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on Financial Development and Growth |
| By: | Hasan, Amena; Dowla, Asif-Ud; Tarannum, Ramisa |
| Abstract: | This research paper examines the impact of financial inclusion on the economic growth of developing nations, with a focus on Bangladesh. It reviews existing literature and develops hypotheses related to savings, capital mobilization, entrepreneurship, poverty alleviation, financial stability, and formalization of the economy. The paper presents a conceptual framework illustrating the pathways between financial inclusion and economic growth indicators. Data analysis shows a positive correlation between financial inclusion and GDP growth, as well as a link to poverty reduction. The paper concludes with policy implications for promoting financial inclusion in Bangladesh. |
| Keywords: | Financial inclusion, economic growth, Bangladesh, poverty alleviation, financial stability |
| JEL: | D8 E4 H3 M2 |
| Date: | 2024–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120213&r=fdg |
| By: | Damane, Moeti; Ho, Sin-Yu |
| Abstract: | The study explores the link between financial inclusion and financial stability in 37 Sub-Saharan African countries. Results of our panel data analysis show that financial inclusion positively impacts financial stability, especially in low-income countries with low levels of financial stability. Additionally, prior improvements in financial stability were found to have positive effects on present levels of financial stability. The study recommends policymakers to enhance cooperation, target excluded communities for financial inclusion, improve financial literacy, and cross-fertilize skills. |
| Keywords: | Sub-Saharan Africa; Financial Inclusion; Financial Stability; Dynamic Common Correlated Effects; Quantile Regression |
| JEL: | G0 G2 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120238&r=fdg |
| By: | damane, moeti; Ho, Sin-Yu |
| Abstract: | This study explores the development of financial inclusion in 37 Sub-Saharan Africa countries during 2005-2019. We first offer a conceptual definition and measurement of financial inclusion. We then discuss international initiatives and country-specific strategies to promote financial inclusion. We also document cross country trends in financial inclusion in the region and highlight general challenges before identifying possible solutions. We find that the extent of financial inclusion in the region varies across low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income economies, with lower-middle-income countries having higher access to and use of financial services. Furthermore, although financial inclusion in the region has improved over time, partly due to legislative initiatives, challenges remain, including lack of coordination, gaps between financial deepening and inclusion, low financial literacy, and gender discrimination. We recommend the need for stakeholder-focused national financial inclusion strategies and policy reforms based on peer learning and transformation. |
| Keywords: | Sub-Saharan Africa; Financial inclusion; National financial inclusion strategies; Alliance for financial inclusion; Financial access survey. |
| JEL: | G0 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2023–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120239&r=fdg |
| By: | Audi, Marc; Poulin, Marc; Ali, Amjad |
| Abstract: | This study aims to examine the impact of financial inclusion on human well-being in South Asian countries from 1996 to 2020. Specifically, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh were selected for this investigation. Human well-being is treated as the dependent variable, while financial inclusion, health facilities, voice & accountability, income inequality, corruption, education facilities, and the unemployment rate are considered independent variables. The study's findings indicate that financial inclusion, health facilities, and education facilities have a positive and significant impact on human well-being. The improvement of health and educational facilities not only creates more employment opportunities but also contributes to the enhancement of income, education, and health status within a nation. These results explain that selected South Asian countries should prioritize the promotion of education and health facilities to elevate the overall level of human well-being. Voice & accountability, along with corruption, exhibit an inverse and significant influence on human well-being in selected South Asian countries. Income inequality, on the other hand, shows an inverse but insignificant impact on human well-being, while unemployment has a significant and positive influence. Based on the estimated results, it is recommended that to enhance the level of human well-being in South Asian countries, there is a need to improve financial inclusion, health facilities, and educational facilities. |
| Keywords: | human well-being, financial inclusion, health facilities, voice & accountability |
| JEL: | D63 I22 I30 P46 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120119&r=fdg |
| By: | Davidson, Sharada Nia; Moccero, Diego Nicolas |
