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on Financial Development and Growth |
By: | IWASAKI, Ichiro; ONO, Shigeki |
Abstract: | We investigate whether the impacts of financial development and liberalization on economic growth vary across different stages of development, which remains unaddressed in the literature on the finance–growth nexus. In the analysis, a comparative meta-analysis was performed for studies of advanced, developing, and emerging market economies, using 6, 135 estimates extracted from a total of 379 previous works. The results have significant implications for studies of the finance–growth nexus. In particular, the impacts of financial development and liberalization on economic growth do not vary across different stages of development. |
Keywords: | economic development, finance–growth nexus, meta-synthesis, meta-regression analysis, publication selection bias |
JEL: | E44 G10 O11 O16 P43 |
Date: | 2023–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2023-06&r=fdg |
By: | Ichiro Iwasaki; Evžen Kočenda; Evžen Kocenda |
Abstract: | We analyze diverse and heterogenous literature to grasp the general effect size of financial development on economic growth on a world scale. For that, we perform by far the largest available meta-analysis of the finance–growth nexus using 3561 estimates collected from 177 studies. Our meta-synthesis results show that large heterogeneity in empirical evidence is, in fact, driven by only a limited number of variables (moderators). By using advanced techniques, we also document the existence of the publication selection bias that is propagated in the literature in a nonlinear fashion. We account for uncertainty in moderator selection by employing model-averaging techniques. After adjusting for the publication bias, the results of our meta-regression provide evidence of a small but genuine positive effect of the financial development on growth that very mildly declines over time. Finance channeled via capital markets seems to be more beneficial for economic growth than that provided in the form of private credit. Our evidence goes against arguments about the damaging role of financial development and is in line with century-old theoretical foundations that favor the positive role of finance on economic growth. |
Keywords: | financial development, economic growth, meta-analysis, publication selection bias |
JEL: | C12 D22 G21 G33 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10740&r=fdg |
By: | Artur Doshchyn |
Abstract: | While financial crises tend to be preceded by economic booms, most booms do not end with crises. Crises typically occur when booms are interrupted by persistent slowdowns in productivity growth. I develop a model in which risk of crisis emerges endogenously during boom because of increased fragility of the banking sector. Banks raise financing from households to invest in long-term projects, but their ability to do so is hindered by moral hazard, since bankers can misappropriate investors’ funds. Demandable deposits create discipline by exposing misbehaving banks to runs, and thus help them increase external financing. Normally, banks finance themselves with a mix of equity and deposits that maximizes discipline, but ensures that they always remain solvent. But when growth prospects become sufficiently strong, worsening agency problems induce banks to intensify deposit financing, which enables a boom in credit, asset prices, and investment. If the anticipated growth fails to materialise, however, the excessive deposit financing leads to a systemic banking crisis. |
Date: | 2022–12–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1027&r=fdg |
By: | Marcello D'Amato (University of Naples Suor Orsola Benincasa, CSEF and CELPE.); Christian Di Pietro (University of Napoli Parthenope and CELPE.); Marco M. Sorge (Università di Salerno, University of Göttingen, and CSEF-DISES) |
Abstract: | We study a model of wealth accumulation in altruistic lineages, in which households face uninsurable risk, investment indivisibilities and credit market imperfections. A thick upper tail of the stationary distribution of wealth is shown to emerge as a robust prediction, irrespective of (i) the presence of multidimensional (wealth and ability) heterogeneity and non-convexities in human capital formation, and (ii) the nature of parental bequest motives (joy-of-giving vs. paternalism). Additionally, (iii) we identify conditions under which the unique, ergodic wealth distribution exhibits a mass point at the bottom of its support, where bequest incentives are inactive and social mobility can only occur via occupational upgrading within lineages. Our interest in the features of the left tail motivates the exploration of the effects of various frictions and fiscal measures on intergenerational wealth transmission and the persistence of inequality. We show that tax policies (e.g. capital income taxation) targeting top wealth inequality can dilate expected residence time of lineages in the lower states of the wealth space, providing a strong case for redistributive policies that favour access to education for the less wealthy. |
Keywords: | Wealth distribution, Wealth inequality, Capital income risk, Credit market imperfections, Educational investment. |
JEL: | D31 H20 I24 |
Date: | 2023–11–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:691&r=fdg |
By: | Jean-Baptiste Michau (Ecole Polytechnique, France); Yoshiyasu Ono (Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Japan); Matthias Schlegl (Sophia University, Japan) |
