New Economics Papers
on Financial Markets
Issue of 2009‒01‒31
six papers chosen by

  1. The Term Structures of Equity and Interest Rates By Martin Lettau; Jessica A. Wachter
  2. The Co-integration of European Stock Markets after the Launch of the Euro By Jose Soares da Fonseca
  3. Information Salience, Investor Sentiment, and Stock Returns: The Case of British Soccer Betting By Palomino, F.A.; Renneboog, L.D.R.; Zhang, C.
  4. A Banker’s Perspective on the Financial Crisis By Robert Amzallag; Michel Magnan; Bryan Campbell
  5. Central banks and financial crises By Sudipto Bhattacharya; Willem Buiter; Sergei Guriev
  6. Banking Stability Measures By Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto; C. A. E. Goodhart

  1. By: Martin Lettau; Jessica A. Wachter
    Abstract: This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model capable of jointly explaining the term structure of interest rates, returns on the aggregate market and the risk and return characteristics of value and growth stocks. Both the term structure of interest rates and returns on value and growth stocks convey information about how the representative investor values cash flows of different maturities. We model how the representative investor perceives risks of these cash flows by specifying a parsimonious stochastic discount factor for the economy. Shocks to dividend growth, the real interest rate, and expected inflation are priced, but shocks to the price of risk are not. Given reasonable assumptions for dividends and inflation, we show that the model can simultaneously account for the behavior of aggregate stock returns, an upward-sloping yield curve, the failure of the expectations hypothesis and the poor performance of the capital asset pricing model.
    JEL: G12 G13
    Date: 2009–01
  2. By: Jose Soares da Fonseca (University of Coimbra, Portugal)
    Abstract: This article studies the international integration of the national stock markets of sixteen European countries. The international financial market is represented by two indices: a European index and a World index. The methodology of co-integration, used in this article, is the proper econometrical solution for the treatment of non-stationary series as those used in the present research. Complementarily, co-integration offers the possibility of distinguishing the long-term and the short-term interdependence, which very important when the variables are financial market indices. The empirical tests in this research have shown that both European and non European international factors are necessary to explain the international integration of the national stock markets under analysis.
    Keywords: Co-integration, Stock markets, Euro
    JEL: F36 F37 G15
    Date: 2008–06
  3. By: Palomino, F.A.; Renneboog, L.D.R.; Zhang, C. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)
    Abstract: Soccer clubs listed on the London Stock Exchange provide a unique way of testing stock price reactions to different types of news. For each firm, two pieces of information are released on a weekly basis: experts’ expectations about game outcomes through the betting odds, and the game outcomes themselves. The stock market reacts strongly to news about game results, generating significant abnormal returns and trading volumes. We find evidence that the abnormal returns for the winning teams do not reflect rational expectations but are high due to overreactions induced by investor sentiment. This is not the case for losing teams. There is no market reaction to the release of new betting information although these betting odds are excellent predictors of the game outcomes. The discrepancy between the strong market reaction to game results and the lack of reaction to betting odds may not only be the result from overreaction to game results but also from the lack of informational content or information salience of the betting information. Therefore, we also examine whether betting information can be used to predict short-run stock returns subsequent to the games. We reach mixed results: we conclude that investors ignore some non-salient public information such as betting odds, and betting information predicts a stock price overreaction to game results which is influenced by investors’ mood (especially when the teams are strongly expected to win).
    Keywords: information salience;investor sentiment;investor attention;sports betting;soccer;football;economics of sports;market efficiency
    JEL: G12 G14
    Date: 2008
  4. By: Robert Amzallag; Michel Magnan; Bryan Campbell
    Abstract: During the last several years Robert Amzallag as Senior Fellow at CIRANO has taken an active interest in the research and transfer activities undertaken by the Finance Group. He has suggested initiatives that would be relevant to the financial industry in Montreal, particularly in derivative products and concerning practical issues in governance at the director’s level. As the former President and CEO at BNP Paribas (Canada), Mr. Amzallag is certainly well placed to offer insightful commentary on the financial crisis that has preoccupied us over the last several months.<p> Mr. Amzallag’s presentation combines a retrospective analysis of root causes of the crisis followed by some thoughts on what’s to come. As to causes, he isolates three trends that have been gathering force over several decades. These include the erosion of certain stabilizing factors, particularly in the credit market, that has lead to extreme concentrations of risk. Looking to the future, Mr. Amzallag cautiously explores the consequences of several scenarios or responses to the crisis. The first two represent the pursuit of policies reflecting established political sensibilities involving different degrees of government intervention. The third represents a more thoughtful re-appraisal of the different functions that the key players—governments, central banks, regulators and financial institutions —should pursue and should be left to pursue. <p> We have also invited CIRANO Fellow Michel Magnan, Professor of Accounting at Concordia’s John Molson School of Business to present an overview of the controversy surrounding marking to market, an issue highlighted by Mr. Amzallag as an important aspect of the crisis. Professor Michel Magnan takes up the technical but crucial issue of whether fair-value accounting [FVA] was an inadvertent messenger of the financial crisis or was an actual contributor to the crisis. The point is far from academic. <p> By way of appendices to these presentations, the Finance Group has prepared a graphic tool that permits the time-series presentation of key financial indicators against the historical background of the crisis. As well, we have prepared a primer on structured products, including synthetic CDOs, that have played a lead role in the current crisis. This presentation leads naturally to the software module developed at CIRANO that explores the risk management dimensions of these products. <P>
    Date: 2009–01–01
  5. By: Sudipto Bhattacharya; Willem Buiter; Sergei Guriev
    Abstract: The paper draws lessons from the experience of the past year for the conduct of central banks in the pursuit of macroeconomic and financial stability. Macroeconomic stability is defined as either price stability or as price stability and sustainable output or employment growth. Financial stability refers to (1) the absence of asset price bubbles, (2) the prevention or mitigation of systemically significant funding illiquidity and market illiquidity and (3) the prevention of insolvency of systemically important financial institutions. The performance of the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England is evaluated in terms of these criteria. The Fed is judged to have done worst both as regards macroeconomic stability and as regards one of the two time dimensions of financial stability: minimizing the likelihood and severity of future financial crises. As regards ‘putting out fires’ (dealing with the immediate crisis), the Bank of England gets the wooden spoon for its early failure to perform the lender of last resort and market maker of last resort roles.
    Date: 2008–09
  6. By: Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto; C. A. E. Goodhart
    Abstract: This paper defines a set of banking stability measures which take account of distress dependence among the banks in a system, thereby providing a set of tools to analyze stability from complementary perspectives by allowing the measurement of (i) common distress of the banks in a system, (ii) distress between specific banks, and (iii) distress in the system associated with a specific bank. Our approach defines the banking system as a portfolio of banks and infers the system's multivariate density (BSMD) from which the proposed measures are estimated. The BSMD embeds the banks' default inter-dependence structure that captures linear and non-linear distress dependencies among the banks in the system, and its changes at different times of the economic cycle. The BSMD is recovered using the CIMDO-approach, a new approach that in the presence of restricted data, improves density specification without explicitly imposing parametric forms that, under restricted data sets, are difficult to model. Thus, the proposed measures can be constructed from a very limited set of publicly available data and can be provided for a wide range of both developing and developed countries.
    Keywords: Financial stability , Financial risk , Banking systems , Data analysis , Economic models ,
    Date: 2009–01–12

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