nep-for New Economics Papers
on Forecasting
Issue of 2023‒09‒25
four papers chosen by
Rob J Hyndman, Monash University

  1. Forecasting inflation using disaggregates and machine learning By Gilberto Boaretto; Marcelo C. Medeiros
  2. A Structural Approach to Combining External and DSGE Model Forecasts By Thorsten Drautzburg
  3. PM-Gati Shakti: Advancing India's Energy Future through Demand Forecasting -- A Case Study By SujayKumar Reddy M; Gopakumar G
  4. High Dimensional Time Series Regression Models: Applications to Statistical Learning Methods By Christis Katsouris

  1. By: Gilberto Boaretto; Marcelo C. Medeiros
    Abstract: This paper examines the effectiveness of several forecasting methods for predicting inflation, focusing on aggregating disaggregated forecasts - also known in the literature as the bottom-up approach. Taking the Brazilian case as an application, we consider different disaggregation levels for inflation and employ a range of traditional time series techniques as well as linear and nonlinear machine learning (ML) models to deal with a larger number of predictors. For many forecast horizons, the aggregation of disaggregated forecasts performs just as well survey-based expectations and models that generate forecasts using the aggregate directly. Overall, ML methods outperform traditional time series models in predictive accuracy, with outstanding performance in forecasting disaggregates. Our results reinforce the benefits of using models in a data-rich environment for inflation forecasting, including aggregating disaggregated forecasts from ML techniques, mainly during volatile periods. Starting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the random forest model based on both aggregate and disaggregated inflation achieves remarkable predictive performance at intermediate and longer horizons.
    Date: 2023–08
  2. By: Thorsten Drautzburg
    Abstract: This note shows that combining external forecasts such as the Survey of Professional Fore casters can significantly increase DSGE forecast accuracy while preserving the interpretability in terms of structural shocks. Applied to pseudo real-time from 1997q2 onward, the canonical Smets and Wouters (2007) model has significantly smaller forecast errors when giving a high weight to the SPF forecasts. Incorporating the SPF forecast gives a larger role to risk premium shocks during the global financial crisis. A model with financial frictions favors a larger weight on the DSGE model forecast.
    Keywords: Forecasting; model averaging; DSGE model; judgmental forecasts
    JEL: C32 C53
    Date: 2023–06–01
  3. By: SujayKumar Reddy M; Gopakumar G
    Abstract: PM-Gati-Shakti Initiative, integration of ministries, including railways, ports, waterways, logistic infrastructure, mass transport, airports, and roads. Aimed at enhancing connectivity and bolstering the competitiveness of Indian businesses, the initiative focuses on six pivotal pillars known as "Connectivity for Productivity": comprehensiveness, prioritization, optimization, synchronization, analytical, and dynamic. In this study, we explore the application of these pillars to address the problem of "Maximum Demand Forecasting in Delhi." Electricity forecasting plays a very significant role in the power grid as it is required to maintain a balance between supply and load demand at all times, to provide a quality electricity supply, for Financial planning, generation reserve, and many more. Forecasting helps not only in Production Planning but also in Scheduling like Import / Export which is very often in India and mostly required by the rural areas and North Eastern Regions of India. As Electrical Forecasting includes many factors which cannot be detected by the models out there, We use Classical Forecasting Techniques to extract the seasonal patterns from the daily data of Maximum Demand for the Union Territory Delhi. This research contributes to the power supply industry by helping to reduce the occurrence of disasters such as blackouts, power cuts, and increased tariffs imposed by regulatory commissions. The forecasting techniques can also help in reducing OD and UD of Power for different regions. We use the Data provided by a department from the Ministry of Power and use different forecast models including Seasonal forecasts for daily data.
    Date: 2023–07
  4. By: Christis Katsouris
    Abstract: These lecture notes provide an overview of existing methodologies and recent developments for estimation and inference with high dimensional time series regression models. First, we present main limit theory results for high dimensional dependent data which is relevant to covariance matrix structures as well as to dependent time series sequences. Second, we present main aspects of the asymptotic theory related to time series regression models with many covariates. Third, we discuss various applications of statistical learning methodologies for time series analysis purposes.
    Date: 2023–08

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