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on Economic Geography |
| By: | Michael Iacono; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose to measure the extent of the inßuence of transportation systems on land use change. Using a set of high-resolution land use data for the Twin Cities metropolitan region, we estimate logistic regression models of land use change covering a 10-year period from 1990 to 2000. The models account for existing land use types, neighboring land uses, and transportation network variables that measure the physical proximity of highway networks, as well as the level of accessibility associated with a speciÞc location. The models are esti- mated with and without the transportation variables and compared to assess the extent of their inßuence. We Þnd (perhaps not surprisingly) that transportation-related variables exert some inßuence on changes to land use patterns, though not as much as variables representing existing and neighboring land uses. |
| Keywords: | Land use, Twin Cities (Minnesota), Mathematical models, urban growth |
| JEL: | R41 R48 D63 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:predictinglandusechange&r=geo |
| By: | Berliant, Marcus; Kung, Fan-chin |
| Abstract: | The modern literature on city formation and development, for example the New Economic Geography literature, has studied the agglomeration of agents in size or mass. We investigate agglomeration in sorting or by type of worker, that implies agglomeration in size when worker populations differ by type. This kind of agglomeration can be driven by asymmetric information in the labor market, specifically when firms do not know if a particular worker is of high or low skill. In a model with two types and two regions, workers of different skill levels are offered separating contracts in equilibrium. When mobile low skill worker population rises or there is technological change that favors high skilled workers, integration of both types of workers in the same region at equilibrium becomes unstable, whereas sorting of worker types into different regions in equilibrium remains stable. The instability of integrated equilibria results from firms, in the region to which workers are perturbed, offering attractive contracts to low skill workers when there is a mixture of workers in the region of origin. |
| Keywords: | Adverse Selection; Agglomeration |
| JEL: | R13 R12 D82 |
| Date: | 2008–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9951&r=geo |
| By: | Andrea Vaona (Facoltà di Economia, Università di Lugano, Svizzera); Guido Ascari (Dipartimento di Economia e Metodi Quantitativi, Facoltà di Economia, Università di Pavia, Italia) |
| Abstract: | Regional patterns of inflation persistence have received attention only at a very coarse level of territorial disaggregation, that of EMU member states. However economic disparities within EMU member states are an equally important policy issue. This paper considers a country with a large regional divide, i.e., Italy, at a fine level of territorial disaggregation (NUTS3). Our results show that economically backward regions display greater inflation persistence. Moreover, we show that higher persistence is linked to a lower degree of competitiveness in the retail sector. |
| Keywords: | inflation persistence, retail sector, regions. |
| JEL: | E0 E30 R0 R10 |
| Date: | 2007–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lug:wpaper:0807&r=geo |
| By: | Feng Xie; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a causality analysis of the coupled development of population and streetcars in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Historic residence and network data were assembled for 1900-1930, and linear cross-sectional time-series models were estimated at both a tract and block level using this data. It is found that, in contrast with transportation systems that were expanded in response to increased demand, the rapid expansion of the streetcar system during the electric era has been driven by other forces and to a large extent led land development in the Twin Cities. The main forces that have driven this process include technological superiority, monopoly, close con- nections with real estate business, and peopleÕs reliance on the streetcar for mobility. Proximity to the streetcar is found to be a crucial factor that determines the distribu- tion and development of residences: it is observed that residential density declines with the distance from streetcar lines, and signiÞcantly drops beyond a walkable distance; it is also observed that gaining a closer access to streetcar lines within 800 meters (about a half mile) predicts the increase in residential density to a signiÞcant extent. |
| Keywords: | Transport, land use, Twin Cities (Minnesota), Streetcars, Light Rail Transit, network growth, induced demand, induced supply |
| JEL: | R42 R31 R21 N73 N74 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:streetcar&r=geo |
| By: | Nikolas Geroliminis; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the modeling of recurring congestion in a network. It is shown that the standard economic models of marginal cost cannot describe precisely traffic congestion in networks during time-dependent conditions. Following a macroscopic traffic approach, we describe the equilibrium solution for a congested network in the no-toll case. A dynamic model of cordon-based congestion pricing (such as for the morning commute) for networks is developed consistent with the physics of traffic.Ê The paper combines VickreyÕs theory with a macroscopic traffic model, which is readily observable with existing monitoring technologies. The paper also examines some policy implications of the cordon-based pricing to treat equity and reliability issues, i.e. in what mobility level a city should choose to operate. An application of the model in a downtown area shows that these schemes can improve mobility and relieve congestion in cities. |
| Keywords: | Cordon Pricing, Congestion Pricing, Road Pricing, Value Pricing, Social Equity |
| JEL: | R41 R48 D63 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:cordonpricingovercrowding&r=geo |
