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on Forecasting |
| By: | Javier J. Pérez (Centro de Estudios Andaluces) |
| Abstract: | In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The indicators are mainly based on monthly and quarterly public accounts' figures. I illustrate how the dynamics of the indicators show a remarkable performance when anticipating general government accounts' movements, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms. |
| Keywords: | Leading indicators; Fiscal forecasting and monitoring; General Government Deficit; European Monetary Union |
| JEL: | C53 E6 H6 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cea:doctra:e2005_14&r=for |
| By: | Aurelijus Dabušinskas (Bank of Estonia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between money and prices in Estonia in the period 1997Q1-2003Q3. The concept of a price (or real money) gap suggested by the P-star theory is applied to investigate whether information about the current money stock can be used to explain and/or predict GDP deflator inflation over the sample period. The results show that the money gap measure dominates the output gap as an explanatory variable for inflation in the short run. However, the money gap does not seem to be a proper indicator for predicting inflation over longer horizons, say, 12 months ahead. There are some signs that the output gap is becoming a better indicator of future inflation over time, but more data are needed to confirm this hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | P-star, inflation, money demand |
| JEL: | E31 E41 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2005-07&r=for |