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on Economic Geography |
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Issue of 2026–02–16
seven papers chosen by Andreas Koch, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung |
| By: | Robert Calvert Jump; Adam Scavette |
| Abstract: | Using synthetic differences-in-differences models, we study whether U.S. counties containing state flagship universities experienced resiliency via lower unemployment rates during the past three U.S. recessions. We find an insignificant effect for the 2001 recession and a large resiliency effect for the 2008-2009 recession. However, counties with flagship universities faced higher unemployment rates during the 2020 recession, and were therefore less resilient to the Covid-19 recession than other counties. These results support the hypothesis that stable consumption demand for non-tradables drives resiliency, which was absent during the 2020 recession when most university campuses were closed to students due to Covid-19 restrictions. |
| Keywords: | Regional Business Cycles; Unemployment; Research Universities; Regional Resilience |
| JEL: | R11 R23 R53 |
| Date: | 2026–02–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:102416 |
| By: | Diego Ocampo-Corrales (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Rosina Moreno (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of regions’ recombinatorial technological capacity in shaping the technological space. To do so, we identify novel combinations of technologies and track their evolution by tracing all subsequent inventions that incorporate the same combination. Building on the concepts of relatedness and geographical proximity, we focus on the relevance of the technological antecedents of a pair of technologies combined for the first time in determining their success. This is due through the estimation of the likelihood of a new technological combination eventually becoming embedded within the broader knowledge space. Using patent data from 1976 to 2022 in the case of the European regions, we find strong evidence that a higher degree of relatedness between the technological antecedents of the two combined technologies significantly increases the likelihood that the combination will be reused in future inventions. Additionally, we find that the success of a new combination also benefits from the presence of dissimilar knowledge—not directly involved in the combination’s antecedents but accessible within the surrounding technological environment. In these cases, the greater the relatedness between the new invention’s antecedents and the broader regional knowledge base, the more likely it is to generate a high number of follow-on inventions and contribute meaningfully to the formation of the technological space |
| Keywords: | New combination of technologies, Regional innovation, European regions, Recombination capacity, Knowledge space, Technological antecedents JEL classification:O18, O31, O33, R11 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202511 |
| By: | Rodrigo Cuenca-de-Armas (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Luisa Alamá-Sabater (Department of Economics and IIDL, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Miguel Ángel Márquez (Department of Economics, Universidad de Extremadura, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the complex interrelationships between bank branches, employment, and population dynamics in Spanish municipalities from 2008 to 2019. Using a simultaneous equations model based on Carlino and Mills’ (1987) framework, we analyse data from 8, 014 municipalities to investigate whether people follow jobs and financial services, whether jobs follow people and financial services, and whether financial services follow people and jobs. Our findings reveal a bidirectional relationship between population and employment, with employment following population more strongly than vice versa, particularly in urban areas. We also find a bidirectional relationship between population and bank branches, with bank branches following population more intensely than population following bank branches. Interestingly, no significant relationship was observed between employment and bank branches. Furthermore, our results indicate that bank branch closures influenced depopulation in certain territories, though banks primarily responded to rather than caused population movements. These decisions were not significantly influenced by the percentage of elderly residents in municipalities. Additionally, we find that rural and intermediate municipalities with higher per capita income gained population during the study period. Our research contributes to the literature on financial inclusion, left-behind places, and regional development by providing empirical evidence on the role of banking services in economic activity and population dynamics in Spain. |
| Keywords: | bank branches; depopulation; financial inclusion; left-behind places; simultaneous equations |
| JEL: | G21 R23 R11 O18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2026/04 |
| By: | Neumann, Uwe |
| Abstract: | The literature on regional agglomeration suggests that local economic revitalisation is likely to involve a rise in local wages. In the context of urban regeneration, community-oriented policy envisages to improve prosperity among the residential population of deprived neighbourhoods. Yet, due to an ever-increasing preference of households to reside at central locations this policy may spur gentrification if outsiders are attracted to new jobs and upgraded housing environments. Using Germany as a case study, the analysis explores whether local economies have received a boost that may have affected household sorting and local household income during the past two decades. The study reveals no considerable shift in sorting that would indicate gentrification. With a view to income over the past decade local households with a middle or higher income in programme areas have kept up with overall income growth and lowincome households have experienced zero growth but appear to have thereby performed slightly better than their counterparts elsewhere. Moderate funding of urban regeneration in combination with support to local communities is not capable of providing a remarkable boost, but it may bring about improvements for the residential population without accelerating gentrification. |
