nep-for New Economics Papers
on Forecasting
Issue of 2022‒05‒02
nine papers chosen by
Rob J Hyndman
Monash University

  1. A Comparative Study on Forecasting of Retail Sales By Md Rashidul Hasan; Muntasir A Kabir; Rezoan A Shuvro; Pankaz Das
  2. Reducing overestimating and underestimating volatility via the augmented blending-ARCH model By Jun Lu; Shao Yi
  3. Measurability of functionals and of ideal point forecasts By Tobias Fissler; Hajo Holzmann
  4. Improving Macroeconomic Model Validity and Forecasting Performance with Pooled Country Data using Structural, Reduced Form, and Neural Network Model By Cameron Fen; Samir Undavia
  5. The information content of sentiment indices for forecasting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall in equity markets By Naimoli, Antonio
  6. A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football By Wheatcroft, Edward
  7. HiSA-SMFM: Historical and Sentiment Analysis based Stock Market Forecasting Model By Ishu Gupta; Tarun Kumar Madan; Sukhman Singh; Ashutosh Kumar Singh
  8. Amending the Heston Stochastic Volatility Model to Forecast Local Motor Vehicle Crash Rates: A Case Study of Washington, D.C By Darren Shannon; Grigorios Fountas
  9. Machine learning model to project the impact of Ukraine crisis By Javad T. Firouzjaee; Pouriya Khaliliyan