| Abstract: | When capital in the banking system becomes depleted, the degree to which financial intermediation and the macroeconomy are adversely affected is likely to depend on the financial and macroeconomic environment. However, existing studies either assume that the effects of bank capital shocks are linear or ignore feedback effects and the impact on the macroeconomy. Using data on the largest euro area countries and Bayesian Panel Threshold VARs, we investigate the importance of different factors in amplifying shocks in banks’ vulnerability to capital depletion. Our results demonstrate that nonlinearities matter. When the banking sector is already vulnerable to large capital losses, it is more difficult for banks to accommodate a depletion in capital and lending and economic activity contract more severely. Similarly, low interest rates, which are typically associated with low bank margins and profitability, also lead to a larger decline in lending. De-risking is also more pronounced in these cases. The state of the business cycle, though, does not influence the propagation of shocks to the same extent. We conclude that financial factors play a larger role than the macroeconomic environment in heightening shocks to banks’ vulnerability to capital depletion. JEL Classification: C11, C33, E58, G21 |
| Keywords: | bank balance sheet, bank capital vulnerability, hierarchical prior, long run marginal expected shortfall, macroeconomic adjustment, panel threshold var |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242912&r=fdg |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Following Kazakhstan’s recovery from the 2014-15 decline in oil prices, the country was hit by a series of shocks, starting with the COVID-19 pandemic, then the January 2022 social unrest, and most recently the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So far, that has had limited impact on output, also thanks to various measures taken by the authorities to stabilize the economy. However, there are risks to the outlook. The financial system, which is small and bank-dominated, underwent significant changes during this period. Banks’ largest exposures are to households while large corporates rely on non-residents for funding. |
| Date: | 2024–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/048&r=fdg |
| By: | Winston Wei Dou; Yan Ji; Di Tian; Pengfei Wang |
| Abstract: | We develop an endogenous growth model with heterogeneous firms facing financial frictions, where misallocation emerges explicitly as a crucial endogenous state variable and plays a significant role in driving economic growth through the valuation channel. The model illustrates that transient macroeconomic shocks affecting misallocation can yield persistent effects on aggregate growth. In equilibrium, slow-moving misallocation endogenously generates long-run uncertainty about economic growth by distorting innovation decisions. When agents hold recursive preferences, misallocation-driven low-frequency growth fluctuations result in substantial risk premia in capital markets and large losses in consumer welfare. Employing a misallocation measure motivated by the model, we substantiate our findings with empirical evidence showing that misallocation effectively captures low-frequency fluctuations in both aggregate growth and asset returns. |
| JEL: | L11 O30 O40 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32147&r=fdg |
| By: | Schult, Christoph |
| Abstract: | I estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the United States that incorporates oil market shocks and risk shocks working through credit market frictions. The findings of this analysis indicate that risk shocks play a crucial role during the Great Recession and the Dot-Com bubble but not during other economic downturns. Credit market frictions do not amplify persistent oil market shocks. This result holds as long as entry and exit rates of entrepreneurs are independent of the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | financial frictions, NK-DSGE models, oil price, recessions, risk |
| JEL: | E32 E37 E44 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:283617&r=fdg |
| By: | Alessandro Moro (Bank of Italy); Valerio Nispi Landi (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Using a DSGE model, we study the macroeconomic consequences of a foreign central bank digital currency (CBDC) being available to residents in a small open economy. We find that a gradual and permanent increase in domestic households' preference for a foreign CBDC leads to a structural reduction in economic activity, especially when the CBDC is designed to be similar to domestic deposits. Imposing capital flow management measures on outflows, relaxing macroprudential policy, or selling foreign reserves can help smooth the transition. A Taylor rule that targets PPI inflation is more effective in limiting the disruptive effects than CPI targeting or an exchange-rate peg. We also show that an economy with a large stock of foreign CBDC is better shielded from exogenous increases in the interest rate on foreign debt if the CBDC remuneration remains constant. |
| Keywords: | central bank digital currency, DSGE model, open economy macroeconomics, financial globalization |
| JEL: | E44 E58 F38 F41 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1416_23&r=fdg |
| By: | Mogaji, Peter Kehinde |
