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on Financial Development and Growth |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on economic growth in Nigeria from 2010 to 2019. Using the ordinary least square regression methodology, the findings reveal that foreign direct investment inflows do not have a significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The result holds when different measures of economic growth and different measures of foreign direct investment inflows are employed. Meanwhile, population size, real interest rate, domestic private credit and the inflation rate are significant determinants of economic growth in Nigeria while gross capital formation is an insignificant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria. The implication of the findings is that policy makers in Nigeria should focus on other drivers of economic growth other than foreign direct investment inflows when developing policy initiatives to stimulate economic growth in Nigeria. |
| Keywords: | Nigeria, foreign direct investment, economic growth, gross capital formation, GDP, inflation, domestic private credit, population, interest rate, GDP growth |
| JEL: | F13 F18 F31 F38 O47 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122167 |
| By: | Bakari, Sayef |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal relationship between domestic investment and economic growth in Argentina over the period 1980-2022, utilizing cointegration analysis and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The empirical results indicate that domestic investment has no significant long-term effect on economic growth. However, economic growth has a positive long-term impact on domestic investment, suggesting that growth stimulates investment rather than the reverse. In the short term, a bidirectional relationship exists between domestic investment and economic growth. These findings provide important policy implications for fostering sustainable economic development in Argentina. |
| Keywords: | Domestic Investment, Economic Growth, Argentina, VECM. |
| JEL: | C32 E22 O40 O54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121799 |
| By: | Titouche Souhila (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes); Arkoub Nabila (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes) |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy in Algeria aims to control money supply to stimulate economic growth. This study examines the role of monetary policy tools in achieving economic growth from 1990 to 2020, focusing on the impact of Law 90-10. The findings suggest that monetary policy has had limited success in boosting growth due to the economy's heavy dependence on oil revenue for financing development projects. Despite efforts in implementing reforms and developmental schemes, desired growth rates have not been achieved. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy economic growth money supply code of money and credit JEL Classification Codes: E52 E63 F43 O23 O40 The Theoretical Framework of Economic Growth. Third Axis: The Reality, Monetary policy, economic growth, money supply, code of money and credit JEL Classification Codes: E52, E63, F43, O23, O40 The Theoretical Framework of Economic Growth. Third Axis: The Reality |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680589 |
| By: | Damane, Moeti |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the differential impacts of business and household credit on Lesotho’s economic performance using simultaneous quantile regression analysis. The results indicate that business credit significantly boosts real GDP, particularly at lower quantiles, while household credit consistently exerts a negative influence across all quantiles. These findings are corroborated by OLS regression and robustness checks using the novel method of moments quantile regression model. The study advocates for policies that enhance business credit access, regulate household credit, maintain robust financial regulation, promote economic diversification, and support balanced financial practices through financial literacy programs. Such measures are essential for leveraging the positive effects of business credit on economic growth and mitigating the adverse impacts of household credit, thereby fostering sustainable development in Lesotho |
| Keywords: | Credit Allocation, Economic Performance, Quantile Regression, Household Credit, Business Credit |
| JEL: | C21 G1 G28 O16 |
| Date: | 2024–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121954 |
| By: | Gary Richardson; Marco Del Angel |
| Abstract: | Which firms relied on commercial banks for credit and which firms did not at the onset of the Great Depression would seem to be an important question given the vast literature discussing banking distress in the United States during the 1930s. The question, however, has not been answered. This essay addresses that issue by analyzing data from an Internal Revenue Service publication, Statistics of Income. The hitherto unexplored data reveals that small firms in all industries borrowed heavily from commercial banks and relied on them for credit necessary to fund ongoing operations. The largest firms in most sectors deposited more in banks than they borrowed from them. Sectors whose firms depended most on commercial banks for credit were wholesaling, retailing, services, and the processing of agricultural products. In contrast, nearly half of economic activity in mining and construction, the majority of output in manufacturing, and the preponderance of firms in transportation operated independent of commercial banks |
