nep-fdg New Economics Papers
on Financial Development and Growth
Issue of 2023‒07‒24
23 papers chosen by
Georg Man

  1. Financial development, taxation and economic growth in sub-sahara africa By Ekpeyong, Paul; Adewoyin, David
  2. Damaged Collateral and Firm-Level Finance: Evidence from Russia's War in Ukraine By Shpak, Solomiya; Earle, John S.; Gehlbach, Scott; Panga, Mariia
  3. Credit Supply or Demand? The Changing Role of Structural Market Forces in Bank Lending By Patrik Kupkovic
  4. Productivity, Inputs Misallocation, and the Financial Crisis By Davide Luparello
  5. How Heterogeneous Beliefs Trigger Financial Crises By Florian Schuster; Marco Wysietzki; Jonas Zdrzalek
  6. Fear the Walking Dead? Zombie Firms in the Euro Area and Their Effect on Healthy Firms’ Credit Conditions By Havemeister, Lea Katharina; Horn, Kristian
  7. Monetary and Macroprudential Policy and Welfare in an Estimated Four-Agent New Keynesian Model By George J. Bratsiotis; Kasun D. Pathirage
  8. Overborrowing, Underborrowing, and Macroprudential Policy By Fernando Arce; Julien Bengui; Javier Bianchi
  9. The transmission of macroprudential policy in the tails: evidence from a narrative approach By Fernández-Gallardo, Álvaro; Lloyd, Simon; Manuel, Ed
  10. Will China’s new financial regulatory reform be enough to meet the challenges? By Martin Chorzempa; Nicolas Véron
  11. Structural transformation and sources of growth in Turkey By Ahmet Ihsan Kaya; Cumhur Çiçekçi
  12. Statistical Overview and Empirical Literature on Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries WP326 By Edouard Mien
  13. Mustering the private sector for development and climate in the Global South. Is it realistic? WP323 By Philippe Le Houérou; Hans Peter Lankes
  14. Diversification and fragmentation of public financing for development WP321 By Alain Le Roy; Jean-Michel Severino
  15. Millions for billions: Accelerating African entrepreneurial emergence for accelerated, sustainable and job-rich growth WP325 By Jean-Michel Severino
  16. Local Currency Bond Market Development and Currency Stability amid Market Turmoil By Kim, Cheonkoo; Park, Donghyun; Park, Jungsoo; Tian, Shu
  17. Superior Predictability of American Factors of the Dollar/Won Real Exchange Rate By Sarthak Behera; Hyeongwoo Kim; Soohyon Kim
  18. International Reserve Accumulation: Balancing Private Inflows with Public Outflows By Bada Han; Dongwook Kim; Youngjin Yun
  19. Public spending, currency mismatch and financial frictions By Marie-Pierre Hory; Grégory Levieuge; Daria Onori
  20. Original Sin: Fiscal Rules and Government Debt in Foreign Currency in Developing Countries By Ablam Estel Apeti; Bao-We-Wal Bambe; Jean-Louis Combes; Eyah Denise Edoh
  21. Financial services trade restrictions and lending from an international financial centre By Lloyd, Simon; Reinhardt, Dennis; Sowerbutts , Rhiannon
  22. Revisiting the monetary transmission mechanism through an industry‑level differential approach By Choi, Sangyup; Willens, Tim; Yoo, Seung Yong
  23. Finance and Climate Resilience: Evidence from the long 1950s US Drought By Raghuram Rajan; Rodney Ramcharan

  1. By: Ekpeyong, Paul; Adewoyin, David
    Abstract: This study investigates the correlation between tax policies, financial development, and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The research sample comprises 12 countries from West Africa, Southern Africa, and East Africa, spanning the years 2000 to 2019. The selected countries include Nigeria, Senegal, Mali, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Ghana, South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Kenya, and Tanzania. To analyze the data, the study utilizes the pooled mean group (PMG) or mean group auto-regressive distributed lag (MG-ARDL) estimation method. The findings indicate that private sector credit to GDP and foreign direct investment significantly drive economic growth, while the variables of liquidity, inflation, population, and taxes do not exert a significant impact on economic growth. Moreover, the effectiveness of these policies varies across countries, suggesting that some nations benefit more from tax policies, while others benefit more from financial development. It should be noted that the variations in economic structures and institutional frameworks among the countries in the panel data may influence the relationship between the variables. Based on the study's results, policymakers should prioritize a set of policies to promote economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. These policies include measures to enhance financial development, improve taxation policies, foster public investment, address macroeconomic imbalances, strengthen institutional quality, and promote regional integration. The effective implementation and ongoing monitoring of these policies are crucial for achieving the desired impact and sustainable development in the region.
    Keywords: Tax policy, financial development, Economic growth, Sub Saharan Africa, pooled mean, ARDL.
