Abstract: |
Financial markets look at data on aggregate investment for clues about
underlying profitability. At the same time, firms' investment depends on
expected equity prices. This generates a two-way feedback between financial
market prices and investment. In this paper we study the positive and
normative implications of this interaction during episodes of intense
technological change, when information about new investment opportunities is
highly dispersed. Because high aggregate investment is "good news" for
profitability, asset prices increase with aggregate investment. Because firms'
incentives to invest in turn increase with asset prices, an endogenous
complementarity emerges in investment decisions -- a complementarity that is
due purely to informational reasons. We show that this complementarity dampens
the impact of fundamentals (shifts in underlying profitability) and amplifies
the impact of noise (correlated errors in individual assessments of
profitability). We next show that these effects are symptoms of inefficiency:
equilibrium investment reacts too little to fundamentals and too much to
noise. We finally discuss policies that improve efficiency without requiring
any informational advantage on the government's side. |