| JEL: | E01 E44 N1 N12 N22 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32918 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Joseph Nnanna (Abuja, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | This research investigates how enhancing remittances affects total factor productivity (TFP) dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) empirical strategy is adopted for the purpose of the study and the engaged TFP dynamics are: TFP, real TFP, welfare TFP and real welfare TFP. Significant net effects are not apparent from enhancing remittances for TFP, real TFP growth and welfare TFP while positive net effects are apparent on real welfare TFP. The unexpected findings are elucidated and policy implications are discussed. This study has complemented the attendant literature by assessing how growing remittances influence dynamics of TFP in Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | Economic Output; Remitances; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | E23 F24 F30 O16 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/021 |
| By: | Ms. Maria-Angels Oliva; Nika Khinashvili |
| Abstract: | In a 157 emerging markets and developing countries sample, remittances continue to grow fast, outpacing other financial inflows (as a share of GDP), particularly in Asia. Without alternative policy instruments, foreign exchange interventions (FXIs) have often been the authorities’ go-to tool to manage the short-term effects of these remittance inflows. However, this practice comes at a cost. This paper shows that FXIs are quick, temporary solutions that often may hinder the development of the recipient country’s financial sector and may not support financial stability over the medium term. The analysis suggests that FXIs act as an insurance tool that, by mitigating FX volatility, protect remittance recipients and tradable sectors from FX risks, encouraging less bank deposits (consistent with more spending) and lower buffers in the banking sector. These costs add to other direct FXI-related costs already identified in the literature. The development of private sector market risk management tools should support longer-term structural reforms required to increase the absorptive capacity of additional FX inflows. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/191 |
| By: | Takeo Hori (Department of Industrial Engineering and Economics, School of Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology); Ryonghun Im (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University); Hiroshi Nakaota (Faculty of Economics, Osaka University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Increases in the price-to-dividend ratio (PDR) have been observed during bubble periods. However, in the 2010s, asset prices have surged to bubble-era levels without a rise in the PDR. Based on this observation, we construct a macroeconomic model in which asset prices can be high or low under a constant PDR. In both equilibria, asset prices are entirely determined by the sum of expected future dividends and influence macroeconomic performance. The high asset price stimulates capital accumulation. |
| Keywords: | asset bubbles, fundamental value, credit constraints, self-fulfilling expectation, multiple equilibria |
| JEL: | E44 G01 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:278 |
| By: | Waithaka, Douglas Mwangi (Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW)); Kendzia, Michael Jan (Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW)) |
| Abstract: | History teaches valuable lessons. This article examines the performance of the stock market during various boom and bust phases over the last forty years in the United States. By doing so, four previous manias and panics scenarios are analyzed, including the 1987 black Monday crash, the Dotcom bubble in the early 2000s, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2019 Covid pandemic. At the same time, the unemployment rate, the growth domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rate, the conference board's leading economic index and the wages growth rate are considered. Econometric models were finally used to study the markets relationships. The study finds that the labor market lags the stock market during manias and panics, supporting the hypothesis of a delayed response in the labor market. The unemployment rate reacted particularly late to the black Monday crash, the Dotcom bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. The leading economic index followed the stock market closest and with the slightest lag. Wages growth rate and the growth domestic product per capita growth rate reacted with varying degrees to each mania and panic episodes. |
| Keywords: | S&P 500, leading economic index, wage growth rate, unemployment rate |
| JEL: | B23 B27 E24 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17276 |
| By: | Kubitza, Christian |
| Abstract: | Financial losses can have persistent effects on the financial system. This paper proposes an empirical measure for the duration of these effects, Spillover Persistence. I document that Spillover Persistence is strongly correlated with financial conditions; during banking crises, Spillover Persistence is higher, whereas in the run-up phase of stock market bubbles it is lower. Lower Spillover Persistence also associates with a more fragile system, e.g., a higher probability of future crises, consistent with the volatility paradox. The results emphasize the dynamics of loss spillovers as an important dimension of systemic risk and financial constraints as a key determinant of persistence. JEL Classification: E44, G01, G12, G20, G32 |
| Keywords: | asset price bubbles, financial crises, fire sales, fragility, systemic risk |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242981 |
| By: | Pavel Brendler; Moritz Kuhn; Ulrike I. Steins |
