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on Financial Development and Growth |
| By: | Krystian Bua; Giovanni Dosi; Maria Enrica Virgillito |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the finance-growth nexus in historical perspective. We employ a panel data model with interactive fixed effects and time-varying coefficients for a sample of advanced economies since the late 19th century. The model considers flexible specifications of heterogeneity and accounts for global common shocks that have likely shaped the finance-growth nexus over time. We present three main sets of results. First, our empirical analysis shows that the relationship between finance and growth is time-varying. Using our benchmark model, we estimate the time-varying slope coefficient of financial development and show that the finance-growth nexus has secularly evolved, thus challenging the mainstream assumption of a uniform association over time. Second, by accounting for global common shocks and their heterogeneous impact, we challenge the dominant narrative suggesting a consistently positive contemporaneous relationship between financial development and economic growth. Third, differences emerge when we distinguish between Schumpeterian finance (bank credit growth) and a more speculative type of finance (stock market growth). While both exhibit time-varying behaviors, the empirical evidence points to a substantially stronger and positive association between bank credit growth and economic growth, as opposed to stock markets, which tend to display a weaker or even negative relationship. Our results remain robust when we account for a range of alternative specifications and potential sources of variation. |
| Keywords: | Finance-growth nexus, Financial development, Economic growth, Semiparametric methods, Time-varying estimates, Long-panel |
| Date: | 2025–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2025/24 |
| By: | Li, Xiang; Ongena, Steven |
| Abstract: | We investigate how global banks' macroeconomic expectations for borrower countries influence their credit supply. Utilizing granular data on varying expectations among banks lending to the same firm at the same time, combined with an instrumental variable approach, we find that more optimistic GDP growth expectations for a borrower country are strongly linked to increased credit supply. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in a lender's GDP growth expectation for the borrower's country corresponds to an increase of 8.46 percentage points in the loan share, equivalent to approximately 0.75 standard deviations of the loan share and $75.35 million in loan amount. In contrast, global banks' short-term inflation expectations do not show a significant impact on their credit supply. |
| Keywords: | asymmetric information, credit supply, expectation, global banks |
| JEL: | E32 F34 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:319911 |
| By: | Camila Gutierrez (International Monetary Fund); Javier Turen (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile); Alejandro Vicondoa (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile) |
| Abstract: | We study how Chinese macroeconomic surprises affect global financial markets. Exploiting forecast errors around key data releases and a 60-minute window around therelease, we show that positive industrial production (IP) surprises lead to immediate increases in Chinese and Asia-Pacific stock returns, global long-term yields, andcommodity prices highly demanded by China. A complementary identification strategy, which builds on different time-zones, confirms positive spillovers to international equity markets, with stronger effects in countries more exposed to Chinese trade. Our results highlight the role of both Hedging Premia and Growth Expectations in driving asset price comovement. The findings support China’s growing influence in global markets and position it as a driver of the Global Financial Cycle. |
| Keywords: | Spillovers, Global Financial Cycle, China, High-frequency |
| JEL: | E44 F21 F30 F40 G15 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:366 |
| By: | Ricardo J. Caballero; Tomás E. Caravello; Alp Simsek |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy transmits through broad financial conditions—interest rates, asset prices, credit spreads and exchange rates—rather than through the policy rate alone. Yet current frameworks remain anchored around r*, the neutral interest rate. We introduce FCI*, the neutral level of financial conditions that closes expected output gaps, within a framework where financial conditions and macroeconomic shocks drive economic activity with inertia. Conceptually, FCI* reflects macroeconomic developments rather than financial market valuations, making it more stable than r*, which responds to both macroeconomic and financial factors. We estimate FCI* using a two-equation model along the lines of Laubach and Williams (2003) with 1990-2024 data. Our empirical estimates reveal three findings. First, estimated FCI* remained stable after the 2008 crisis while r* declined persistently due to asset price declines. Second, since the observed FCI reflects financial market shocks, large FCI gaps emerge especially during recessions. Third, at times of rapid monetary policy changes, FCI gaps more accurately reflect the effective policy stance because FCI is driven by forward-looking markets; for example, FCI gaps correctly identified the 2022 tightening when interest rate measures still suggested accommodation. |