    JEL: H2 H21 H24 O4 O47
    Date: 2023–06–20
  2. By: Shpak, Solomiya; Earle, John S.; Gehlbach, Scott; Panga, Mariia
    Abstract: How much has Russia's war in Ukraine damaged the collateral of Ukrainian firms, and how much damage has that caused the Ukrainian financial system? We address this question using unusually rich high-frequency supervisory data of Ukrainian banks combined with a survey of banks on the location and condition of corporate borrowers' collateral between February and November 2022. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in collateral value resulting from damage to collateral, we find that a 10-percent reduction in the collateral-loan ratio lowers the probability of getting any new loan by nearly eight percentage points; new lending falls by over two percentage points. Our results additionally imply that the same reduction in collateral value raises default rates and banks' assessment of firms' probability of default by approximately eight and four percentage points, respectively. The results imply that, in the absence of sufficient aid to repair the damage, Ukraine may experience reduced investment and lower economic growth in the future.
    Date: 2023–06–28
  3. By: Patrik Kupkovic (National Bank of Slovakia)
    Abstract: The Global Financial Crisis, the European Debt Crisis, and the recent COVID-19 Crisis have repeatedly demonstrated that disruptions in credit markets can have serious macroeconomic consequences. This paper aims to assess the structural drivers of the NFCs bank lending market, as bank lending dominates the credit markets in the euro area, and to determine its macroeconomic consequences. To study these effects, we use structural VAR methodology with a modified identification scheme and modified variable selection compared to what is usually found in the literature. As an empirical illustration, we analyze the importance of the bank lending market in a small, open and bank-based euro area economy - Slovakia. The results show that loan demand shocks (loans demanded by firms) are at least as important as credit supply shocks (loans supplied by banks) in the lending market and that this importance changes over the cycle. These findings have important policy implications, as responding to these shocks may require different policy measures. Contributions to the literature are (i) new empirical evidence on the macroeconomic importance of loan demand shocks compared to credit supply shocks and (ii) new country-specific modification of structural VAR methodology.
    JEL: C32 E51 G01
    Date: 2023–06
  4. By: Davide Luparello
    Abstract: This paper reevaluates the conventional approach to quantifying within-industry resource misallocation, typically measured by the dispersion of an input marginal product. My findings suggest that this statistic incorporates inherent productivity heterogeneity and idiosyncratic productivity shocks, irrespective of the input under scrutiny. Using balance sheet data from American and European manufacturing firms, I show that total factor productivity (TFP) volatility accounts for 7% of the variance in the marginal product of capital, 9% for labor, and 10% for material inputs. Consequently, this index, taken at face value, fails to identify policy-induced misallocation for any production input. To overcome this limitation, I propose a comparative analysis strategy driven by an identified policy variation. This approach allows the researcher to assess induced misallocation in relative terms whilst controlling for differences in TFP volatility. I show that the financial crisis had an uneven impact on the within-industry dispersion of the marginal product of capital across European nations, reflecting their differing financial sector maturity and suggesting the existence of financial misallocative frictions. The crisis did not affect the dispersion of the marginal product for other inputs.
    Date: 2023–06
  5. By: Florian Schuster (University of Cologne and ECONtribute); Marco Wysietzki (University of Cologne and ECONtribute); Jonas Zdrzalek (University of Cologne and ECONtribute)
    Abstract: We present a theoretical framework to characterize how financial market participants contribute to systemic risk, allowing us to derive optimal corrective policy interventions. To that end, we embed belief heterogeneity in a model of frictional financial markets. We document the asymmetry that, by their behavior, relatively more optimistic agents contribute more strongly to financial distress than more pessimistic agents do. We further show that financial distress is generally more likely in an economy whose agents hold heterogeneous rather than homogeneous beliefs. Based on these findings, we propose a system of non-linear Pigouvian taxes as the optimal corrective policy, which proves to generate considerable welfare gains over the linear policy advocated by former studies.
    Keywords: Financial amplification, pecuniary externalities, collateral constraint, financial crisis, belief heterogeneity, macroprudential policy
    JEL: D84 E44 G28 H23
    Date: 2023–06
  6. By: Havemeister, Lea Katharina; Horn, Kristian
    Abstract: Zombie firms may adversely impact healthy firms through several transmission channels. Besides real spillover effects on productivity or investment, zombies may also cause negative financial spillover effects, where zombies receive credit at more favourable conditions than healthy firms. We investigate characteristics of zombie firms in the euro area and whether they cause spillovers on healthy firms’ credit conditions, focusing on two variables: new credit and interest rates. Contrary to existing findings, our results indicate that zombie firms pay higher interest rates and receive less new credit than healthy firms. The spillover effect of zombie firms on healthy firms’ new credit is not significant. For interest rates, the spillover effect is even reversed: Zombie existence significantly lowers healthy firms’ interest rates. Zombie firms across the euro area are smaller, less profitable, and more leveraged with lower credit quality than healthy firms. Yet, they do not seem to pose significant negative externalities on the credit conditions of healthy firms. Novel loan-by-loan data from the European credit registry (AnaCredit) allows our analysis to be over a broad set of countries and firms, on a new level of granularity. This may explain the divergence of our findings from the existing literature. JEL Classification: E43, E44, E51, G21, G32
    Keywords: financial spillovers, financial stability, interest rates, new credit, zombie firms
    Date: 2023–07
  7. By: George J. Bratsiotis; Kasun D. Pathirage
    Abstract: We examine the social and agent-specific welfare effects of monetary and macroprudential policy in a four-agent estimated macroeconomic model, consisting of 'banked simple households', 'underbanked simple households', 'firm owners', and 'bank owners'. Optimal capital requirement and loan loss provisions ratios, are shown to improve all agent-specific and social welfare, but imply smaller gains for simple households and firm owners that rely on credit. Countercyclical capital buffers support firm owners and bank owners, with smaller gains for the two simple households. Countercyclical loan loss provisions improve social welfare only for specific shocks and benefit the 'simple underbanked household' and 'firm-owners' at the expense of 'bank-owners' and 'banked simple households'. Coordination between monetary and macroprudential policies yields higher social welfare than no coordination.