| Abstract: | Differences in household saving rates are a key driver of wealth inequality. But what determines these differences in saving rates and wealth accumulation? We provide a new answer to this longstanding question based on new empirical evidence and a new modeling framework. In the data, we decompose U.S. household wealth into its main portfolio components to document two new empirical facts. First, the variation in wealth by income is mainly driven by differences in participation in asset markets rather than by the amounts invested. Wealth differences are a matter of to have or not to have. Second, the large heterogeneity in asset market participation closely follows observed differences in access to asset markets. Combining these two facts, we develop a new model of life-cycle wealth accumulation in which income-dependent market access is the key driver of differences in asset market participation and saving rates by income. The calibrated model accurately captures the joint distribution of income and wealth. Eliminating heterogeneity in access to asset markets increases wealth accumulation in the bottom half of the income distribution by 32%. Facilitating access to employer-sponsored retirement accounts improves broad-based wealth accumulation in the U.S. economy. Historical data support the model’s prediction. |
| Keywords: | Wealth inequality; Labor market heterogeneity; Household portfolios |
| JEL: | D31 E21 H31 |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:98835 |
| By: | Mauricio Calani; Lucas Rosso |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how differences in portfolio choice across households help explain the highly unequal wealth distribution seen in the data. It has been well documented that participation rates in investment in risky assets are substantially smaller than the ones predicted in standard models of portfolio choice. Also, both participation rates and risky shares are highly increasing in wealth. However, both features are usually absent in workhorse models of wealth accumulation. We introduce portfolio choice and adjustment frictions into an otherwise standard model of household saving behavior. Calibrating it to U.S. household-level data, we show that the model is able to provide a better fit of the wealth distribution while being consistent with well-known facts of households’ portfolio choices. In particular, the model explains roughly half of the gap between top wealth shares predicted by traditional models of wealth accumulation (e.g. Aiyagari, 1994) and the data. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1016 |
| By: | Shalini Mitra; Gareth Liu-Evans |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of an intangible investment technology shock in driving and propagating business cycles. In a dynamic general equilibrium framework with borrowing constrained entrepreneurs, we show that consumption smoothing by entrepreneurs, which is associated with reallocation of physical investment and hours from final goods to intangible investment, is the key mechanism through which aggregate co-movement arises in the model. The reallocation channel is especially strong in the presence of binding financial constraints. We use firm level intangible capital estimates to discipline the model and show that the entrepreneur’s degree of risk aversion, which determines their preference for consumption smoothing given their constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility, plays a key role in quantitatively generating the observed joint aggregate business cycle dynamics of output, consumption, investment and hours. For instance, entrepreneurs can display too little or too much risk aversion, in which case aggregate comovement is negated. |
| Keywords: | Intangible investment shock, reallocation, intangible capital, business cycles, aggregate comovement |
| JEL: | E13 E22 E32 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:liv:livedp:202414 |
| By: | Velasco, Sofia |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a Bayesian Quantile Factor Augmented VAR (BQFAVAR) to examine the asymmetric effects of monetary policy throughout the business cycle. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that the model effectively captures non-linearities in impulse responses. Analysis of aggregate responses to a contractionary monetary policy shock reveals that financial variables and industrial production exhibit more pronounced impacts during recessions compared to expansions, aligning with predictions from the ’financial accelerator’ propagation mechanism literature. Additionally, inflation displays a higher level of symmetry across economic conditions, consistent with households’ loss aversion in the context of reference-dependent preferences and central banks’ commitment to maintaining price stability. The examination of price rigidities at a granular level, employing sectoral prices and quantities, demonstrates that during recessions, the contractionary policy shock results in a more pronounced negative impact on quantities compared to expansions. This finding provides support for the notion of stronger downward than upward price rigidity, as suggested by ’menu-costs models’. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E32, E37, E52 |
| Keywords: | asymmetric effects of monetary policy, Bayesian Quantile VAR, disaggregate prices, FAVAR, non-linear models |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242983 |
| By: | Dominic Cucic; Denis Gorea |
| Abstract: | We analyze the role of nonbank lenders in the transmission of monetary policy using data on the universe of unsecured credit to firms and households in Denmark. Nonbanks increase their credit supply after a monetary contraction, both relative to banks and in absolute terms. The nonbank credit expansion is driven by long-term debt funding flowing to nonbanks. The attenuation of the traditional bank lending channel of monetary policy has real effects: nonbank credit insulates corporate investment and household consumption from adverse consequences of monetary contractions. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, nonbanks, shadow banks, banks, real effects |
