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on Forecasting |
| By: | Ludena, Carlos; Hertel, Thomas; Preckel, Paul; Foster, Kenneth; Nin Pratt, Alejandro |
| Abstract: | There is considerable interest in projections of future productivity growth in agriculture. Whether one is interested in the outlook for global commodity markets, future patterns of international trade, or the interactions between land use, deforestation and ecological diversity, the rate of productivity growth in agriculture is an essential input. Yet solid projections for this variable have proven elusive - particularly on a global basis. This is due, in no small part, to the difficulty in measuring historical productivity growth. The purpose of this paper is to report the latest time series evidence on total factor productivity growth for crops, ruminants and non-ruminant livestock, on a global basis. We then follow with tests for convergence amongst regions, providing forecasts for farm productivity growth to the year 2040. The results suggest that most regions in the sample are likely to experience larger productivity gains in livestock than in crops. Within livestock, the non-ruminant sector is expected to continue to be more dynamic than the ruminant sector. Given the rapid rates of productivity growth observed recently, non-ruminant and crop productivity in developing countries may be converging to the productivity levels of developed countries. For ruminants, the results show that productivity levels may be diverging between developed and developing countries. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:2220&r=for |
| By: | Albrecht, James; van den Berg, Gerard J; Vroman, Susan |
| Abstract: | The Swedish adult education program known as the Knowledge Lift (1997--2002) was unprecedented in its size and scope, aiming to raise the skill level of large numbers of low-skill workers. This paper evaluates the potential effects of this program on aggregate labour market outcomes. This is done by calibrating an equilibrium search model with heterogeneous worker skills using pre-program data and then forecasting the program impacts. We compare the forecasts to observed aggregate labour market outcomes after termination of the program. |
| Keywords: | calibration; job search; program evaluation; returns to education; Swedish labour market; unemployment; wages |
| JEL: | C31 D83 J21 J24 J31 J64 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5927&r=for |
| By: | Österholm, Pär (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Within a decision-making group, such as the monetary-policy committee of a central bank,group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling each agent’s judgement as one scenario in a macroeconomic model. Each judgement set has a specific dynamic impact on the system, and accordingly, a particular predictive density – or fan chart – associated with it. A weighted linear combination of the predictive densities yields a final predictive density that correctly reflects the uncertainty perceived by the agents generating the forecast. In a model-based environment, this framework allows judgement to be incorporated into fan charts in a formalised manner. |
| Keywords: | Forecasts; Predictive density; Linear opinion pool |
| JEL: | C15 C53 E17 E50 |
| Date: | 2006–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2006_030&r=for |