nep-for New Economics Papers
on Forecasting
Issue of 2007‒04‒09
23 papers chosen by
Rob J Hyndman
Monash University

  1. Improving Business Cycle Forecasts’ Accuracy - What Can We Learn from Past Errors? By Roland Döhrn
  2. Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks By John M Maheu; Stephen Gordon
  3. Predicting the term structure of interest rates incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information By De Pooter, Michiel; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Dick
  4. The predictive content of the real interest rate gap for macroeconomic variables in the euro area By Jean-Stéphane MESONNIER
  5. Is a word to the wise indeed enough? ECB statements and the predictability of interest rate decisions By David-Jan Jansen; Jakob de Haan
  6. Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility with High Frequency Data: Is the Euro Different? By Georgios Chortareas; John Nankervis; Ying Jiang
  7. Application of machine learning to short-term equity return prediction By Yan, Robert; Nuttall, John; Ling, Charles
  8. Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach By Neil Kellard; John Nankervis; Fotis Papadimitriou
  9. The Predictive Performance of Asymmetric Normal Mixture GARCH in Risk Management: Evidence from Turkey By Cifter, Atilla; Ozun, Alper
  10. Using the Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching to Predict the Cyclical Turns in the Large European Economies By Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  11. An Early Warning Model for EU banks with Detection of the Adverse Selection Effect By Olivier BROSSARD (LEREPS-GRES ); Frédéric DUCROZET (PSE - Crédit Agricole); Adrian ROCHE (EconomiX - Crédit Agricole)
  12. Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads By Nektarios Aslanidis; Andrea Cipollini
  13. Recession Looms for the U.S. Economy in 2007 By Dean Baker
  14. Nonlinear Combination of Financial Forecast with Genetic Algorithm By Ozun, Alper; Cifter, Atilla
  15. Singapore’s Recurrent Budget Surplus The Role of Conservative Growth Forecasts By Tilak Abeysinghe; Ananda Jayawickrama
  16. Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases By Domenico Giannone; Lucrezia Reichlin; David H Small
  17. Use, misuse and proper use of national accounts statistics By Bos, Frits
  18. Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return By Börsch-Supan, Axel; Heiss, Florian; Winter, Joachim
  19. Population ageing and consumption demand in Belgium By Mathieu Lefebvre
  20. Global Demography: Fact, Force and Future By Bloom, David; Canning, David
  21. The Future of Social Security By Martin Gonzalez-Eiras; Dirk Niepelt
  22. Trends in Severe Disability Among Elderly People: Assessing the Evidence in 12 OECD Countries and the Future Implications By Gaetan Lafortune; Gaëlle Balestat
  23. Is Entrepreneurial Success Predictable? : An Ex-Ante Analysis of the Character-Based Approach By Marco Caliendo; Alexander S. Kritikos

  1. By: Roland Döhrn
    Abstract: This paper addresses the question whether forecasters could have been able to produce better forecasts by using the available information more efficiently (informational efficiency of forecast). It is tested whether forecast errors covariate with indicators such as survey results, monetary data, business cycle indicators, or financial data. Because of the short sampling period and data problems, a non parametric ranked sign test is applied. The analysis is carried out for GDP and its main components. The study differentiates between two types of errors: Type I error occurs when forecasters neglect the information provided by an indicator.As type II error a situation is labelled in which forecasters have given too much weight to an indicator. In a number of cases forecast errors and the indicators are correlated, though mostly at a rather low level of significance. In most cases type I errors have been found. Additional tests reveal that there is little evidence of institution specific as well as forecast horizon specific effects. In many cases, co-variations found for GDP are not refected in one of the expenditure side components et vice versa.
    Keywords: Short term forecast, Forecast evaluation, informational efficiency
    JEL: E37 C53 C42
    Date: 2006–10
  2. By: John M Maheu; Stephen Gordon
    Abstract: We provide a general methodology for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks induced by unpredictable changes to model parameters. Bayesian methods of learning and model comparison are used to derive a predictive density that takes into account the possibility that a break will occur before the next observation. Estimates for the posterior distribution of the most recent break are generated as a by-product of our procedure. We discuss the importance of using priors that accurately reflect the econometrician's opinions as to what constitutes a plausible forecast. Several applications to macroeconomic time-series data demonstrate the usefulness of our procedure.
    Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Real GDP Growth, Phillip's Curve
    JEL: C53 C22 C11
    Date: 2007–03–30
  3. By: De Pooter, Michiel; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Dick
    Abstract: We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been used in the literature. We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty by examining the added value of using Bayesian inference compared to frequentist estimation techniques, and model uncertainty by combining forecasts from individual models. Following current literature we also investigate the benefits of incorporating macroeconomic information in yield curve models. Our results show that adding macroeconomic factors is very beneficial for improving the out-of-sample forecasting performance of individual models. Despite this, the predictive accuracy of models varies over time considerably, irrespective of using the Bayesian or frequentist approach. We show that mitigating model uncertainty by combining forecasts leads to substantial gains in forecasting performance, especially when applying Bayesian model averaging.
    Keywords: Term structure of interest rates; Nelson-Siegel model; Affine term structure model; forecast combination; Bayesian analysis
    JEL: C53 E47
    Date: 2006–11–06
  4. By: Jean-Stéphane MESONNIER (Banque de France)
    Abstract: The real interest rate gap -IRG-, i.e. the gap between the short term real interest rate and its “natural†level, is a theoretical concept of potential policy relevance for central banks, at least to evaluate the monetary policy stance, at best as a guideline for policy moves. This paper aims at clarifying the practical relevance of IRG indicators for monetary policy. To this end, it provides an empirical assessment of the usefulness of various univariate and multivariate estimates of the real IRG for predicting inflation, real activity and real credit growth in the euro area. On the basis of out-of-sample evidence using real-time data, I find that IRG measures are globally of little help to improve our knowledge of future inflation in the euro area. By contrast, some of the estimated IRG measures exhibit a significant predictive power for future real activity, in line with the intuition from a traditional IS curve, as well as for credit growth. Nevertheless, in most cases, the forecasting models that include estimated IRG do not outperform a simpler AR model augmented with the first difference of the nominal interest rate
    Keywords: natural rate of interest, monetary policy, forecasting
    JEL: C53 E37 E52
    Date: 2007–02–02
  5. By: David-Jan Jansen (De Nederlandsche Bank); Jakob de Haan (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen)
    Abstract: We show that comments by euro area central bankers contain information on future ECB interest rate decisions, but that the comments mainly reflect recent developments in macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, models using only communication variables are outperformed by straightforward Taylor rule models. During the first years of the European Economic and Monetary Union, comments by ECB Executive Board members and high-level Bundesbank policy-makers were more informative than comments by national central bank presidents. We also find that differences of opinion were informative when they concerned the outlook for economic growth. Finally, our results suggest that the ECB used communication especially to signal interest rate increases
    Keywords: central bank communication, ECB, interest rate decisions
    JEL: E43 E52 E58
    Date: 2007–02–02
  6. By: Georgios Chortareas (University of Essex); John Nankervis (University of Essex); Ying Jiang (University of Essex)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on forecasting volatility of high frequency Euro exchange rates. Four 15 minute frequency Euro exchange rate series, including Euro/CHF, Euro/GBP, Euro/JPY and Euro/USD, are used to test the forecast performance of six models, including both traditional time series volatility models and the realized volatility model. Besides the normally used regression test and accuracy test, an equal accuracy test, the HLN-DM test, and a superior predictive ability test are also employed in the out-of-sample forecast evaluation. The FIGARCH model is found to be superior in almost all exchange rate series. Although the widely preferred ARFIMA model shows better performance than the traditional daily volatility models, generally speaking, it cannot surpass the FIGARCH model and the intraday GARCH model. Furthermore, the SVX model does not significantly outperform the SV model in the accuracy test, which contradicts the results of some earlier research. The paper confirms the advantage of using high frequency data and modelling the long memory factor. It also analyses the characteristics of Euro exchange rates and compares the test results with the conclusions drawn by previous studies
    Keywords: exchange rates, volatility, euro, high frequency
    JEL: F31 C22
    Date: 2007–02–02
  7. By: Yan, Robert; Nuttall, John; Ling, Charles
    Abstract: Cooper showed how a filter method could be used to predict equity returns for the next week by using information about returns and volume for the two previous weeks. Cooper's method may be regarded as a crude method of Machine Learning. Over the last 20 years Machine Learning has been successfully applied to the modeling of large data sets, often containing a lot of noise, in many different fields. When applying the technique it is important to fit it to the specific problem under consideration. We have designed and applied to Cooper's problem a practical new method of Machine Learning, appropriate to the problem, that is based on a modification of the well-known kernel regression method. We call it the Prototype Kernel Regression method (PKR). In both the period 1978-1993 studied by Cooper, and the period 1994-2004, the PKR method leads to a clear profit improvement compared to Cooper's approach. In all of 48 different cases studied, the period pre-cost average return is larger for the PKR method than Cooper's method, on average 37% higher, and that margin would increase as costs were taken into account. Our method aims to minimize the danger of data snooping, and it could plausibly have been applied in 1994 or earlier. There may be a lesson here for proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in the form that states that profitable prediction of equity returns is impossible except by chance. It is not enough for them to show that the profits from an anomaly-based trading scheme disappear after costs. The proponents should also consider what would have been plausible applications of more sophisticated Machine Learning techniques before dismissing evidence against the EMH.
