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on Economic Geography |
| By: | Antonio Ciccone; Jan Nimczik |
| Abstract: | After the end of World War II in 1945, millions of refugees arrived in what in 1949 became the Federal Republic of Germany. We examine their effect on today’s productivity, wages, income, rents, education, and population density at the municipality level. Our identification strategy is based on a spatial discontinuity in refugee settlement at the border between the French and US occupation zones in the South-West of post-war Germany. These occupation zones were established in 1945 and dissolved in 1949. The spatial discontinuity arose because the US zone admitted refugees during the 1945-1949 occupation period whereas the French zone restricted access. By 1950, refugee settlement had raised population density on the former US side of the 1945-1949 border significantly above density on the former French side. Before the war, there never had been significant differences in population density. The higher density on the former US side persists entirely in 2020 and coincides with higher rents as well as higher productivity, wages, and education levels. We examine whether today’s economic differences across the former border are the result of the difference in refugee admission; the legacy of other policy differences between the 1945-1949 occupation zones; or the consequence of socio-economic differences predating WWII. Taken together, our results indicate that today’s economic differences are the result of agglomeration effects triggered by the arrival of refugees in the former US zone. We estimate that exposure to the arrival of refugees raised income per capita by around 13% and hourly wages by around 10%. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9679&r= |
| By: | Lei Dong; Paolo Santi; Yu Liu; Siqi Zheng; Carlo Ratti |
| Abstract: | Commuting is a key mechanism that governs the dynamics of cities. Despite its importance, very little is known of the properties and mechanisms underlying this crucial urban process. Here, we capitalize on $\sim$ 50 million individuals' smartphone data from 234 Chinese cities to show that urban commuting obeys remarkable regularities. These regularities can be generalized as two laws: (i) the scale-invariance of the average commuting distance across cities, which is a long-awaited validation of Marchetti's constant conjecture, and (ii) a universal inverted U-shape of the commuting distance as a function of the distance from the city centre within cities, indicating that the city centre's attraction is bounded. Motivated by such empirical findings, we develop a simple urban growth model that connects individual-level mobility choices with macroscopic urban spatial structure and faithfully explains both commuting laws. Our results further show that the scale-invariants of human mobility will ultimately lead to the polycentric transition in cities, which could be used to better inform urban development strategies. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.12865&r= |
| By: | Philipp Otto |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a multivariate spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model based on a vec-representation. The model includes instantaneous spatial autoregressive spill-over effects in the conditional variance, as they are usually present in spatial econometric applications. Furthermore, spatial and temporal cross-variable effects are explicitly modelled. We transform the model to a multivariate spatiotemporal autoregressive model using a log-squared transformation and derive a consistent quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator (QMLE). For finite samples and different error distributions, the performance of the QMLE is analysed in a series of Monte-Carlo simulations. In addition, we illustrate the practical usage of the new model with a real-world example. We analyse the monthly real-estate price returns for three different property types in Berlin from 2002 to 2014. We find weak (instantaneous) spatial interactions, while the temporal autoregressive structure in the market risks is of higher importance. Interactions between the different property types only occur in the temporally lagged variables. Thus, we see mainly temporal volatility clusters and weak spatial volatility spill-overs. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.12472&r= |
| By: | Fil Kristensen, Iryna (HEC Montreal); Pugh, Rhiannon (CIRCLE, Lund University); Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | t.b.d. |
| Keywords: | smart specialisation; change agency; regional development |
| JEL: | R58 |
| Date: | 2022–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2022_006&r= |
| By: | Karina Acosta; Jaime Bonet-Morón |
| Abstract: | Los estudios que pretenden responder si las zonas más prósperas de Colombia crecen a menor ritmo que aquellas con mayor rezago relativo han arrojado resultados dispares. Este documento actualiza las estimaciones de la convergencia beta incondicional del PIB per cápita para los primeros años del siglo XXI, donde se han observado importantes cambios estructurales. Adicionalmente, el estudio descompone la convergencia beta por cambios sectoriales y mide su estabilidad ante variaciones del año inicial de comparación. Este análisis se complementó con el estudio de la convergencia de otros indicadores sociales y económicos. Los resultados sugieren una beta creciente, aunque no significativa, indicando una transición de una leve convergencia a un periodo de divergencia. Además, los principales contribuyentes a la convergencia durante mayor parte del período son los sectores de minas y canteras, y el sector público. En contraste, existe evidencia de convergencia de los ingresos fiscales per cápita y una reducción más rápida de la pobreza multidimensional en las zonas con menor pobreza inicial en el último período intercensal. **** ABSTRACT: The studies aiming to answer if wealthier areas in Colombia are growing at a slower pace than poorer areas have yielded mixed results. This chapter updates such estimates of unconditional beta convergence of the GDP per capita for the first years of the 21st century, when substantial changes occurred. Furthermore, we decompose the beta by sectorial changes throughout the period while estimating it with a moving starting year. This assessment was supplemented by a convergence analysis of additional social and economic indicators. Our results suggest an increasing, yet nonsignificant, beta, indicating that Colombia is moving from a subtle convergence to a more frequent period of divergence. Moreover, we find that the primer convergence forces from most of the period are mines and quarrying along with the public sector. In contrast, there is strong evidence of tax revenues per capita convergence and an apparent faster reduction of multidimensional poverty in wealthier areas in the last intercensal period. |
| Keywords: | Convergencia, beta, PIB per cápita, departamentos, Colombia, convergence, beta, GDP per capita, departments, Colombia |
| JEL: | O47 R11 R12 C21 C12 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:region:308&r= |