nep-geo New Economics Papers
on Economic Geography
Issue of 2022‒06‒27
nine papers chosen by
Andreas Koch
Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung

  1. Labor force aging and the composition of regional human capital By Prenzel, Paula; Iammarino, Simona
  2. Dynamic spatial general equilibrium By Benny Kleinman; Ernest Liu; Stephen J. Redding
  3. The Long-Run Effects of Immigration: Evidence Across a Barrier to Refugee Settlement By Antonio Ciccone; Jan Nimczik
  4. Micro-geographic property price and rent indices By Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Stephan Heblich; Tobias Seidel
  5. Improving the Quality of Regional Economic Indicators in the UK: A Framework for the Production of Supply and Use and Input Output Tables for the Four Nations By Sharada Nia Davidson; James Black; Kevin Connolly; Mairi Spowage
  6. Measuring the Value of Urban Consumption Amenities: A Time-Use Approach By Su, Yichen
  7. Growing Differently: A Structural Classification for European NUTS-3 Regions By Jan Weber, Jan Schulz
  8. The Right to Rule by Thumb: A Comment on Epistemology in "A Route Map for Successful Applications of Geographically-Weighted Regression" By Wolf, Levi John
  9. Gleichwertige Lebensverhältnisse - ein Messkonzept regionaler Lebensverhältnisse By Dahlbeck, Elke; Flögel, Franz; Milbert, Antonia; Neu, Marc