    JEL: C02
    Date: 2006–04–03
  8. By: Neil Kellard (Essex Finance Centre, Department of Accounting, Finance & Management, University of Essex); John Nankervis (Essex Finance Centre, Department of Accounting, Finance & Management, University of Essex); Fotis Papadimitriou (Essex Finance Centre, Department of Accounting, Finance & Management, University of Essex)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the ability of dividend ratios to predict the UK equity premium. Specifically, we apply the Goyal and Welch (2003) methodology to equity premia derived from the UK FTSE All-Share index. This approach provides a powerful graphical diagnostic for predictive ability. Preliminary in-sample univariate regressions reveal that the UK equity premium contains an element of predictability. Moreover, out-of-sample the considered models outperform the historical moving average. In contrast to similar work on the US, the graphical diagnostic then indicates that dividend ratios are useful predictors of excess returns. Finally, Campbell and Shiller (1988) identities are employed to account for the time-varying properties of the dividend yield and dividend growth processes. It is shown that by instrumenting the models with the identities, forecasting ability can be improved.
    Date: 2007–02–02
  9. By: Cifter, Atilla; Ozun, Alper
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to test predictive performance of Asymmetric Normal Mixture Garch (NMAGARCH) and other Garch models based on Kupiec and Christoffersen tests for Turkish equity market. The empirical results show that the NMAGARCH perform better based on %99 CI out-of-sample forecasting Christoffersen test where Garch with normal and student-t distribution perform better based on %95 Cl out-of-sample forecasting Christoffersen test and Kupiec test. These results show that none of the model including NMAGARCH outperforms other models in all cases as trading position or confidence intervals and these results shows that volatility model should be chosen according to confidence interval and trading positions. Besides, NMAGARCH increases predictive performance for higher confidence internal as Basel requires.
    Keywords: Garch; Asymmetric Normal Mixture Garch; Kupiec Test; Christoffersen Test; Emerging markets
    JEL: G00 C52 C32
    Date: 2007–01–01
  10. By: Konstantin A. Kholodilin (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: The appropriately selected leading indicators can substantially improve the forecasting of the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. Using the novel methodology of the dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching and the data for three largest European economies (France, Germany, and UK) we construct composite leading indicator (CLI) and composite coincident indicator (CCI) as well as corresponding recession probabilities. We estimate also a rival model of the Markov-switching VAR in order to see, which of the two models brings better outcomes. The recession dates derived from these models are compared to three reference chronologies: those of OECD and ECRI (growth cycles) and those obtained with quarterly Bry-Boschan procedure (classical cycles). Dynamic bi-factor model and MSVAR appear to predict the cyclical turning points equally well without systematic superiority of one model over another
    Keywords: Forecasting turning points, composite
    JEL: E32 C10
    Date: 2007–02–02
  11. By: Olivier BROSSARD (LEREPS-GRES ); Frédéric DUCROZET (PSE - Crédit Agricole); Adrian ROCHE (EconomiX - Crédit Agricole)
    Abstract: We estimate an early warning model of banks’ failure using a panel of 82 EU banks observed between 1991 and 2005. We make two contributions to the literature. Firstly, we construct a distance-to-default indicator and test its predictive power. The tests implemented here are very similar to those realized by Gropp, Vesala and Vulpes (2005), but our time dimension is four years longer and we use a more restrictive definition of banks’ “failure”. This first part of the paper establishes the accuracy of our data and confirms the robustness of distance-to-default as an early indicator of EU banks’ fragility. Our second advance consists in introducing a variable detecting the adverse selection problem that can be caused by rapid growth strategies. A measure of past average growth of assets is shown to be a very significant and powerful predictor of future banks’ difficulties. We discuss the origins and implications of such an effect.