| Abstract: | Die regionalökonomische Literatur legt nahe, dass ein regionaler Wirtschaftsaufschwung mit örtlichen Lohnsteigerungen verbunden ist. Im Kontext der Stadterneuerung zielen lokale Fördermaßnahmen darauf ab, den Wohlstand der Wohnbevölkerung in benachteiligten Stadtvierteln zu verbessern. Aufgrund einer wachsenden Präferenz der Haushalte für eine zentrale Wohnlage kann diese Politik jedoch eine Gentrifizierung herbeiführen bzw. verstärken, wenn Außenstehende von neuen Arbeitsplätzen und einem verbesserten Wohnumfeld angezogen werden. Am Fallbeispiel Deutschland untersucht die Studie, ob im Zuge von Stadterneuerungsmaßnahmen in den vergangenen beiden Jahrzehnten Änderungen der Haushaltsstruktur und des lokalen Haushaltseinkommens in den Fördergebieten eingetreten sind. Die Analyse zeigt, dass kein nennenswerter Wandel der Haushaltsstruktur aufgetreten ist, der auf eine Gentrifizierung hindeuten würde. Mit Blick auf die Entwicklung der Einkommen in den vergangenen zehn Jahren wird festgestellt, dass lokale Haushalte mit mittlerem oder höherem Einkommen in den Programmgebieten mit dem allgemeinen Einkommenswachstum Schritt gehalten haben, während Haushalte mit niedrigem Einkommen kein Wachstum verzeichneten, damit aber offenbar etwas besser abschnitten als ihre Pendants in anderen Gebieten. Eine moderate Finanzierung der Stadterneuerung in Kombination mit der Unterstützung des lokalen Gemeinwesens kann zwar keinen bemerkenswerten Aufschwung bewirken, aber sie kann zu Verbesserungen für die Wohnbevölkerung führen, ohne dabei eine zur Verdrängung ärmerer Haushalte führende Gentrifizierung zu beschleunigen. |
| Keywords: | urban policy, local economies, household income, gentrification |
| JEL: | C21 C23 O18 R23 R31 R58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:335906 |
| By: | Sebastian Ritter (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Vicente Royuela (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | As the EU races to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target, regional disparities in transition progress threaten to leave some territories behind. We introduce the Regional Green Transition Performance Index (RGTP), a novel composite measure capturing progress across seven pillars (environmental; energy; circular economy and waste; sustainable development; just transition; innovation and policy; and transport and mobility) for 232 European NUTS2 regions over 14 years. Drawing on 31 indicators, we map spatial patterns and dynamic processes. Furthermore, we argue that the green transition acts as a structural force whose potential effects on regional development can be expressed along two axes: vulnerability and opportunity. We propose an alternative measure of Regional Green Transition Opportunity index (RGTO) which we combine with the existent Regional Green Transition Vulnerability index (RGTV) of RodríguezPose & Bartalucci (2024) to construct a simple 2×2 typology of regions. We translate this evidence into a policy playbook: pair risk-mitigation with opportunity-creation and embed diffusion mechanisms so gains propagate beyond individual regions. The paper contributes an open dataset, a transparent methodology to separate performance, opportunities, and vulnerabilities which responds to the EU’s performance-based policy agenda by offering a region-level monitoring tool that complements cohesion instruments (ERDF/CF/JTF/ESF+) and flags where to reduce vulnerabilities while mobilizing opportunities in the green transition. |
| Keywords: | green transition; European Union; regional inequality; green transition index. JEL classification: C43; Q56; R11; R12 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202601 |
| By: | Sebastian Ottinger; Elizaveta Zelnitskaia |
| Abstract: | Why do cities emerge where they do? This paper exploits a rule-based transport network in Imperial Russia to study the origins of urban centers. The yams postal system, introduced by the Mongols in the thirteenth century and maintained by Muscovy, required relay stations in regular intervals to change horses, creating an infrastructure grid whose spacing reflected logistics rather than geography or pre-existing settlements. We digitize all stations listed in the 1777 Russian Road Guide along a sample of 15 major routes, and divide rays between consecutive stops into 0.5 km cells. In modern satellite data, cells located at the historical interval where horses were changed are about thirty percent brighter today than neighboring cells before or after that range. The effect is robust to first- and second-nature controls, ray fixed effects, and controlling of pre-1800 settlements, and is absent for the later Trans-Siberian Railway. Additional analyses show that subsequent city growth correlates little with geographic endowments, but was amplified by later infrastructure investments, suggesting that administrative accidents – not natural advantages – seeded some of Russia’s urban geography. The findings illustrate how spatial inequality can arise from arbitrary historical coordination points, with lasting consequences for the distribution of economic activity. |
| Keywords: | City Location, Path Dependence, Transport Infrastructure, Natural Advantage |
| JEL: | N73 O18 R11 R12 H11 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp807 |
| By: | Beecham, Roger; Clark, Stephen |
| Abstract: | Estimating unknown outcomes at small-area population level is a routine task in spatial analysis. We demonstrate how Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP), now widely used in political polling, overcomes some deficiencies in Spatial Microsimulation (SPM), the de facto approach in quantitative geography. Using individual-level data from Health Survey for England and population-level data from 2021 UK Census, we evaluate MRP and SPM at estimating two known health outcomes that occur with high and low frequency in the population. With few constraints there are only slight differences in estimation between the two approaches. With more and especially area-level constraints extreme errors in the SPM estimates begin to accumulate, and these are particularly pronounced for the low-frequency outcome. Additionally, where uncertainty ranges from MRP posteriors begin to widen we find they map to groundtruthed errors, providing a useful validity check when the true population distribution is unknown. This is the first direct comparison of MRP and SPM for small-area estimation. Alongside metrics for evaluating estimates, we highlight the value of area-level variables that constrain outcomes or that may capture varying processes over spatial units, and of a principled approach to model specification and uncertainty quantification – both central to MRP practice. |
| Date: | 2026–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:erhak_v1 |