nep-for 2008-01-12 papers

on Forecasting

Issue of 2008‒01‒12
two papers chosen by
Rob J Hyndman
Monash University

Forecasting water consumption in Spain using univariate time series models By Caiado, Jorge
Fiscal forecasting - lessons from the literature and challenges By Teresa Leal; Javier J. Pérez; Mika Tujula; Jean-Pierre Vidal

Forecasting water consumption in Spain using univariate time series models

By:	Caiado, Jorge
Abstract:	In this paper, we examine the daily water demand forecasting performance of double seasonal univariate time series models (Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA and GARCH) based on multi-step ahead forecast mean squared errors. We investigate whether combining forecasts from different methods and from different origins and horizons could improve forecast accuracy. We use daily data for water consumption in Spain from 1 January 2001 to 30 June 2006.
Keywords:	ARIMA; Combined forecasts; Double seasonality; Exponential Smoothing; Forecasting; GARCH; Water demand.
JEL:	C32 C22
Date:	2007–09
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:6610&r=for

Fiscal forecasting - lessons from the literature and challenges

By:	Teresa Leal (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Huelva, Dr. Cantero Cuadrado 6, 21071 Huelva, Spain.); Javier J. Pérez (Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Mika Tujula (Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Jean-Pierre Vidal (Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Abstract:	While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly increased interest in budgetary forecasts in Europe, where they play a key role in the EU multilateral budgetary surveillance. In view of the increased prominence and sensitivity of budgetary forecasts, which may lead to them being influenced by strategic and political factors, this paper discusses the main issues and challenges in the field of fiscal forecasting from a practitioner’s perspective and places them in the context of the related literature. JEL Classification: H6, E62, C53.
Keywords:	Fiscal policies, government budget, forecasting, monitoring.
Date:	2007–12
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070843&r=for

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