    Keywords: failures; early warning systems; CAMEL ratings; distance to default
    JEL: G21 G33 G14 E58
    Date: 2007
  12. By: Nektarios Aslanidis (University of Monash); Andrea Cipollini (University of Essex)
    Abstract: The focus of this paper is on the leading indicator properties of high-yield corporate spreads regarding the level of real economic activity. This is motivated by both the financial accelerator mechanism underlying business cycle fluctuations as suggested by Bernanke and Gertler (1989). We examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of the high-yield spreads regarding employment and industrial production in the US, using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sub sectors high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that there is a substantial gain from using a Dynamic Factor fitted to credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR and ARDL models, where the exogenous regressor is either the term spread, or the aggregate high-yield spread.
    Keywords: credit spreads, dynamic factor, forecasting
    JEL: C53 E32 C22
    Date: 2007–02–02
  13. By: Dean Baker
    Abstract: This paper forecasts that weakness in the housing market is likely to push the economy into a recession in 2007. Economist Dean Baker provides predictions for GDP, job and wage growth; inflation (CPI); investment; exports and imports; and more.
    Date: 2006–11
  14. By: Ozun, Alper; Cifter, Atilla
    Abstract: Complexity in the financial markets requires intelligent forecasting models for return volatility. In this paper, historical simulation, GARCH, GARCH with skewed student-t distribution and asymmetric normal mixture GRJ-GARCH models are combined with Extreme Value Theory Hill by using artificial neural networks with genetic algorithm as the combination platform. By employing daily closing values of the Istanbul Stock Exchange from 01/10/1996 to 11/07/2006, Kupiec and Christoffersen tests as the back-testing mechanisms are performed for forecast comparison of the models. Empirical findings show that the fat-tails are more properly captured by the combination of GARCH with skewed student-t distribution and Extreme Value Theory Hill. Modeling return volatility in the emerging markets needs “intelligent” combinations of Value-at-Risk models to capture the extreme movements in the markets rather than individual model forecast.
    Keywords: Forecast combination; Artificial neural networks; GARCH models; Extreme value theory; Christoffersen test
    JEL: G0 C52 C32
    Date: 2007–02–01
  15. By: Tilak Abeysinghe (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); Ananda Jayawickrama (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: Aided by strong economic growth the Singapore government has been able to keep both the tax rate and the government expenditure rate low and yet generate healthy budget surpluses year after year. Although the gap between the tax rate and the government expenditure rate is the obvious source of the surplus, this paper shows the presence of another subtle source, a surplus generated by conservative growth forecasts that lay the base for revenue projections. An omitted variable bias in a model based on the tax smoothing hypothesis led us to consider the role played by the growth forecast error in predicting the budget surplus. Our computations show that on average the underprediction of the tax base (GDP) must have contributed about $376 million per year to the realized budget surplus over the period 1990-2005. This appears to be simply a byproduct of the Government’s philosophy of “fiscal prudence”.
    Keywords: Tax smoothing model, Reported and adjusted budget surplus, GDP forecast errors.
    JEL: H61 H62
  16. By: Domenico Giannone (ECARES Université Libre de Bruxelles); Lucrezia Reichlin (European Central Bank); David H Small (Federal Reserve Board)
    Abstract: This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing "news" on the basis of an evolving conditioning information set. The marginal contribution is then split into what is due to timeliness of information and what is due to economic content. We find that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables and interest rates
    JEL: E52 C33 C53
    Date: 2007–02–02
  17. By: Bos, Frits
    Abstract: In this paper, the relevance of national accounts statistics and their underlying conceptual framework is investigated for their four roles: description and object of analysis, tool for analysis and forecasting, tool for communication and decision-making and input for alternative accounts budgetary rules and estimates. For each role, the merits and limitations of national accounts statistics are described and discussed. Proper use should be stimulated by improving education and marketing and by supplementing national accounts with information about their meaning and reliability.
