nep-for New Economics Papers
on Forecasting
Issue of 2022‒01‒24
three papers chosen by
Rob J Hyndman
Monash University

  1. Real-Time Forecast of DSGE Models with Time-Varying Volatility in GARCH Form By Sergey Ivashchenko; Semih Emre Cekin; Rangan Gupta
  2. “An application of deep learning for exchange rate forecasting” By Oscar Claveria; Enric Monte; Petar Soric; Salvador Torra
  3. COVID-19 Forecasts via Stock Market Indicators By Yi Liang; James Unwin

  1. By: Sergey Ivashchenko (The North-Western Main Branch of the Bank of Russia; The Institute of Regional Economy Studies (Russian Academy of Sciences); The Financial Research Institute); Semih Emre Cekin (Department of Economics, Turkish-German University, Istanbul, Turkey); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)
    Abstract: Recent research shows that time-varying volatility plays a crucial role in nonlinear modeling. Contributing to this literature, we suggest a DSGE-GARCH approach that allows for straight-forward computation of DSGE models with time-varying volatility. As an application of our approach, we examine the forecasting performance of the DSGE-GARCH model using Eurozone real-time data. Our findings suggest that the DSGE-GARCH approach is superior in out-of-sample forecasting performance in comparison to various other benchmarks for the forecast of inflation rates, output growth and interest rates, especially in the short term. Comparing our approach to the widely used stochastic volatility specification using in-sample forecasts, we also show that the DSGE-GARCH is superior in in-sample forecast quality and computational effciency. In addition to these results, our approach reveals interesting properties and dynamics of time-varying correlations (conditional correlations).
    Keywords: DSGE, forecasting, GARCH, stochastic volatility, conditional correlations
    JEL: C32 E30 E37
    Date: 2022–01
  2. By: Oscar Claveria (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Enric Monte (Polytechnic University of Catalunya); Petar Soric (University of Zagreb); Salvador Torra (Riskcenter-IREA, University of Barcelona)
    Abstract: This paper examines the performance of several state-of-the-art deep learning techniques for exchange rate forecasting (deep feedforward network, convolutional network and a long short-term memory). On the one hand, the configuration of the different architectures is clearly detailed, as well as the tuning of the parameters and the regularisation techniques used to avoid overfitting. On the other hand, we design an out-of-sample forecasting experiment and evaluate the accuracy of three different deep neural networks to predict the US/UK foreign exchange rate in the days after the Brexit took effect. Of the three configurations, we obtain the best results with the deep feedforward architecture. When comparing the deep learning networks to time-series models used as a benchmark, the obtained results are highly dependent on the specific topology used in each case. Thus, although the three architectures generate more accurate predictions than the time-series models, the results vary considerably depending on the specific topology. These results hint at the potential of deep learning techniques, but they also highlight the importance of properly configuring, implementing and selecting the different topologies.
    Keywords: Forecasting, Exchange rates, Deep learning, Deep neural networks, Convolutional networks, Long short-term memory JEL classification: C45, C58, E47, F31, G17
    Date: 2022–01
  3. By: Yi Liang; James Unwin
    Abstract: Reliable short term forecasting can provide potentially lifesaving insights into logistical planning, and in particular, into the optimal allocation of resources such as hospital staff and equipment. By reinterpreting COVID-19 daily cases in terms of candlesticks, we are able to apply some of the most popular stock market technical indicators to obtain predictive power over the course of the pandemics. By providing a quantitative assessment of MACD, RSI, and candlestick analyses, we show their statistical significance in making predictions for both stock market data and WHO COVID-19 data. In particular, we show the utility of this novel approach by considering the identification of the beginnings of subsequent waves of the pandemic. Finally, our new methods are used to assess whether current health policies are impacting the growth in new COVID-19 cases.
    Date: 2021–12

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