|
on Forecasting |
| By: | Robert W. Fogel |
| Abstract: | While the economies of the fifteen countries that were in the European Union (EU15) in 2000 will continue to grow from now until 2040, they will not be able to match the surges in growth that will occur in South and East Asia. In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the output of the entire globe in the year 2000, despite the influence of several potential political and economic constraints. India's economy will also continue to grow, although significant constraints (both political and economic) will keep it from reaching China's levels. The projected decline of the EU15's global share of GDP means that Asia will be poised to take up the role of promoting liberal democracy across the globe. |
| JEL: | F47 |
| Date: | 2007–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13184&r=for |
| By: | Christopher J. Ruhm |
| Abstract: | The prevalence of obesity has increased rapidly since the mid-1970s, following a period of relative stability. This study examines past patterns and projects future prevalence rates of obesity and severe obesity among US adults through 2020. Trends in body mass index (BMI), overweight (BMI 25), obesity (BMI 30), class 2 obesity (BMI 35), class 3 obesity (BMI 40) and class 4 obesity (BMI 45) of 20-74 year olds are obtained using data from the first National Health Examination Survey and the Nutrition Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Quantile regression methods are then used to forecast future prevalence rates through 2020. By that year, 77.6% of men are predicted to be overweight and 40.2% obese, with class 2, 3 and 4 obesity prevalence rates projected at 16.4%, 6.3% and 3.1%. The corresponding forecasts for women are 71.1%, 43.3%, 25.3%, 12.8% and 5.8%. The large growth predicted for severe obesity represents a major public health challenge, given the accompanying high medical expenditures and elevated risk of mortality and morbidity. Combating severe obesity is likely to require strategies targeting the particularly large weight gains of the heaviest individuals. |
| JEL: | I1 I12 |
| Date: | 2007–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13181&r=for |
| By: | MEYER, Laurence |
| Abstract: | By offering three visions of the future of television through 2015, this article aims to highlight some of the socio-economic changes that the television sector may experience in the long term. It highlights the structuring impact that PVR could have on the sector, as well as the upheavals that may arise from a new paradigm of internet TV. It also highlights the options now open to TV channel operators wishing to set up a mobile TV service and the threats facing mobile telecommunications operators in the development of this market as a result. |
| Keywords: | television; forecast; media usages |
| JEL: | L82 L96 |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:3519&r=for |