    Keywords: National accounts; relevance and reliability; forecasting; economic and fiscal policy
    JEL: H00 C0 E01
    Date: 2007
  18. By: Börsch-Supan, Axel; Heiss, Florian; Winter, Joachim (Institut für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik (IVS))
    Abstract: This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre-funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized overlapping generations model to predict rates of return over a long horizon taking demographic projections as given. Our simulations show that a transition to a partially funded system crowds out existing savings only partially. The capital stock increases initially, but decreases when the babyboom generations enter retirement. The corresponding decrease in the rate of return, which results from both population aging and pre-funded pensions, is only modest, less than one percentage point in the closed economy, fixed-technology case. The return on capital can be improved by international diversification, that is, by investing pension funds in countries with a more favorable demographic transition path. Feedback effects from strengthened capital markets and improved corporate governance, which are unlikely to be achieved with capital market reforms alone, will raise capital performance further.
    JEL: E27 G15 G34 H55 J11
  19. By: Mathieu Lefebvre
    Abstract: This paper analyses the effect of population ageing on consumptions aggregates in Belgium. Since consumption expenditures change markedly over the life-cycle, the structure of aggregate consumption is likely to change in the course of population ageing. First, we estimate the effect of age on expenditures for 10 composite goods coming from household’s surveys. This is done using a pseudo-panel method. Second, age-specific profiles are used to forecast composition of consumption until 2050. The results point to increases in health, housing and leisure expenditures and decreases in equipment, clothing and transport expenditures. These changes are relatively moderate but non negligible. They will translate in sectoral shifts and most probably in changes in sectoral employment.
    Keywords: Consumption, demographic ageing, projections.
    JEL: D12 E21 J21
    Date: 2006
  20. By: Bloom, David; Canning, David
    Abstract: In the past 50 years, the world accelerated its transition out of long-term demographic stability. As infant and child mortality rates fell, populations began to soar. In most countries, this growth led to falling fertility rates. Although fertility has fallen, the population continues to increase because of population momentum; it will eventually level off. In the meantime, demographic change has created a ‘bulge’ generation, which today appears in many countries as a large working-age population. This cohort will eventually become a large elderly population, in both developed and developing countries. Population growth has been the subject of great debate among economists and demographers. Until recently, most have agreed on a middle ground, in which population growth per se has no effect on economic growth. New evidence suggests that changes in the age structure of populations – in particular, a rising ratio of working-age to non-working-age individuals – leads to the possibility of more rapid economic growth, via both accounting and behavioural effects. The experiences of east Asia, Ireland and sub-Saharan Africa all serve as evidence of the effect of demographic change on economic growth (or lack thereof). Both internal migration (from rural to urban areas) and international migration complicate this picture. The overall implications of population growth for policy lie in the imperative for investments in health and education, and for sound policies related to labour, trade and retirement. Understanding future trends is essential for the development of good policy. Demographic projections can be quite reliable, but huge uncertainties – in the realms of health, changes in human life span, scientific advances, migration, global warming and wars – make overall predictions extremely uncertain.
    Keywords: demography; population; aging
    JEL: J11
    Date: 2006–11
  21. By: Martin Gonzalez-Eiras (Universidad de San Andres); Dirk Niepelt (Study Center Gerzensee, IIES, Stockholm University and CEPR)
    Abstract: We analyze the effect of the projected demographic transition on the political support for social security, and equilibrium outcomes. Embedding a probabilistic-voting setup of electoral competition in the Diamond (1965) OLG model, we find that intergenerational transfers arise in the absence of altruism, commitment, or trigger strategies. Closed-form solutions predict population ageing to lead to higher social security tax rates, a rising share of pensions in GDP, but eventually lower social security benefits per retiree. The response of equilibrium tax rates to demographic shocks reduces old-age consumption risk. Calibrated to match features of the U.S. economy, the model suggests that, in response to the projected demographic transition, social security tax rates will gradually increase to 16 percent; other policies that distort labor supply will become less important; and in contrast with frequently voiced fears, labor supply therefore will rise.
