New Economics Papers
on Financial Markets
Issue of 2013‒08‒23
four papers chosen by

  1. What does a financial shock do? First international evidence By Fornari, Fabio; Stracca, Livio
  2. Large global volatility shocks, equity markets and globalisation: 1885-2011 By Mehl, Arnaud
  3. Signaling by Underpricing the Initial Public Offerings of Primary Listings in an Emerging Market By Ales Cornanic; Jiri Novak
  4. Oil Price Shocks and Volatility in Australian Stock Returns ‎ By Ratti, Ronald A.; Hasan, M. Zahid

  1. By: Fornari, Fabio; Stracca, Livio
    Abstract: In this paper we attempt to evaluate the quantitative impact of financial shocks on key indicators of real activity and financial conditions. We focus on financial shocks as they have received wide attention in the recent literature and in the policy debate after the global financial crisis. We estimate a panel VAR for 21 advanced economies based on quarterly data between 1985 and 2011, where financial shocks are identified through sign restrictions. Overall, we find robust evidence that financial shocks can be separately identified from other shock types and that they exert a significant influence on key macroeconomic variables such as GDP and (particularly) investment, but it is unclear whether these shocks are demand or supply shocks from the standpoint of their macroeconomic impact. The financial development and the financial structure of a given country are found not to matter much for the intensity of the propagation of financial shocks. Moreover, we generally find that these shocks play a role not only in crisis times, but also in normal conditions. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings for monetary policy. JEL Classification: E44, E52, E58, G20
    Keywords: credit, Financial shocks, Identification, leverage, stochastic pooling, VAR
    Date: 2013–03
  2. By: Mehl, Arnaud
    Abstract: I estimate the transmission of large global volatility shocks in international equity markets from the earlier (pre-1914) to the modern era of globalisation. To that end, I identify 43 such shocks over the period 1885-2011, defined as significant increases in unanticipated volatility in US equity markets, which I relate to well-known historical events. My estimates suggest that the response of global equity markets to these shocks in a panel of 16 countries is both statistically significant and large economically. On average, global equity market valuations correct by about 20% in the month when a shock occurs. There is substantial heterogeneity in responses both across countries and time, however, which can be partly explained by differences in global trade integration. I find no evidence that other potential theoretical determinants, such as output composition, country fundamentals or global policy responses matter, by contrast. These results shed light on a neglected aspect of globalisation, which creates opportunities but also heightens the exposure of economies to acute surges in global uncertainty and risk aversion. JEL Classification: F30, F31, N20
    Keywords: equity markets, Globalisation, international linkages, large global volatility shocks
    Date: 2013–05
  3. By: Ales Cornanic (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Jiri Novak (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: The signaling hypothesis suggests that firms have incentives to underprice their initial public offerings (IPOs) to signal their quality to the outside investors and to issue seasoned equity (SEO) at more favorable terms. While the initial empirical evidence on the signaling hypothesis was weak, Francis et al. (2010) show that foreign firms from segmented (rather than integrated) markets strategically underprice their IPO in U.S. markets to distinguish themselves from the weaker players. Hence, the attractiveness of the signaling strategy seems to be related to the a priori level of information asymmetry. We examine the use of signaling in an emerging market where the information asymmetry is likely to be higher relative to an established market. Using a sample of 158 Polish IPOs from 2005 – 2009, we show that firms that underprice their IPOs are more likely (i) to issue seasoned equity, (ii) to issue a larger portion of equity at the SEO, and (iii) to make the SEO sooner after the IPO, all of which are consistent with the signaling hypothesis. This evidence suggests that the results of Francis et al. (2010) are not limited to IPOs made by foreign firms in an established market, but they can be extended to primary listings by domestic firms in markets where the information asymmetry is sufficiently large for the benefit of the signal to outweigh its cost.
    Keywords: initial public offering, seasoned equity offering, underpricing, signaling, emerging market, Poland
    JEL: G14 G15 G30
    Date: 2013–07
  4. By: Ratti, Ronald A.; Hasan, M. Zahid
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of oil shocks on return and volatility in the sectors of ‎Australian stock market and finds significant effects for most sectors. For the overall market ‎index, an increase in oil price return significantly reduces return, and an increase in oil price ‎return volatility significantly reduces volatility. An advantage of looking at sector returns ‎rather than a general index of stock returns is that sectors may well differ markedly in how ‎they respond to oil price shocks. The energy and material sectors (as expected) and the ‎financial sector (surprisingly) are out of step (in different ways) with results for the other ‎sectors and for the overall index. A rise in oil price increases returns in the energy and material ‎sectors and an increase in oil price return volatility increases stock return volatility in the ‎financial sector. Explanation for the negative (positive) association between oil return (oil ‎return volatility) and returns (volatility of returns) in the financial sector must be based on the ‎association via lending to and/or holdings of corporate bonds issued by firms with significant ‎exposure to oil price fluctuations and their speculative positions in oil related instruments. ‎
    Keywords: oil price shocks, volatility in stock returns, Australian sector returns
    JEL: G1 G10 Q4
    Date: 2013–01–01

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