| JEL: | C32 E43 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33952 |
| By: | Mr. Johannes Wiegand |
| Abstract: | The Gründerkrise of the 1870s marks Germany’s first major experience with financial boom and bust. The assessment of its real impact has, however, been hampered by the non-availability of comprehensive and reliable national accounts data for the 19th century. This short paper seeks to overcome such difficulties by combining common factor analysis as proposed by Sarferaz and Uebele (2009) with financial filtering a la Borio et al. (2013) and Berger et al. (2015). The results confirm that the Gründerkrise was by far modern Germany’s worst peacetime economic crisis prior to the Great Depression in the late 1920s. Financial and monetary forces amplified the boom of 1871-73, deepened the downturn in 1874-79, and acted as a drag on the recovery until well into the 1880s. The pattern resembles modern ‘balance sheet recessions’, i.e., protracted economic weakness in the aftermath of financial crises. |
| Keywords: | Gründerboom; Gründerkrise; German economic history; financial crisis; balance sheet recession; factor analysis; financial filter |
| Date: | 2025–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/136 |
| By: | Huiyu Li; Chen Lian; Yueran Ma; Emily Martell |
| Abstract: | We document new facts that link firms’ markups to borrowing constraints: (1) less constrained firms within an industry have higher markups, especially in industries where assets are difficult to borrow against and firms rely more on earnings to borrow; (2) markup dispersion is also higher in industries where firms rely more on earnings to borrow. We explain these relationships using a standard Kimball demand model augmented with borrowing against assets and earnings. The key mechanism is a two-way feedback between markups and borrowing constraints. First, less constrained firms charge higher markups, as looser constraints allow them to attain larger market shares. Second, higher markups relax borrowing constraints when firms rely on earnings to borrow, as those with higher markups have higher earnings. This two-way feedback lowers TFP losses from markup dispersion, particularly when firms rely on earnings to borrow. |
| JEL: | E22 E23 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33960 |
| By: | Ally Manengu Manengu (UNIKIN - Département des Sciences économiques, Université de Kinshasa) |
| Abstract: | This study contributes to the debate on the influence of institutional variables on macroeconomic variables. Theoretical and empirical studies show that the relationship between these variables is still controversial. The aim of this work is to empirically verify the direct and interactive effects of public spending and governance on economic growth in the DRC over a period from 1980 to 2023. To do this, we used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The main findings are as follows: i) public spending negatively affects economic growth in the short term; a 1% increase in public spending reduces economic growth by 0. 0005%, and in the long term, their effect is positive and statistically significant; ii) in the short term, governance has a positive and statistically significant effect on growth, but in the long term this effect is negative and insignificant; iii) the interaction effect between public spending and poor governance is negative and statistically significant, both in the short term and in the long term, resulting in a contraction of economic activity. Hence the need to maintain good governance. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude contribue au débat sur l'influence des variables institutionnelles sur les variables macroéconomiques. Des études théoriques et empiriques montrent que la relation entre ces variables est encore controversée. L'enjeu de ce travail est de vérifier empiriquement, sur le cas de la RDC sur une période allant de 1980 à 2023, les effets directs et d'interaction des dépenses publiques et de la gouvernance sur la croissance économique. Pour ce faire, nous avons utilisé le modèle Autorégressif à retard échelonné (ou ARDL : Autoregressive Distributed Lag). Les principales conclusions sont les suivantes : i) les dépenses publiques affectent négativement la croissance économique à court terme ; un accroissement de dépenses publiques de 1% diminue la croissance économique de 0.0005%, et à long terme, leur effet est positif et statistiquement significatif ; ii) à court terme, la gouvernance a un effet positif et statistiquement significatif sur la croissance, mais à long terme cet effet est négatif et non significatif ; iii) l'effet d'interaction entre les dépenses publiques et la mauvaise qualité de gouvernance est négatif et statistiquement significatif, tant à court terme qu'à long terme, ayant pour conséquence la contraction de l'activité économique. D'où la nécessité de maintenir une bonne gouvernance. |
| Keywords: | O47, O49 Public expenditure, governance, economic growth, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), Dépenses publiques gouvernance Croissance économique Modèle Autorégressif à retard échelonné (ARDL) RDC C32 K0 E12 O47 O49 Public expenditure governance economic growth Autoregressive Staggered Delay Model (ARDL) DRC Code-JEL : C32 K0 E12 O47 O49, Dépenses publiques, gouvernance, Croissance économique, Modèle Autorégressif à retard échelonné (ARDL), RDC C32, K0, E12, DRC Code-JEL : C32 |
