supply. Merging the housing benefit and the child Supplement - using an income definition based on the rules for the child supplement or the Social Code Book II (SGB II) - would likely lead to moderately positive effects on labour supply and simultaneous fiscal savings, provided that lower incomes are subject to a high benefit withdrawal rate while higher incomes experience income gains. Conversely, strong positive effects on labour supply would only be expected if benefit withdrawal rates were significantly reduced - which would, however, entail substantial additional fiscal costs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Auswirkungen ; Einkommenseffekte ; Entbürokratisierung ; Finanzierung ; Grundsicherung nach SGB II ; Haushaltseinkommen ; Kindergeldzuschlag ; Modernisierung ; negative Einkommensteuer ; öffentliche Ausgaben ; Reformpolitik ; Arbeitsanreiz ; Sozialleistungen ; Sozialpolitik ; Sozialstaat ; Steuern ; Arbeitskräfteangebot ; Szenario ; verfügbares Einkommen ; Wohngeld ; Zu- und Abgänge ; 2015-2025 |
| Date: | 2026–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202610 |
| By: | Stephan, Gesine (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Heusler, Anna (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Lang, Julia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Osiander, Christopher (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "The IAB survey on ‘Career Development’ aims to gain insights into whether regular employees in Germany feel well-informed about their career opportunities and whether they have already taken steps towards a career change or are planning to do so. Of particular interest was whether the answers to these questions differed between otherwise similar individuals who had, or had not, used the “Career Guidance in Working Life” (BBiE) offered by Germany’s Federal Employment Agency (FEA). Introduced by the FEA in 2020, the BBiE is designed to help those seeking advice to realistically assess their career prospects and make informed decisions about their future career path. Its main target group is employees. The survey was therefore aimed at a) employees who, according to the Federal Employment Agency’s process data, had attended an initial counselling session as part of the BBiE provided by the FEA in 2024, and b) employees with similar observed characteristics who had not used the service (“statistical twins”). Only people aged between 25 and 59 were invited to participate in the survey. In total, 5.5 percent of those persons that were contacted completed the survey in full, and 4.9 percent consented to their responses being linked to the data held about them by the FEA. Among those who had received counselling through the BBiE, the response rate and the linkage consent rate were significantly higher at 7.0 percent and 6.2 percent respectively, compared with 4.1 percent and 3.6 percent for those who had not received counselling. The analyses show that participation in the survey correlates with certain characteristics. In particular, the following groups of people participated more frequently in the survey: women, people with German nationality, those with higher levels of education, older people, people in higher occupational levels, people with higher daily wages, and people who had spent more time in employment and less time receiving wage replacement benefits. Consequently, probit estimates were used to estimate the individual probabilities that invitees would take part in the survey or consent to their data being linked to information about them already held by the FEA. Individual weights were then calculated as the inverses of the estimated probabilities of participation. These weights should be used in descriptive analyses intended to draw conclusions about the population as a whole. Initial analyses of the survey data also reveal that more than half of the individuals who received counseling—based on the process data—stated that they were unfamiliar with the BBiE and had not attended an appointment there. Consequently, a comparison was made between the characteristics of those who were aware of the service and those who were not. This analysis shows, for instance, that individuals who were registered as job seekers at the time of counseling were particularly likely not to recall the session. Presumably, they perceived the vocational counseling appointment simply as a standard counseling meeting at their labor market office." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Date: | 2026–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202612 |
| By: | Chauhan, Madhu (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Bähr, Sebastian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Beste, Jonas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Collischon, Matthias (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Dummert, Sandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Fehn, Anja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Frodermann, Corinna (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Malich, Sonja; Müller, Marcel (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Prospero, Valentina (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Stegmaier, Jens (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Trappmann, Mark (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wenzig, Claudia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "The Panel Study Labour Market and Social Security (PASS) User Guide provides a comprehensive reference for working with the PASS survey and its Scientific Use File (SUF) for research on labour market, poverty and means-tested income support in Germany. It is intended to support researchers in understanding the structure, content, analytical potential of PASS data and to facilitate its effective usage in empirical research." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | 10.5164/IAB.PASS-SUF0624.de.en.v1 ; 10.5164/IAB.PASS-ADIAB7522.de.en.v2 |
