nep-geo New Economics Papers
on Economic Geography
Issue of 2025–12–15
three papers chosen by
Andreas Koch, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung
  1. Unpacking Structural Polarisation: Economic Complexity and Productivity across Italian Territories By Giuseppe Simone
  2. Measuring and Rating Socioeconomic Disparities among Provinces: A Case of Turkiye By Emre Akusta
  3. Regionale Faktoren der langfristigen Beschäftigungsentwicklung in Deutschland im Zeitraum 1999-2023 By Baumann, Doris; Buch, Tanja; Fuchs, Stefan; Hell, Stefan; Niebuhr, Annekatrin; Rossen, Anja; Sieglen, Georg; Stöckmann, Andrea; Wapler, Rüdiger
  1. By: Giuseppe Simone
    Abstract: This paper investigates the structural foundations of regional productivity divergence in Italy through the lens of economic complexity. Leveraging a newly constructed Economic Complexity Index (ECI) at the NUTS-3 level, we examine how the sophistication and diversity of local productive structures shape long-run productivity trajectories of Italian provinces over the period 2000–2021. Empirical approach combines panel data models with instrumental variable (IV-GMM) techniques, spatial econometrics, and simultaneous equation systems (3SLS) to capture the direct, spatial, and bidirectional relationships between complexity and productivity. The findings reveal that economic complexity is a robust and consistent predictor of regional labour productivity. This association is particularly strong in Northern provinces, where institutional density and in- novation ecosystems amplify the returns to complexity, and where spatial spillovers from neighbouring territories enhance local outcomes. In contrast, Southern regions experience lower returns and limited externalities, reflecting persistent development traps. Crucially, I provide the first integrated empirical evidence of a cumulative, self-reinforcing loop between complexity and productivity: more complex regions become more productive, and more productive regions are better equipped to diversify into complex activities.
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2536
  2. By: Emre Akusta
    Abstract: Regional disparities in the economic and social structures of countries have a great impact on their development levels. In geographically, culturally and economically diverse countries like Turkiye, determining the socioeconomic status of the provinces and regional differences is an important step for planning and implementing effective policies. Therefore, this study aims to determine the socioeconomic disparities of the provinces in Turkiye. For this purpose, a socioeconomic development index covering the economic and social dimensions of 81 provinces was constructed. For the index, 16 different indicators representing economic and social factors were used. These indicators were converted into indices using the Min-Max normalization method and Principal Component Analysis. Afterwards, using these indices, the provinces were divided into groups using the K-Means clustering algorithm and the Elbow method. In the last part of the study, the results are presented in a visual format using Scatter Plots, clustering maps and QGIS mapping tools. The results of the study show that 2 of the 81 provinces in Turkiye have very high, 30 high, 25 medium and 24 low socioeconomic indices. Istanbul and Ankara have very high socioeconomic status. In general, the provinces in western Turkiye have a high socioeconomic index, while the provinces in eastern and southeastern Anatolia face serious challenges in terms of socioeconomic indicators.
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.02687
  3. By: Baumann, Doris (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Buch, Tanja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Fuchs, Stefan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hell, Stefan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Niebuhr, Annekatrin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Rossen, Anja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Sieglen, Georg (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Stöckmann, Andrea (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wapler, Rüdiger (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "Regional labor markets in Germany have always been subject to different structural conditions that influence local employment growth. In recent years, the effects of demographic change, digitalization, and the ecological transformation of the economy have become increasingly visible – although very unevenly across regions – and have in turn shaped regional employment dynamics. The project “Vergleichende Analyse von Länderarbeitsmärkten – VALA 2025” analyses differences in regional employment dynamics between 1999 and 2023. Using a shift-share regression approach, it identifies factors contributing to these disparities. The analysis considers the effects of regional industry, skills, and firm-size structures, the influence of location-specific characteristics, as well as demographic factors on employment growth. A particular focus is placed on differences between East and West German regions and between different structural types of districts. On a national scale, the number of jobs subject to social insurance contributions increased by around 22 percent during the study period. However, this average masks considerable regional disparities in employment dynamics, with a range of about 120 percentage points. While most district types in West Germany experienced positive employment growth during the period, this was true in East Germany only for the majority of independent large cities and urban districts. Our regression results suggest that various structural differences and location-specific characteristics of regional labour markets account for the substantial variance in regional employment dynamics. We also find systematic disparities between district structure types in East and West Germany. A sectoral structure advantageous to employment growth particularly benefits large cities, which specialize in dynamic service industries. Another factor fostering employment growth in major urban labour markets is the skill structure of the labour force, especially the above-average share of highly qualified workers. With regard to the effect of skills, significant East-West disparities exist as well, with East German regions benefitting from a relatively low share of unskilled workers. By contrast, the firm-size structure tends to dampen employment growth in large cities, whereas in less densely populated regions, the predominantly small-scale firm structure promotes growth. Favourable location-specific conditions are often found in larger cities, with East German regions lagging behind West German ones in this respect. The same applies to the age-structure effect: negative impacts of an aging workforce during the study period were observed predominantly in the eastern part of the country. Both the substantial differences in regional employment dynamics and the highly differentiated impact of various influencing factors suggest that labour market and regional policy also needs to vary greatly across regions. In particular, improving the skills structure through education and training may offer potential to positively influence employment dynamics in many regions. Regarding demographic developments, the key challenges are to attract young and well-qualified workers and to maintain the productivity of older workers through increased participation in further training." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Date: 2025–12–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202525
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