nep-for New Economics Papers
on Forecasting
Issue of 2021‒11‒15
three papers chosen by
Rob J Hyndman
Monash University

  1. What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts? By Thi Ngoc Nguyen; Felix M\"usgens
  2. Forecasting Inflation and Output Growth with Credit-Card-Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates By Barnett, William; Park, Sohee
  3. Boosting Tax Revenues with Mixed-Frequency Data in the Aftermath of Covid-19: The Case of New York By Kajal Lahiri; Cheng Yang

  1. By: Thi Ngoc Nguyen; Felix M\"usgens
    Abstract: Due to the stochastic nature of photovoltaic (PV) power generation, there is high demand for forecasting PV output to better integrate PV generation into power grids. Systematic knowledge regarding the factors influencing forecast accuracy is crucially important, but still mostly unknown. In this paper, we review 180 papers on PV forecasts and extract a database of forecast errors for statistical analysis. We show that among the forecast models, hybrid models consistently outperform the others and will most likely be the future of PV output forecasting. The use of data processing techniques is positively correlated with the forecast quality, while the lengths of the forecast horizon and out-of-sample test set have negative effects on the forecast accuracy. We also found that the inclusion of numerical weather prediction variables, data normalization, and data resampling are the most effective data processing techniques. Furthermore, we found some evidence for cherry picking in reporting errors and recommend that the test sets be at least one year to better assess model performance. The paper also takes the first step towards establishing a benchmark for assessing PV output forecasts.
    Date: 2021–11
  2. By: Barnett, William; Park, Sohee
    Abstract: This paper investigates the performance of the Credit-Card-Augmented Divisia monetary aggregates in forecasting U.S. inflation and output growth at the 12-month horizon. We compute recursive and rolling out-of-sample forecasts using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model based on Divisia monetary aggregates. We use the three available versions of those monetary aggregate indices, including the original Divisia aggregates, the credit card-augmented Divisia, and the credit-card-augmented Divisia inside money aggregates. The source of each is the Center for Financial Stability (CFS). We find that the smallest Root Mean Square Forecast Errors (RMSFE) are attained with the credit-card-augmented Divisia indices used as the forecast indicators. We also consider Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) for forecasting annual inflation and output growth.
    Keywords: Divisia, credit-card-augmented Divisia, monetary aggregates, forecasting, Bayesian vector autoregression, inflation, output growth.
    JEL: C32 C53 E31 E47 E51
    Date: 2021–10–19
  3. By: Kajal Lahiri; Cheng Yang
    Abstract: We forecast New York state tax revenues with a mixed-frequency model using a number of machine learning techniques. We found boosting with two dynamic factors extracted from a select list of New York and U.S. leading indicators did best in terms of correctly updating revenues for the fiscal year in direct multi-step out-of-sample forecasts. These forecasts were found to be informationally efficient over 18 monthly horizons. In addition to boosting with factors, we also studied the advisability of restricting boosting to select the most recent macro variables to capture abrupt structural changes. Since the COVID-19 pandemic upended all government budgets, our boosted forecasts were used to monitor revenues in real time for the fiscal year 2021. Our estimates showed a drastic year-over-year decline in real revenues by over 16% in May 2020, followed by several upward nowcast revisions that led to a recovery to -1% in March 2021, which was close to the actual annual value of -1.6%.
    Keywords: revenue forecasting, machine learning, real time forecasting, mixed frequency, fiscal policy
    JEL: C22 C32 C50 C53 E62
    Date: 2021

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