nep-fmk New Economics Papers
on Financial Markets
Issue of 2018‒05‒14
five papers chosen by

  1. Deep Learning for Predicting Asset Returns By Guanhao Feng; Jingyu He; Nicholas G. Polson
  2. The impact of the ECB asset purchases on the European bond market structure: Granular evidence on ownership concentration By Martijn Boermans; Viacheslav Keshkov
  3. Financial Markets, Innovations and Cleaner Energy Production in OECD Countries By Mamun, Md Al; Sohag, Kazi; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  4. Is the Dutch stock market getting riskier? By Suarez, Ronny
  5. Callable Convertible Bonds in Sequential Financing: Evidence on the Western European Market By Olivier Adoukonou; Florence André; Jean-Laurent Viviani

  1. By: Guanhao Feng; Jingyu He; Nicholas G. Polson
    Abstract: Deep learning searches for nonlinear factors for predicting asset returns. Predictability is achieved via multiple layers of composite factors as opposed to additive ones. Viewed in this way, asset pricing studies can be revisited using multi-layer deep learners, such as rectified linear units (ReLU) or long-short-term-memory (LSTM) for time-series effects. State-of-the-art algorithms including stochastic gradient descent (SGD), TensorFlow and dropout design provide imple- mentation and efficient factor exploration. To illustrate our methodology, we revisit the equity market risk premium dataset of Welch and Goyal (2008). We find the existence of nonlinear factors which explain predictability of returns, in particular at the extremes of the characteristic space. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.
    Date: 2018–04
  2. By: Martijn Boermans; Viacheslav Keshkov
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of the Eurosystem's Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) on the micro market structure of sovereign bonds. In particular, we analyze how the PSPP affected the ownership concentration of PSPP-eligible bonds. In line with portfolio rebalancing models we hypothesize that the entry of relatively new and dominant investor will unevenly displace certain investors who are willing to rebalance their portfolios, thus reducing the dispersion of holdings in the market. Using detailed security-by-security holdings data, we estimate a difference-in-differences model with a matched control group. We find that the announcement of the PSPP did not affect the ownership concentration of sovereign bonds. However, during the implementation phase the asset purchases increased the ownership concentration of the eligible sovereign bonds relative to the control group, potentially due to asymmetric portfolio rebalancing. We argue that quantitative easing had market distortionary effects and our results may explain the growing concerns for bond scarcity, market liquidity dry-ups and price spikes in the European sovereign bond market.
    Keywords: quantitative easing; portfolio rebalancing; market concentration; ECB; PSPP; securities holdings statistics; unconventional monetary policy
    JEL: G11 E52 E58
    Date: 2018–04
  3. By: Mamun, Md Al; Sohag, Kazi; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
    Abstract: Using a large sample of 25 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, we provide evidence that the growth of equity and credit markets promotes cleaner energy (biomass renewable energy, non biomass renewable energy, and total bio and non-bio renewable energy) production in those countries. We also find that the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) adversely affects the production of cleaner energy. Our results are robust to alternative definitions of financial market development, cleaner energy, and controlling for the effect of government subsidy on cleaner energy. By supporting the demand-induced supply of cleaner energy, we demonstrate that the positive and significant effect of financial market development (FMD) on cleaner energy is stronger in countries with higher growth in carbon intensity and a lower availability of fossil fuels than otherwise. Our results also support the argument that financing uncertain projects such as those that produce cleaner energy should be greater in countries with a higher innovation culture than those where financial markets are already accustomed to undertaking risky investments. The overall results are also robust under the conditions of short-run and long-run homogeneity and the cross-sectional dependence in the sample. Policy implications are also provided.
    Keywords: Biomass and cleaner energy production, common correlated effects pooled (CCEP), credit and equity markets, global financial crisis, innovation
    JEL: A1
    Date: 2018–04–01
  4. By: Suarez, Ronny
    Abstract: In this paper, we compared the distribution of the AEX Index monthly returns of the period 1994-2005 against the period 2006-2017 to evaluate the presence of negative extreme events. Through the analysis of the Return Level value (R10) we have concluded that AEX Index period 1994-2005 has a similar risk that the period 2006-2017.
    Keywords: AEX Index; Generalized Pareto Distribution, Return Level
    JEL: C0
    Date: 2018–04–13
  5. By: Olivier Adoukonou (UA - Université d'Angers, CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Florence André (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-Laurent Viviani (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The objective of the paper is to test empirically the Mayers (1998) sequential financing hypothesis stating that companies issue callable convertible debt to overcome the problem of overinvestment (Jensen, 1986) that could arise in a sequential investment setting. As a result of this theory we should observe higher investment and financing activities at the exercise call dates especially if it is in the money. Based on a sample of 277 Callable Convertible Bonds issued by non-financial firms in Western Europe between 1994 and 2009, comprising 161 callable convertible bonds being subject to forced conversion (calling subsample) and 116 non-called convertible bonds (non-calling subsample) and using classical and difference-in-differences methodologies, we find evidence only weakly in line with the sequential financing hypothesis of Mayers (1998). For the calling firms, we, in general, do not observe significant positive changes in capital expenditure at call dates that are greater than those of the non-calling firms. We observe a significant difference in new equity issuances only for the comparison between calling and non-calling firms. Unlike Alderson et al. (2006), we find that in the money calling firms increase their investment around the convertible bonds calls more than out of the money calling firms. We also find a positive impact of the call decision on the change of the new debt issuance at the call dates.
    Keywords: Sequential financing hypothesis, Convertible bonds
    Date: 2018

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