| By: | Christoph Grimpe (Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, Germany; Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium; University of Zurich, Switzerland); Roberto Patuelli (Institute for Economic Research (IRE), University of Lugano, Switzerland; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Rimini, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Nanomaterials are seen as a key technology for the 21st Century, and much is expected of them in terms of innovation and economic growth. They could open the way to many radically new applications, which would form the basis of innovative products. In this context, it seems all the more important for regions to put their own innovation systems in place, and to ensure that they offer a suitable location for such activities in order to benefit from the expected growth. Many regions have already done so by establishing ‘science parks’ and ‘nanoclusters’. As nanomaterials are still in their infancy, both public research institutes and private businesses could play a vital role in the process. This paper investigates what conditions and configurations allow a regional innovation system to be competitive in a cutting-edge technology like nanomaterials. We analyse European Patent Office data at the German district level (NUTS-3) on applications for nanomaterial patents, in order to chart the effects of localised research and development (R&D) in the public and private sector. We estimate two negative binomial models in a knowledge production function framework and include a spatial filtering approach to adjust for spatial effects. Our results indicate that there is a significant positive effect of both public and private R&D on the production of nanomaterial patents. Moreover, we find a positive interaction between them which hints at the importance of their co-location for realising the full potential of an emerging technology like nanomaterials. |
| Keywords: | nanotechnology, innovation, patents, Germany, spatial autocorrelation, spatial filtering |
| JEL: | L60 O32 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lug:wpaper:0806&r=geo |
| By: | Nebiyou Tilahun; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Relocation decisions are complex. Each household has a bundle of attributes that make a location attractive to it, including the ability to access different activity locations easily, neighborhood quality, house amenities etc. Relocating households have an opportunity to Þnd housing closer to their work. Using data collected in the Twin Cities area, we investigate how distance to home and travel time to home change among individuals who have changed their residence since they started their current job. Comparing the home-to-work distance after the move to the previous-home-to-work distance, we Þnd that the average home to work distance is reduced as a result of the move. We also Þnd that the reduction depend on the previous home to work distance as well as the previous homesÕ proximity to downtown Minneapolis. The Þndings show that households that are either very close to their work, or very close to down- town, or both did not signiÞcantly increase or decrease their commute after relocation. This suggests that access to work as well as access to the opportunities that proximity to downtown offers (to jobs, urban spaces, etc.) are important in the decision making process. |
| Keywords: | Journey to Work, Commuting, Relocation, Tenure, Jobs, Minnesota, Minneapolis |
| JEL: | R41 R48 D63 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:relocationjourneytowork&r=geo |
| By: | Arthur Huang; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Clusters of business locations, which considerably impact daily activities, have been promi- nent phenomena. Yet the question of how and why Þrms cluster in certain areas has not been sufÞciently studied. This paper investigates the emergence of clusters of business locations on a supply chain network comprised of suppliers, retailers, and, consumers. Krugman (1996) argued that urban concentration involved a tension between the ÒcentripetalÓ and the Òcen- trifugalÓ forces. Based on that notion, this research proposes an agent-based model of retail- ersÕ location choice in a market of homogeneous products. In this game, retailers endeavor to maximize their proÞts by changing locations. RetailersÕ distribution patterns are measured by entropy and cluster density. Simulation results reveal that as more retailers engage in the game, clusters autonomously emerge and the entropy of clusters increases. Once retailers exceed a certain number, average density of clusters begins to decline; all discrete clusters gradually merge to a large cluster, spreading out uniformly. This research thus Þnds that the centripetal force attracts retailers to supplier locations; with even more retailers entering the market, the centrifugal force disperses them. The sensitivity results on model parameters and consumersÕ demand elasticity are also discussed. |
| Keywords: | clustering, supply chain network, location choice, distribution pattern |
| JEL: | R41 R48 D63 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:cluster&r=geo |
| By: | Vasco Leite (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto.); Sofia B.S.D. Castro (CMUP and Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto.); João Correia-da-Silva (CEMPRE and Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto.) |
| Abstract: | We generalize the model of Krugman (1991) to allow for asymmetric trade costs between regions and for (asymmetric) trade costs that are internal to the regions. We find that industrial activity, in a region, is enhanced by higher costs of importing and lower costs of exporting (more precisely, by a higher ratio between the two trade costs). This suggests that countries may impose tariffs on imported goods and seek to remove the import tariffs in other countries (unilateral protectionism) in order to foster industrial activity. Industrial activity is also promoted by lower domestic internal trade costs and higher foreign internal trade costs (more precisely, by a lower ratio between the two trade costs). |
| Keywords: | New Economic Geography, Core-Periphery, Trade costs, Unilateral protectionism. |
| JEL: | F12 F15 F21 R12 R13 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:por:fepwps:287&r=geo |