| Date: | 2026–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202606(en) |
| By: | Khabyuk, Olexiy (Department of Economics of the Hochschule Düsseldorf University of Applied Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Sammelband versammelt fünf Hausarbeiten aus dem Bachelor-Modul E-Business im Studiengang „Kommunikations- und Multimediamanagement“ an der Hochschule Düsseldorf. Das Rahmenthema des Moduls lautete gesellschaftsgefährdende Wirkungen digitaler Geschäftsmodelle. In den Arbeiten wurden zunächst Geschäftsmodelle SHEIN, Amazon KDP, Teads, Character.AI und Suno AI beschrieben und ihre Wettbewerbsfähigkeit untersucht sowie anschließend ihre gesellschaftlichen Wirkungen abgeleitet. Wiederkehrende Befunde sind Verweildauer- und Bindungsmaximierung als Geschäftslogik, Intransparenz von Plattformmechanismen, Abhängigkeiten der Marktgegenseite, Verlagerung von Risiken und Kosten auf Nutzerinnen, Kreative und Gesellschaft. |
| Abstract: | The edited volume brings together five term papers from the undergraduate module “E-Business” in the degree programme “Communication and Multimedia Management” at the University of Applied Sciences Düsseldorf. The module’s overarching theme was the socially harmful effects of digital business models. The contributions first describe the business models of SHEIN, Amazon KDP, Teads, Character.AI and Suno AI, examine their competitiveness, and then derive their societal implications. Recurring findings include the maximization of engagement and user retention as a core business logic, the opacity of platform mechanism, dependencies of the opposite market side, and the shifting of risks and costs onto users, creators and society at large. |
| Keywords: | Digitale Geschäftsmodelle, Plattformregulierung, mehrseitige Märkte, Dark Patterns, Native Advertising, digital business models, multi-sided markets, platform regulation |
| JEL: | D40 M14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ddf:wpaper:64 |
| By: | Zika, Gerd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Muliavka, Viktoriia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schneemann, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schneider, Martin |
| Abstract: | "As part of the long-term qualification and occupation projections (www.QuBe-Projekt.de), the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) has developed a new population projection for the long-term development of Germany´s 400 districts and district-free cities, the 16 federal states and 34 labour market regions up to 2070. A key distinguishing feature of this population projection, which sets it apart from other projections, is its differentiation between people with and without German citizenship. This allows to take into account substantial differences in fertility rates and migration behaviour. The new population projection illustrates that Germany´s long-term population development is shaped by fundamental demographic trends: a substantial population decline by 5, 9% by 2045 and 10, 7% by 2070 (compared with 2024). This development is driven by an ageing population, further increases in life expectancy, and low birth rates. Combined with declining migration, these factors have a major influence on demographic development and lead to a substantial shift in the age structure. At the district level, the largest percentage decline by 2070 is expected in the district of Suhl (southern Thuringia), at 38, 1%. Among the ten fastest-growing districts (measured in percentage terms), none is located in eastern Germany, while the ten districts expected to experience the largest declines are all located in eastern Germany. With the exception of Leipzig, the areas around Schwerin, and Berlin, there are no districts in the eastern German states expected to record substantial population growth. However, when considering absolute population figures, the clear East-West divide is no longer apparent. In particular, western German districts and the metropolitan areas of Munich and Berlin have experienced substantial population growth in recent years due to migration. If the projected decline in the net migration continues, many districts in western Germany will also experience population decline. The working age population (aged 15 to 67) is expected to decline in most districts. In 68% of districts, this age group is projected to decrease by more than 10% by 2045, and in 81% of districts by 2070. The only districts expected to gain population in this age group are predominantly urban areas or rural regions with a degree of urbanisation. The development of the net migration is also clearly reflected at the level of the federal states. With the exception of the city-state of Hamburg (1, 3%), all federal states are expected to lose population. Thuringia is projected to be affected most severely, with a decline of 15, 2% by 2045 and 24, 9% by 2070. As at the district level, population decline is