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on Financial Development and Growth |
| By: | Coccia, Mario |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the political economy of growth by examining the interplay between globalization dynamics, trade performance, and wealth creation over the period 1971–2023. Dominant theories in international economics often posit that deeper globalization fosters export expansion and sustained GDP growth. However, the empirical evidence presented here challenges this linear assumption. Findings indicate that higher levels of globalization do not consistently translate into improved export capacity or rising GDP per capita. Instead, structural disruptions—geopolitical tensions, economic shocks, and protectionist trade regimes—frequently constrain anticipated benefits, revealing systemic vulnerabilities within the global economy. Building on interdisciplinary theoretical perspectives from political economy and development studies, the analysis introduces the concept of an optimal investment threshold. This threshold represents a critical level of foreign direct investment (FDI) net outflows, expressed as a percentage of GDP, beyond which the marginal gains of globalization diminish. Exceeding this point can trigger systemic decline, characterized by stagnating GDP growth and weakened trade performance, thereby challenging the sustainability of globalization-driven development models.These insights underscore the need for recalibrated strategies that integrate structural limits into policy design. By promoting inclusive growth through balanced investment flows and coordinated international regulation, the study reframes globalization as a managed process rather than an automatic engine of prosperity. This theoretical contribution advances debates on global economic governance and offers a framework for policymakers to align investment dynamics with long-term development objectives. |
| Date: | 2025–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:p5ync_v1 |
| By: | Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe Data availability and preliminary results for 2024 by Alexandra Bykova According to preliminary data, FDI inflows to the CESEE region overall declined by around 25% last year. However, five EU-CEE countries, Western Balkans and Turkey attracted more investment than a year previously. Preliminary FDI data for 2024 are available from the wiiw FDI Database as a first FDI data release this year. Final FDI data for 2024 and the breakdown by partner and by economic activity for all countries will be released in November. An increasingly bleak outlook by Olga Pindyuk In 2024, the CESEE region experienced a sharper decline in inward FDI flows than the world on average. Turkey and the Western Balkans performed better than the rest of the region in attracting FDI. However, greenfield investment project announcements point to growing pessimism among investors in most of CESEE. Austria, Germany and China appear to be losing interest in investing in the region. Forecasts of main economic indicators for Central, East and Southeast Europe for 2025-2027 |
| Keywords: | FDI inflows, FDI outflows, greenfield FDI, FDI stocks, FDI by instrument of financing |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2025-05 |
| By: | Byrne, Stephen (Central Bank of Ireland); Goodhead, Robert (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This paper decomposes the sources of capital misallocation at the country and industry level in Europe. Using a comprehensive dataset of European firms from 19 countries, we find that the majority of the observed misallocation stems from persistent firm-specific distortions, with a smaller role for adjustment costs and uncertainty. We document substantial differences in the sources of misallocation across industries. Our analysis reveals strong correlations between these permanent distortions and industry-level variation in both financial factors, and factors relating to productivity. Understanding the factors driving capital misallocation is important for policymakers seeking to address productivity constraints and stimulate growth in the long run. |
| JEL: | E0 O11 O4 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:11/rt/25 |
| By: | Mohamed Chaouch; Thanasis Stengos |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how market competition influences poverty dynamics using a functional econometric framework that captures both contemporaneous and lagged effects. Using annual data for 48 countries from 1991-2017, we estimate function-on-function regressions linking poverty headcount ratios to market concentration and other macroeconomic indicators. The results show that, based on the entire sample, stronger competition initially increased poverty during structural adjustment phases, but its adverse impact weakened after 2010 as economies adapted and efficiency gains emerged. The estimated bivariate surfaces reveal that the effect of competition on poverty often persists over multiple years (around 5 years), highlighting the importance of intertemporal transmission. Then, functional clustering based on market capitalization (MCAP) uncovers strong heterogeneity: pro-poor 5-years lagged effect of competition in low- and medium-MCAP economies, while it remains insignificant to weakly negative in high-MCAP countries. Overall, the findings underscore the value of functional data methods in uncovering evolving and lag-dependent poverty-competition linkages that static panel models fail to capture. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.13875 |
