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on Financial Markets |
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Issue of 2011‒02‒05
ten papers chosen by |
| By: | Céline Gimet (GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines); Thomas Lagoarde-Segot (DEFI - Centre de Recherche en Développement Economique et Finance Internationale - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II, Euromed Management - Euromed Management) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates wether the ongoing financial crisis has destabilized the microstructures of ASEAN stock market. Using daily stock market data from 2007 to 2010, we first develop a set of monthly country-level liquidity, efficiency, international integration and volatility indicators. We then analyze the impact of global market volatility shocks on those indicators, using a set of Bayesian S-VAR models. Finally, forecast error variance decomposition analysis and impulse response function permits to identify the magnitude and the symmetry of ASEAN financial systems' exposures to international shocks. Our results uncover significant and asymmetrical schock transmission channels. We draw implications for the design of future integration initiatives. |
| Keywords: | microstructures ; regional integration ; schock vulnerability ; SVAR |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00560218&r=fmk |
| By: | Robinson, David T. (Duke University); Sensoy, Berk A. (Ohio State University) |
| Abstract: | Using detailed quarterly cash flow data for a large sample of private equity funds from 1984-2010, we examine cross-sectional and time-series cash flow performance of private equity funds across a range of asset classes, including venture capital, buyout, real estate, distressed debt, and funds-of-funds. Our data also include key features of the management contracts, specifically carried interest, management fees, and general partner capital commitments, allowing us to investigate the determinants of contractual terms and to link contractual terms to performance. The data reveal important facts about the private equity market in the 21st century. On average, our sample pri-vate equity funds have outperformed the S&P 500 on a net-of-fee basis by about 15%, or about 1.5% per year. Performance varies considerably across fund types and over time. Larger funds require larger percentage capital commitments from the general partners (GPs), consistent with concerns about GP incentives in large funds. Larger funds also charge lower management fees, and obtain higher carried interest, consistent with learning about GP ability. Management fees, but not carried interest, are higher during fundraising boom periods, even controlling for fund size, suggesting that the fixed/variable mix of GP compensation shifts toward fixed components during fundraising booms, consistent with increased GP bargaining power in booms. In marked contrast to the mutual fund literature, there is no relation between management fee and carry terms and net-of-fee performance, suggesting that GPs with higher fees earn them in the form of higher gross-of-fee performance. There is some evidence that funds with lower GP capital commitments outperform. Conclusions about private equity performance over time differ markedly depending on whether performance is measured in absolute terms (IRR) or adjusted for the performance of the S&P 500 (PME). In particular, funds raised during hot markets underperform in terms of IRR, but not in terms of PME. Capital calls and distributions are both more likely and larger when public equity valuations rise and when liquidity conditions tighten. During the financial crisis and ensuing recession of 2007-2009, the component of calls unexplained by macroeconomic factors spiked, distributions plummeted, and the sensitivity of calls and distributions to underlying macroeconomic conditions changed considerably. |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2010-21&r=fmk |
| By: | Martin Brown (Swiss National Bank, Tilburg University); Ralph De Haas (EBRD) |
| Abstract: | Based on survey data from 193 banks in 20 countries we provide the first bank-level analysis of the determinants of foreign currency (FX) lending in emerging Europe. We find that FX lending by all banks, regardless of their ownership structure, is strongly determined by the macroeconomic environment. We find no evidence of foreign banks ‘pushing’ FX loans indiscriminately because of easier access to wholesale funding in foreign currency. In fact, while foreign banks do lend more in FX to corporate clients, they do not do so to retail clients. We also find that after a take-over by a foreign bank, the acquired bank does not increase its FX lending any faster than a bank which remains in domestic hands. |
| JEL: | O1 P2 P5 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebd:wpaper:122&r=fmk |
| By: | Carole Gresse (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - CNRS : UMR7088 - Université Paris Dauphine - Paris IX) |