| JEL: | E51 E52 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1211 |
| By: | Umar Isah, Yahaya |
| Abstract: | The study investigates effect of monetary policy variables on performance of prices of stock in Nigeria. The study covered the period 1986 –2022. Data were generated from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2023 edition. The method of data analyses used are ARDL technique as All Share Index (ASI) was used to measure stock price, while explanatory variables included inflation rate (INF), Broad money supply (M2), Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) and Real exchange rate (REXR). The ARDL bound test result indicates a long run association between monetary policy variables and stock prices in Nigeria. The long run estimates shows that only real exchange rate has significant effect on stock prices further findings reveal that monetary policy rate has significant impact on prices in stock market. The findings inform the conclusion that most monetary policy variables do not create necessary directions in market prices in Nigeria and recommends that the Nigerian stock market cannot yet be regarded as good policy monetary policy channel in Nigeria as the market is yet to absorb monetary policy impulses to an extent that monetary policy tools and instruments may significantly influence its direction and development. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; stock market prices; Exchange rate; Money supply; ARDL |
| JEL: | G18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122083 |
| By: | Brzezinski, Adam; Palma, Nuno; Velde, François R. |
| Abstract: | Debates about the nature and economic role of money are mostly informed by evidence from the twentieth century, but money has existed for millennia. We argue that there are many lessons to be learned from monetary history that are relevant for current topics of policy relevance. The past is a source of evidence on how money works across different situations, helping to tease out features of money that do not depend on one time and place. A close reading of history also offers testing grounds for models of economic behavior and can thereby guide theories on how money is transmitted to the real economy. |
| Keywords: | identification in macroeconomics; monetary history; monetary policy; natural experiments; policy experiments |
| JEL: | E40 E50 N10 |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125356 |
| By: | Johannes Boehm; Thomas Chaney |
| Abstract: | What caused the end of antiquity, the shift of economic activity away from the Mediterranean towards northern Europe? We assemble a large database of coin flows between the 4th and 10th century and use it to document the shifting patterns of exchange during this time period. We build a dynamic model of trade and money where coins gradually diffuse along trade routes. We estimate the parameters of this model and recover time-varying bi-lateral trade flows and real consumption from data on the spatial and temporal distribution of coins. Our estimates suggest that technical progress, increased minting, and to a lesser degree the fall in trade flows over the newly formed border between Islam and Christianity contributed to the relative growth of Muslim Spain and the Frankish lands of northern Europe and the decline of the Roman-Byzantine world. Our estimates are consistent with the increased urbanization of western and northern Europe relative to the eastern Mediterranean from the 8th to the 10th century. |
| Keywords: | gravity models, international trade, market access, diffusion |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2030 |
| By: | Asim Ghosh; Soumyajyoti Biswas; Bikas K. Chakrabarti |
| Abstract: | We study the fluctuations, particularly the inequality of fluctuations, in cryptocurrency prices over the last ten years. We calculate the inequality in the price fluctuations through different measures, such as the Gini and Kolkata indices, and also the $Q$ factor (given by the ratio between the highest value and the average value) of these fluctuations. We compare the results with the equivalent quantities in some of the more prominent national currencies and see that while the fluctuations (or inequalities in such fluctuations) for cryptocurrencies were initially significantly higher than national currencies, over time the fluctuation levels of cryptocurrencies tend towards the levels characteristic of national currencies. We also compare similar quantities for a few prominent stock prices. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.03676 |
| By: | Lin William Cong; Pulak Ghosh; Jiasun Li; Qihong Ruan |
| Abstract: | Using proprietary data from the predominant cryptocurrency exchange in India together with the country's Household Inflation Expectations Survey, we document a significantly positive association between inflation expectations and individual cryptocurrency purchases. Higher inflation expectations are also associated with more new investors in cryptocurrencies. We investigate investment heterogeneity in multiple dimensions, and find the effect to be concentrated in Bitcoin (BTC) and Tether (USDT) trading. The results are robust after controlling for speculative demand captured by surveys of investors' expected cryptocurrency returns, and admit causal interpretations as confirmed using multiple instrumental variables. Our findings provide direct evidence that households already adopt cryptocurrencies for inflation hedging, which in turn rationalizes their high adoption in developing countries without a globally dominant currency. |
| JEL: | G0 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32945 |
| By: | Yu Zhang; Claudio Tessone |
| Abstract: | When analyzing Bitcoin users' balance distribution, we observed that it follows a log-normal pattern. Drawing parallels from the successful application of Gibrat's law of proportional growth in explaining city size and word frequency distributions, we tested whether the same principle could account for the log-normal distribution in Bitcoin balances. However, our calculations revealed that the exponent parameters in both the drift and variance terms deviate slightly from one. This suggests that Gibrat's proportional growth rule alone does not fully explain the log-normal distribution observed in Bitcoin users' balances. During our exploration, we discovered an intriguing phenomenon: Bitcoin users tend to fall into two distinct categories based on their behavior, which we refer to as ``poor" and ``wealthy" users. Poor users, who initially purchase only a small amount of Bitcoin, tend to buy more bitcoins first and then sell out all their holdings gradually over time. The certainty of selling all their coins is higher and higher with time. In contrast, wealthy users, who acquire a large amount of Bitcoin from the start, tend to sell off their holdings over time. The speed at which they sell their bitcoins is lower and lower over time and they will hold at least a small part of their initial holdings at last. Interestingly, the wealthier the user, the larger the proportion of their balance and the higher the certainty they tend to sell. This research provided an interesting perspective to explore bitcoin users' behaviors which may apply to other finance markets. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.10407 |
| By: | Lambert, Claudia; Larkou, Chloe; Pancaro, Cosimo; Pellicani, Antonella; Sintonen, Meri |
| Abstract: | By applying a structural demand model to unique consumer-level survey data from the euro area, we assess how different CBDC design options, combined with individual (revealed) preferences, influence the potential demand for a digital euro. Estimating the demand for a digital euro, we find that if it were unconstrained, it could range, in steady state, between 3-28% of household liquid assets or €0.12 - €1.11 trillion, depending on whether consumers would perceive the digital euro to be more cash-like or deposit-like. With an illustrative €3, 000 holding limit per person, it could instead range between 2-9% or €0.10 -€0.38 trillion. Privacy, automatic funding, and instant settlement raise its potential demand. JEL Classification: E41, E50, E58 |
| Keywords: | Central bank digital currency, demand estimation, design attributes, structural model |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242980 |
| By: | Aurazo, Jose; Gasmi, Farid |
| Abstract: | Digitization of retail payments has facilitated the promotion of financial inclusion recognized to stimulate growth, alleviate poverty, and address gender disparities in the financial sector. This paper closely examines four prominent payment solutions in the developing world, which are M-Pesa in Kenya, UPI in India, Pix in Brazil, and Yape in Peru. We employ a descriptive approach to identify the main factors that have contributed to the success of these digital payment systems, focusing on the role played by: i) private digital platforms developers and providers; ii) regulators and central banks and iii) the degree of the payment system interoperability. Although, to some extent, these varied experiences suggest that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, they highlight the necessity of active public-private sector cooperation and placing the end user at the center of such initiatives. |
| Keywords: | Digital payments; Financial inclusion; Interoperability; Regulation. |
| JEL: | G23 G28 L51 L96 O16 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129719 |
| By: | Auriol, Emmanuelle; Gonzalez Fanfalone, Alexia |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how Mobile Network Operator (MNO) impacts traditional banks’ coverage decision in a model of vertical and horizontal differentiation with asymmetric transportation costs. The competitive pressure triggered by MNOs entry on traditional banking sector leads to prices decrease and broadens financial inclusion as the traditional banking sector expands its network in response to the entry of MNOs. The model’s predictions are checked against data from Kenya, where mobile banking has been most successful. Results from the econometric model for the period 2000-2011, suggest that, roughly, for each 7 new mobile agents in a sub-locality, one new bank branch opened. |
| Keywords: | Financial inclusion; Regulation; Mobile banking; Development |
| JEL: | G18 L51 L88 L96 O16 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129721 |
| By: | Lin William Cong; Xiaohong Huang; Siguang Li; Jian Ni |
| Abstract: | We revisit the relationship between firm competition and real efficiency in a novel setting with informational feedback from financial markets. Although intensified competition can decrease market concentration in production, it reduces the value of proprietary information (e.g., market prospects) for speculators and discourages information production and price discovery in financial markets. Therefore, competition generates non-monotonic welfare effects through two competing channels: market concentration and information production. When information reflected in stock prices is sufficiently valuable for production decisions, competition can harm both consumer welfare and real efficiency. Our results are robust under cross-asset trading and learning and highlight the importance of considering the interaction between product market and financial market in antitrust policy, e.g., concerning the regulation of horizontal mergers. |
| JEL: | D61 D83 G14 G34 G40 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32944 |
| By: | Ackah, Charles; Hanley, Aoife; Hecker, Lars; Kodom, Michael |