| By: | Wenli Cheng (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a stock-flow consistent model to study the effects of three types of bank credit: credit for production, credit for consumption, and credit for asset speculation.The main findings are: (1) Credit for production (the “good”) enables capital formation and the adoption of more productive technologies; (2) Credit for consumption (the “bad”) diverts some real savings from capital formation to consumption, resulting in lower total output and less individual wealth; and (3) Credit for speculation (the “ugly”) funds real wealth transfers that are unrelated to wealth creation. It can result in higher prices in the goods market, which harms all consumers including those who do not participate in asset speculation. |
| Keywords: | stock-flow-consistent model, credit creation, production loans, consumption loans, loans for asset speculation |
| JEL: | E12 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2025-20 |
| By: | Michal Skara (Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic); Ladislava Issever Grochova (Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between household debt and economic output in the context of income inequality, emphasizing the role of fiscal redistribution through personal taxes and social transfers. Based on an unbalanced panel dataset of 36 countries covering the period 1980–2023, the study employs panel local projection (LP) methods to analyze the dynamic effects of household debt on GDP growth, assessing how this effect is influenced by the degree of income redistribution achieved through the tax system and transfers. While existing research shows that household debt may initially stimulate economic activity, it constrains consumption and exacerbates downturns in the medium run, especially in economies with high inequality. The results suggest that fiscal redistribution dampens the negative effects of household debt associated with inequality, with the strongest mitigating impact observed at the seventh horizon after a debt shock, when debt-service burdens peak. The findings underline the importance of an effective system of fiscal redistribution – encompassing both personal taxes and transfers – in reducing the macroeconomic costs of household indebtedness and contributing to the debate on sustainable growth and inequality reduction. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, direct taxes, GDP growth, household debt |
| JEL: | D14 D31 E21 E62 H24 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:108_2025 |
| By: | Uzma Zia (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | Savings play an essential role in economic growth and development as it provides resources for investment and financial stability. Pakistan, like many developing economies, faces challenges in promoting a robust savings culture. This study examines key determinants of savings behaviour, including macroeconomic factors, fiscal policies, interest rates, inflation, remittances, and religious beliefs. Findings suggest that enhancing financial literacy, offering tax incentives, and ensuring economic stability can boost savings. Policies to manage inflation and improve real interest rates are vital for encouraging household savings. The study also highlights theoretical insights, such as the Harrod-Domar model and the Permanent Income Hypothesis, underscoring the link between savings, investment, and long-term growth. To enhance savings, the government should adopt both short- and long-term initiatives, such as expanding financial literacy programs and promoting investment-oriented savings schemes. Tax and duty reductions for productive industries for encouragement may lead to higher savings. Ensuring financial stability, controlling inflation, and strengthening institutions are important for building saver`s confidence. Similarly, higher real interest rates encourage savings while inflation erodes their value emphasising effective inflation management essential for to build saving culture in Pakistan. As controlling inflation remains a key policy objective of URAAN project, this study indicates that higher savings are possible with decline in inflation in Pakistan. Consequently, an increase in savings is expected as inflation decreases. Moreover, higher savings can support the government in achieving its economic growth targets. |
| Keywords: | Harrod-Domar Model, Permanent Income Hypothesis, Savers Confidence, Savings Behaviour, Savings Culture, URAAN |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2025:5 |