| Date: | 2025–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05058391 |
| By: | Bambe, Bao-We-Wal; Ouedraogo, Adama |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of public expenditure efficiency on FDI inflows, using data on a panel of 100 developing countries from 1990 to 2017. We find robust evidence that improvements in public expenditure efficiency significantly increase FDI inflows. This effect is complementary to institutional quality, per capita income and binding fiscal frameworks such as fiscal rules. Our findings highlight that, in addition to promoting the sustainability of public finances, the efficient use of public resources can exert significant positive spillover effects on the attractiveness of developing countries to foreign investors. |
| Keywords: | Public expenditure efficiency, Foreign direct investment, Developing countries |
| JEL: | E6 F21 H6 O11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:319874 |
| By: | Désiré Avom (CEREG, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Yaoundé 2 SOA); Fabien Clive Ntonga Efoua (CEREG, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Yaoundé 2 SOA, CEDIMES - CEDIMES - Centre d'Etudes sur le Développement International et les Mouvements Economiques et Sociaux); Etienne Inédit Blaise Tsomb Tsomb |
| Abstract: | This paper simulates some macro-financial shocks (increase in non-performing loans, high volatility of profits from the exploitation of natural resources, severe recession, explosion of the public debt and price instability) on a financial soundness indicator of which data are provided by the Bretton Woods institutions. To achieve this, we estimate a panel-SVAR model using the Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) method. Our results show that: (i) due to the weight of Cameroon in the sub-regional economy, the CEMAC banking system is actually resilient to deteriorating macro-financial conditions; (ii) its weak financial development prevents the spread of financial instability in the sub-region and (iii) the excess in liquidity which has been observed there for several years constitutes more a "safety cushion" than a performance indicator for the banking system. From these results, we formulate some economic policy recommendations, particularly with regard to the diversification of economies, the reduction in the CEMAC countries propensity to resort to debt, as well as cleaning up the investment in the sub region. We also suggest some research perspectives with a view to deepen the reflection. |
| Abstract: | Nous simulons dans cet article, l'impact des chocs macro-financiers (hausse des créances douteuses, forte volatilité des bénéfices tirés de l'exploitation des ressources naturelles, sévère récession économique, explosion de la dette publique et instabilité des prix) sur un indicateur de solidité/fragilité financière (le ratio : réserves liquides/actif bancaire) dans la CEMAC. La stratégie empirique s'appuie sur un modèle vectoriel autorégressif stationnarisé sur des données de panel et estimé à l'aide de la méthode des moindres carrés avec variables indicatrices (LSDV). Les résultats permettent de conclure que, dans son état actuel : (i) en raison du poids du Cameroun dans l'économie de la sous-région, le système bancaire de la CEMAC est globalement résilient face à une détérioration des conditions macrofinancières ; (ii) le faible développement financier empêche la propagation de l'instabilité financière dans la sous-région et (iii) la surliquidité qui y est observée depuis plusieurs années constitue davantage un « coussin de sécurité » qu'un indicateur de dynamisme et de performance. Partant de ces résultats, nous formulons des recommandations de politique économique, notamment en ce qui concerne la diversification des économies, une réduction de la propension des Etats à recourir à l'endettement, ainsi que l'assainissement du climat des investissements dans la sous-région. Nous suggérons également quelques perspectives de recherche en vue d'approfondir la réflexion sur cette problématique. |
| Keywords: | Macro-prudential tests, Overliquidity paradox, Panel-SVAR, LSDV, CEMAC, Tests macro-prudentiels, Paradoxe de la surliquidité, panel-SVAR |
| Date: | 2025–03–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05057312 |
| By: | Jihene Arfaoui; Harald Uhlig |
| Abstract: | Inspired by the Silicon Valley Bank run and building on Diamond- Dybvig (1993), we develop a model in which asset price fluctuations can trigger bank runs. Liquidation amounts to selling assets at their market price. Depositors can buy and hold the assets after paying an idiosyncratic cost. We characterize the equilibria. We introduce a withdrawal pressure function to distinguish between fundamental runs, driven by market price declines, and self-enforcing runs triggered by depositor panic. Deposit insurance can prevent self-enforcing runs but incurs losses during fundamental runs. Regulatory measures ensuring price resilience reduce run risks, but at the expense of depositor welfare. |
| JEL: | E43 E44 G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33955 |