| By: | Michael Iacono; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Transportation analysts and the public decision-makers they support are confronted with a broad range of analytical tools for estimating the economic impacts of improvements to trans- portation networks. Many of the available models operate at different scales and have distinctly different structures, making them more or less appropriate for analyzing the impacts of differ- ent types of projects. Here, we review several of the economic methods and models that have been developed for analyzing the impact of transportation improvements, giving special atten- tion to types of projects that add highway capacity in urban areas. We review project-based methods, including beneÞt-cost analysis and several analytical software tools developed by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) for economic analysis of transportation investment. We then move on to aggregate and disaggregate-level econometric methods, including regional economic models, hedonic price functions, production functions and cliometric analyses. We also devote some attention to the role of induced demand in economic evaluation, since it is of- ten one of the most uncertain and confounding factors faced by those charged with conducting economic evaluation of transportation projects. |
| Keywords: | Economic Impact, Benefit-Cost Analysis |
| JEL: | R41 R48 D63 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:estimatingeconomicimpact&r=geo |
| By: | Nicholas Longford |
| Abstract: | We derive a class of composite estimators of small-area quantities that exploit spatial (distance-related) similarity. They are based on a distribution-free model for the areas, but the estimators are aimed to have optimal design-based properties. Composition is applied also to estimating some of the global parameters on which the small-area estimators depend. We show that the commonly adopted assumption of random effects is not necessary for exploiting the similarity of the districts (borrowing strength across the districts). The methods are applied to estimation of the mean household sizes and the proportions of single-member households in the counties (comarcas) of Catalonia. |
| Keywords: | Auxiliary information, composite estimation, design-based estimator, exploiting similarity, model-based estimator, multivariate shrinkage, small-area estimation, spatial similarity |
| JEL: | C1 C13 C14 C15 C4 C42 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1105&r=geo |
| By: | Feng Xie; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the e?ects of I-35W bridge collapse on road-users in the Twin- Cities metropolitan area. We adopted the Twin-Cities (Metropolitan Minneapolis and St. Paul) Seven-County travel demand model developed in previous research, re-calibrated it against July 2007 loop detector tra?c data, and used this model to carry out an evaluation of economic loss incurred by increased travel delay in alter- native scenarios before and after the bridge collapse. We concluded that the failure of the I-35W bridge resulted in an economic loss of $71,000 to $220,000 a day, de- pending on how ßexible road-users in the system can adjust their trip destinations in response to the bridge closing. We also estimated that the major tra?c restoration pro jects Mn/DOT has implemented in quick response to the bridge collapse can save road-users $9,500 to $17,500 a day. This translates into a beneÞt-cost ratio of 2.0-9.0, suggesting these pro jects are highly beneÞciary in an economic sense. In this analysis, the use of a simpliÞed, scaled-down travel demand model enabled us to carry out the analysis quickly and accurately, showing its contributions in transportation planning under situations such as emergency relief and comprehensive design. |
| Keywords: | I-35W Bridge, Minnesota, Minneapolis, Economic Evaluation |
| JEL: | R41 R48 D63 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:i-35w-trb2009-bridgeregion&r=geo |
| By: | Pavithra Parthasarathi; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects in Minnesota and identiÞes the factors inßuencing the inaccuracy in forecasts. The forecast traffic data for this study is drawn from Environmental Impact Statements(EIS), Transportation Analysis Reports (TAR) and other forecast reports produced by the Minnesota Department of Transportation (Mn/DOT) with a horizon forecast year of 2010 or earlier. The actual traffic data is compiled from the database of traffic counts maintained by the Office of Traffic Forecasting and Analysis section at Mn/DOT. Based on recent research on forecast accuracy, the (in)accuracy of traffic forecasts is estimated as a ratio of the forecast traffic to the actual traffic. The estimation of forecast (in)accuracy also involves a comparison of the socioeconomic and demographic assumptions, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went into generating the traffic forecasts against actual conditions. The analysis indicates a general trend of underestimation in roadway traffic forecasts with factors such as highway type, functional classiÞcation, direction playing an inßuencing role. Roadways with higher volumes and higher functional classiÞcations such as freeways are subject to underestimation compared to lower volume roadways/functional classiÞcations. The comparison of demographic forecasts shows a trend of overestimation while the comparison of travel behavior characteristics indicates a lack of incorporation of fundamental shifts and societal changes. |
| Keywords: | Minnesota, Minneapolis, Travel Demand Model, Transportation Planning, Forecasting |
| JEL: | R41 R48 D63 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:forecastaccuracy&r=geo |
| By: | Shanjiang Zhu; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Travel decisions may be very stable in an environment with which they are familiar. Major network disruptions such as the I-35W bridge collapse disrupt habitual behavior. Such "natural" experiments provide unique opportunities for behavioral studies, but the time window for such studies is limited. A well-developed methodology is crucial for both data collection and analysis, and thus the soundness of behavioral models, especially in such a limited time window. Therefore, this paper reviews both theoretical and empirical studies on traffic and behavioral impacts of network disruptions. Findings from this paper others prospective ideas about capturing the impacts of network disruption. |
| Keywords: | Network disruption; Travel survey; Travel behavior |
| JEL: | R41 R48 D63 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:disruptionreview&r=geo |