| By: | Adrien Auclert; Hannes Malmberg; Matthew Rognlie; Ludwig Straub |
| Abstract: | We introduce an asset supply-and-demand approach to analyze the trajectory of US aggregate wealth, real interest rates, and fiscal sustainability. Our framework uses micro-founded and easy-to-implement sufficient statistics to quantify how shifts in demographics, inequality, and other forces affect asset market equilibrium. From 1950 to the present, rapid population aging, rising income inequality, increasing foreign demand for US assets, and declining productivity growth all contributed to a surge in asset demand. Asset supply initially fell, then turned around sharply, mainly driven by increases in government debt and the value of capitalized profits. Overall, asset demand won the race, and interest rates fell. Looking ahead to 2100, population aging will continue to strongly push up asset demand, but at current tax and benefit levels, asset supply will win the race, as rising entitlement costs push up government debt even more. While rising asset demand creates space for debt to eventually reach 250% of GDP without higher interest rates, stabilizing debt at any level requires a permanent fiscal adjustment of at least 10% of GDP. |
| JEL: | E20 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34470 |
| By: | Paolo Varraso (DEF University of Rome "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a quantitative heterogeneous-bank model to study how interestrate risk transmits through the financial sector. Banks optimally choose their leverage and maturity structure in the presence of limited equity issuance, default risk, and partial deposit insurance. Long-maturity assets carry a premium because they expose banks to valuation losses when interest rates rise. To preserve their franchise value, banks with low net worth relative to risky assets take on less interest-rate risk, despite the presence of risk-shifting incentives associated with deposit insurance. Applying the model to the 2022–2023 monetary tightening, I show that a rapid increase in interest rates can generate large declines in asset prices and equity values even though banks have access to shortterm assets that provide insurance against interest-rate risk. Under the lens of the model a substantial share of the losses in 2022 was predictable, whereas the losses in 2023 were largely unexpected. A shift toward long-term assets during a period of unusually low rates amplified the initial tightening, but a rebalancing toward shorter maturities dampened the transmission of later hikes. |
| Keywords: | Interest-rate risk, heterogeneous banks, aggregate uncertainty, maturity mismatch, leverage |
| JEL: | E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–10–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:616 |
| By: | Ragnar Juelsrud; Plamen Nenov; Fabienne Schneider; Olav Syrstad |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the cross-section of equilibrium returns on safe assets using a tractable asset pricing model with a micro-founded demand for liquidity and multiple safe assets with heterogeneous transaction costs. A key feature of our model is the “value of convenience, ” which is an equilibrium object that measures the level of liquidity risk-sharing in the economy. Changes in asset supply or the transaction cost of a single safe asset affect aggregate liquidity and the returns of all assets. The model features a pecuniary externality, which investors fail to internalize when forming their portfolios and which impacts equilibrium welfare. Therefore, policies that increase the payoff on the most liquid asset improve welfare in the competitive equilibrium. We test the main predictions of our theory using a novel measure of relative (in)convenience yields in the US Treasury market. |
| Keywords: | Asset pricing; Financial markets; Debt management; Monetary policy |
| JEL: | G12 E44 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-34 |
| By: | Luis Herrera (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Mara Pirovano (EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK); Valerio Scalone (EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the Risk-to-Buffer approach for calibrating the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB), with a particular emphasis on the positive neutral (PN) CCyB rate, tailored to the euro area. The proposed methodology is applied in both a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework and a macroeconomic time series setting. It estimates the amplification of adverse shocks under varying levels of cyclical systemic risk and calibrates the CCyB to counteract these amplification effects. Using data from 2009 to 2023, the analysis suggests a positive neutral CCyB rate for the euro area ranging between 1% and 1.5%. The findings indicate that output and inflation shocks, which are not directly linked to the materialization of domestic systemic risk, and high degrees of trade openness, warrant a more prominent role of the PN CCyB in the overall CCyB calibration. The exercise to illustrate the methodology is carried out for the euro area. While national calibrations require additional exercises, this approach offers a flexible and complementary framework that can support and enhance national-level analyses. |