| By: | Hernando Kaminsky, Pablo Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of government issuance on firm issuance during banking crises using transaction-level bond and loan data from 66 countries between 1991 and 2017. Governments rarely issue loans, preferring to issue in bond markets. In contrast, firms receive most of their financing from banks. During banking crises, as the supply of domestic loans decreases, firms switch to issuing bonds in domestic markets. The paper uses a novel instrument based on maturing debt to overcome the potential endogeneity of government issuance. The findings show that firms must compete with the government for funds in the domestic bond market and are crowded out from this market as a result. This happens not only in developing countries, but in advanced countries as well. The paper also shows that firms with the ability to tap international debt markets switch to these markets when crowding out occurs in domestic bond markets. Lastly, the paper shows that more developed domestic bond markets mitigate, but do not eliminate, the degree to which crowding out occurs. |
| Date: | 2025–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11145 |
| By: | Venkat Hariharan Asha (Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance); Ojha, Ajay (Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance); Chakraborty, Lekha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Using the high frequency data, the paper analyses the link between public investment and the private corporate investment in India for the post pandemic period. The results of ARDL models reinforced that there is no crowding out effects in India. The monetary variables including cost of credit - both long term and the short-term rates of interest - have been as significant in determining private corporate investment in the medium and long terms, which has crucial policy implications. The output gap uncertainties due to the global economic headwinds and geopolitical risks, cause lags in the responsiveness of private corporate investment to public investment. |
| Keywords: | Public Investment ; Infrastructure ; Private Corporate Investment ; Crowding -in effects ; Fiscal policy ; Public Sector |
| JEL: | E62 C32 H6 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:25/428 |
| By: | Davide Furceri; Carlos Goncalves; Hongchi Li |
| Abstract: | We present new evidence on the impact of fiscal variables on long-term interest rates and term premia in the United States. To alleviate endogeneity problems, we follow the seminal methodology by Laubach (2009) and resort to long-term projections of interest rates and fiscal variables. After incorporating an additional 20 years of data into our sample, the estimated effects of debt and deficits on interest rates show little change from Laubach’s findings. However, we show that the link between longterm rates and fiscal variables is not stable over time. It was close to zero during the years of relative fiscal prudence around the turn of the century and it has been increasing since fiscal positions have started to deteriorate markedly. |
| Keywords: | Debt; Deficit; Interest Rate; Term Premia |
| Date: | 2025–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/142 |
| By: | De Haas, Ralph; Popov, Alexander; Mamonov, Mikhail; Shala, Iliriana |
| Abstract: | How do violent conflicts shape cross-border lending? Using data on syndicated loans by 14, 021 creditors to firms in 179 countries (1989–2020), we document a dual effect: foreign banks reduce overall lending relative to domestic banks but significantly increase financing to military and dual-use sectors during conflicts. This reallocation is stronger among lenders less specialized in the conflict country, more specialized in military lending, and domiciled in politically non-aligned nations. Effects are geographically contained and temporally limited, dissipating post-conflict. Our findings reveal how global banks strategically redirect credit toward military sectors during armed conflicts, despite reducing overall country exposure. JEL Classification: D74, F34, F40, G15, G21 |
| Keywords: | bank specialization, cross-border lending, geopolitical risk, syndicated loans, violent conflict |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253073 |
| By: | Axel Dreher; Jingke Pan; Christina Schneider |
| Abstract: | Elections in fragile democracies are not merely contests over policy but battles for control over state resources, including foreign aid. Aid provides local governments with substantial discretionary funds, creating strong incentives for rent-seeking political actors to capture political office. To win elections, political actors, both in government and opposition, try to reduce electoral competition through targeted political violence, especially in weakly institutionalized settings, where the economic stakes from gaining (or losing) office are higher and the potential costs of using targeted violence are limited. We empirically test this argument using novel geo-located data on aid disbursements from 18 European donors and the United States, covering the period from 1990 to 2020. Applying an instrumental variables (IV) approach, we find that foreign aid is associated with higher levels of targeted political violence against local authorities and politicians, in particular during elections and in contexts with weak institutions and strong informal politics. These findings highlight the unintended consequences of foreign aid, showing how it can lead to targeted political violence by increasing the stakes of political competition. |
| Keywords: | foreign aid, targeted political violence, elections |
| JEL: | F35 F51 D74 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11970 |
| By: | Ms. Alina Carare; Juan P Celis; Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov; Yasumasa Morito |
| Abstract: | Growing remittance flows to emerging and developing economies may lead to real exchange rate appreciation and weaken their competitiveness. While the empirical literature finds mixed results about the relevance of this relationship, it does not delve into understanding the interplay of two crucial elements for policymakers—the exchange rate regime and the structure of the economy. Filling this gap in the literature, our paper examines how exchange rate regimes and the structure of the economy affect the impact of remittance flows on the real effective exchange rate (REER). Using data from a large sample of economies over 2008-21, we arrive at three key findings. First, REER overvaluation correlates positively with remittance flows under flexible exchange rate regimes. Once controlling for potential endogeneity in a dynamic panel and other variables determining exchange rate behavior, we find that countries with fixed exchange rate regimes also experience appreciation, albeit smaller and slower relative to countries under flexible regimes. Second, we find relatively larger REER appreciation effects for countries that have import-to-GDP ratios lower than the world median, and countries with remittances-to-GDP ratios higher than the world median. Third, for countries that receive relatively high remittances and import relatively less, the REER appreciates after a remittance shock, regardless of the exchange rate regime. The results are robust to alternative classifications, data sources, specifications and sample size. |
| Keywords: | Remittance; Real Exchange Rates; Dutch disease |
| Date: | 2025–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/122 |
| By: | Marco Reuter |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel methodology—leveraging a combination of AI and machine learning to estimate the geographic distribution of international stablecoin flows, overcoming the “anonymity” of crypto assets. Analyzing 2024 stablecoin transactions totaling $2 trillion, our findings show: (i) stablecoin flows are highest in North America ($633bn) and in Asia and Pacific ($519bn). (ii) Relative to GDP, they are most significant in Latin America and the Caribbean (7.7%), and in Africa and the Middle East (6.7%). (iii) North America exhibits net outflows of stablecoins, with evidence suggesting these flows meet global dollar demand, increasing during periods of dollar appreciation against other currencies. Further, we show that the 2023 banking crisis significantly impeded stablecoin flows originating from North America; and finally, offer a comprehensive comparison of our data to the Chainalysis dataset. |
| Keywords: | stablecoins; capital flows; capital flight; capital flow management measures (CFMs); crypto assets; currency substitution; dollar demand |
| Date: | 2025–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/141 |
| By: | Alexander Copestake; Mr. Divya Kirti; Maria Soledad Martinez Peria; Yao Zeng |
| Abstract: | Payments technologies pose an economic dilemma: network effects can lead to a small number of dominant platforms, but efforts to increase choice can risk market fragmentation. We examine whether interoperability can help resolve this tension, using data from India’s Unified Payments Interface—the world’s largest fast payment system by volume—as well as from a major pre-existing fintech firm. When the two networks became interoperable, overall usage of digital payments rose. Consistent with a model of payment choice that we propose, this increase was driven by regions where digital payments were more fragmented across platforms ex ante. Our model implies that the unification of networks increased total usage of digital payments by more than 50% in the year after integration. |
| Keywords: | Payments; Interoperability; Networks; FinTech; UPI |
| Date: | 2025–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/126 |
| By: | Gardner, Leigh A. |
| Abstract: | A long-standing debate in Africa’s economic history is the speed with which the introduction of colonial currency changed the monetary systems in use on the continent. On the one hand, this introduction saw the gradual decline of indigenous currencies such as cowries and manilas. On the other, the persistence of such currencies suggests that a system of multiple currencies was maintained for some time after the beginning of colonial rule. This article uses new data on seasonal fluctuations in the circulation of official currencies in West Africa to argue that they were largely used for the purchase of cash crops and imports. Demand for these currencies was thus driven by their use as the medium of exchange in international trade. Such limited adoption of colonial currencies reflected both the motivations behind their introduction as well as Africans’ limited access to financial services. |
| Keywords: | colonialism; international trade; money; seasonality; West Africa |
| JEL: | F10 N17 |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128610 |
| By: | Irigoin, Alejandra |