| Abstract: | Neutrality of money holds that the real economy is not affected by the level of the money supply level. Superneutrality of money as a property stronger than neutrality of money connotes that the rate of money supply growth has no effect on real variables. The hypothesis of money superneutrality is about what the long run relationship between money supply growth and growth in real output and changes in price levels and what these suggest for the use of monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy. This paper assesses the validity of the hypothesis of money superneutrality in the long run by gathering empirical evidence for 50 African economies within five (5) monetary and economic blocs of Africa (EAC, ECCAS, ECOWAS, AMU/MENA, and SADC), including Djibouti and Ethiopia. This study determines if money supply growth is influential across economies in Africa. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing cointegration approach developed by Pesaran et al (2001) was employed to test money superneutrality in this study. Relevant time series annual data of money supply growth, and real GDP growth and inflation spanning over a period of 42 years between 1980 and 2022 were sourced and applied for 53 African countries under the study. Findings and results generated from the ARDL estimation results produced evidence to suggest that money is not superneutral in monetary policy outcomes and implementation virtually all the economies of Africa evaluated, from both perspectives of the influence of money supply growth on real output and on inflation. However, it is necessary to state that the assessments of the influence of money supply growth on inflation rate yield establish the relevance of money across African economies. |
| Keywords: | Money Neutrality, Money Superneutrality, ARDL, EAC, ECCAS, ECOWAS, AMU, MENA, SADC |
| JEL: | E4 |
| Date: | 2023–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120181&r=fdg |
| By: | Thomas Wangi |
| Abstract: | The accumulation of excess reserves in the banking system of PNG may have undesired implications on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Hence, this paper employs a structural VAR model to measure the flow-on effects of positive shocks to excess reserves and the lending rate on private sector loans, the exchange rate, the CPI and real GDP using quarterly time-series data from March 2001 to December 2020. The study uses quarterly data since high frequency data for some variables are not available. The shocks are measured by the orthogonalized innovations to the monetary policy variables. The impulse response results show that the lending rate and excess reserves shocks have unanticipated effects on the exchange rate and the CPI in the short run. Similarly, in the long run, the response of GDP to the shocks is not consistent with monetary theory. Furthermore, the variance decomposition results indicate that excess reserves account for minimal components of the shocks to all variables in the short horizon. The historical decomposition results suggest that the excess reserves shock contributes weakly to the fluctuations of the CPI and GDP over the sample period. The findings determine that excess reserves reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanism in PNG. The study suggests that in order to promote an effective monetary policy transmission, the central bank should consider improving the monetary policy framework and modernizing the financial market system. |
| Keywords: | excess reserves, monetary policy transmission, structural VAR |
| JEL: | C5 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-16&r=fdg |
| By: | Charles Yuji Horioka (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Asian Growth Research Institute, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, JAPAN, School of Economics, University of the Philippines, Diliman, PHILIPPINES, and National Bureau of Economic Research, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | The finding of Feldstein and Horioka (1980) that domestic saving and domestic investment are highly correlated across countries despite the rapid globalization and liberalization of financial markets in recent decades has been regarded as a Puzzle or Paradox. However, in this paper, we show that countries as a whole may not be able to transfer their capital abroad and that the Feldstein-Horioka Finding of domestic saving and domestic investment being highly correlated across countries may arise even if there are no frictions in financial markets and even if individual investors can freely transfer their capital abroad if there are frictions in goods markets such as transport costs, tariffs, nontariff barriers, the cost of regulatory compliance, etc. In fact, there is evidence that frictions in goods markets are a more serious impediment to countries as a whole being able to transfer their capital abroad than frictions in financial markets, especially in the short run. |
| Keywords: | Capital controls; Fallacy of composition; Feldstein-Horioka finding; Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle or Paradox; Frictions in financial markets; Frictions in goods markets; Global interest rate; Globalization and liberalization of financial markets; Interest parity; Interest rate equalization; International capital flows; International capital mobility; Saving-investment correlations; Saving retention coefficient; Trade costs; Trade frictions |
| JEL: | F15 F21 F32 F36 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2024-03&r=fdg |
| By: | Marco Albori (Bank of Italy); Alessio Anzuini (Bank of Italy); Fabrizio Ferriani; Luca Rossi (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Offshore Financial Centers (OFCs) exert a profound distortion on economic analyses based on cross-border capital flows reported in official statistics, as a large share of those investments is known to be solely due to tax and regulatory avoidance purposes. Notwithstanding the importance of this phenomenon, scant information is available concerning its actual magnitude. This paper focuses on Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) and fills this gap by using an extensive list of FDI determinants and estimating a gravity-like binary choice specification to assess how much bilateral FDIs are driven by economic integration motives versus profit shifting opportunities. We find that the share of so-called phantom FDIs, after rising in 2010-15, stabilized at around 40% of total FDIs in recent years and that this share is systematically larger in OFCs, reconciling available evidence on the abnormal amount of recorded FDIs in OFCs. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investments, FDI network, tax havens, gravity models |