| Keywords: | financial stability, macroprudential policy, capital requirements, countercyclical capital buffer |
| JEL: | C32 E51 E58 G01 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2544 |
| By: | Khemraj, Tarron; Pasha, Sukrishnalall |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the interplay between fiscal policy and non-performing loans (NPLs), a topic which is not widely considered in the existing literature. Using Guyanese bank-level and quarterly data from 2009: Q4 to 2024: Q4, the paper finds an inverse relationship between the overall fiscal balance – defined as total government revenues minus total government expenditures – and NPLs (or bad loans), implying that an improvement in the fiscal balance reduces credit risk and a fiscal expansion increases the percentage of bad loans (credit risk). Expanding the industrial organization model of banking and drawing on liquidity preference theory, the paper proposes a generalized theoretical framework to explain why a fiscal contraction might decrease NPLs in a bank’s portfolio. Panel-regression estimates also reveal several auxiliary results consistent with the existing literature: oil price and an oil production dummy variable are negatively associated with NPLs, while capital adequacy and inflation are positively related to NPLs. Other macroeconomic factors, such as economic growth, real effective exchange rate, inflation, as well as bank-specific variables that capture diversification, liquidity, and efficiency, are not important determinants of NPLs, according to our estimates. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy, liquidity preference, credit risk, non-performing loans, panel regression |
| JEL: | E4 E43 E51 E62 G21 H32 |
| Date: | 2025–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126458 |
| By: | Kéa Baret; Frédérique Bec; Marion Cochard |
| Abstract: | We propose a simple, simulation based framework for stochastic debt sustainability analysis. Estimating a parsimonious vector autoregression (frequentist and Bayesian) on quarterly French data (1990:Q1–2023:Q4) for the debt's key drivers, we generate predictive fan charts and probability statements for debt to GDP outcomes. Median VAR projections are close to a hypothetical deterministic baseline derived from the deterministic debt sustainability analysis framework. Assuming this illustrative central scenario, historical relationships estimated by our VAR models imply a corresponding confidence band around the debt trajectory. The BVAR yields slightly wider cones and lower tail probabilities than the frequentist VAR, with cone widths between those reported by the European Commission and the ECB. Our analysis, which does not reflect the most recent developments in public finance, suggests that an ambitious fiscal consolidation effort would be required to materially enhance the prospects of stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio over the medium term. |
| Keywords: | Debt Sustainability, Stochastic Analysis, VAR Model, Bayesian Forecasting, Density Forecasts |
| JEL: | C3 E6 H6 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1019 |
| By: | Emmanuel Caiazzo (University of Naples Parthenope.); Alberto Zazzaro (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF and MoFiR.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we model a novel trade-off between price stability and financial stability in central banking. This trade-off arises from the interaction between the monetary policy interest rate, the central bank rescue interventions, and the degree of bank illiquidity. We characterize and compare the equilibrium outcomes, in terms of monetary policy, rescue policy, and bank investment decisions, that arise under a strict inflation-targeting mandate with those that instead emerge under a dual mandate, in which the central bank is required to account for both the costs of inflation and the costs associated with financial instability. Our analysis suggests that an inflation-targeting mandate may be advisable when the economy is subject to frequent and severe inflationary shocks that would require substantial policy rate adjustments, or when liquidity risks in the banking system are neither too high nor too low. Otherwise, a mandate that explicitly requires the central bank to take financial stability into account, even at the cost of relaxing strict inflation control, may be preferable. |
| Keywords: | Central banking; Inflation targeting; Financial stability; Rescue policies |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:767 |
