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on Economic Geography |
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Issue of 2026–03–30
thirteen papers chosen by Andreas Koch, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung |
| By: | Diego Ocampo-Corrales (AQR-IREA, Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Rosina Moreno (AQR-IREA, Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of regions’ recombinatorial technological capacity in shaping the technological space. To do so, we identify novel combinations of technologies and track their evolution by tracing all subsequent inventions that incorporate the same combination. Building on the concepts of relatedness and geographical proximity, we focus on the relevance of the technological antecedents of a pair of technologies combined for the first time in determining their success. This is due through the estimation of the likelihood of a new technological combination eventually becoming embedded within the broader knowledge space. Using patent data from 1976 to 2022 in the case of the European regions, we find strong evidence that a higher degree of relatedness between the technological antecedents of the two combined technologies significantly increases the likelihood that the combination will be reused in future inventions. Additionally, we find that the success of a new combination also benefits from the presence of dissimilar knowledge—not directly involved in the combination’s antecedents but accessible within the surrounding technological environment. In these cases, the greater the relatedness between the new invention’s antecedents and the broader regional knowledge base, the more likely it is to generate a high number of follow-on inventions and contribute meaningfully to the formation of the technological space. |
| Keywords: | New Combination of Technologies; Regional Innovation; European Regions; Recombination Capacity; Knowledge Space; Technological Antecedents. JEL classification: O18; O31; O33; R11. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202526 |
| By: | Chiodin, Alessio; Manera, Matteo; Maranzano, Paolo; Monturano, Gianluca |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic generated highly heterogeneous economic effects across territories, reflecting differences in local production structures and spatial organization. This paper examines the geography of short-run economic fragility during the first wave of the pandemic by identifying spatially-coherent clusters of municipalities exposed to lockdown-induced shutdowns. Using municipal-level data on Italian suspended firms, workers, and value added in Spring 2020, we apply a Ward-like hierarchical clustering approach under spatial constraints that combines socio-economic dissimilarities with geographical proximity. We first analyze Lombardy, the region most severely affected during the initial phase, and then extend the analysis to the entire Italian territory. The results show that clustering based solely on socio-economic variables mainly reflects differences in economic scale, while incorporating spatial information reveals coherent territorial structures. Industrial and peripheral municipalities appear to be more exposed to shutdown measures than large service-oriented urban centers. At the national level, spatial partitions reproduce Italy’s hierarchical territorial structure, from the North–South divide to intermediate macro-regions. These findings highlight the role of spatially targeted policies and the importance of pre-existing territorial structures in shaping the economic impact of systemic shocks. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Political Economy, Public Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:396373 |
| By: | Pol Cosentino |
| Abstract: | Cities are places where people commute to work and where goods are traded across space. While a large literature examines how lower commuting costs reshape cities, much less is known about within-city trade costs as a distinct force. This paper studies both channels using the construction of the Petite Ceinture railroad in nineteenth-century Paris, the world's first circular transit system, designed for both freight and passengers. Using newly digitized data on firms, population, rents, and transport networks spanning 1801 to 1906, I provide causal evidence that improved access to the railroad reshaped the spatial distribution of economic activities during this period. To quantify general equilibrium effects, I develop and calibrate a quantitative urban model in which within-city freight costs generate spatial variation in tradable goods prices, creating consumption-driven forces at the residence absent from canonical models. Counterfactuals show that removing the railroad would substantially reduce total population, consumption of tradables, and spatial specialization. Ignoring within-city freight costs leads to a 17.1% underestimation of the effects of transport infrastructure on urban structure and welfare. |
| Keywords: | commuting, trade, transport infrastructure, quantitative urban model |
| JEL: | R40 R12 R13 F12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12557 |
| By: | Shogo Fukui |
| Abstract: | Non-survey methods have been developed and applied for estimating regional input-output tables. However, there is an ongoing debate about the assumptions necessary for these methods and their accuracy. To address these issues, this study presents a deep learning method for estimating regional input-output tables. First, the quantitative economic data for regions is augmented by linear combinations. Then, deep learning is performed on each item in the input-output table, treating these items as target variables. Finally, regional input-output tables are estimated through matrix balancing to the predicted values from the trained model. The estimation accuracy of this method is verified using the 2015 input-output table for Japan as a benchmark. Compared to matrix balancing under the ideal assumption of known row and column sums, our method generally demonstrates higher estimation accuracy. Thus, this method is anticipated to provide a foundation for deriving more precise estimates of regional input-output tables. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.13823 |
