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on Economic Geography |
| By: | Cameron, Gavin; Muellbauer, John; Murphy, Anthony |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity. The results are data consistent, with plausible long-run solutions and include a full range of explanatory variables. Novel features of the model include transaction cost effects influencing the speed of adjustment, and interaction effects between an index of credit availability and real and nominal interest rates. No evidence for a recent bubble is found. |
| Keywords: | bubble; house prices; ripple effect |
| JEL: | C51 E39 |
| Date: | 2006–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5619&r=geo |
| By: | Wouter Vermeulen |
| Abstract: | The existence of regional support programs presumes that labour markets in the Netherlands do not clear at the national, but at some local level. From a general equilibrium perspective, it is far from straightforward to identify the regional dimension of labour markets. This study argues that the size and persistence of regional unemployment and participation differentials are an appropriate indicator. We analyse regional unemployment and participation in the Netherlands from 1975 until 2003. Empirically, differences in inactivity do not seem to be a reliable indicator of the regional component of labour markets. Both from an international perspective, and in comparison to variation of labour market conditions over the business cycle, the regional dimension of labour markets appears to be small. However, it is relatively large for women, youths and the lower educated, which are the least mobile groups. It would be efficient to aim regional labour market programs at these groups, if such programs are desirable at all. |
| Keywords: | regional labour markets; (hidden) unemployment; participation |
| JEL: | J61 J64 R13 R23 |
| Date: | 2006–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:docmnt:113&r=geo |
| By: | Roberto Patuelli (Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Aura Reggiani (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy); Peter Nijkamp (Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Uwe Blien (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, a set of neural network (NN) models is developed to compute short-term forecasts of regional employment patterns in Germany. NNs are modern statistical tools based on learning algorithms that are able to process large amounts of data. NNs are enjoying increasing interest in several fields, because of their effectiveness in handling complex data sets when the functional relationship between dependent and independent variables is not explicitly specified. The present paper compares two NN methodologies. First, it uses NNs to forecast regional employment in both the former West and East Germany. Each model implemented computes single estimates of employment growth rates for each German district, with a 2-year forecasting range. Next, additional forecasts are computed, by combining the NN methodology with Shift-Share Analysis (SSA). Since SSA aims to identify variations observed among the labour districts, its results are used as further explanatory variables in the NN models. The data set used in our experiments consists of a panel of 439 German districts. Because of differences in the size and time horizons of the data, the forecasts for West and East Germany are computed separately. The out-of-sample forecasting ability of the models is evaluated by means of several appropriate statistical indicators. |
| Keywords: | networks; forecasts; regional employment; shift-share analysis; shift-share regression |
| JEL: | C23 E27 R12 |
| Date: | 2006–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20060020&r=geo |
| By: | Justin Yifu Lin (China Center for Economic Research, Peking University); Peilin Liu (Development Research Center of the State Council) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose that a flawed development strategy is responsible for the increasing disparities in economic development among provinces in China. Since the founding of the PRC, the government has pushed a "leap forward" strategy emphasizing the development of capital-intensive heavy industries. In most provinces, however, the priority industries under this strategy were inconsistent with the comparitive advantage determined by the factor endowments in those provinces. Many enterprises in the priority industries were not viable in the competitive market and required interventions in the merkets by the government to support and protect them. Consequently, this leap-forward strategy retarded the functions of market, impeded capital accumulation and hindered technology and productivity progress in the provinces. The provinces in the central and western provinces continue to follow the leap-forward strategy and have poor growth performance Therefore, it is imperitive to replace tha comparitive advantage-defying leap-forward strategy with a comparative advantage-following strategy and restructure the existing industries in each province according to the princple of comparitive advantage. This latter strategy would enhance coordinated development among regions and provinces and, in effect, work more effectively to create sustainable national economic development. The regional effects of economic strategies in China are the subject of this paper. |
| Keywords: | economic strategies, China, regional effects, development, PRC, leap-forward approach, capital-intensive, heavy industries, comparitive advantage |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R58 O12 |