| Abstract: | Based on two samples of non-financial large caps from the FTSE 100 and the CAC 40 and a third sample of non-financial mid caps from the SBF 120, this study looks at four monthly periods to compare market liquidity before and after the entry into effect of MiFID. Over the last monthly period, i.e. September 2009, order-flow fragmentation reached substantial levels in all three samples, although it was less pronounced among the mid caps of the SBF 120. Between 20% and 25% of total volumes on the FTSE 100 and the CAC 40 were traded OTC or internalised. As regards non-internalised regulated order flow, 25% to 30% of volumes in large caps were executed on MTFs outside the primary market, compared with around 17% for mid caps of the SBF 120. Despite the high levels of fragmentation, primary markets continue to dominate the European securities trading landscape, with market share of approximately 70% for regulated volumes in large caps and 80% for mid caps. The primary markets also have good relative price competitiveness. The rise in competition between trading venues has been accompanied by a significant decline in price spreads. This reduction in implicit transaction costs is relatively proportionate to the strength of competition, because it is more marked among large caps than among mid caps. The decline has take place at the cost of reduced depth at best limits. Several points temper this conclusion, however. First, trading volumes fell sharply between October 2007 and September 2009. Next, competition between trading systems combined with the rise of algorithmic trading have resulted in orders being more broken up, such that average transaction size has fallen even more steeply than depth at best limits. The frequency of trading and quote changes has also increased greatly. In such an environment, a static measurement of depth has drawbacks, because the frequency with which the depth is renewed is not captured. Also, the available depth appears to be divided between the most active platforms. Ultimately, increased competition has resulted in a decline in implicit transaction costs. The investors best placed to take advantage are logically those that operate on several platforms through smart order routing systems. |
| Keywords: | market fragmentation, MiFID, stock market liquidity |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00559919&r=fmk |
| By: | Ian Appel and Caroline Fohlin |
| Abstract: | We find that the bans on covered short sales, implemented in several countries during the financial crisis of 2008-09 improved market liquidity or at least had a neutral impact; a result we argue could be expected in theory, given a simple variation on the Diamond-Verrechia (1987) model. The result holds for daily data over an extended period as well as for intraday data over various time spans. In contrast to other recent studies, we use American Depository Receipts as the controls in a difference-in-difference analysis encompassing all banned non-U.S. shares with corresponding depository receipts listed in the United States. Furthermore, we find that bans on covered short sales generally succeeded in lowering volatility. Banning short selling is not good policy in normal times, but our findings indicate that such bans might prove useful in (temporarily) stemming liquidity loss during crises. |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jhu:papers:574&r=fmk |
| By: | Greg Duffee |
| Abstract: | No-arbitrage term structure models impose cross-sectional restrictions among yields and can be used to impose dynamic restrictions on risk compensation. This paper evaluates the importance of these restrictions when using the term structure to forecast future bond yields. It concludes that no cross-sectional restrictions are helpful, because cross-sectional properties of yields are easy to infer with high precision. Dynamic restrictions are useful, but can be imposed without relying on the no-arbitrage structure. In practice, the most important dynamic restriction is that the first principal component of Treasury yields follows a random walk. A simple model built around this assumption produces out-of-sample forecasts that are more accurate than those of a variety of alternative dynamic models. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jhu:papers:576&r=fmk |
| By: | Metiu Norbert (METEOR) |
| Abstract: | This paper implements a simultaneous equations model to test for international financial contagion among developed sovereign credit markets between May 1, 2000 and September 1, 2010. Two alternative measures are proposed that identify credit crises in the tails of bond yield distributions, which are derived from Extreme Value Theory and Value-at-Risk analysis. The findings show that the large-scale fluctuations in long term sovereign bond yields observed during episodes of financial distress signal a structural shift in cross-market linkages with respect to tranquil periods. All analyzed countries are vulnerable to shift-contagion and the estimated contagion effects are robust across the different measures of credit crises. The empirical results convey the policy implication that a new sovereign debt management mechanism ought to incorporate the risk of financial contagion, as it carries adverse effects on the overall financing constraints in the economy. |
| Keywords: | monetary economics ; |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:umamet:2011004&r=fmk |
| By: | Ralph de Haas (EBRD); Neeltje van Horen (Dutch Central Bank.) |