Abstract: | What are the consequences of the preference for wealth for the accumulation of capital and for the dynamics of wealth inequality? Assuming that wealth per se is a luxury good, inequality tends to rise whenever the interest rate is larger than the economic growth rate. This induces the economy to converge towards an equilibrium with extreme wealth inequality, where the capital stock is equal to the golden rule level. Far from immiseration, this equilibrium results in high wages and in the golden rule level consumption for ordinary households. We then introduce shocks to the preference for wealth and show that progressive wealth taxation prevents wealth from being held by people with high saving rates. This permanently reduces the capital stock, which is detrimental to the welfare of future generation of workers. This also raises the interest rate, to the benefit of the property-owning upper-middle class. By contrast, a progressive consumption tax successfully and persistently redistributes welfare from the very rich to the poor. |
Keywords: | Capital accumulation, Progressive wealth tax, Wealth inequality, Wealth preference |
JEL: | D31 E21 E22 H20 |
Date: | 2023–11–15 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2023-11&r=fdg |
By: | Thilo N. H. Albers (HU Berlin); Felix Kersting (HU Berlin); Timo Stieglitz (HU Berlin) |
Abstract: | How does revolutionary technological change impact wealth inequality? We turn to the mother of all technological shocks–the Industrial Revolution–and analyze its role for wealth concentration both empirically and theoretically. Based on a novel dataset on wealth shares at the level of Prussian counties, we provide causal evidence on the positive effect of industrialization on the top percentile's wealth share and the inequality among top fortunes. We show that this relationship between industrialization, wealth concentration, and tail fattening is consistent with both cross-country data on national wealth distributions and with a new individual-level dataset of Prussian millionaires. We disentangle the mechanisms underlying the observed wealth concentration and tail fattening by introducing a dynamic two-sector structure into an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous returns to capital. In particular, we study the role of sector-specific scale dependence, i.e. the positive correlation of rates of return and wealth in industry, and dynastic type dependence in returns, i.e., the gradual one-directional transition of wealth-holders from the low-return traditional to the high-return industrial sector. The simulations suggest that the combination of these two features explains about half of the total increase of the top-1% share, while the other half resulted from the general increase and higher dispersion of returns induced by the emerging industrial sector. |
Keywords: | rates of return; wealth inequality; industrialization; technology; simulation; |
JEL: | D31 E21 N13 O14 |
Date: | 2023–11–22 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:462&r=fdg |
By: | Giacomo Gabbuti; Salvatore Morelli |
Abstract: | Despite its relevance in 19th-century economics, wealth -its accumulation, composition, and distribution- has largely been neglected in Italian economic history. Filling this gap, we show that between the late 19th and mid-20th centuries, Italy presented a historically high value of total private wealth but had relatively small relevance in total bequests flows in proportion to national income. Then, we present novel estimates of wealth concentration between 1863 and 1914, combining national tabulations of inheritance tax records and microdata archives for Milan and Naples. During this period, wealth concentration in Italy was in line with the highest levels ever recorded since the late Middle Ages. Contrary to the evidence of declining income inequality in the period -traditionally considered the industrial 'take-off' phase of Italy- we find no clear signs of trends in wealth concentration or structural changes in wealth composition. This picture is confirmed and enriched by novel findings about wealth concentration at provincial and regional levels in the early 20th century. We show a great deal of heterogeneity beyond national aggregates but find no evidence of the classic North-South divide when looking at concentration. Likewise, we find no clear link between concentration levels and asset composition or economic development. Although contemporary inequality is much lower than early 20th-century figures, the 'real' wealth of present 'millionaires' seems much higher than that of historically rich individuals. Overall, the paper lays the basis for a very long-run view of wealth in Italy and reconsiders the impact of its industrialization at the end of the Liberal period. |
Keywords: | inequality; inheritance; wealth; Liberal Italy; Southern Question |
Date: | 2023–11–29 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2023/43&r=fdg |
By: | Maciej Stefański |
Abstract: | This paper extends the Laubach-Williams (2003) framework, which is widely used to estimate the natural rate of interest, to make it more suitable for studying small open economies. The model is augmented with consumer inflation expectations, foreign output gap, the exchange rate, energy prices and a lending spread. It also uses survey data to improve the accuracy of output gap and potential growth estimates. This model is subsequently applied to CEE countries (Poland, Czechia and Hungary) and the euro area. The natural interest rate is found to be relatively volatile and pro-cyclical; it fell following the global financial crisis, but rebounded in recent years; however, while it remains lower than before the crisis, it is positive for all analysed economies. The model gives more precise and robust estimates than the standard Laubach-Williams framework, but ex-post revisions remain substantial. |