particularly pronounced in the eastern federal states, where demographic change has been progressing for many years. This is attributed to the ageing population, low birth rates, and insufficient immigration from abroad. At the same time, western German states, which have so far benefited from migration from both within and outside Europe, will also be substantially affected by declining migration and are expected to lose population, albeit to a lesser extent. The working-age population (aged 15 to 67), which is particularly relevant for the labour market, is also expected to decline substantially in all federal states (Hamburg: -3, 2% by 2045 and -8, 3% by 2070; Thuringia: -19, 6% by 2045 and -26, 4% by 2070). At the level of labour market regions, developments in the migration balance follow a pattern similar to that observed at the district and federal-state levels. The Erfurt labour market region is projected to experience the largest decline, at 14, 7% by 2045 (-24, 1% by 2070). Overall, eastern German labour market regions are more strongly affected by declining migration and are expected to lose population. The working-age population (aged 15 to 67) is projected to decline substantially in all labour market regions (Hamburg labour market region: -7, 2% by 2045 and -9, 8% by 2070; Erfurt labour market region: -19, 0% by 2045 and -25, 7% by 2070). The decline in this age group will have a substantial impact on labour supply. In regions where the working-age population declines faster than the total population, labour shortages could emerge or existing shortages could intensify. In addition to population ageing, the trend towards urbanisation is reinforcing population decline in rural areas. While larger cities as well as university locations, such as Heidelberg and Bamberg, benefit from population growth, rural regions in eastern Germany are experiencing declines of more than 30%. The strong influx into the metropolitan areas of Hamburg, Berlin, and Munich is not expected to continue at the same pace. Western German districts and metropolitan areas, in particular, have gained population in recent years as a result of international migration. Overall, the share of the population without German citizenship is projected to decline by 2045 and 2070 as a result of a lower net migration. A clear East-West divide will nevertheless remain: districts with high shares of foreign nationals are concentrated in western Germany, while the corresponding shares in eastern Germany remain below average." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202611 |
| By: | Bachbauer, Nadine (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; LIfBi) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the linked survey data of Starting Cohort 6 „Adult Education and Lifelong Learning” of the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS-SC6) with administrative data of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; Datenfusion ; Nationales Bildungspanel ; Stichprobenverfahren ; NEPS-SC6-ADIAB ; 10.5164/IAB.NEPS-SC6-ADIAB7525.de.en.v1 |
| Date: | 2026–09–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202607(de) |
| By: | Buchner, Johannes |
| Abstract: | Die dramatischen ökonomischen Folgen des Klimawandels werden in dem in weiten Teilen der Wirt-schaftswissenschaft vorherrschenden neoklassischen Paradigma fundamental unterschätzt. Das hat auch mathematische Gründe, da dort Gleichgewichtsmodelle dominieren, die für die nichtlineare Struktur des Klimasystems ungeeignet sind. Wir schlagen daher eine "kritische mathematische Ökono-mie" vor, um einen solchen Missbrauch mathematischer Modelle zu kritisieren, bessere Modelle zu entwickeln, und auch über den Kapitalismus hinausweisende Wirtschaftsweisen mit Methoden aus der Mathematik und Informatik zu unterstützen. Es geht dabei insbesondere um die Möglichkeit und Not-wendigkeit einer ökologischen und demokratischen Wirtschaftsplanung, auch mit Blick auf aktuelle KI-Entwicklungen. Wir betrachten sowohl technische Möglichkeiten als auch die Ambivalenz von KI aus progressiver Sicht genauer (inkl. verschiedener grundlegender Definitionen, was "KI" genau bedeutet), mit einem Fokus auf Nachhaltigkeit, Kreislaufwirtschaft und Wirtschaftsdemokratie. |
| Abstract: | The dramatic economic consequences of climate change are fundamentally underestimated by the neoclassical paradigm that prevails in much of economic science. There are also mathematical reasons for this, as equilibrium models dominate in this field, and these models are unsuitable for the nonlinear structure of the climate system. We therefore propose a "critical mathematical economics" to critique such misuse of mathematical models, develop better models, and support economic systems that go beyond capitalism using methods from mathematics and computer science. In particular, this concerns the possibility and necessity of ecological and democratic economic planning, also in light of current AI developments. We take a closer look at both the technical possibilities and the ambivalence of AI from a progressive perspective (including various fundamental definitions of what "AI" actually means), with a focus on sustainability, the circular economy, and economic democracy. |
| Keywords: | democratic economic planning, , circular economy, mathematical economics, nonequilibrium climate modelling, AI |
| JEL: | A12 C02 Q54 Q57 P21 P41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:344040 |