| Date: | 2005–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:develo:656&r=geo |
| By: | Daniel C. Monchuk; John Miranowski; Dermot J. Hayes (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); Bruce A. Babcock (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center (MATRIC)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine some of the economic forces that underlie economic growth at the county level. In an effort to describe a much more comprehensive regional economic growth model, we address a variety of different growth hypotheses by introducing a large number of growth related variables. When formulating our hypotheses and specifying our growth model we make liberal use of GIS (geographical information systems) mapping software to "paint" a picture of where growth spots exist. Our empirical estimation indicates that amenities, state and local tax burdens, population, amount of primary agriculture activity, and demographics have important impacts on economic growth. |
| Keywords: | amenities, fiscal policy, rural income growth. |
| Date: | 2005–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:05-wp392&r=geo |
| By: | Mangematin, V.; Rip, A.; Delemarle, A.; Robinson, D.K.R. |
| Abstract: | In the case of new technologies like nanotechnology, institutional entrepreneurs appear who have to act at different levels (organizational, regional, national) at the same time. We reconstruct, in some detail, the history of two cases, in Grenoble and in Twente/Netherlands. An intriguing finding is that institutional entrepreneurs build their environment before changing their institution. They first mobilize European support to convince local and national levels before actual cluster building occurs. Only later will there be reactions against any de-institutionalisation caused at the base location. The Dutch case shows another notable finding: when mobilizing support the entrepreneur will have to agree to further conditions, and then ends up in a different situation (a broad national consortium) than originally envisaged (the final cluster involved a collaboration of Twente with two other centres). In general, an institutional entrepreneur attempts to create momentum, and when this is achieved, he has to follow rather than lead it. |
| Keywords: | INSTITUTIONAL ENTREPRENEUR; DEINSTITUTIONALISATION; CLUSTER; LOCATION; EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES; PROMISE; NANOTECHNOLOGY |
| JEL: | M13 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gbl:wpaper:200515&r=geo |
| By: | Shu-ichi Akiyama; Nobuhiro Hosoe |
| Abstract: | A key intention of the regulatory reform of transmission charge schemes on Japan's electric power market was to promote inter-regional competition between power suppliers by lowering long-distance transmission charges with a postage-stamp charge scheme. This can lead to extensive use of inter-regional links and cause congestion. Congestion segments the market into several regional markets, making the reform less successful. We developed a nine-region spatial equilibrium model to simulate the reform at the peak-load hour. We found the reform would lead to significant increases of inter-regional transmission and congestion at the link between the 50-Hz area and the 60-Hz area. |
| Date: | 2006–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:06022&r=geo |
| By: | Peter Rowland |
| Abstract: | The study presented here looks at the Colombian corporate sector broken down by city. In particular, it studies the eight main cities of the country. It is an initial study, maybe the first of its kind, and it aims to act as a foundation for future research in the area. A database obtained from the Superintendencia de Sociedades is used for the analysis. Structural differences between the cities in 2003 are studied, as well as the development of the cities between 1996 and 2003. The study shows that the 100 largest firms in the country are almost exclusively located in the country’s four largest cities. Rather more surprisingly, it shows that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are generally concentrated to the country’s larger cities, and particularly to Bogotá, while many medium-sized and smaller cities completely lack SMEs. The study also shows that, in terms of aggregate sales, the cities ha ve developed very differently. |
| Date: | 2006–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:001043:002442&r=geo |
| By: | Li Gan; Qinghua Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a search model for housing market where the number of buyers and/or sellers plays very important role. The model makes three testable predictions: (1) the unemployment rate has a negative impact on the trading volume and the sale prices of the housing market; (2) a larger housing market has a lower average sale price, shorter time-to-sale and smaller price dispersion, in addition to a lower vacancy rate. (3) In a larger housing market, when the unemployment rate goes up (or down), the sale price decreases (or increases) by a smaller percentage than in a smaller market. All three predictions are supported by a panel dataset of the Texas city-level housing markets. |
| JEL: | R0 R3 |
| Date: | 2006–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12134&r=geo |
| By: | Avenel, E.; Corolleur, F.; Gauthier, C.; Rieu, C. |