| By: | Mrs. Marina Conesa Martinez; Elizabeth Kasekende; Ms. Nan Li; Adam Mugume; Samuel Musoke; Cedric I Okou; Mr. Andrea F Presbitero |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in developing countries using loan-level data from Uganda’s credit registry. We analyze more than 632, 000 household loans issued by all commercial banks between 2017 and 2023, a period marked by significant policy rate fluctuations. We find that household credit, which accounts for over 50 percent of new loan accounts, responds to monetary policy: rate hikes are followed by higher lending rates and reduced loan size and maturity. Controlling for credit demand with time-varying borrower-group fixed effects, we find stronger transmission among banks with lower liquidity and capital, and those holding more government securities. The effects are more pronounced for fixed-rate loans than for floating-rate loans. In general, our results support the presence of a bank lending channel in Uganda, similar to what is observed in more advanced economies. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy Transmission; Credit Registry; Bank Lending Channel; Bank Credit; Developing Countries |
| Date: | 2025–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/242 |
| By: | Wenli Cheng (Department of Economics Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the classical Ricardian model from a barter system to a monetary framework which emphasizes the pivotal role of the banking system in facilitating production and exchange. It studies international trade under three different monetary systems: (1) the Euro system, where a single currency facilitates both domestic and international trade; (2) the Bancor system, which relies on a supranational currency for trade between nations; and (3) the Dollar system, where one country’s national currency serves as the international media of exchange. The model preserves the Ricardian insight that specialization based on comparative advantage enhances global wealth, and identifies distinct features arising from different monetary systems. It shows that neither the Euro nor the Bancor system inherently generates trade imbalances. In contrast, the Dollar system imposes an asymmetric demand for the national currency used to conduct global trade. Since the currency demanded must be earned through net exports, trade imbalances are an intrinsic feature of the Dollar system. |
| Keywords: | : Ricardian model, the Euro sy |
| JEL: | F10 F33 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2025-19 |
| By: | Nicolás Cachanosky; Emilio Ocampo; Karla Hernández; John Ramseur |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact on income per capita of dollarization in Ecuador using synthetic control analysis (SCA). The results support the hypothesis that dollarization can have a positive impact on economic growth. Such conclusion is very relevant for countries with high, persistent and volatile inflation considering dollarization as a currency regime. |
| Keywords: | Ecuador, dollarization, synthetic control analysis |
| JEL: | E42 E50 O43 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:877 |
| By: | Serkan Arslanalp; Barry Eichengreen; Chima Simpson-Bell |
| Abstract: | We document some underappreciated aspects of the recent evolution of the international reserve system. These include the growing share of gold in global central bank reserves, the continuing emergence of nontraditional reserve currencies, and the stalling share of renminbi in reserves. These trends are consistent with our findings in our earlier papers. In addition we look to the future, pondering the potential implications of dollar-linked stablecoins, the expansion of the BRICS grouping of countries and their de- dollarization plans, the development of blockchain-based platforms such as Project mBridge for the direct exchange of central bank digital currencies, and questions about the dollar’s safe-haven status. |
| JEL: | F0 F33 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34478 |
| By: | Ngunza Maniata, Kevin |
| Abstract: | Financial inclusion has become a cornerstone of development policy, yet progress across low-income and fragile states remains uneven. This paper examines the evolution of financial inclusion in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) using recent data from the World Bank’s Global Findex 2025 and the GSMA’s 2025 Mobile Money Report. Despite global account ownership reaching 79 percent of adults, fewer than 40 percent of Congolese adults hold a formal financial account. The study situates the DRC within an institutional economics framework and highlights structural constraints including informality, weak trust in financial institutions, limited infrastructure, and low financial literacy. The analysis finds that while mobile money is expanding access, its impact depends on improvements in digital infrastructure, governance, and consumer protection. The paper concludes that inclusive finance in the DRC requires not only technological diffusion but also the rebuilding of institutional credibility and human capital. |
| Keywords: | Financial inclusion; Digital finance; Mobile money; Democratic Republic of the Congo; Institutional trust; Inclusive growth |
| JEL: | G21 O16 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126774 |
