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on Financial Markets |
| By: | Elie Bouri (School of Business, Lebanese American University, Lebanon); Ufuk Can (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye, Adana, Turkiye; Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; Economic Research Forum, Cairo, Egypt); Oguzhan Cepni (Ostim Technical University, Ankara, Turkiye; University of Edinburgh Business School, Centre for Business, Climate Change, and Sustainability; Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | We examine how corporate earnings (CE) announcement shocks influence stock market bubbles in the US using daily data from January 1990 to June 2025. After identifying positive and negative bubbles over short, medium, and long-term periods, Local Projections (LP) combine information from corporate earnings announcements with the varying intensity of shocks experienced on those specific days. Results show that positive earnings shocks boost positive bubbles, particularly at the medium to long-term, while reducing negative bubbles at the short-term. Therefore, favourable earnings news can fuel prolonged speculative episodes by increasing investor optimism, and lead to deep crashes but only mild recoveries. |
| Keywords: | Multi-Scale Positive and Negative Bubbles, Stock Markets, Corporate Earnings Shocks, Local Projections Model |
| JEL: | C22 G10 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202543 |
| By: | Stanislav Selitskiy |
| Abstract: | We investigate a number of Artificial Neural Network architectures (well-known and more ``exotic'') in application to the long-term financial time-series forecasts of indexes on different global markets. The particular area of interest of this research is to examine the correlation of these indexes' behaviour in terms of Machine Learning algorithms cross-training. Would training an algorithm on an index from one global market produce similar or even better accuracy when such a model is applied for predicting another index from a different market? The demonstrated predominately positive answer to this question is another argument in favour of the long-debated Efficient Market Hypothesis of Eugene Fama. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.08658 |
| By: | Lorenzo Garlanda-Longueville; Mathias Lé; Kevin Parra Ramirez |
| Abstract: | Tax havens represent the largest financing hub for financial institutions. For banks, they account for more than 20% of all cross-border banking debts worldwide. Yet, our understanding of the underlying drivers remains limited, partly due to data scarcity and partly because of the difficulty of disentangling tax incentives from regulatory effects. Drawing on a unique global dataset covering major international banks and offshore financial centres – and employing a novel approach to isolate regulatory arbitrage – this paper finds that the location of cross-border intra-group debt held by multinational banks is shaped by tax considerations, even when regulatory differences are accounted for. In doing so, we provide, for the first time, direct evidence of profit shifting via debt shifting at a global scale, overcoming a key limitation of existing studies, which typically rely on single-country data. Based on our sample data, we show that the magnitude of “excess” offshore banking debt globally recorded in tax havens is significant. |
| Keywords: | Profit shifting, Debt shifting, Multinational banks, Taxation, Intragroup transactions |
| JEL: | H26 G21 F23 F34 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-43 |
| By: | C. Peter; J. Li (Audencia Business School); H. S. Wilson Tong; C. Chingfu Tsai |
| Abstract: | We demonstrate that a persistent pattern exists in the evolution of the MTB ratio from 1999 to 2023, wherein firms with high (low) MTB ratios tend to maintain those levels over time. The persistence of the MTB ratio is independent of industry effects and cannot be well explained by accounting performance. Intangible investment plays a crucial role in determining the MTB ratio, and its persistence is primarily maintained through continued internal intangible investment rather than external mergers and acquisitions. Moreover, although U.S. firms have increased their investment in intangible assets over the past 25 years, the gap between high- and low-MTB firms in intangible investment has widened. Our results suggest that the basis of stock value has shifted from tangible to intangible investments over time. |
| Keywords: | Market-to-book ratio, return-on-equity, value persistence, abnormal earnings, intangible investment |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05302706 |
| By: | Alain P. Chaboud; Michael J. Fleming; Ellen Correia Golay; Yesol Huh; Frank M. Keane; Or Shachar |
| Abstract: | In this article, we study trading activity and liquidity of off-the-run U.S. Treasury securities. Off-the-run Treasuries are seasoned securities, account for about 98 percent of all Treasuries outstanding, and played a central role in the pandemic-fueled dash-for-cash in March 2020. Understanding these securities better can improve thinking around how market resilience might be improved. We document and discuss the evolution of trading activity and liquidity for these securities and how these attributes differ from on-the-run securities. We also consider several potential market structure changes that could improve the liquidity of off-the-run Treasuries, including debt buybacks, expanded central clearing, and increased data transparency. |
| Keywords: | Treasury market; market structure; off-the-run; liquidity; trading |
| JEL: | G12 G18 G20 |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:102080 |
| By: | Matteo Bonato (Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, South Africa; IPAG Business School, 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France; B-CCaS, University of Edinburgh Business School); Oguzhan Cepni (Ostim Technical University, Ankara, Turkiye; University of Edinburgh Business School, Centre for Business, Climate Change, and Sustainability; Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We study the out-of-sample forecasting value of and state-level and market-wideoverall commercial, industrial, and residential electricity sales for monthly state-level (1995--2025) realized stock market volatility (RV) of the United States (U.S.). We control for state-level and market-wide realized moments (leverage, skewness, kurtosis, and tail risks). We estimate our forecasting models using a boosting algorithm, and two alternative statistical learning algorithms (forward best predictor selection and random forests). We find evidence that realized moments have predictive power for subsequent RV at forecast horizons up to one year in some model configurations, while evidence of predictive power of the growth rate of electricity sales, whether measured at state-level or at the market-level, is mixed and mainly concentrated, on average across states, at the short forecast horizon. |
| Keywords: | Stock market, Realized volatility, Electricity sales, Statistical learning, Forecasting |
| JEL: | C22 C53 G10 G17 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202540 |
| By: | Kimie Harada; Thanh Thi Phuong Nguyen |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of phased exclusions from the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX), introduced by the Tokyo Stock Exchange to gradually remove firms with extremely small free-float market capitalization. Using event study methodology, we analyse the market reactions to ten sequential index weight reductions implemented between 2022 and 2025. Our findings show that excluded firms experienced consistently negative abnormal returns, especially among the smallest and least liquid stocks. While previous research has documented stock price declines upon index exclusion, this study highlights that even under a phased exclusion system, the negative impact remains strong. Notably, the excluded firms in our sample are typically overlooked by analysts and investors, yet they still experienced substantial adverse effects. These results demonstrate that mechanical rebalancing by passive funds imposes significant costs on excluded firms, even though the overall effect on the index is minimal. Our findings carry policy implications for Asian equity markets, where major indices are also constructed from all listed stocks. If similar reforms were implemented in those markets, the same pattern of concentrated negative effects on individual stocks might be observed. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e217 |
| By: | Qian, Yuqing; Wang, Zhongchi; Ye, Fan |
| Abstract: | Climate change poses significant risks to the insurance industry, particularly through increased frequency and severity of weather events. In this paper, we examine the extent to which temperature, wind speed, and rainfall influence the stock prices of companies listed on the UK stock market. By using data of 1. Andrews Sykes Group plc. (ANSY) 2. Aviva plc (AVIVA) 3. Legal & General Group plc (LGEN) 4. Prudential plc (PRU) 5. Direct Line Insurance Group plc (DLGD) and conducting the multiple linear regression model and random forest model, the findings, illustrated through scatterplots, indicate a weak relationship and correlation between the dependent (stock prices) and independent variables (weather data), as shown by the P-values and R-values. |
| Keywords: | climate change; stock market; UK insurance company |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130252 |