  1. By: Md Rashidul Hasan; Muntasir A Kabir; Rezoan A Shuvro; Pankaz Das
    Abstract: Predicting product sales of large retail companies is a challenging task considering volatile nature of trends, seasonalities, events as well as unknown factors such as market competitions, change in customer's preferences, or unforeseen events, e.g., COVID-19 outbreak. In this paper, we benchmark forecasting models on historical sales data from Walmart to predict their future sales. We provide a comprehensive theoretical overview and analysis of the state-of-the-art timeseries forecasting models. Then, we apply these models on the forecasting challenge dataset (M5 forecasting by Kaggle). Specifically, we use a traditional model, namely, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), and recently developed advanced models e.g., Prophet model developed by Facebook, light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) model developed by Microsoft and benchmark their performances. Results suggest that ARIMA model outperforms the Facebook Prophet and LightGBM model while the LightGBM model achieves huge computational gain for the large dataset with negligible compromise in the prediction accuracy.
    Date: 2022–03
  2. By: Jun Lu; Shao Yi
    Abstract: SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good performance in terms of various performance measurements, trading opportunities, peak or trough behaviors in the time series are all hampered by underestimating or overestimating the volatility. We propose a blending ARCH (BARCH) and an augmented BARCH (aBARCH) model to overcome this kind of problem and make the prediction towards better peak or trough behaviors. The method is illustrated using real data sets including SH300 and S&P500. The empirical results obtained suggest that the augmented and blending models improve the volatility forecasting ability.
    Date: 2022–03
  3. By: Tobias Fissler; Hajo Holzmann
    Abstract: The ideal probabilistic forecast for a random variable $Y$ based on an information set $\mathcal{F}$ is the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $\mathcal{F}$. In the context of point forecasts aiming to specify a functional $T$ such as the mean, a quantile or a risk measure, the ideal point forecast is the respective functional applied to the conditional distribution. This paper provides a theoretical justification why this ideal forecast is actually a forecast, that is, an $\mathcal{F}$-measurable random variable. To that end, the appropriate notion of measurability of $T$ is clarified and this measurability is established for a large class of practically relevant functionals, including elicitable ones. More generally, the measurability of $T$ implies the measurability of any point forecast which arises by applying $T$ to a probabilistic forecast. Similar measurability results are established for proper scoring rules, the main tool to evaluate the predictive accuracy of probabilistic forecasts.
    Date: 2022–03
  4. By: Cameron Fen; Samir Undavia
    Abstract: We show that pooling countries across a panel dimension to macroeconomic data can improve by a statistically significant margin the generalization ability of structural, reduced form, and machine learning (ML) methods to produce state-of-the-art results. Using GDP forecasts evaluated on an out-of-sample test set, this procedure reduces root mean squared error by 12\% across horizons and models for certain reduced-form models and by 24\% across horizons for dynamic structural general equilibrium models. Removing US data from the training set and forecasting out-of-sample country-wise, we show that reduced-form and structural models are more policy-invariant when trained on pooled data, and outperform a baseline that uses US data only. Given the comparative advantage of ML models in a data-rich regime, we demonstrate that our recurrent neural network model and automated ML approach outperform all tested baseline economic models. Robustness checks indicate that our outperformance is reproducible, numerically stable, and generalizable across models.
    Date: 2022–03
  5. By: Naimoli, Antonio
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of public sentiment on tail risk forecasting. In this framework, we extend the Realized Exponential GARCH model to directly incorporate information from realized volatility measures and exogenous variables. Several indices related to social media and journal articles regarding the economy and stock market volatility are considered as potential drivers of volatility dynamics. An application to the prediction of daily Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall for the Standard & Poor's 500 index provides evidence that combining the information content of realized volatility and sentiment measures can lead to significant accuracy gains in forecasting tail risk.
    Keywords: Realized Exponential GARCH; sentiment indices; economic policy uncertainty; tail risk forecasting; risk management.
    JEL: C22 C53 C58 D80 E66 G32
    Date: 2022–03
  6. By: Wheatcroft, Edward
    Abstract: The over/under 2.5 goals betting market allows gamblers to bet on whether the total number of goals in a football match will exceed 2.5. In this paper, a set of ratings, named ‘Generalised Attacking Performance’ (GAP) ratings, are defined which measure the attacking and defensive performance of each team in a league. GAP ratings are used to forecast matches in ten European football leagues and their profitability is tested in the over/under market using two value betting strategies. GAP ratings with match statistics such as shots and shots on target as inputs are shown to yield better predictive value than the number of goals. An average profit of around 0.8 percent per bet taken is demonstrated over twelve years when using only shots and corners (and not goals) as inputs. The betting strategy is shown to be robust by comparing it to a random betting strategy.
    Keywords: probability forecasting; sports forecasting; football forecasting; football predictions; soccer predictions; value betting
    JEL: C1
    Date: 2020–07–01
  7. By: Ishu Gupta; Tarun Kumar Madan; Sukhman Singh; Ashutosh Kumar Singh
    Abstract: One of the pillars to build a country's economy is the stock market. Over the years, people are investing in stock markets to earn as much profit as possible from the amount of money that they possess. Hence, it is vital to have a prediction model which can accurately predict future stock prices. With the help of machine learning, it is not an impossible task as the various machine learning techniques if modeled properly may be able to provide the best prediction values. This would enable the investors to decide whether to buy, sell or hold the share. The aim of this paper is to predict the future of the financial stocks of a company with improved accuracy. In this paper, we have proposed the use of historical as well as sentiment data to efficiently predict stock prices by applying LSTM. It has been found by analyzing the existing research in the area of sentiment analysis that there is a strong correlation between the movement of stock prices and the publication of news articles. Therefore, in this paper, we have integrated these factors to predict the stock prices more accurately.
    Date: 2022–03
  8. By: Darren Shannon; Grigorios Fountas
    Abstract: Modelling crash rates in an urban area requires a swathe of data regarding historical and prevailing traffic volumes and crash events and characteristics. Provided that the traffic volume of urban networks is largely defined by typical work and school commute patterns, crash rates can be determined with a reasonable degree of accuracy. However, this process becomes more complicated for an area that is frequently subject to peaks and troughs in traffic volume and crash events owing to exogenous events (for example, extreme weather) rather than typical commute patterns. One such area that is particularly exposed to exogenous events is Washington, DC, which has seen a large rise in crash events between 2009 and 2020. In this study, we adopt a forecasting model that embeds heterogeneity and temporal instability in its estimates in order to improve upon forecasting models currently used in transportation and road safety research. Specifically, we introduce a stochastic volatility model that aims to capture the nuances associated with crash rates in Washington, DC. We determine that this model can outperform conventional forecasting models, but it does not perform well in light of the unique travel patterns exhibited throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, its adaptability to the idiosyncrasies of Washington, DC crash rates demonstrates its ability to accurately simulate localised crash rates processes, which can be further adapted in public policy contexts to form road safety targets.
    Date: 2022–03
  9. By: Javad T. Firouzjaee; Pouriya Khaliliyan
    Abstract: Russia's attack on Ukraine on Thursday 24 February 2022 hitched financial markets and the increased geopolitical crisis. In this paper, we select some main economic indexes, such as Gold, Oil (WTI), NDAQ, and known currency which are involved in this crisis and try to find the quantitative effect of this war on them. To quantify the war effect, we use the correlation feature and the relationships between these economic indices, create datasets, and compare the results of forecasts with real data. To study war effects, we use Machine Learning Linear Regression. We carry on empirical experiments and perform on these economic indices datasets to evaluate and predict this war tolls and its effects on main economics indexes.
    Date: 2022–03

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