  1. By: Prenzel, Paula; Iammarino, Simona
    Abstract: Human capital investments are frequently suggested as a policy measure to cope with smaller and older labor forces caused by demographic change across Europe. However, the availability and composition of human capital is fundamentally intertwined with demographic structures, especially at a regional level. This article analyzes how aging is related to the regional composition of human capital for German regions between 2000 and 2010. The findings show that labor force aging is associated with lower educational attainment and that older labor forces have higher shares of traditional vocational degrees. On a national level, education expansion still sufficiently compensates for the effects of population aging, but regional human capital composition shows distinct trends.
    Keywords: demographic change; human capital; regional development; ES/M008436/1; 1378766
    JEL: R10 R12 R23 J21 J24
    Date: 2021–03–15
  2. By: Benny Kleinman; Ernest Liu; Stephen J. Redding
    Abstract: We develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with forward-looking investment and migration decisions. We characterize analytically the transition path of the spatial distribution of economic activity in response to shocks. We apply our framework to the re-allocation of US economic activity from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt from 1965-2015. We find slow convergence to steady-state, with US states closer to steady-state at the end of our sample period than at its beginning. We find substantial heterogeneity in the effects of local shocks, which depend on capital and labor dynamics, and the spatial and sectoral incidence of these shocks.
    Keywords: spatial dynamics, economic geography, trade, migration
    Date: 2021–07–28
  3. By: Antonio Ciccone; Jan Nimczik
    Abstract: After the end of World War II in 1945, millions of refugees arrived in what in 1949 became the Federal Republic of Germany. We examine their effect on today’s productivity, wages, income, rents, education, and population density at the municipality level. Our identification strategy is based on a spatial discontinuity in refugee settlement at the border between the French and US occupation zones in the South-West of post-war Germany. These occupation zones were established in 1945 and dissolved in 1949. The spatial discontinuity arose because the US zone admitted refugees during the 1945-1949 occupation period whereas the French zone restricted access. By 1950, refugee settlement had raised population density on the former US side of the 1945-1949 border significantly above density on the former French side. Before the war, there never had been significant differences in population density. The higher density on the former US side persists entirely in 2020 and coincides with higher rents as well as higher productivity, wages, and education levels. We examine whether today’s economic differences across the former border are the result of the difference in refugee admission; the legacy of other policy differences between the 1945-1949 occupation zones; or the consequence of socio-economic differences predating WWII. Taken together, our results indicate that today’s economic differences are the result of agglomeration effects triggered by the arrival of refugees in the former US zone. We estimate that exposure to the arrival of refugees raised income per capita by around 13% and hourly wages by around 10%.
    Keywords: Immigration, productivity, wages, refugees, long-run effects
    JEL: O4 O11 R11
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Stephan Heblich; Tobias Seidel
    Abstract: We develop a programming algorithm that predicts a balanced-panel mix-adjusted house price index for arbitrary spatial units from repeated cross-sections of geocoded micro data. The algorithm combines parametric and non-parametric estimation techniques to provide a tight local fit where the underlying micro data are abundant and reliable extrapolations where data are sparse. To illustrate the functionality, we generate a panel of German property prices and rents that is unprecedented in its spatial coverage and detail. This novel data set uncovers a battery of stylized facts that motivate further research, e.g. on the density bias of price-to-rent ratios in levels and trends, within and between cities. Our method lends itself to the creation of comparable neighborhood-level qualified price and rent indices for residential and commercial property.
    Keywords: index, real estate, price, property, rent
    Date: 2021–07–20
  5. By: Sharada Nia Davidson; James Black; Kevin Connolly; Mairi Spowage
    Abstract: With increased devolution of powers, the UK's departure from the EU and Covid-19 having different impacts on different areas of the UK, timely regional economic statistics are needed to support regional and national policymaking. This paper develops a strategic framework for the production of supply and use tables (SUTs) and input output tables (IOTs) for the four nations of the UK. Our proposed framework is supported by three pieces of analysis. First, we undertake a comprehensive review of different methods for constructing regional SUTs and IOTs and current international practise. Second, we discuss how the Scottish, Northern Irish and UK SUTs and IOTs are produced and the challenges faced in their construction. Third, we compare the existing Scottish IOT, produced using hybrid methods, with the Scottish IOT we obtain through top-down regionalisation of the UK IOT using location quotients. We conclude our paper by outlining nine key recommendations.
    Keywords: hybrid method, input-output, location quotient, non-survey method, regionalisation
    JEL: C67 C83 O18 R15
    Date: 2022–05
  6. By: Su, Yichen
    Abstract: Existing studies show that the rising spatial segregation between skill groups in the U.S. led to increasing inequality of amenity access. Access to consumption amenities, in particular, is often highlighted as an important driver of local amenity profile. However, quantifying the inequality of access to consumption amenities is often faced with two challenges. First, because consumption amenities, such as restaurants, often benefit residents living beyond the immediate vicinity of the amenities, researchers must account for how the amenity benefits diffuse through space. Second, to evaluate how much the access to consumption amenities contributes to the overall value of local amenity profiles, researchers must identify the proper aggregation weights. I present a model of amenity choice that provides the micro-foundation for accounting for spatial diffusion and aggregation weights. The model can be disciplined by the empirical patterns of people's time use interacting with the amenities. I demonstrate that correctly accounting for spatial diffusion and aggregation weights is important for accurately measuring the inequality of access to consumption amenities.
    Keywords: amenities; spatial; time-use; travel; consumption; urban; CES; preference
    JEL: L80 R13 R41
    Date: 2022–03–07
  7. By: Jan Weber, Jan Schulz
    Abstract: We document two novel stylized facts on European integration and cohesion. First, we show that the interregional income distribution, measured as GDP per capita at the NUTS-3 level, is bimodal for all considered years. Second, we demonstrate that this mixture of two log-normal distributions provides an excellent fit for this interregional distribution in all considered years. We put forward two meso-level interpretations of these stylized facts, based on heterodox growth theory: The log-normality of the individual clusters hints at a stochastically multiplicative process, where growth is strongly path-dependent. This can be derived from maximum entropy considerations. However, the bimodality in the income distributions also implies two separate growth mechanisms. We show that the high-variance log-normal distribution governs the dynamics at both tails of the income distribution, which might be interpreted as the core and periphery and the low-variance variant the bulk of the distribution, thus interpretable as a semi-periphery.
    Keywords: Inequality; Europe; Maximum Entropy; Geometric Brownian Motion; Core; Periphery; Resilience JEL Classification: C46, D63, F15, F43, C14, C63
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Wolf, Levi John (University of Bristol)
    Abstract: Comber et al. (2022) provides an important contribution to the future of quantitative geography and geographic analysis. The contribution is chiefly in their development of a "GWR Route Map," a diagram showing the sequence of analytical steps that "successful" specification searches in local modelling tend to follow. Geographically-weighted techniques have been rapidly expanding, both in terms of complexity, users, and disciplinary reach. With geographically-weighted methods now in so many more analysts' hands, any new rule of thumb will have a major imprint. But, by what right does the thumb rule the analysts? That is, what "counts" as valid knowledge about local models in general? In the following comment, I argue that we probably should use theory, not route maps to decide specifications. But, if we're pressed to build route maps, we sorely need better epistemological foundations for them. I discuss a few previous examples of strongly-grounded route maps and offer a few paths to these better grounds as well as two ways to the exit.
    Date: 2022–05–19
  9. By: Dahlbeck, Elke; Flögel, Franz; Milbert, Antonia; Neu, Marc
    Abstract: Many measurement concepts of equal living conditions fail to meet central scientific requirements. A comparison and assessment of the equivalence of living conditions has therefore been difficult up to now. This paper presents a newly developed measurement concept that addresses the most frequent points of criticism. A two-stage measurement concept is proposed. In a first step, the regions are grouped into seven types of areas based on the dimensions "social situation", "economic intensity" and "population development/age structure". In a second stage, these types of areas can be used to better analyse and evaluate more specific indicators or further dimensions of equal living conditions with regard to their effect on socially disadvantaged and/or elderly people. This two-stage approach allows the indicators of the second stage to be considered at the appropriate spatial level of detail, i.e. at the raster, municipality, district or functional spatial level. Examples of this are shown. The interpretation and evaluation of these indicators in terms of equal living conditions were validated through workshops and interviews in three case studies, the city of Gelsenkirchen and the districts of Dithmarschen and Mansfeld-Südharz. The article concludes with an outlook on upcoming steps for further development with regard to continuous monitoring on the basis of this measurement concept.
    Keywords: Armut,accessibility,Chancengleichheit,Daseinsvorsorge,Gerechtigkeit,Grundversorgung,gleichwertige Lebensverhältnisse,regionale Ungleichheit,demografischer Wandel,Wohlstand
    Date: 2022

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