    Date: 2007–02
  22. By: Gaetan Lafortune; Gaëlle Balestat
    Abstract: As the number and share of the population aged 65 and over will continue to grow steadily in OECD countries over the next decades, improvements in the functional status of elderly people could help mitigate the rise in the demand for, and hence expenditure on, long-term care. This paper assesses the most recent evidence on trends in disability among the population aged 65 and over in 12 OECD countries: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. The focus is on reviewing trends in severe disability (or dependency), defined where possible as one or more limitations in basic activities of daily living (ADLs, such as eating, washing/bathing, dressing, and getting in and out of bed), given that such severe limitations tend to be closely related to demands for long-term care. One of the principal findings from this review is that there is clear evidence of a decline in disability among elderly people in only five of the twelve countries studied (Denmark, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands and the United States). Three countries (Belgium, Japan and Sweden) report an increasing rate of severe disability among people aged 65 and over during the past five to ten years, and two countries (Australia, Canada) report a stable rate. In France and the United Kingdom, data from different surveys show different trends in ADL disability rates among elderly people, making it impossible to reach any definitive conclusion on the direction of the trend. One of the main policy implications that can be drawn from the findings of this study is that it would not be prudent for policymakers to count on future reductions in the prevalence of severe disability among elderly people to offset completely the rising demand for long-term care that will result from population ageing. Even though disability prevalence rates have declined to some extent in some countries, the ageing of the population and the greater longevity of individuals can be expected to lead to increasing numbers of people at older ages with a severe disability and in need of long-term care. The results of the projection exercise to 2030 for all countries, regardless of different trends in disability prevalence, confirm this important finding. <BR>Alors que le nombre et la proportion de personnes âgées de 65 ans et plus vont continuer de s'accroître dans les pays de l'OCDE au cours des prochaines décennies, une amélioration de l'état fonctionnel des personnes âgées pourrait contribuer à ralentir l'augmentation de la demande et des dépenses pour les soins de longue durée. Cette étude examine les tendances les plus récentes concernant l'évolution de l'incapacité parmi la population âgée de 65 ans et plus dans 12 pays de l'OCDE : Australie, Belgique, Canada, Danemark, Finlande, France, Italie, Japon, Pays-Bas, Suède, Royaume-Uni et États- Unis. L'étude se concentre sur l'incapacité sévère (ou la dépendance), définie dans la mesure du possible comme une ou plusieurs limitations dans les activités de la vie quotidienne (AVQ, comme la capacité de se nourrir, de faire sa toilette, de s'habiller et de sortir du lit), étant donné que ce sont de telles limitations qui tendent à être associées à des demandes pour des soins de longue durée. Un des principaux résultats de cette revue est qu'il y a eu une diminution claire de la prévalence de l'incapacité sévère parmi la population âgée dans seulement cinq des douze pays étudiés (Danemark, Finlande, Italie, Pays-Bas et États-Unis). Par ailleurs, dans trois pays (Belgique, Japon, Suède), on observe une augmentation de la prévalence de l'incapacité sévère parmi les personnes âgées au cours des cinq ou dix dernières années, alors que les taux ont été stables dans deux pays (Australie, Canada). Enfin, en France et au Royaume- Uni, il n'est pas possible pour l'instant de tirer des conclusions définitives, parce que les résultats des analyses de tendance divergent selon les sources (enquêtes) utilisées. Une des principales implications politiques de ces résultats est qu'il ne serait pas prudent de la part des décideurs politiques de compter sur une réduction à venir de la prévalence de l'incapacité sévère chez les personnes âgées pour compenser l'augmentation de la demande de soins de longue durée qui résultera du vieillissement de la population. Même si la prévalence de l'incapacité sévère a diminué dans une certaine mesure dans certains pays, il est à prévoir que le vieillissement de la population et l'allongement de l'espérance de vie vont contribuer à l'augmentation du nombre de personnes âgées dépendantes. Les résultats de l'exercice de projections jusqu'en 2030 pour tous les pays, quelles que soient les tendances passées de la prévalence de l'incapacité, viennent appuyer cette conclusion.
    Keywords: disability, OECD countries
    JEL: J11 J14
    Date: 2007–03–30
  23. By: Marco Caliendo; Alexander S. Kritikos
    Abstract: This paper empirically analyzes whether the character-based approach, which is based on the personality structure and the human capital of business founders, allows prediction of entrepreneurial success. A unique data set is used consisting of 414 previously unemployed persons whose personal characteristics were screened by different methods, namely a one-day assessment center (AC) and a standardized questionnaire, before they launched their business. Results are partly unexpected: first, there is almost no correlation between the AC data and the questionnaire. Second, the predictive power of the AC data is slightly better than that of the questionnaire, but lower than expected in theory. Interestingly, for those subgroups where the AC data have low predictive power, the questionnaire does better. Third, when success is measured in terms of employees hired, the character-based approach is a poor predictor.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, psychological assessment, character-based approach, success prediction
    JEL: M13 J23 C13
    Date: 2007

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