| Abstract: | Based on an original dataset, we analyze empirically the determinants of firm growth in the French biotech industry during two periods, 1996-1999 and 1999-2002. We have two main results. First, Gibrat's law is violated. The growth of annual turnover is influenced by teh initial size of the firm. The effect is non-linear, negative for small firms. Second, location has a significant impact on growth. We use different sets of dummies to characterize location and different measures of firm growth. As a whole, our results point at Marseilles (and its region) and Nanterre (but not Paris and Evry) as favorable places for the growth of firms between 1999 and 2002. For the 1996-1999, the favorable places are Strasbourg (and Alsace) and Rh“ne-Alpes (Lyon/Grenoble). Our analysis thus suggests that the changes in the (notably legal) environment of French biotech firms that took place in 1999 had a drastic effect of the comparative advantages of locations for biotech firms. |
| Keywords: | BIOTECHNOLOGY; INDUSTRIAL CLUSTERING; FIRM GROWTH; FRANCE |
| JEL: | L25 L65 R30 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gbl:wpaper:200503&r=geo |
| By: | Ghebreegziabiher Debrezion (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Eric Pels (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Piet Rietveld (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | A hedonic pricing model is estimated to analyse the impact of railways on house prices in terms of distance to railway station, frequency of railway services and distance to the railway line. Correcting for a wide range of other determinants of house prices we find that dwellings very close to a station are on average about 25% more expensive than dwellings at a distance of 15 kilometres or more. A doubling of frequency leads to an increase of house values of about 2.5%, ranging from 3.5% for houses close to the station to 1.3% for houses far away. Finally we find a negative effect of distance to railways, probably due to noise effects. Two railway station references were used in the analysis: the nearest and most frequently chosen station in the post code area. This distinction indicates that railway station accessibility is a more complex concept than one might think. It involves competition between railway stations. |
| Keywords: | property value; railway station; accessibility; hedonic pricing method |
| JEL: | R3 R4 |
| Date: | 2006–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20060031&r=geo |
| By: | David Norman (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the determinants of national manufactured exports through the use of a panel of Australian states. The panel approach is taken to assess whether the coefficient instability present in direct estimates of export elasticities can be alleviated by utilising the cross-state variation present in both manufactured exports and their determinants. Estimates of the price elasticity using this approach are found to be relatively robust to the use of the mean-group or fixed-effects panel estimation, and to a range of different export demand specifications. Income elasticity estimates are found to be stable across models, but sensitive to the inclusion of other variables. However, the degree of coefficient instability is not found to be significantly less in panel models than when using direct estimates, suggesting that direct estimation remains appropriate. The analysis is then extended to consider the role that domestic factors play in determining manufactured exports. In line with theory, it is found that domestic final demand and capacity utilisation are inversely related to manufactured exports. |
| Keywords: | manufactured exports; real exchange rates; regional |
| JEL: | F17 R12 |
| Date: | 2006–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2006-01&r=geo |
| By: | Paul Makdissi (GREDI, Département d'économique, Université de Sherbrooke); Dorothée Boccanfuso (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke); Mathieu Audet (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke) |
| Abstract: | To better understand the geographic determinants of poverty in Albania, this article proposes a methodology similar to that developed by Ravallion and Wodon (1999). Our methodology’s main contribution resides within how we utilize the entirety of a household’s joint distribution of demographic characteristics as opposed to averages when simulating regional poverty levels. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, Albania |
| JEL: | I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:06-12&r=geo |
| By: | Ana María Iregui; Luis Fernando Melo; María Teresa Ramírez |
| Abstract: | En este documento se estimó la productividad total de los factores (PTF) y las elasticidades de los factores para la industria manufacturera colombiana, por área metropolitana y sector económico, durante el período 1975-2000, con el fin de incorporar las diferencias regionales en el análisis de la productividad. Para este fin, se utilizó la metodología de datos de panel y los desarrollos recientes de pruebas de raíz unitaria y cointegración para paneles. Para el total nacional, se obtuvo una elasticidad del trabajo de 0.85 y una del capital de 0.15. En cuanto a los parámetros de productividad, los sectores industriales más productivos son el de industria de bebidas, fabricación de sustancias químicas industriales y fabricación de papel y productos de papel. Al estimar las elasticidades factoriales tanto a nivel regional como sectorial, se encontró una gran heterogeneidad entre ellas. |
| Date: | 2006–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:001043:002447&r=geo |
| By: | Felix Weickmann |
| Date: | 2006–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwneu:neurusp93&r=geo |