nep-for New Economics Papers
on Forecasting
Issue of 2022‒05‒30
three papers chosen by
Rob J Hyndman
Monash University

  1. Addressing COVID-19 outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility By Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Mertens, Elmar
  2. Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates With Parameter-Free Regression Networks Tuned By Bayesian Optimization By Linwei Li; Paul-Amaury Matt; Christian Heumann
  3. Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Forecasting Framework for Currency in Circulation By International Monetary Fund

  1. By: Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Mertens, Elmar
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to enormous data movements that strongly affect parameters and forecasts from standard VARs. To address these issues, we propose VAR models with outlier-augmented stochastic volatility (SV) that combine transitory and persistent changes in volatility. The resulting density forecasts are much less sensitive to outliers in the data than standard VARs. Predictive Bayes factors indicate that our outlier-augmented SV model provides the best data fit for the pandemic period, as well as for earlier subsamples of relatively high volatility. In historical forecasting, outlier-augmented SV schemes fare at least as well as a conventional SV model.
    Keywords: Bayesian VARs,stochastic volatility,outliers,pandemics,forecasts
    JEL: C53 E17 E37 F47
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Linwei Li; Paul-Amaury Matt; Christian Heumann
    Abstract: The article is concerned with the problem of multi-step financial time series forecasting of Foreign Exchange (FX) rates. To address this problem, we introduce a parameter-free regression network termed RegPred Net. The exchange rate to forecast is treated as a stochastic process. It is assumed to follow a generalization of Brownian motion and the mean-reverting process referred to as the generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, with time-dependent coefficients. Using past observed values of the input time series, these coefficients can be regressed online by the cells of the first half of the network (Reg). The regressed coefficients depend only on - but are very sensitive to - a small number of hyperparameters required to be set by a global optimization procedure for which, Bayesian optimization is an adequate heuristic. Thanks to its multi-layered architecture, the second half of the regression network (Pred) can project time-dependent values for the OU process coefficients and generate realistic trajectories of the time series. Predictions can be easily derived in the form of expected values estimated by averaging values obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. The forecasting accuracy on a 100 days horizon is evaluated for several of the most important FX rates such as EUR/USD, EUR/CNY, and EUR/GBP. Our experimental results show that the RegPred Net significantly outperforms ARMA, ARIMA, LSTMs, and Autoencoder-LSTM models in this task.
    Date: 2022–04
  3. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The currency in circulation forecasting model presently used by the Central Bank of Jordan is aligned with international practices and provides a solid basis for liquidity management. The central bank uses an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with many indicator variables to model binary seasonality and to capture special events. The ARIMA model is fitted on daily currency in circulation data using a standard maximum likelihood estimator. This ARIMA approach is aligned with the models traditionally used by central banks in emerging and middle-income countries.
    Keywords: moving average; staff level agreement; IMF team; hierarchy forecasting; ARIMA model; Monetary base; Currency issuance; Open market operations; Global
    Date: 2022–04–07

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