| By: | Salvatore Viola (Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain; AQR-IREA, Spain.); Ernest Miguelez (Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain; AQR-IREA, Spain.); Rosina Moreno (Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain; AQR-IREA, Spain.); Davide Consoli (INGENIO, Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain; CSIC-UPV, Spain); François Perruchas (Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | One important factor in addressing climate change is the development and deployment of environmental-related, or green, technologies (GT). Environmental-related technologies are distinct, requiring specific conditions to be developed which vary depending on their relative level of technological maturity. Recent studies have focused on the role of migrant inventors in creating these conditions and spurring regional diversification into new technological domains. Regional diversification helps regions avoid lock-in and even escape fossil fuel dependencies. While the contribution of migrants to science and innovation is well documented, less attention has been given to migrants and diversification, especially in the case of GT and along the technological life cycle. In this study, we investigate the role of US-based migrant inventors in regional GT diversification using patent data from the USPTO between the year 1990 and 2012. We find that migrant inventors are positively associated with regional GT diversification, partly as a result of their previous patenting experience as well as the specializations of their countries of origin. With regard to the technological life cycle, while geographically diffused technologies rely on corresponding inventor experience, emergent technological diversification benefits from inventors from specialized countries. These findings highlight the bridging role that migrant inventors in international knowledge transfer and their importance in regional diversification in particular environmental-related technologies. |
| Keywords: | Regional Diversification; Green Technology; Immigration; Technological Life Cycle. JEL classification: O33; Q55; J61; R11. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202517 |
| By: | Isaak Mengesha; Debraj Roy |
| Abstract: | Economic growth is conventionally analyzed at the national level, yet cities generate the bulk of global output. Here we construct GDP trajectories for 8, 808 functional urban areas (FUAs) across 165 countries over 1993-2019 using satellite-derived nighttime light data and identify 17 distinct, persistent growth regimes through clustering of full temporal trajectories. Rather than converging toward a common frontier, FUAs inhabit distinct economic niches-analogous to ecological niches-defined by shared volatility profiles, shock responses, and long-run dynamics that transcend national boundaries. Cities within the same country frequently belong to different regimes, while structurally similar cities on different continents share the same one; regime membership explains 16% of within-country growth variance beyond country fixed effects. National-level convergence emerges as an aggregation artifact: conditional convergence operates within regimes, not globally. A directed propagation network reveals that shocks transmit along lines of structural similarity rather than geographic proximity, with advanced economies exporting disturbances and emerging economies absorbing or amplifying them. Within-country spatial inequality declines with industrialization maturity, consistent with growth initially concentrating in leading cities before diffusing across the urban system. The global economy is better understood as an ecology of heterogeneous urban growth regimes than as a collection of nations on a shared development path. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.16007 |
| By: | Sebastian Ritter (AQR-IREA Research group, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Vicente Royuela (AQR-IREA Research group, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | As the EU races to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target, regional disparities in transition progress threaten to leave some territories behind. We introduce the Regional Green Transition Performance Index (RGTP), a novel composite measure capturing progress across seven pillars (environmental; energy; circular economy and waste; sustainable development; just transition; innovation and policy; and transport and mobility) for 232 European NUTS2 regions over 14 years. Drawing on 31 indicators, we map spatial patterns and dynamic processes. Furthermore, we argue that the green transition acts as a structural force whose potential effects on regional development can be expressed along two axes: vulnerability and opportunity. We propose an alternative measure of Regional Green Transition Opportunity index (RGTO) which we combine with the existent Regional Green Transition Vulnerability index (RGTV) of Rodríguez-Pose & Bartalucci (2024) to construct a simple 2×2 typology of regions. We translate this evidence into a policy playbook: pair risk-mitigation with opportunity-creation and embed diffusion mechanisms so gains propagate beyond individual regions. The paper contributes an open dataset, a transparent methodology to separate performance, opportunities, and vulnerabilities which responds to the EU’s performance-based policy agenda by offering a region-level monitoring tool that complements cohesion instruments (ERDF/CF/JTF/ESF+) and flags where to reduce vulnerabilities while mobilizing opportunities in the green transition. |
| Keywords: | Green Transition; European Union; Regional Inequality; Green Transition Index. JEL classification: C43; Q56; R11; R12. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202602 |
| By: | Patricia Agyapong |
| Abstract: | In 2007, Kosmos Energy and Tullow Oil found Ghana’s most significant column of high-grade offshore oil and gas. In this paper, I use geocoded household data to examine the socio-economic effects of this oil and gas discovery on the local communities. I conduct two quasi-experimental analysis and find that oil and gas discovery increased real income for households close to the fields, with the benefits being larger for households in districts with a high proportion of skilled workers and limited to non-poor districts. However, there is no apparent effect on employment, total consumption expenditure and poverty. |
| Keywords: | natural resources; oil and gas; local economic impacts; household welfare; spatial difference-in-differences; Ghana |
| JEL: | Q33 O13 R11 D31 C21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2026-02 |