| By: | Markus Brunnermeier; Jonathan Payne |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how digital payment ledgers operated by BigTech platforms and central banks can expand uncollateralized credit. However, policymakers face a trilemma-no system can simultaneously achieve efficient credit enforcement, limit rent extraction, and preserve user privacy. Monopolistic platforms enforce repayment but compromise privacy and extract rents; public or privacy-respecting ledgers protect users but weaken enforcement; platform co-opetition or programmable public ledgers balance enforcement and rents, but only by reducing privacy. |
| Keywords: | ledgers, platform money, CBDC, currency competition, private currencies, industrial organisation of payments, platforms, big tech, trilemma |
| JEL: | E42 E51 G23 L51 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1306 |
| By: | Rashad Ahmed; James A. Clouse; Fabio Natalucci; Alessandro Rebucci; Geyue Sun |
| Abstract: | The GENIUS Act, recently signed into law, establishes a dual federal and state regulatory framework for stablecoins, effectively segmenting the USD stablecoin market into GENIUS-compliant stablecoins and those that are not. This paper discusses the use cases and potential benefits of stablecoins in terms of payment system efficiency and costs, as well as their substitutability with money market mutual funds and bank deposits. It then analyzes the financial stability risks associated with both GENIUS-compliant and unregulated stablecoins using empirical analysis and historical case studies. It concludes by discussing the economic implications of the emergence of a large dollar stablecoin ecosystem. The discussion is supported by a new survey of expert opinions canvassed through Large Language Model (LLM) analysis of all U.S. podcast episodes on stablecoins from January 20 to July 17, 2025. |
| JEL: | E42 F33 G21 G23 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34475 |
| By: | Catalin Dumitrescu |
| Abstract: | This study explores the potential impact of introducing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on financial stability in an emerging dual-currency economy (Romania), where the domestic currency (RON) coexists with the euro. It develops an integrated analytical framework combining econometrics, machine learning, and behavioural modelling. CBDC adoption probabilities are estimated using XGBoost and logistic regression models trained on behavioural and macro-financial indicators rather than survey data. Liquidity stress simulations assess how banks would respond to deposit withdrawals resulting from CBDC adoption, while VAR, MSVAR, and SVAR models capture the macro-financial transmission of liquidity shocks into credit contraction and changes in monetary conditions. The findings indicate that CBDC uptake (co-circulating Digital RON and Digital EUR) would be moderate at issuance, amounting to around EUR 1 billion, primarily driven by digital readiness and trust in the central bank. The study concludes that a non-remunerated, capped CBDC, designed primarily as a means of payment rather than a store of value, can be introduced without compromising financial stability. In dual currency economies, differentiated holding limits for domestic and foreign digital currencies (e.g., Digital RON versus Digital Euro) are crucial to prevent uncontrolled euroisation and preserve monetary sovereignty. A prudent design with moderate caps, non remuneration, and macroprudential coordination can transform CBDC into a digital liquidity buffer and a complementary monetary policy instrument that enhances resilience and inclusion rather than destabilising the financial system. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.13384 |
| By: | Leonardo Gambacorta; Nico Lauridsen; Samir Kiuhan-Vásquez; Jermy Prenio |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the institutional drivers of adopting supervisory technology (suptech) by financial authorities worldwide. Using survey data from 112 financial authorities across 97 countries from the State of SupTech Report, we analyse how organisational characteristics and strategic frameworks shape the adoption of suptech initiatives. The analysis employs a two-stage hurdle model to track adoption from proof of concept to prototype, and finally to full deployment. We find that authorities with institution-wide strategies for digital transformation, data governance, and suptech deployment use, on average, about 20 additional applications and face fewer design and implementation challenges. Furthermore, while an authority's size and institutional mandate are significant factors in initiating advanced projects, the establishment of a dedicated suptech unit is the most critical factor in increasing the number of deployed applications. Finally, we find that public cloud adoption is associated with a higher probability of implementing AI tools, while reliance on in-house development is strongly associated with early-stage AI experimentation. |
| Keywords: | suptech, financial supervision, technology adoption, financial authorities |
| JEL: | G28 O33 C25 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1309 |