| Abstract: | By specifying the specie on which returns were to be repaid respondentia was a ubiquitous financial instrument to carry international trade in which silver was “essential” for its continuation. Where multiple currencies existed and silver was the preferred money, imported silver species performed as foreign currency. Thus, the import of foreign coins created issues for prices, profits and exchange rates. Eighteenth century Europeans alternatively used respondentia or bills depending on the monetary context, casting a shade of doubt on the inherent efficiency of a cashless means of payment. Until the 1820s, private bills of exchange did not circulate where cash had a premium. Europeans developed means to regulate the price of foreign coins and exchange rates. Elsewhere respondentia allowed to hedge against exchange risk and propitiated arbitrage profits, giving an advantage over bills. The article documents the global scope of the instrument; it explains the exchange nature of the contract and explores the issues that respondentia came to solve. It highlights the role of monies of account Europeans used in pricing foreign currencies in international trade. |
| Keywords: | private maritime trade finance; early modern global commerce; exchange risk; monies of account |
| JEL: | N20 F31 G23 G14 |
| Date: | 2025–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128607 |
| By: | Savon Zakaria (Faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociale-Souissi, Université Mohamed V) |
| Abstract: | The rise of Islamic banks in different countries worldwide can potentially complicate the implementation of monetary policy and affect its effectiveness. The purpose of our work is to address the question of the nature of the response of Islamic banking financing to the interest rate of monetary policy. Beyond this question, we are also interested in the factors that can shape the response of Islamic banking financing to conventional monetary policy. For the period between 2013 and 2022, across a panel of 12 countries, the results of the GMM approach first revealed the absence of an Islamic banking financing channel. They also showed that conventional monetary policy loses its effect on Islamic banks in dual banking systems where these banks have systemic importance. The development of Islamic finance, in turn, contributes to shielding Islamic financing from the effects of monetary policy. |
| Abstract: | L'essor des banques islamiques dans différents pays du monde peut potentiellement compliquer la mise en oeuvre de la politique monétaire et affecter son efficacité.L'objet de notre travail est de répondre à la question de la nature de la réponse des financements bancaires islamiques au taux d'intérêt de la politique monétaire. Au-delà de cette question, on s'intéresse également aux facteurs qui peuvent façonner la réponse du financement bancaire islamique à la politique monétaire conventionnelle. Pour la période entre 2013 et 2022, sur un panel de 12 pays, les résultats de l'approche GMM ont révélé d'abord l'absence d'un canal de financement bancaire islamique. Ils ont montré également que la politique monétaire conventionnelle perd d'effet sur les banques islamiques dans les systèmes bancaires duales où celles-ci ont une importance systémique. Le développement de la finance islamique concourt, à son tour, dans la prémunition des financements islamiques des effets de la politique monétaire. |
| Keywords: | Islamic banks, Transmission, Panel, GMM, Banques islamiques, politique monétaire, transmission, panel, Monetary policy, Banques islamiques politique monétaire transmission panel GMM Islamic banks monetary policy transmission panel GMM, GMM Islamic banks, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2025–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05124702 |
| By: | Mawuli Kodjovi COUCHORO; Agbessi Augustin DOTO; Tchapo GBANDI; Blaise GNIMASSOUN |
| Abstract: | Bien que le mobile money soit largement adopté au sein des pays de la Communauté économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (CEDEAO), les preuves empiriques de son impact sur la performance des entreprises restent limitées. De plus, l’influence de l’écosystème d’innovation des pays dans cette dynamique est peu explorée. Cette étude examine l’effet du mobile money sur la productivité du travail des entreprises au prisme de l’écosystème d’innovation. En utilisant les données d’enquêtes de la Banque mondiale entre 2013 et 2017 pour neuf pays de la région, nous appliquons les méthodes des moindres carrés ordinaires (MCO), de l’appariement basé sur les scores de propension (PSM) et de l’ajustement de régression pondéré par les probabilités inverses (IPWRA). Nos résultats montrent que l’usage du mobile money améliore significativement la productivité du travail, particulièrement dans les pays à écosystème d’innovation relativement mature, tandis que l’effet est non significatif dans les pays à faible maturité. Ces résultats soulignent l’importance, pour les décideurs de la CEDEAO, de favoriser le développement des écosystèmes d’innovation à travers des investissements accrus en recherche et développement, le soutien à la production scientifique de qualité et la formation des chercheurs par le biais de collaborations internationales. |
| Keywords: | Mobile money, productivité du travail, écosystème d’innovation. |
| JEL: | G2 L25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-11 |