| Abstract: | Recent developments and theoretical work on the transition economies has emphasised the importance of internal bargaining and incentives. This paper constitutes the first attempt to systematise the large and growing body of case studies of enterprise restructuring in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Russia and the Czech Republic. We begin from a framework in which the incentives and constraints on managers are crucial for the success of transforming enterprises into value maximising firms. The forms of, and the constraints on, active behaviour are examined for each enterprise across the dimensions of internal organisation, product and labour markets and investment. There is a huge variety in the quality of the evidence and in the experiences documented. Although we find widespread evidence of enterprise managers reacting to the post-reform environment, examples of deep restructuring are rare. Managers are hamstrung by weak incentives and increasing employee opposition, as well as by the uneven development of social and market infrastructure external to the enterprise. Low incentives arise from the absence of a managerial labour market, monopoly power and the large component of idiosyncratic knowledge possessed by incumbents. Opposition is based on the high costs of job loss. A characteristic feature of the transition economies is the ability of employees to veto restructuring and the opposition of labour appears likely to increase as unemployment rates and durations grow. Cases are described where the passage of restructuring measures has been facilitated by the willingness of the state to provide compensation to the ‘losers’. The examination of pre-privatisation behaviour suggests that the pace and depth of restructuring would increase after privatisation only when privatisation clearly transforms the incentives and constraints facing managers. The limited evidence on post- privatisation restructuring surveyed here suggests that foreign ownership of a former state-owned enterprise is the exception in which privatisation produces a marked change in behaviour. The role of product market power runs through the survey. Some enterprises use profits as a shield to avoid painful change, others have actively sought to build dominant positions. Aggregate data is presented which raises the possibility that the pattern of restructuring is being distorted by the uneven distribution of monopoly power across sectors. In our conclusions, we suggest ways in which future enterprise-level research could be improved to shed more light on the pattern of restructuring and to facilitate safer policy advice. From a policy perspective, we stress the complementarity between different reforms. The focus on the incentives and constraints facing enterprise managers highlights the limitations to a strategy which relies on privatisation to raise efficiency. The state must play a role in facilitating labour shedding and internal reorganisation of enterprises through providing finance for compensation, promoting the provision of social services outside the structure of enterprises and fostering the creation of new jobs. The hardening ahs promoted adjustment but over-tight budgetary policies may offset this, slowing the arte of new job creation ad heightening uncertainty about the prospects of enterprises under restructuring. |
| JEL: | O1 P2 P5 |
| Date: | 2010–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebd:wpaper:117&r=fmk |
| By: | Hao Wang; Hao Zhou; Yi Zhou |
| Abstract: | We find that firm-level variance risk premium, estimated as the difference between option-implied and expected variances, has a prominent explanatory power for credit spreads in the presence of market- and firm-level risk control variables identified in the existing literature. Such a predictability complements that of the leading state variable--leverage ratio--and strengthens significantly with lower firm credit rating, longer credit contract maturity, and model-free implied variance. We provide further evidence that: (1) variance risk premium has a cleaner systematic component and Granger-causes implied and expected variances, (2) the cross-section of firms' variance risk premia seem to price the market variance risk correctly, and (3) a structural model with stochastic volatility can reproduce the predictability pattern of variance risk premia for credit spreads. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2011-02&r=fmk |
| By: | Jakob Bosma |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the effects of imperfectly communicated information about whether a regulator initiates a bailout program for financially distressed banks. The theoretical framework allows for determining whether, and to what extent, it is optimal for a regulator to be imprecise in communicating its bank bailout strategy. Banks do not only rely on their prediction of the regulator’s action, but also on their beliefs about other banks’ predictions to infer the regulator’s strategy. Results indicate that the regulator may substitute higher capital adequacy requirements for being less precise in communicating whether to initiate a bailout program to maintain risk taking by banks. |
| Keywords: | bank bailout support; noisy communication; regulation; risk taking |
| JEL: | D82 L51 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:277&r=fmk |