Keywords: | natural interest rate, small open economy, CEE, Kalman filter |
JEL: | E43 E52 C32 |
Date: | 2023–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2023093&r=fdg |
By: | António Afonso; José Alves; Sofia Monteiro |
Abstract: | We assess the impact of geopolitical risk and world uncertainty on the sovereign debt risk of 26 European Economies during the period 1984-2022, through the implementation of OLS-Fixed Effects regressions and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). We find that geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty in border countries contribute to the rise of European country’s sovereign risk as measured by 5- and 10-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and bond returns. Moreover, this interconnection is more pronounced during turbulent times such as the subprime crisis. Lastly, we found that geopolitical tensions in other country’ groups such as South America and Asia have a significant impact on the government risks of European countries. |
Keywords: | FGeopolitical Risk; World Uncertainty; Political Tensions; Sovereign Risk; European Economy; GMM; Subprime crisis |
JEL: | C23 E44 G32 H63 |
Date: | 2023–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03002023&r=fdg |
By: | HISGUIMA DASSIDI Crépin |
Abstract: | This study analyses the effect of fiscal rules on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in developing countries. Using a sample of 78 countries, we use the entropy balancing method to analyze the causal effect of rule adoption on FDI. Two hypotheses are tested in this study. The first one states that adopting fiscal rules increases FDI, and the second one is related to the ability of different types of rules to attract more investments. First, the robust results show that adopting fiscal rules increases FDI. The ratio of the public deficit to GDP, the rating of long-term sovereign debt in foreign currency, and the ratio of short-term external debt outstanding are the transmission channels through which fiscal rules affect FDI. The effect of the rules is amplified in the presence of a high level of business climate, economic performance, and better structuring of the agricultural and industrial sectors. On the other hand, this effect is attenuated in the presence of mineral rents and the economy’s high real interest rate. |
Keywords: | Fiscal rules, Foreign Direct Investment, fiscal policy |
JEL: | C33 E62 F21 |
Date: | 2023–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp02992023&r=fdg |
By: | Tihana Škrinjarić (Bank of England, United Kingdom) |
Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on macroprudential stance assessment in two ways. Firstly, it gives a comprehensive review of related literature to see the current directions research and policy practice, alongside the problems. Secondly, it empirically evaluates different aspects and issues when assessing the macroprudential stance. The empirical part of the paper focuses on country that has a fairly active macroprudential policy to establish the initial framework for assessing the effectiveness of macroprudential policy in Croatia. Results show that somewhat different results could be obtained based on variable definition and selection. This means that measuring macroprudential stance is difficult, as it depends on the definition of the macroprudential policy variable, selection of other important variables in the analysis, as well as other methodological factors. |
Keywords: | systemic risk, macroprudential policy, financial stability, financial conditions, quantile regression, policy assessment, macroprudential stance, Q-VAR, growth at risk |
JEL: | E32 E44 E58 G01 G28 C22 |
Date: | 2023–11–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hnb:wpaper:72&r=fdg |
By: | Malgorzata OLSZAK (Wydzial Zarzadzania, Uniwersytet Warszawski); Christophe J. GODLEWSKI (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg); Iwona KOWALSKA (Uniwersytet Warszawski); Agnieszka WYSOCKA (Uniwersytet Warszawski) |
Keywords: | net interest margin, macroprudential policy instruments, credit risk |
JEL: | E44 E58 G21 G28 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lar:wpaper:2023-05&r=fdg |
By: | Been-Lon Chen (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan); Zheng-Ze Lai (National Chengchi University); Shian-Yu Liao (Fu Jen Catholic University) |
Keywords: | land prices, housing demand shocks, CES preferences, collateral constraints |
JEL: | E3 E5 |
Date: | 2023–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sin:wpaper:23-a005&r=fdg |
By: | Adame Espinosa Francisco |
Abstract: | This work is based on a new Keynesian theoretical model for an advanced economy, which incorporates overlapping generations to analyze a channel through which fluctuations in household financial wealth influence aggregate demand. The optimal monetary policy, corresponding to that of a central planner maximizing households' welfare, aims to mitigate financial fluctuations while simultaneously reducing variability in inflation and the output gap. The model is calibrated for the United States and reproduces the effect of variations in the price of financial assets on aggregate demand. The results show, first, that in the presence of productivity, financial, and demand shocks, optimal monetary policy significantly improves aggregate welfare by stabilizing financial fluctuations that impact households' wealth. Secondly, in the face of productivity and financial shocks, an augmented monetary rule responding explicitly to fluctuations in the price of financial assets, in addition to inflation and output gaps, can reproduce the welfare achieved under optimal monetary policy. However, this is not the case for demand shocks. |