| JEL: | C33 F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_805_23&r=fdg |
| By: | Eichler, Stefan; Nauerth, Jannik A. |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effect of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on bilateral foreign portfolio investment in equity and debt securities. We find that expropriation risk and the level of a BIT's investor protection are complementary. Applying a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood model to a panel of 60 home and 39 host countries from 2002 to 2017, we find that host countries receive 40% more bilateral equity investment when they protect foreign investors with a BIT. This effect almost doubles when investment protection of BITs is strong, and the political risk of the host country is high. |
| Keywords: | Bilateral investment treaties, Bilateral portfolio investment, Political risk, Investor protection, Emerging markets |
| JEL: | F32 G15 K33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tudcep:283594&r=fdg |
| By: | Nauerth, Jannik A. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of arbitral proceedings on bilateral portfolio equity investments in emerging markets. Investment disputes may deter foreign investors as they reveal a government's poor behavior towards foreign investors. The analysis investigates the effects of the first initiation of arbitral proceedings, the first outcome in favor of the investor, and the first outcome in favor of the respondent state of arbitration proceedings. The database is an unbalanced panel of 55 home and 36 host countries from 2001 to 2018. Estimations do not reveal an unconditionally significant effect of arbitral proceedings on bilateral portfolio equity holdings. The impact becomes significant considering the interplay with bilateral investment treaties and political risk. |
| Keywords: | Investment disputes, Arbitration proceeding, Bilateral portfolio investment, Bilateral investment treaty, Investment protection, Emerging markets |
| JEL: | F32 F53 G15 K33 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tudcep:283576&r=fdg |
| By: | Bada Han; Rashad Ahmed; Mr. Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak |
| Abstract: | We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs but not in less developed EMEs and FMEs. We also examine the relationship between US dollar cycles, sectoral debt levels and growth, and economic activity. Among developed EMEs, higher expected household debt growth magnifies the impact of US dollar fluctuations on economic activity, with significant but less persistent effects on consumption and more persistent effects on investment. Our empirical findings highlight the important role of household debt dynamics in relatively developed EMEs. |
| Keywords: | Sectoral Debt; Household Debt; Dollar Cycle; Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/030&r=fdg |
| By: | Torres, Leonardo Barros; Paczos, Wojtek (Cardiff Business School); Shakhnov, (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | We present a theory of determinants of sovereign debt stability on foreign and domestic markets. Besides the two traditional factors - debt size and output contractions, we highlight the role of the third factor: distortionary tax, which hinders the government’s ability to freely raise revenues. We emphasise the impact of tax distortions and output fluctuations on the trade-off between domestic and foreign debt stability. The paper explains why outright defaults in domestic debt are rare, despite its significant share in public debt, and provides insights into optimal debt issuance and taxation strategies. |
| Keywords: | sovereign debt, debt stability, selective default, debt composition, distortionary tax |
| JEL: | F34 G15 H63 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2024/8&r=fdg |
| By: | Vincenzo Cuciniello (Bank of Italy); Claudio Michelacci (EIEF); Luigi Paciello (EIEF) |
| Abstract: | Business creation subsidies are a means for reducing firm debt and bankruptcy risk. Do they work? To answer the question, we consider a general equilibrium model where firms are financially constrained at entry and borrow in a competitive market by issuing long-term debt. A subsidy stimulates entry and market competition, which increases the bankruptcy rate of incumbent firms. If the subsidy is paid out ex ante to finance start-up expenditures, the subsidy reduces the debt and the bankruptcy rate of start-ups; if paid out ex post as a refund for start-up expenditures, the subsidy crowds out the equity rather than the debt of start-ups and their bankruptcy rate also increases. The model is calibrated to match North-South differences across Italian provinces. The optimal subsidy in the South is paid out entirely ex ante and yields an increase in welfare equivalent to almost one percent of consumption. When the same subsidy is paid out ex post as a proportion of 60 per cent, it results in a welfare loss of a similar amount. We discuss the implications for the ‘I Stay in the South’ policy recently introduced in Italy. |
