| By: |
Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany);
Olbrich, Lukas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany);
Gallegos Torres, Katia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany);
Hammer, Luisa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany);
Koch, Theresa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany);
Wagner, Simon (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: |
"Temporary migration, return and onward migration have reached high levels in
Germany. Between 2014 and 2023, the average emigration rate among foreign
nationals ranged from 6 to 11 percent, depending on the data source. At the
same time, Germany requires a net annual immigration of around 400, 000 people
to stabilize its labour force potential. The high mobility propensity among
immigrants can challenge this goal – with far-reaching consequences for
securing skilled labour, integration, and the long-term viability of the
welfare state. To gain robust insights into the causes, patterns, and effects
of mobility, the International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa)
was established as a new longitudinal online survey. It includes first-time
surveys every two years, complemented by annual follow-up surveys over a
four-year period. In the first wave (December 2024 to April 2025), around 50,
000 immigrants participated. The first follow-up survey is scheduled for the
second half of 2025. Using statistical weighting procedures, the data allow
for representative statements about individuals in Germany who immigrated by
April 2, 2024, are registered in the data of the Federal Employment Agency
(e.g. via employment, benefit receipt, or participation in labour market
programs), and are in working age (18 to 65 years). Key findings from the
first wave indicate: A narrow majority of immigrants (57 percent, roughly 5.7
million people) plan to stay in Germany permanently. Around 1.2 million (12
percent) aim for a temporary stay, and roughly 3 million (30 percent) remain
uncertain. About 2.6 million people (26 percent) reported having considered
leaving Germany in the last 12 months; approximately 300, 000 (3 percent)
already have concrete emigration plans – split roughly equally between return
migration and onward migration. Given Germany’s structural need for skilled
labour, the political priority in migration policy is shifting: not only
immigration, but also the long-term retention of immigrants is becoming a key
challenge. The data reveal that emigration intentions vary widely. Those
intending to return primarily target European countries such as Poland or
Romania, while onward migrants tend to prefer Switzerland, the United States,
or Spain. Motivations also differ: family reasons dominate returns to the
country of origin, while economic opportunities play a key role in onward
migration. Main reasons for emigration considerations include political
dissatisfaction, personal preferences, tax burdens, and bureaucracy. These
motives are present among labour migrants, education- and family-based
migrants alike; refugees also frequently cite discrimination as a major
reason. Overall, the findings suggest that state measures such as reducing
bureaucracy, simplifying administrative procedures, and offering tax
incentives could help lower emigration intentions. Regarding sociodemographic
and migration-specific factors, the IMPa results highlight their central role
in shaping emigration intentions. Men report higher rates of temporary stay
intentions, emigration considerations, and concrete migration plans than
women. Region of origin and reason for migration significantly influence
mobility patterns: refugees and individuals with family reunification
backgrounds express considerably lower emigration tendencies, while migrants
from EU countries and those who came for work or education show higher
mobility. Moreover, immigrants with permanent residence status or EU/German
citizenship are more likely to consider leaving – likely due to broader legal
mobility options. The IMPa results highlight that labour market factors and
economic integration also play a critical but nuanced role in shaping
emigration intentions. Education emerges as a key predictor: highly educated
individuals more frequently express thoughts of leaving or make concrete plans
than those with lower educational levels. Qualifications obtained in Germany
or third countries – as well as foreign qualifications recognized in Germany –
are more strongly associated with emigration considerations, likely due to
their higher international transferability. Employed individuals are more
likely to report temporary stay intentions than those who are not employed or
are in training. Sectors where the outmigration risk among immigrants is
particularly high—such as IT and technical services—are also those facing
significant skilled labour shortages. Moreover, it is notable that in other
sectors vulnerable to labour shortages—such as healthcare, construction,
public administration, or retail—, emigration tendencies are not above
average, but they are still relevant. Higher incomes are also associated with
stronger emigration considerations and plans, indicating a pattern of positive
selection. Another important factor is job satisfaction: the less satisfied
individuals are with their work, the more frequently they express temporary
intentions to stay, thoughts of emigration, and concrete emigration plans. Job
satisfaction thus acts as a stabilizing factor. Language skills show
differentiated effects: while descriptive findings suggest that individuals
with poor German skills have lower intentions to stay permanently and higher
mobility plans, multivariate analyses indicate that good German skills are
associated with increased mobility. Good English skills also tend to increase
emigration intentions, likely due to better international labour market
options. Social integration and societal participation are also crucial:
family ties in Germany and regular contact with German nationals have a
stabilizing effect. A strong emotional attachment to Germany stabilizes the
intention to stay, whereas a strong connection to the country of origin
increases the likelihood of emigration. A strong subjective sense of welcome
and low perceptions of discrimination significantly reduce the probability of
emigration considerations and plans. Conversely, perceptions of discrimination
– especially in interactions with authorities, police, and at the workplace –
greatly increases emigration tendencies. Political dissatisfaction also
significantly raises the likelihood of emigration-related thoughts and plans.
In summary, emigration intentions do not arise randomly but are the result of
a complex interplay of individual characteristics, social integration,
economic anchoring, and perceived societal acceptance. One of the central
findings of the IMPa survey is that those who came to Germany for work or
education, better educated, more economically successful, and more
linguistically integrated are the ones most likely to consider leaving or
already have concrete plans to do so. In other words: those most urgently
needed to secure Germany’s future labour supply are also those most inclined
to leave. This selective mobility endangers the country’s long-term ability to
retain skilled labour. It is therefore essential to offer this group a
meaningful perspective and to position Germany not only as a place of
immigration but as a country in which people want to stay and build their
future. This includes faster and more transparent recognition of
qualifications, a determined reduction of bureaucratic hurdles,
family-friendly integration policies, and targeted measures against everyday
and workplace discrimination. Only when immigrants feel like fully included
members of society – with real opportunities for participation and
professional advancement – are they likely to choose Germany as their
long-term home and pursue both personal and professional goals here. So far,
only about one fifth of those with emigration plans have taken concrete steps
toward leaving. At the same time, roughly one fifth express a long-term wish
to return to Germany, one third rule it out, and about half remain undecided.
This means that around two thirds of those considering emigration are
potentially open to returning in the future. Activating and supporting this
return potential could become a valuable component of Germany’s strategic
labour policy. A forward-looking migration strategy must go beyond attracting
newcomers: it must also ensure long-term perspectives for staying. The IMPa
findings offer important insights in this regard and highlight the urgent need
to remove structural barriers, accelerate and simplify migration and
administrative processes, strengthen social integration, and foster openness
and inclusion. Only then will Germany succeed not only in managing migration
but in shaping it sustainably." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |