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on Financial Development and Growth |
| By: | Agustin Benetrix (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Hayley Pallan (The World Bank); Ugo Panizza (Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper reassesses the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in emerging and developing economies. Using cross-country data, it first shows that the relationship between FDI, growth, and local conditions such as financial depth and human capital is not stable over time: complementarities documented in studies based on data from the 1970s and 1980s largely disappear in more recent decades. It then builds a new dataset on sectoral FDI covering 112 emerging and developing economies over the period 1975‐2023 and documents substantial heterogeneity in the association between FDI and sectoral growth. FDI inflows are positively associated with growth in the primary sector, show no robust relationship in the secondary sector, and are negatively associated with growth in the tertiary sector. To interpret these patterns, we examine the role of global value chains (GVCs). We find that FDI is most strongly associated with growth in country‐sectors with low GVC participation, while this relationship weakens or disappears as GVC integration increases. Moreover, the growth effects of FDI depend critically on the type of GVC integration. Backward participation amplifies the positive growth effects of FDI in the primary sector but attenuates them in the secondary sector and worsens the negative effects in tertiary sector, whereas forward participation strengthens the association between FDI and growth in manufacturing. Taken together, the results suggest that the elusive aggregate relationship between FDI and growth reflects a structural transformation in how foreign investment is embedded in global production networks: in highly fragmented value chains, FDI can expand gross activity without generating commensurate domestic value-added growth. |
| Keywords: | FDI, Economic Growth, Global Value Chains |
| JEL: | F21 F23 F14 C23 F60 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0126 |
| By: | Horacio Ortiz (CEFC - Centre d'études français sur la Chine contemporaine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article analyses how financial intermediaries explored contradictions between Chinese political, economic and social specificities and the standards of global financial practice, in a way that fostered the growth of China's share in global foreign direct investment (FDI) during the 2010s. During this period, China's share in global outbound FDI increased sharply, so that China became the second largest recipient of FDI and the third largest source of FDI worldwide. The article is based on qualitative research with financial professionals working in cross-border mergers and acquisitions and in venture capital and private equity funds during the 2010s. Drawing on the literature on financial intermediaries, FDI drivers and the political economy of China, it examines how these intermediaries transformed their investment rationales and used the malleability of standardized organizational forms to integrate understandings and interests that were often divergent or contradictory. These concern the contradiction between the priority that financial procedures give to the maximization of investment returns and market efficiency, against the central role played by the Chinese state, the Communist Party of China and state-owned enterprises. This role lies in a combination of profit-oriented discipline and policy aims concerning the transformation of the economic structure, poverty reduction, middle-class consumption, technological advancement, nation-building and geopolitical confrontations. The analysis allows us to understand financial intermediaries' capacity to create transaction opportunities in the face of contradictions and oppositions, as well as how they fostered the rise of China in global FDI without the country fulfilling the liberal hopes of financial globalization that had marked the two decades after 1990. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05408109 |
| By: | Eduardo Maqui; Márcia Silva-Pereira; Nicholas Vause |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how bond financing conditions affect economic activity in the United Kingdom, both in aggregate and across firms. At the aggregate level, we show that our proxy for bond financing conditions – the excess bond premium (EBP) – outperforms traditional business cycle indicators in predicting macroeconomic outcomes. EBP shocks have economically significant effects, with investment – especially in capitalintensive assets and industries – being more strongly affected. At the firm level, we show that highly leveraged and bond-reliant firms are particularly exposed to such shocks to market-based credit conditions, providing novel evidence on the financial accelerator. |
| JEL: | D22 D25 E22 E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202518 |
| By: | Saiz, Lorena; Kocabaş, Serkan |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how credit supply shocks impact firm-level investment across the euro area using the novel AnaCredit database. Employing the methodology developed by Amiti and Weinstein (2018), we decompose loan growth rates into four components: bank-specific, firm-specific, industry-specific, and common shocks. Our findings show that idiosyncratic bank supply shocks significantly affect firm-level investment, particularly among firms that are highly dependent on bank loans. Furthermore, these granular bank-specific shocks explain most of the aggregate loan dynamics. We also find that the effects of bank shocks vary depending on firm characteristics, such as firm size, loan portfolio composition, and reliance on external financing. These results underscore the critical role banks play in shaping investment dynamics, especially under varying economic conditions. JEL Classification: E22, E50, G21, G31 |
| Keywords: | AnaCredit, bank credit, credit supply, investment, real effects |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263173 |
| By: | Yimin Wu; Tomoo Kikuchi |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the response of stock markets relative to the banking sector to innovation by using a panel of 75 countries from 1982 to 2021. We find that innovation increases the activity, efficiency and size of stock markets relative to the banking sector, moderated by proximity to technological frontier and institutional quality. The moderating effect of institutional quality is positive for activity and efficiency but negative for size. Moreover, the moderating effect can be nonlinear depending on specific indicators. The marginal effect of innovation on the activity is persistent over many years, but the moderating effect of institutional quality gradually fades away. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.14154 |
| By: | Harold L Cole (University of Pennsylvania); Stefano Cravero (University of Pennsylvania); Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | The Second Industrial Revolution sparked a wave of new products and industrial processes, fueling an optimistic Roaring Twenties. But did excitement about technological progress contribute to an over accumulation of investment, despite a slowdown in new product development and satiated demand during the 1920s? And, was this over investment worsened by continuous process innovation? Could these factors have played a role in triggering the Great Depression? To explore these questions, a macroeconomic model that incorporates both process and product innovation is proposed. Proof-of-concept simulations are performed to assess whether these factors can help explain the Great Depression. The answer is yes. |
| Keywords: | Great Depression, Over Accumulation, Process Innovation, Product Innovation, Rational Exuberance, Roaring Twenties, Satiation, Second Industrial Revolution, Technological Progress |
| JEL: | E13 E22 E24 E32 N12 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eag:rereps:42 |
| By: | Stefan Nagel |
| Abstract: | In models with subjective beliefs, the dynamics of investor beliefs are central to explaining asset price movements. Allowing subjective beliefs to deviate from full-information rational expectations requires a model of how investors form beliefs. I review recent research that explores experience-based belief formation. The experience-based model closely resembles Bayesian updating but allows individuals to overweight data observed during their own lifetimes when forming beliefs about the parameters of the data-generating process. Because individuals of different age learn from different histories, the model predicts heterogeneity between age groups that evolves over time with the path of realized data individuals have experienced, closely mirroring the age-related variation observed in survey microdata. At the aggregate level, experience-based expectations formation can explain asset price dynamics. In the stock market, learning from experience about long-run cash flow growth generates valuation cycles and return predictability. Experience-based formation of long-term inflation expectations can explain secular changes of real interest rates. I conclude by outlining directions for future research. |
| JEL: | E70 G12 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34675 |
| By: | Kim Ristolainen (Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Finland) |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel sentiment measure derived from survey data to empirically vali date the Minsky–Kindleberger view on financial crises. Using survey data from multiple countries, we decompose beliefs into components explained by public information that are orthogonal to optimal machine beliefs, constructing a framework that isolates sentiment and its dispersion among individuals. We show that deviations from machine-optimized benchmarks arise from systematic misaggregation of public information. The sentiment measure is validated through its predictive relationships with financial markets and belief dynamics consistent with heterogeneous-beliefs asset pricing theory. We extend this senti ment measure historically for a panel of 78 countries using machine learning models trained on BERT embeddings of historical news articles (1903–2020). The backcasted sentiment shows that shocks in median sentiment predict credit booms in the non-tradable corporate sector, which prior research has linked to financial crises, providing the first historically large-scale empirical validation of the Minsky cycle. We further show that sentiment, which is a misaggregation of public information, is influenced by memory-related dynamics, as the time elapsed since major crises and the share of young-to-old people in the population strongly predict surges in optimism even when recent economic developments are controlled for. |
| Keywords: | Survey data, Sentiment, Memory, Machine Learning, Text Data, Credit growth, Financial Crisis |
| JEL: | E44 E51 G01 D84 G41 E32 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp173 |
| By: | Ali Hosseinzadeh |
| Abstract: | Speculative bubbles exhibit common statistical signatures across many financial markets, suggesting the presence of universal underlying mechanisms. We test this hypothesis in the Iranian stock market, an economy that is highly isolated, subject to capital controls, and largely inaccessible to foreign investors. Using the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, we analyze two major bubble episodes in 2020 and 2023. The estimated critical exponents beta around 0.46 and 0.20 fall within the empirical ranges documented for canonical historical bubbles such as the 1929 DJIA crash and the 2000 Nasdaq episode. The Tehran Stock Exchange displays clear LPPLS hallmarks, including faster-than-exponential price acceleration, log-periodic corrections, and stable estimates of the critical time horizon. These results indicate that endogenous herding, imitation, and positive-feedback dynamics, rather than exogenous shocks, play a dominant role even in politically and economically isolated markets. By showing that an emerging and semi-closed financial system conforms to the same dynamical patterns observed in global markets, this paper provides new empirical support for the universality of bubble dynamics. To the best of our knowledge, it also presents the first systematic LPPLS analysis of bubbles in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The findings highlight the usefulness of LPPLS-based diagnostic tools for monitoring systemic risk in emerging or restricted economies. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.12054 |
| By: | Dallari, Pietro; Gattini, Luca |
| Abstract: | This paper applies the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to assess downside risks to euro area GDP growth, and it examines its usefulness for stress testing. Supervisory stress-test scenarios are often criticized for being either too mild or implausibly severe, raising questions about calibration. This is consequential for banks' business plans as well as for systemic financial stability. We conduct a pseudo real-time evaluation of European Banking Authority (EBA) adverse scenarios published in the last decade, establishing a probabilistic benchmark against which their scenario severity can be evaluated. We find that, except for the 2021 and 2023 rounds, EBA adverse scenarios consistently lie below the 10th percentile threshold. After the pandemic shock, scenario severity and model-implied risks have moved in opposite directions, with GaR estimates pointing to declining downside risks and EBA scenarios becoming increasingly severe. However, these still fall within the models' probability distributions and therefore represent plausible-if extreme-realizations of downside risk. Supporting exercises attribute downside risks primarily to financial stress in the short-term, while medium-term horizons are shaped by term structure and housing or credit channels more. Taken together, these results suggest that GaR can serve as a transparent, data-driven complement to expert judgment in stress-test scenario design-helping to balance severity with plausibility and enhancing scenarios' credibility for financial stability assessments. |
| Keywords: | Growth-at-Risk (GaR), stress testing, scenario calibration, quantile regression, macro-financial conditions |
| JEL: | C22 C53 E32 E44 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eibwps:335012 |
| By: | Manzano Quiroga Jeremías Angel |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the domestic economic consequences of sovereign defaults by analyzing their impact on key macroeconomic variables, including GDP per capita, consumption, government expenditure, investment, exports, imports, unemployment, and inflation. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), the study constructs counterfactual scenarios for defaulting countries to estimate the effect of defaults on economic outcomes. The results indicate that sovereign defaults generally have persistent negative effects, especially on GDP per capita, investment, and trade, with the adverse impacts often starting before the default due to anticipation effects. However, some countries experienced effects that challenge standard intuition. Results for unemployment are mixed and effects on inflation are inconclusive. These findings highlight complex and heterogeneous dynamics around sovereign defaults. While SCM is valuable, anticipation effects and data limitations motivate further methodological refinements and country–specific analyses. |
| JEL: | E0 E2 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4817 |
| By: | Ferrari Minesso, Massimo; Siena, Daniele |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the international macro-financial implications of U.S. dollar-backed payment stablecoins. These digital assets create a new global safe asset channel that links private money creation and global payment needs directly to U.S. public debt. By reshaping the demand for safe assets and the geography of dollar intermediation, stablecoins transform the dynamics of global financial markets, generating new trade-offs, also for the U.S.: even if they widen the dollar’s global footprint and compress U.S. risk-free yields, they entail non-trivial macro-financial costs. Stablecoins dampen the domestic real effects of U.S. monetary policy and increase both U.S. and foreign exposure to cross-country shocks, making a more digital, dollar-centric reserve system less stable. These effects are limited at low adoption levels but rise non-linearly with stablecoin capitalization, reshaping the functioning of the international financial system. JEL Classification: G15, E42, E44, E52, F3 |
| Keywords: | financial stability, global safe asset, monetary policy, spillovers, stablecoins |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263174 |
| By: | Yihan Hong; Hengxiang Feng; Yinghan Wang; Boxuan Li |
| Abstract: | The approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF in January 2024 marked a transformative event in cryptocurrency markets, signaling increased institutional adoption and integration into traditional finance. This study examines Bitcoin's changing relationships with traditional assets, including equities, gold, and fiat currencies, following this milestone. Using rolling correlation analysis, Chow tests, and DCC-GARCH models, we found that Bitcoin's correlation with the S\&P 500 increased significantly post-ETF approval, indicating stronger alignment with equities. Its relationship with gold stabilized near zero, while its correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index remained consistently negative, reflecting its continued independence from fiat currencies. These findings offer insights into Bitcoin's evolving role in portfolios, implications for market stability, and future research opportunities on cryptocurrency integration into traditional financial systems. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.12815 |
| By: | Domínguez Juan Ignacio |
| Abstract: | Exchange controls are a common policy tool in emerging economies. This study develops a tractable model with capital accumulation to formalize their macroeconomic consequences in an environment where the government finances its deficit through domestic credit expansion while maintaining a fixed exchange rate. The analysis shows that exchange controls generate a wedge between official and parallel exchange rates, reduce output and permanent consumption, and, under certain conditions, tighter import restrictions can increase money demand and delay the collapse of the fixed rate regime. Moreover, the share of legal exports declines as the exchange rate gap widens. When import restrictions are endogenously adjusted in response to the amount of legal exports, domestic prices rise persistently over time. The main contributions are: (i) formalizing and summarizing the effects of exchange controls in a tractable model with capital accumulation and monetized deficits under a fixed exchange rate, and (ii) identifying a money-demand channel through which import restrictions can influence the timing of a first generation balance-of-payments crisis. |
| JEL: | F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4795 |
| By: | Marinelli Gaston |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how global dollar appreciations transmit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) through commodity prices and country risk. Using quarterly data for 22 EMDEs from 1999–2019, I combine the Obstfeld & Zhou (2023) dataset with country-specific commodity price indices and classify countries as commodity exporters or importers via a trade-balance rule. Global dollar appreciation shocks explain up to 16% of the forecast-error variance of commodity terms of trade (CToT) and up to 9% of EMBI spreads. A global dollar appreciation depreciates EMDE currencies, raises EMBI, depresses investment, and lowers GDP, with muted CPI effects. Stratifying by commodity status reveals sharp heterogeneity: exporters suffer larger and more persistent adverse responses, while importers seem stable. To uncover mechanisms, I implement an approach `a la Cloyne–Jord`a–Taylor (2023) to estimate indirect effects. A more favorable CToT response mitigates output and demand contractions, whereas higher commodity import prices and larger EMBI responses amplify adverse outcomes. |
| JEL: | F4 C3 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4818 |
| By: | Silvia Miranda-Agrippino; Tsvetelina Nenova; Hélène Rey |
| Abstract: | Using a novel indicator for the People's Bank of China monetary policy stance, we estimate a policy rule that accounts for the dual nature of its price stability mandate—encompassing domestic inflation and the exchange rate—and for the evolution of its operational framework. The “Ins”: The domestic transmission follows textbook patterns, with exceptions due to the active management of the renminbi and the financial account. The "Outs": International spillovers are powerful and affect commodity markets, global production and trade. The pass-through to foreign (US) prices is substantial. Financial spillovers are second-order, and mostly derivative from trade spillovers. |
| JEL: | E50 F3 F4 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34626 |
| By: | Friedheim Diego; De Marco Filippo |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how lenders’ inflation expectations shape credit allocation. Banks expecting higher inflation reallocate credit towards ex-ante leveraged firms, which benefit from a reduction in real debt burdens. To test this hypothesis, we combine individual bank macroeconomic forecasts for developed economies with syndicated loan data from 1991 to 2021. We show that banks expecting a 1 percentage point higher inflation over the next year extend loans that are 15% larger and 17 basis points cheaper to firms with high long-term leverage, relative to banks with lower inflation expectations. Importantly, the effects are not present for firms with high short-term leverage, whose real value is harder to reduce. Consistent with this pattern, firms receiving loans from banks with higher inflation expectations increase their capital expenditure relative to otherwise similar firms borrowing from banks with lower expectations. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4803 |
| By: | Ana Babus; Maryam Farboodi; Gabriela Stockler |
| Abstract: | Banks face a dual mandate of raising cheap deposits while avoiding liquidity risk. We propose a novel mechanism whereby banks use portfolio opacity to meet this objective. Specifically, banks choose opaque portfolios to secure cheap long-term funding while trading off insolvency and illiquidity. We show that while opacity lowers deposit rates, it also leaves depositors with only noisy information about the bank’s solvency, making them cautious about keeping their funds in the bank—particularly when interest rates are high. We show that opacity raises bank profits, sometimes at the cost of exposure to high probability of illiquidity. In particular, in high-rate environments, banks adopt excessive opacity to further reduce deposit rates—at the cost of more frequent early failures. |
| JEL: | D89 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34618 |
| By: | Gil Nogueira; Geraldo Cerqueiro |
| Abstract: | We show that weak judicial enforcement and credit frictions jointly govern the transmission of corporate distress through trade-credit networks. Weak judicial enforcement increases the losses associated with defaulted trade credit, while credit frictions limit trade creditors' ability to absorb those losses. We exploit variation in court congestion generated by a nationwide reform that reassigned pending bankruptcy cases across courts. Trade creditors are more likely to go bankrupt when their trade debtor's case is handled by a congested court and when they face binding credit frictions. Bank relationships mitigate these frictions and insulate trade creditors from distress transmission. A counterfactual exercise shows that moving from the least tothe most efficient courts would reduce bankruptcy propagation by 40% and increase aggregate sales by 2%. |
| JEL: | D85 G21 G32 G33 K41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202529 |
| By: | Alibhai, Salman; Breza, Emily; Kanz, Martin; Strobbe, Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the rise of fintech lending in Indonesia, using a dataset of more than 139, 000 individual credit records representative of the full spectrum of consumer loans in the country. The analysis reveals that fintech lending has become deeply embedded in Indonesia’s financial landscape, with more than 40 percent of borrowers holding at least one fintech loan at the end of the sample period. While digital lenders have expanded financial inclusion by reaching significant numbers of previously unbanked households, they remain limited in their geographical reach, primarily finance consumption, and account for only a small share of total consumer credit. Over time, a substantial share of borrowers transition from high-interest fintech loans to more affordable conventional credit. However, this expansion of access brings new challenges: default rates among borrowers who obtain their first loan from a digital lender are 5 to 7 percentage points higher than among borrowers who start with non-fintech loans, and elevated default risks persist even after borrowers graduate to lower-interest rate conventional credit. The paper concludes by assessing the effects of recent regulatory reforms --such as interest rate caps and harmonized reporting standards for digital and conventional loans-- and offers policy recommendations to maximize the benefits of digital financial inclusion while safeguarding credit market stability and financial consumer protection. |
| Date: | 2026–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11300 |
| By: | Makoza, Frank |
| Abstract: | Financial Technology (FinTech) organisations are perceived to be enablers of digital financial services in Malawi. They support efficient business transactions, secure payments instead of cash, lower transactions costs and support financial inclusion. While the phenomenon of FinTech has received attention among scholars, FinTech landscape of Malawi (e.g. supply-side) is not well documented. This paper analysed the FinTech landscape of Malawi focusing on profiling organisations, digital financial services and regulations. Using secondary data, the findings showed diversity of FinTech services e.g. mobile money, digital wallets, card-based payments, cloud banking services, microfinance and international remittance services. FinTechs operating in formal sector were regulated, while other FinTechs offering services for cryptocurrencies and crowdfunding platforms were not covered in the financial sector regulations. The study contributes towards literature on FinTechs in Malawi and highlights areas of further research. |
| Keywords: | Financial Technology, FinTechs, Supply-side, Digital financial services, Malawi |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:335108 |
| By: | Clément Wakwinga Wabenga (CURDES - Université du Burundi, République du Burundi. Centre Universitaire de Recherche pour le Développement Économique et Social (CURDES) & Faculté des Sciences Économiques et de Gestion, Université de Goma ;(UNIGOM), République Démocratique du Congo.); Préféré Burhonyi Burhashengwa (UNIGOM - Faculté des Sciences Économiques et de Gestion ; Université de Goma (UNIGOM), République Démocratique du Congo) |
| Abstract: | This study has investigated the determinants of access to digital banking services in the context of a security crisis in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo. Its primary objective has been to examine the extent to which cost perception has influenced the adoption of digital financial services within an environment marked by instability and socio-economic disparities. A mixed-methods approach has been employed, combining a quantitative survey of 400 bank clients with a logit econometric analysis, as well as qualitative interviews conducted with selected bank employees and representatives of business associations. The findings have revealed that although 89% of respondents have held a digital bank account, only 37.5% have used it regularly. Contrary to expectations, cost perception has not exerted a statistically significant effect on usage (p = 0.746). The study has further demonstrated that, despite functional limitations primarily linked to network connectivity issues, all commercial banks operating in Goma have implemented digital solutions that have supplemented traditional banking services and have ensured the continuity of essential financial services during the crisis period. However, socio-professional status, monthly income, digital literacy, and access to mobile networks have emerged as significant determinants. Additionally, the survey has highlighted a lack of fee transparency, which has contributed to user distrust. The study has concluded that financial inclusion policies in fragile contexts must be rethought by promoting digital literacy, enhancing pricing transparency, and improving connectivity infrastructure. It has contributed to a deeper understanding of digital exclusion dynamics in crisis settings and has opened the way for comparative research in other chronically unstable regions. Keywords: financial inclusion, digital banking services, cost perception, digital literacy, security crisis.JEL Classification: G21, D12, O33, I38, R28Paper Type: Empirical Research |
| Abstract: | Cette étude a exploré les déterminants de l'accessibilité aux services bancaires numériques dans un contexte de crise sécuritaire à Goma en République Démocratique du Congo. L'objectif principal était d'analyser dans quelle mesure la perception du coût influence l'adoption des services financiers numériques, dans un environnement marqué par l'instabilité et les inégalités socio-économiques. Une approche mixte a été adoptée, combinant une enquête quantitative menée auprès de 400 clients de banques avec une analyse économétrique par modèle logit, ainsi que des entretiens qualitatifs avec certains employés de banques et de représentants des corporations patronales. Les résultats ont montré que bien que 89 % des répondants disposent d'un compte bancaire numérique, seuls 37, 5 % l'utilisent régulièrement. La perception du coût, contre toute attente, n'a pas exercé d'effet significatif sur l'usage (p = 0, 746). L'étude a démontré que, malgré les limites fonctionnelles principalement liées aux problèmes de connectivité du réseau, toutes les banques commerciales opérant dans la ville de Goma ont mis en place des solutions numériques ayant suppléé aux services bancaires classiques et assuré la continuité des services essentiels aux besoins primaires pour leurs clients durant cette période de crise sécuritaire. En revanche, le statut socio-professionnel, le revenu mensuel, la compétence numérique et l'accès au réseau mobile ont constitué des facteurs déterminants. De plus, l'enquête a mis en lumière une faible transparence des frais, renforçant la méfiance des usagers. L'étude conclut à la nécessité de repenser les politiques d'inclusion financière dans les zones fragiles en favorisant la littératie numérique, la transparence tarifaire et l'amélioration des infrastructures de connectivité. Elle contribue à une meilleure compréhension des dynamiques d'exclusion numérique dans les contextes de crise, et ouvre la voie à des recherches comparatives dans d'autres zones à instabilité chronique. Mots-clés : inclusion financière, services bancaires numériques, perception du coût, compétence numérique, crise sécuritaire.JEL Classification : G21, D12, O33, I38, R28Type du papier : Recherche empirique |
| Keywords: | security crisis. JEL Classification: G21, inclusion financière services bancaires numériques perception du coût compétence numérique crise sécuritaire. JEL Classification : G21 D12 O33 I38 R28 Type du papier : Recherche empirique financial inclusion digital banking services cost perception digital literacy security crisis. JEL Classification: G21 D12 O33 I38 R28, inclusion financière, services bancaires numériques, perception du coût, R28, compétence numérique, digital literacy, cost perception, digital banking services, R28 Type du papier : Recherche empirique financial inclusion, I38, O33, D12, crise sécuritaire. JEL Classification : G21 |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05345510 |
| By: | Fabien Clive Ntonga Efoua (FSEG, CEREG - Université de Yaoudé II-Soa, CEDIMES - CEDIMES - Centre d'Etudes sur le Développement International et les Mouvements Economiques et Sociaux); Françoise Okah Efogo; Bernard Cléry Nomo Beyala; Bruno Emmanuel Ongo Nkoa |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to discuss the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the decentralized digital currencies in Africa, a region that serves as an incubator for innovations in the decentralized finance sector, but remains somewhat excluded from the field of academic research on these same issues. In addition to providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the cryptocurrency market (particularly with regard to the categories and underlying technologies), this article relies on a SWOT analysis that draws some lessons and long-term perspectives while respecting the diversity of local and international concerns. It emerges that the popularity of the BASI-coins is built on a triple illusion: that of disintermediation, that of security and that of independence: miners remain essential, and oligopolies are being reconstituted in the cryptosphere which, from this point of view, does not differ from the traditional finance. In addition, even if the macro-financial framework of African countries seems de facto to lend itself to their adoption, it should be noted that their implementation requires addressing several challenges: both in terms of infrastructure (electricity/Internet access) and technology as well as institutional. Moreover, BASI-coins could compete with (future) sovereign digital currencies (Govcoins), and their widespread adoption could destabilize the financial systems due to pressure on foreign exchange reserves. |
| Abstract: | L'objectif de cet article est d'analyser les forces, les faiblesses, les opportunités et les menaces des monnaies numériques décentralisées en Afrique, une région qui sert d'incubateur pour les innovations dans le secteur de la finance décentralisée, mais qui sur ces mêmes questions, demeure relativement en marge du champ de la recherche académique. En plus de dresser un panorama assez complet de l'état actuel du marché des cryptomonnaies (notamment en ce qui concerne les catégories et les technologies sous-jacentes), cet article s'appuie sur une analyse SWOT qui permet de dégager des enseignements et des perspectives de long terme, tout en respectant la diversité des préoccupations locales et internationales. Il en ressort que la popularité des BASI-coins s'est bâtie sur une triple illusion : celle de la désintermédiation, celle de la sécurité et celle de l'indépendance : les mineurs sont incontournables et les oligopoles se reconstituent dans la cryptosphère qui, de ce point de vue, ne diffère pas de la finance traditionnelle. En outre, même si le cadre macro-financier des pays africains semble de facto se prêter à l'adoption des cryptomonnaies et que cette dernière offre des opportunités en termes d'inclusion et d'innovation dans la sphère financière, un usage efficient des monnaies numériques nécessite de relever plusieurs défis ; tant sur les plans infrastructurel (accès à l'électricité/Internet) et technologique qu'institutionnel. Par ailleurs, les BASI-coins pourraient faire concurrence aux (futurs) monnaies numériques souveraines (Govcoins) et leur adoption généralisée pourrait déstabiliser les systèmes financiers en raison d'une pression sur les réserves de change. |
| Keywords: | Afrique, SWOT, Cryptomonnaies, BASI-coins |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05402623 |
| By: | Massimo Guidolin, Serena Ionta |
| Abstract: | We study forward-looking climate policy uncertainty through a macro-finance lens, focusing on the transmission of climate uncertainty shocks to aggregate and sectoral dynamics. Using monthly U.S. data from 2014 to 2025, we estimate a Bayesian Proxy-SVAR identified with an external instrument derived from the realized volatility of the ICE U.S. Carbon Futures Index, a market directly exposed to climate regulation. This proxy isolates the unexpected and forward-looking component of climate-policy uncertainty. We find that climate uncertainty shocks tighten financial conditions, raise market volatility and financial stress, and reduce output, prices, and stock market valuations, triggering an accommodative monetary policy response. At the sectoral level, we document heterogeneity along two complementary dimensions. A broad green–brown decomposition shows that transition risk exposed (brown) sectors experience deeper and more persistent contractions, whereas less exposed (green) sectors recover faster. We then perform a full sector-by-sector disaggregation of industrial production and valuation responses and match each sector to its EPA supply-chain emission intensity. This granular mapping reveals a systematic relationship between carbon intensity and the severity of climate uncertainty-induced contractions: higher emission industries exhibit larger and more persistent real and financial declines. Overall, forward-looking climate-policy uncertainty acts as a financial amplifier, propagating primarily through volatility and valuation channels and reinforcing the asymmetric dynamics of the low-carbon transition. |
| Keywords: | Climate Policy Uncertainty, Financial Transmission Mechanism, Bayesian ProxySVAR, Green vs Brown Sectors, Realized Volatility. |
| JEL: | E32 E44 Q54 G12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp26262 |
| By: | Grace Weishi Gu; Galina Hale; Bhavyaa Sharma; Jinhong Wu |
| Abstract: | Do banks help or hamper green transition? To answer this question, we analyze the dynamics of bank lending to firms in the US, EU, and separately Denmark in relation to the borrowers' emissions of CO2. We evaluate the allocation of bank loans across industries and within industries across firms, allowing for heterogeneity of firm emissions and changes in these emissions. To facilitate green transition, bank lending needs to flow to greener and greening firms, but not out of high-emission industries that need funding to transition to cleaner production methods. Using syndicated loan data, we find that for US borrowers, bank lending was likely hampering green transition, while in the EU bank lending is more likely to facilitate it. Zooming in on Denmark, for which we have data on the full universe of firms and banks, we find more significant credit reallocation to greener firms, especially within industries. However, the reallocation of funds to green firms is, to a large extent, a byproduct of green firms becoming bigger. We do not find any evidence consistent with banks active stewardship of green transition. |
| JEL: | F21 G21 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34681 |