| Keywords: | Firm dynamics, overborrowing, ratchet effect |
| JEL: | E44 E62 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1424_23&r=fdg |
| By: | Kristian Blickle; Zhiguo He; Jing Huang; Cecilia Parlatore |
| Abstract: | We study specialized lending in a credit market competition model with private information. Two banks, equipped with similar data processing systems, possess “general” signals regarding the borrower's quality. However, the specialized bank gains an additional advantage through further interactions with the borrower, allowing it to access “specialized” signals. In equilibrium, both lenders use general signals to screen loan applications, and the specialized lender prices the loan based on its specialized signal conditional on making a loan. This private-information-based pricing helps deliver the empirical regularity that loans made by specialized lenders have lower rates (i.e., lower winning bids) and better ex-post performance (i.e., lower non-performing loans). We show the robustness of our equilibrium characterization under a generalized information structure, endogenize the specialized lending through information acquisition, and discuss its various economic implications. |
| JEL: | D43 D44 D82 G21 G23 L10 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32155&r=fdg |
| By: | Krämer-Eis, Helmut; Botsari, Antonia; Gvetadze, Salome; Lang, Frank; Torfs, Wouter |
| Abstract: | This working paper provides an overview of the main markets relevant to the EIF, thereby documenting the impact of the polycrisis and the related challenging economic environment on SME financing. The publication first discusses the general market environment and then covers the markets for SME equity and debt products. In addition, it focuses on a number of thematic policy areas that are of particular interest to the EIF, such as Inclusive Finance, Fintech and Green finance & investment. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eifwps:283600&r=fdg |
| By: | Grill, Michael; Popescu, Alexandra; Rancoita, Elena |
| Abstract: | Climate-related risks are due to increase in coming years and can pose serious threats to financial stability. This paper, by means of a DSGE model including heterogeneous firms and banks, financial frictions and prudential regulation, first shows the need of climate-related capital requirements in the existing prudential framework. Indeed, we find that without specific climate prudential policies, transition risk can generate excessive risk-taking by banks, which in turn increases the volatility of lending and output. We further show that relying on microprudential regulation alone would not be enough to account for the systemic dimension of transition risk. Implementing macroprudential policies in addition to microprudential regulation, leads to a Pareto improvement. JEL Classification: D58, E58, E61, Q54 |
| Keywords: | prudential regulation, transition risk, financial frictions |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242910&r=fdg |
| By: | Robert J. Barro |
| Abstract: | The potential for rare economic disasters explains a lot of asset-pricing puzzles. I calibrate disaster probabilities from the twentieth century global history, especially the sharp contractions associated with World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II. The puzzles that can be explained include the high equity premium, low risk-free rate, and volatile stock returns. Another mystery that may be resolved is why expected real interest rates were low in the United States during major wars, such as World War II. The model, an extension of work by Rietz, maintains the tractable framework of a representative agent, timeadditive and isoelastic preferences, and complete markets. The results hold with i.i.d. shocks to productivity growth in a Lucas-tree type economy and also with the inclusion of capital formation. |
| Date: | 2024–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:620&r=fdg |
| By: | Fabrizio Ferriani (Bank of Italy); Andrea Gazzani (Bank of Italy); Filippo Natoli (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Using data from a broad panel of countries at a weekly frequency, we find that local natural disasters have significant effects on global portfolio flows. First, when disasters strike, international investors reduce their net flows to equity mutual funds exposed to affected countries. This only happens when disasters occur in the emerging economies that are more exposed to climate risk. Second, natural disasters lead investors to reduce their portfolio flows into unaffected, high-climate-risk countries in the same region as well. Third, disasters in high-climate-risk emerging economies spur investment flows into advanced countries that are relatively safer from a climate risk standpoint. Overall, this suggests that natural disasters trigger an updating of beliefs about global climate threats that are propagated via a new channel: international investors search for climatic safety. |
| Keywords: | climate change, natural disasters, capital flows, flight-to-safety, emerging markets |
| JEL: | C32 C33 E44 F3 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1420_23&r=fdg |
| By: | Hale, Galina |
| Keywords: | Economics, Applied Economics, Basic Behavioral and Social Science, Behavioral and Social Science, Climate Action, F21, F23, F64, Banking, Finance and Investment, Banking, finance and investment, Applied economics |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt7cz1p5k7&r=fdg |