New Economics Papers
on Financial Markets
Issue of 2012‒11‒24
five papers chosen by

  1. Asset pricing with uncertain betas: A long-term perspective By Gollier, Christian
  2. Excessive credit growth and countercyclical capital buffers in basel III: an empirical evidence from central and east european countries By Seidler, Jakub; Gersl, Adam
  3. Corporate Bond Market in India: Current Scope and Future Challenges By Mukherjee, Dr. Kedar nath
  4. Endogeneous Risk in Monopolistic Competition By Vladislav Damjanovic
  5. Reverse Mergers: The Chinese Experience By Jindra, Jan; Voetmann, Torben; Walkling, Ralph A.

  1. By: Gollier, Christian
    Abstract: How should one evaluate investment projects whose CCAPM betas are uncertain? This question is particularly crucial for projects yielding long-lasting impacts on the economy, as is the case for example for many green investment projects. We defined the notion of a certainty equivalent beta. We characterize it as a function of the characteristics of the uncertainties affecting the asset’s beta and the economy as a whole. We show that its term structure is not constant and that, for short maturities, it equals the expected beta. If the expected beta is larger than a threshold (which is negative and large in absolute value in all realistic calibrations), the term structure of the certainty equivalent beta is increasing and tends to its largest plausible value. In the benchmark case in which the asset’s beta is normally distributed, the certainty equivalent beta becomes infinite for finite maturities.
    Keywords: asset prices, term structure, risk premium, certainty equivalent beta.
    JEL: E43 E44 G11 G12
    Date: 2012–11
  2. By: Seidler, Jakub; Gersl, Adam
    Abstract: Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in the financial sector. This paper examines the issue of how best to determine whether the observed level of private sector credit is excessive in the context of the “countercyclical capital buffer”, a macroprudential tool proposed in the new regulatory framework of Basel II by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. An empirical analysis of selected Central and Eastern European countries, including the Czech Republic, provides alternative estimates of excessive private credit and shows that the HP filter calculation proposed by the Basel Committee is not necessarily a suitable indicator of excessive credit growth for converging countries.
    Keywords: credit growth; financial crisis; countercyclical capital buffer; Basel II
    JEL: G18 G01 G21
    Date: 2012
  3. By: Mukherjee, Dr. Kedar nath
    Abstract: The capital market of an economy is considered to be well developed, only when a parallel development is ensured both in the equity and the debt segment. There is no doubt that the equity market in India is quite well developed and plays a crucial role in the growth of Indian economy. At the same time, Govt. debt market in India has also experienced a tremendous growth in the last decade. But unlike Govt. bonds, the corporate debt segment in India is still in the nascent stage and requires lot of initiatives to bring it to the Global standard. Bonds of different tenors issued by Central or State Governments and other PSUs capture more than 80 percent of the total debt market volume in India. Therefore, it has become very important to have a well run and liquid corporate bond market that can play a critical role in supporting economic development in India, both at the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels. Massive future growth in infrastructure, as required to achieve the higher GDP growth, can only be ensured through availability of long-term financing and also at a reasonable cost. Due to several issues, applicable to several market players, bank financing is not the right choice to meet all the financing needs to facilitate such growth. A well developed corporate bond market can be the optimal alternative, not only to support the financing requirement for infrastructural development, but also to relieve banks from all the problems of long-term financing, and spreading out the huge financing risk to a wider investor base to strengthen India’s bank-based financial system, to allow corporate borrowers to tap the low cost market, to enable investors including FIIs to earn fixed but higher returns, and above all to ensure overall growth of the economy. The present study analyze the existing structure of Indian corporate bond market, vis-à-vis the other developed markets, and attempted to explain the movements and changes taken place in Indian debt market during the last decade, may be as a result of several regulatory initiatives. The importance of an well developed corporate bond market for various groups of Indian financial sector, followed by the important factor contributing to the inferior growth of such market, supported by several facts and figures, are discussed in the study. It has been finally observed that, even if some changes have taken place to strengthen Indian corporate debt market, the market has a significant scope to contribute to the overall growth of Indian economy, but obviously subject to some very important and stringent initiatives from the Government and the concerned regulatory bodies.
    Keywords: Bond Market; Corporate Bond; India; Secondary Market
    JEL: G10
    Date: 2012–06–15
  4. By: Vladislav Damjanovic
    Abstract: We consider a model of financial intermediation with a monopolistic competition market structure. A non-monotonic relationship between the risk measured as a probability of default and the degree of competition is established.
    Keywords: Competition and Risk, Risk in DSGE models, Bank competition; Bank failure, Default correlation, Risk-shifting effect, Margin effect.
    JEL: G21 G24 D43 E13 E43
    Date: 2012–10–24
  5. By: Jindra, Jan (OH State University); Voetmann, Torben (Cornerstone Research); Walkling, Ralph A. (Drexel University)
    Abstract: Chinese reverse mergers (CRMs) claim to provide easy entry to the U.S. and international markets. Recently, a large number of Chinese firms using reverse merger transactions have been listed on the U.S. stock exchanges. We review the historical use and mechanics of these reverse mergers, and contrast them with initial public offerings (IPOs). We also explore settlements of securities class action lawsuits involving Chinese firms. Our analysis shows that larger, more reputable Chinese firms are significantly less likely to pursue reverse mergers. We also find that CRM firms are more likely to be subject to class action litigation in the U.S and that the settlement amounts are smaller for CRM firms than for Chinese IPO firms. Our analysis further indicates that CRM firms significantly underperform the Chinese IPO firms. Thus, the evidence suggests that CRMs are not substitutes for Chinese IPOs.
    JEL: G14
    Date: 2012–10

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