| By: | Adrian Fernandez-Perez (Department of Banking and Finance, Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School, University College of Dublin, Ireland.); Marta Gómez-Puig (Department of Economics and Riskcenter, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Simón Sosvilla-Rivero (Complutense Institute for Economic Analysis, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of extreme temperatures on housing price dynamics in Spain, considering both direct and indirect effects across geographic space. Using panel data at the provincial level and a spatial econometric model, we find that an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures exceeding 35 °C (95ºF) over the past year is significantly associated with a decline in both sale and rental prices within the affected province. However, we also identify a positive indirect effect on housing markets in more distant provinces, particularly in the rental sector, consistent with a pattern of temperature-induced house price premium in cooler regions. A central methodological contribution of this paper is the use of spatial econometric techniques to detect and quantify these spillover effects. By explicitly modelling spatial dependence, we can disentangle local impacts from broader geographic transmission mechanisms, revealing how climate stressors reshape housing demand across regions. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating climate-related factors into real estate market analysis and the design of adaptation policies. |
| Keywords: | Extreme Heat Temperature; Housing Prices; Spatial Econometrics; Environmental Economics. JEL classification: C23; Q54; R14; R21; R31. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202516 |
| By: | Florian Dorn; Marie-Theres Gasser; Kevin Kloiber; Simon Krause; Carla Krolage |
| Abstract: | Hosting mega-sports events generates optimistic projections of economic benefits, yet empirical evidence on actual local returns remains mixed. Focusing on the UEFA EURO 2024 in Germany, this paper provides causal evidence on the short-term local consumption effects of hosting mega-events. We leverage anonymized daily card spending data at the postcode level to measure changes in consumer spending. Using a difference-in-differences and a local projection framework, we document a statistically significant and economically meaningful 3% increase in consumer spending in host cities during the tournament. This effect is driven entirely by international visitors, whose spending increases by more than 6%, and is concentrated in the group stage and on match days. Domestic spending does not change on aggregate, but exhibits spatial displacement. The gains are highly concentrated in city centers and tourist-facing sectors. Overall, our findings provide policymakers with highly granular evidence on the localized economic effects of mega-sports events, highlighting how temporary demand shocks reshape intra-urban consumption patterns and concentrate gains in central, tourism-oriented areas. |
| Keywords: | EURO 2024, sports events, consumer spending, impact evaluation, microgeographic analysis |
| JEL: | Z20 R11 L83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12555 |
| By: | Gerson Kambale Ngalyavuyira (ISP Masereka - Institut Supérieur Pédagogique de Masereka) |
| Abstract: | This article adopts an approach combining historical analysis and measurement of transport networks to examine the impact of infrastructure (national roads, airport, lake route) on urbanization and economic development in the far north of North Kivu (DRC). The findings reveal the powerful agglomeration effects induced by the road network: 91% of the areas studied are located along national roads, while the cities of Beni and Butembo stand out for their high accessibility and commercial and industrial centrality. Conversely, the lake route does not generate structuring effects due to legal and logistical constraints. The study demonstrates that regional urbanization is deeply polarized by road and air infrastructure and recommends better inter-provincial integration of networks as well as appropriate planning policies to reduce territorial imbalances. |
| Abstract: | L'article adopte une approche combinant analyse historique et mesure des réseaux de transport pour examiner l'impact des infrastructures (routes nationales, aéroport, voie lacustre) sur l'urbanisation et le développement économique du Grand-Nord du Nord-Kivu (RDC). Les conclusions révèlent la puissance des effets d'agglomération induits par le réseau routier : 91 % des zones étudiées sont localisées le long des routes nationales, tandis que les villes de Beni et Butembo se distinguent par une forte accessibilité et une centralité commerciale et industrielle. À l'inverse, la voie lacustre ne génère pas d'effets structurants, en raison de contraintes juridiques et logistiques. L'étude démontre que l'urbanisation régionale est profondément polarisée par l'infrastructure routière et aérienne, et recommande une meilleure intégration inter- provinciale des réseaux ainsi que des politiques d'aménagement adaptées afin de réduire les déséquilibres territoriaux. |
| Keywords: | Réseaux de transport, Réseaux de transport Développement économique urbanisation JEL Codes : L98 O18 R58 Transportation network Economic development urbanization JEL Codes : L98 O18 R58, urbanization JEL Codes : L98, Développement économique, urbanisation JEL Codes : L98, O18, R58 Transportation network, Economic development, R58 |
| Date: | 2025–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05463607 |
| By: | Tamás Krisztin (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis); Philipp Piribauer (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | This document introduces the R library estimateW to estimate spatial weight matrices for Bayesian spatial econometric panel models. The approach focuses on spatial weights that are binary prior to row-standardization. However, unlike recent literature our approach requires no strong a priori assumptions on (socio-)economic distances between the spatial units. The estimation approach relies on efficient Bayesian Gibbs sampling techniques and the library supports a variety of the most common spatial econometric panel specifications. estimateW moreover supports to elicit flexible shrinkage priors, which allow to estimate spatial spillovers even in settings where the number of time period is small relative to number of cross-sectional units. An empirical illustration for European NUTS-1 regions demonstrates that the method recovers plausible spatial dependence patterns, interpretable spillover effects, and meaningful clustering in the estimated network structure. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian spatial econometrics, spatial weight matrix estimation, regional economic growth, R |
| Date: | 2026–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2026:i:722 |
| By: | Faulconbridge, James; Iammarino, Simona; De la Roca, Jorge; Gibbons, Steve; Ross, Amanda |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137617 |