Keywords: | Monetary Policy;Monetary Rules;Overlapping Generations |
JEL: | E21 E44 E52 E58 |
Date: | 2023–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2023-14&r=fdg |
By: | Althanns, Markus; Gersbach, Hans |
JEL: | E42 E50 E51 E52 E58 G21 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc23:277597&r=fdg |
By: | Mohammadreza Mahmoudi |
Abstract: | This study investigates the influence of monetary policy and monetary policy uncertainties on Bitcoin returns, utilizing monthly data of BTC, and MPU from July 2010 to August 2023, and employing the Markov Switching Means VAR (MSM-VAR) method. The findings reveal that Bitcoin returns can be categorized into two distinct regimes: 1) regime 1 with low volatility, and 2) regime 2 with high volatility. In both regimes, an increase in MPU leads to a decline in Bitcoin returns: -0.028 in regime 1 and -0.44 in regime 2. This indicates that monetary policy uncertainty exerts a negative influence on Bitcoin returns during both downturns and upswings. Furthermore, the study explores Bitcoin's sensitivity to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions. |
Date: | 2023–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2311.10739&r=fdg |
By: | Darren Aiello; Scott R. Baker; Tetyana Balyuk; Marco Di Maggio; Mark J. Johnson; Jason D. Kotter |
Abstract: | We provide a first look into the drivers of household cryptocurrency investing. Analyzing consumer transaction data for millions of U.S. households, we find that, except for high income early adopters, cryptocurrency investors resemble the general population. These investors span all income levels, with most dollars coming from high-income individuals, similar to equity investors. High past crypto returns and personal income shocks lead to increased cryptocurrency investments. Higher household-level inflation expectations also correlate with greater crypto investments, aligning with hedging motives. For most U.S. households, cryptocurrencies are treated like traditional assets. |
JEL: | E31 E42 G11 G23 G51 |
Date: | 2023–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31856&r=fdg |
By: | Adrien d'Avernas; Andrea L. Eisfeldt; Can Huang; Richard Stanton; Nancy Wallace |
Abstract: | The deposit business differs at large versus small banks. We provide a parsimonious model and extensive empirical evidence supporting the idea that much of the variation in deposit-pricing behavior between large and small banks reflects differences in "preferences and technologies." Large banks offer superior liquidity services but lower deposit rates, and locate where customers value their services. In addition to receiving a lower level of deposit rates on average, customers of large banks exhibit lower demand elasticities with respect to deposit rate spreads. As a result, despite the fact that the locations of large-bank branches have demographics typically associated with greater financial sophistication, large-bank customers earn lower average deposit rates. Our explanation for deposit pricing behavior challenges the idea that deposit pricing is mainly driven by pricing power derived from the large observed degree of concentration in the banking industry. |
JEL: | E0 E40 E44 G0 G2 G21 G28 |
Date: | 2023–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31865&r=fdg |
By: | Kaffo Fotio, Herve; Nchofoung, Tii; Asongu, Simplice |
Abstract: | Despite growing attention on the role of renewable energy in promoting economic growth and environmental sustainability, its adoption rate remains uncomfortably low, especially in developing countries. This study attempts to explore the ways to extend the installed capacity of renewable energy in 16 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1980-2017. The results from panel cointegration econometric techniques suggest that policies to enhance financial integration should increase the installed capacity of renewable energy in SSA, though the beneficial effect is only statistically significant in the long run. This effect holds, although disproportionately when the financial integration index is disaggregated into its de facto and de jure aspects. Moreover, the quantile regression analysis reveals that the effect of financial integration on renewable energy capacity is positive but heterogeneous across the conditional distribution of renewable energy capacity. However, the positive effect of financial integration is not enough to ensure the diversification of the energy mix, measured as the share of renewable installed capacity in the total installed capacity. The results show that economic growth is positively linked to renewable energy generation capacity while financial development is negatively associated with renewable energy production. Overall, these findings suggest that policies to increase the openness to foreign capitals are welcomed as far as renewable energy generation is concerned. |
Keywords: | Financial integration, Renewable energy, Sub-Saharan Africa, Cointegration |
JEL: | E0 O1 |
Date: | 2022–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119063&r=fdg |