| By: |
Fuchs, Johann (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]);
Mai, Ralf;
Micheel, Frank;
Otto, Anne (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]);
Weber, Brigitte (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]);
Göttner, Denis (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: |
"Whereas projections for the regional labour demand have been developed by the
regional network of the IAB for a while, comparable regional differentiated
projection of the labour supply are available for West and East Germany each,
but not on a deeper regional level up to now. The reasons are both data
problems and capacity restrictions. Therefore, this article discusses, whether
it might be possible using a simplified approach to estimate the potential
labour force for single German Federal 'Länder'. Our approach was tested for
the Saarland. A typical forecast of the labour supply is based upon two
elements: a projection of the population and an estimate of future activity
rates. For the population projection of the Saarland the '11th coordinated
population projection', calculated by the German Federal Statistical Offices
and the Statistical Offices of the Länder, was taken. The second element, the
estimation and projection of labour participation rates in the Saarland, was
in the focus of this article. These estimations were based on projections,
which were calculated by the IAB for West Germany. Due to the concept of the
potential labour supply, there should be no substantial difference in
(potential) activity rates of the Saarland and West Germany, if unemployment
were on the same level - all other influences kept constant. Our estimations
show that there will be in fact no significant difference in potential labour
participation, if the influence of the unemployment rate is taken into
account. For that reason, we conclude that it is possible to use those
potential activity rates, which are projected for West Germany, for the
Saarland as well. Based on the population projection of the Statistical
Offices for the Saarland and the IAB-forecast of the labour participation for
West Germany, the labour force potential of the Saarland will moderately
decline up to 2020. But this process accelerates enormously. Especially from
2020 onwards it gains on strength, driven by low birth rates and an ageing
baby-boom generation. The labour force potential of the Saarland will shrink
even a little more than the West German is assumed to. Demography will also
shift the age structure of the labour force potential in the Saarland. Whereas
the 40- to 49-year-olds is the strongest age-group today, in 2020 the
numerically biggest age group will be the 50- to 59-year-olds. All in all, the
demographic trend is the most important influencing factor on labour supply.
The analyses show that neither high net migration flows nor increasing female
labour participation rates respectively an extension of the working life
(old-age pensions with 67) will be able to stop the trend." (author's
abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: |
Erwerbspersonenpotenzial - Prognose, Prognostik, Arbeitskräfteangebot, Erwerbsbeteiligung, Erwerbsverhalten, Erwerbsquote, Bevölkerungsprognose, Saarland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland |
| Date: |
2009–09–22 |
| URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:200906&r=ger |