By: |
Maryam Ahmad (Lombardy Advanced School of Economic Research (LASER));
Matteo Manera (University of Milan-Bicocca and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM));
Mehdi Sadeghzadeh (Bocconi University) |
Abstract: |
This paper provides an analysis of the link between the oil market and the
U.S. stock market returns at the aggregate as well as industry levels. We
empirically model oil price changes as driven by speculative demand shocks
along with consumption demand and supply shocks in the oil market. We also
take into account in our model all the factors that affect stock market price
movements over and above the oil market, in order to quantify the pure effect
of oil price shocks on returns. The results show that stock returns respond to
oil price shocks differently, depending on the causes behind the shocks.
Impulse response analysis suggests that consumption demand shocks are the most
relevant drivers of the stock market return, relative to other oil market
driven shocks. Industry level analysis is performed to control for the
heterogeneity of the responses of returns to oil price changes. The results
show that both cost side and demand side effects of oil price shocks matter
for the responses of industries to oil price shocks. However, the main driver
of the variation in industries’ returns is the shock to aggregate stock market. |
Keywords: |
Oil Market, Oil Price, Stock Market |
JEL: |
G1 G12 Q41 |
Date: |
2015–10 |
URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2015.91&r=fmk |