| Abstract: | Our analysis of over 500 Ghanaian firms sheds light, for the first time, on how certain firms managed to extract value from mobile money. Our regressions point to the usefulness of this form of cashless payments in stabilizing sales during the COVID pandemic. Perhaps the most important message from our analysis is the recognition that the benefits from mobile money extend beyond its purpose as a tool for transacting cashless payments. We reveal that firms using these additional tools supported by MoMo (e.g. for planning or saving purposes) report higher sales resilience, all things equal. Our findings appear to echo the literature on private householders (e.g. Jack and Suri, 2014). However, while the latter report a positive effect due to remittances, our finding is more likely driven by enhanced ability of businesses to streamline their planning and sales. |
| Keywords: | Mobile Money, Africa, Firm, Urbanization |
| JEL: | G23 G21 L25 O14 O18 O33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kcgwps:303046 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Therese E. Zogo (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Mariette C. N. Mete (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Barbara Deladem Mensah (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The present study assesses the relevance of microfinance institutions (MFIs) in the effect of financial access on gender economic inclusion in 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 2004 to 2018. The adopted empirical strategy is interactive quantile regressions that are tailored to account for both simultaneity and unobserved heterogeneity. Two MFIs dynamics are employed: MFIs per 1000km2 and MFIs per 100 000 adults. Financial access is measured in terms of female ownership of bank accounts while gender inclusion is in terms of reducing female unemployment. MFIs per 1000 km2 must reach thresholds of between 2.328 and 2.490 at the 90th quantile of the female unemployment distribution in order for female ownership of bank account to reduce female unemployment. The partial validity of the tested hypothesis is clarified and policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Microfinance; Gender; Inclusive development |
| JEL: | G20 I10 I32 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aak:wpaper:24/009 |
| By: | Pascal Bougssere (UV-BF - Université virtuelle du Burkna Faso); Mamadou Toe (UTS - Université Thomas Sankara); Wend-Kuuni Raïssa Yerbanga (UTS - Université Thomas Sankara) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the influence of microcredit financing conditions on the financial performance of microenterprises in Burkina Faso. To this end, an analysis was carried out using a linear model for a sample of 129 microenterprises based on panel data from 2017 to 2019. The results obtained using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) method show that the amount of microcredit and the repayment period have a positive impact on the financial performance of microenterprises. In contrast, the interest rate, proximity to microfinance institutions (MFIs) and the gender of the business owner negatively affect this performance. These results emphasize that in the Burkinabe context, proximity to MFIs does not guarantee the profitability of microenterprises, but rather benefits MFIs in repaying loans and expanding their portfolio. They also indicate that women-led micro-enterprises are less profitable because they have difficulties accessing credit, particularly due to a lack of collateral. Conversely, businesses run by educated owners have better financial performance. |
| Keywords: | Financing conditions, microcredit, microenterprise, financial performance |
| Date: | 2024–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04692353 |
| By: | Catherine Casanova; Eugenio Cerutti; Swapan-Kumar Pradhan |
| Abstract: | While Chinese banks have become the top cross-border lender to EMDEs, their expansion has slowed recently, both in terms of volume and market share. Also, the strong correlation of China’s bilateral trade and its banks’ cross-border lending has weakened, while during 2020-22 lending became more positively correlated with FDI. In our paper, we analyse these patterns and we explore the role of borrower risk variables and foreign policies. Our findings show that, although the shifting correlation from trade to FDI is a general EMDE phenomenon, China’s Belt and Road Initiative reinforces it. By contrast, borrowers that potentially benefit from geoeconomic fragmentation do not display stronger FDI-lending relationships. We also find that Chinese banks exhibit different levels of risk tolerance relative to other bank nationalities as borrower country risk variables are positively correlated with Chinese banks’ market shares, but not with their amounts of cross-border lending. |
| Keywords: | cross-border lending, chinese banks, trade, FDI, borrower indebtedness, pandemic, sanctions, geoeconomic fragmentation |
| JEL: | F34 F36 F65 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1213 |
| By: | Mr. Mario Catalan; Mr. Salih Fendoglu; Tomohiro Tsuruga |
| Abstract: | Do geopolitical tensions between countries influence the cross-border asset allocation of investment funds? Our answer is yes. We estimate gravity models and find that investment funds allocate smaller shares of their portfolios to recipient countries that are geopolitically more distant to their country of origin—with geopolitical distance measured by dissimilarity in countries’ voting behavior in the United Nations General Assembly. We also find an investment diversion effect: a recipient country attracts additional investments when its source countries get geopolitically more distant to third-party countries. These results are robust to instrumenting geopolitical distance and using alternative distance measures. |
| Keywords: | Globalization; geopolitics; geoeconomics; fragmentation; portfolioflows; cross-border; asset allocation; investment funds; gravitymodel; international finance. |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/196 |