New Economics Papers
on Financial Markets
Issue of 2013‒05‒24
five papers chosen by

  1. A Model for Stock Returns and Volatility By Tao Ma; R. A. Serota
  2. Measuring Alpha in the Fund Management Industry: Do Female Managers Perform Better? By Vassilios Babalos; Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Nikolaos Philippas
  3. What do the Fama-French factors add to CCAPM? By Pongrapeeporn Abhakorn; Peter N. Smith; Michael R.Wickens
  4. Asymmetry in Government Bond Returns By Ippei Fujiwara; Lena Mareen Korber; Daisuke Nagakura
  5. A Semiparametric Early Warning Model of Financial Stress Events By Ian Christensen; Fuchun Li

  1. By: Tao Ma; R. A. Serota
    Abstract: We prove that Student's t-distribution provides one of the better fits to returns of S&P component stocks and the generalized inverse gamma distribution best fits VIX and VXO volatility data. We further argue that a more accurate measure of the volatility may be possible based on the fact that stock returns can be understood as the product distribution of the volatility and normal distributions. We find Brown noise in VIX and VXO time series and explain the mean and the variance of the relaxation times on approach to the steady-state distribution.
    Date: 2013–05
  2. By: Vassilios Babalos; Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Nikolaos Philippas
    Abstract: This paper examines the performance of 358 European diversified equity mutual funds controlling for gender differences. Fund performance is evaluated against funds' designated market indices and representative style portfolios. Consistently with previous studies, no significant differences in performance and risk are found between female and male managed funds. However, perverse market timing manifests itself mainly in female managed funds and in the left tail of the returns distribution. Interestingly, at fund level there is evidence of significant overperformance that survives even after accounting for funds' exposure to known risk factors. Employing a quantile regression approach reveals that fund performance is highly dependent on the selection of the specific quantile of the returns distribution; also, style consistency for male and female managers manifests itself across different quantiles. These results have important implications for fund management companies and for retail investors' asset allocation strategies.
    Keywords: Mutual funds, performance, timing, gender difference, quantile regression
    JEL: G11 G23
    Date: 2013
  3. By: Pongrapeeporn Abhakorn; Peter N. Smith; Michael R.Wickens
    Abstract: This study extends standard C-CAPM by including two additional factors related to firm size (SMB) and book-to-market value ratio (HML) – the Fama-French factors. CCAPM is least able to price firms with low book-to-market ratios. The explanation of these returns, as well as the returns on the SMB and HML portfolios, is significantly improved by the inclusion of the HML factor. The component of the risk premia explained by consumption varies across size. We suggest that a possible explanation for the role of HML is its association with the investment growth prospects of firms.
    Date: 2013–05
  4. By: Ippei Fujiwara; Lena Mareen Korber; Daisuke Nagakura
    Abstract: Is there asymmetry in the distribution of government bond returns in developed countries? Can asymmetries be predicted using financial and macroeconomic variables? To answer the first question, we provide evidence for asymmetry in government bond returns in particular for short maturities. This finding has important implications for modelling and forecasting government bond returns. For example, widely used models for yield curve analysis such as the affine term structure model assume symmetrically distributed innovations. To answer the second question, we find that liquidity in government bond markets predicts the coefficient of skewness with a positive sign, meaning that the probability of a large and negative excess return is more likely in a less liquid market. In addition, a positive realized return is associated with a negative coefficient of skewness, or a small probability of a large and negative return in the future.
    Keywords: Government Bond Returns; Skewness; Conditional Symmetry Test
    JEL: G10 G12 E43
    Date: 2013–02
  5. By: Ian Christensen; Fuchun Li
    Abstract: The authors use the Financial Stress Index created by the International Monetary Fund to predict the likelihood of financial stress events for five developed countries: Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. They use a semiparametric panel data model with nonparametric specification of the link functions and linear index function. The empirical results show that the semiparametric early warning model captures some well-known financial stress events. For Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States, the semiparametric model can provide much better out-of-sample predicted probabilities than the logit model for the time period from 2007Q2 to 2010Q2, while for France, the logit model provides better performance for non-financial stress events than the semiparametric model.
    Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods; Financial stability
    JEL: G01 G17 C12 C14
    Date: 2013

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