    Keywords: monetary policy; macroprudential policy; financial frictions; risk of default; welfare
    JEL: E31 E32 E44 E52 E58 G28
    Date: 2023–06
  8. By: Fernando Arce; Julien Bengui; Javier Bianchi
    Abstract: In this paper, we revisit the scope for macroprudential policy in production economies with pecuniary externalities and collateral constraints. We study competitive equilibria and constrained-efficient equilibria and examine the extent to which the gap between the two depends on the production structure and the policy instruments available to the planner. We argue that macroprudential policy is desirable regardless of whether the competitive equilibrium features more or less borrowing than the constrained-efficient equilibrium. In our quantitative analysis, macroprudential taxes on borrowing turn out to be larger when the government has access to ex-post stabilization policies.
    Keywords: Macroprudential Policy; Over-borrowing; Under-borrowing
    JEL: E58 F31 F32 F34
    Date: 2023–05
  9. By: Fernández-Gallardo, Álvaro (Universidad Alicante); Lloyd, Simon (Bank of England); Manuel, Ed (Bank of England)
    Abstract: We estimate the causal effects of macroprudential policies on the entire distribution of GDP growth by incorporating a narrative-identification strategy within a quantile-regression framework. Exploiting a data set covering a range of macroprudential policy actions across advanced European economies, we identify unanticipated and exogenous macroprudential policy ‘shocks’ and employ them within a quantile-regression setup. While macroprudential policy has near-zero effects on the centre of the GDP-growth distribution, we find that tighter macroprudential policy brings benefits by reducing the variance of future GDP growth, significantly and robustly boosting the left tail while simultaneously reducing the right. Assessing a range of potential channels through which these effects could materialise, we find that macroprudential policy operates through opposing tails of GDP and credit. Tighter macroprudential policy reduces the right tail of the future credit-growth distribution (both household and corporate) which, in turn, is particularly important for mitigating the left tail of GDP growth (ie, GDP-at-risk).
    Keywords: Growth-at-risk; macroprudential policy; narrative identification; quantile local projections
    JEL: E32 E58 G28
    Date: 2023–06–16
  10. By: Martin Chorzempa; Nicolas Véron
    Abstract: This paper aims to inform the discussion in relation to China with accounts of experiences in large and complex financial sectors.
    Date: 2023–03
  11. By: Ahmet Ihsan Kaya; Cumhur Çiçekçi
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand side of structural transformation in Turkey. Using the GGDC/UNU-WIDER Economic Transformation Database, we find that labour productivity improvements explain more than half of economic growth in the period 1980-2021. This is mainly thanks to within-sector productivity improvements, while the contribution of structural change declines over time. Time-series regression analysis shows that structural change is driven by per capita income growth and financial openness but is halted by trade integration.
    Keywords: Labour productivity, Structural transformation, Economic growth, Input–output, Economic linkages
    Date: 2023
  12. By: Edouard Mien (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International)
    Abstract: This note aims to provide an overview of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in developing countries. First, we present the recent trends of global FDI flows, and identify the main hosting areas as well as the variables promoting FDI inflows. Then, we briefly describe the empirical literature on the economic impacts of FDI on recipient countries. Finally, we present some recent changes in public policies implemented in developing countries aiming at attracting FDI inflows.
    Date: 2023–05–17
  13. By: Philippe Le Houérou (AFD - Agence française de développement, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Hans Peter Lankes (Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment - LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science)
    Abstract: The 2015 Addis Ababa "Billions to Trillions" initiative called for stepped-up private sector investments and financial flows in developing countries. But instead of closing, the "trillion" dollar gap between development and climate needs, and the actual flows continues to widen. Was it a fairy tale? What is certain is that the current operating model of the aid agencies and the development finance institutions, is not helping to crowd-in private flows at the necessary scale. The paper reviews the evidence and highlights what needs to change and how to do it.
    Date: 2023–05–07
  14. By: Alain Le Roy; Jean-Michel Severino (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International)
    Abstract: The fragmentation of public financing flows for developing countries appears to be an essential characteristic of the international financial architecture. This document explores the reasons for the proliferation of various institutions and funds and analyses its consequences in terms of efficiency, which are not all positive. After listing the various initiatives intended to reduce the harmful effects of the fragmentation of funding, such as the reduction in the number of funds, the search for greater transparency, a reform of multilateral institutions, the coordination of donors, it proposes the creation of a group of analysis, sharing, construction of common thought, fed by «scientific» information and in-depth comparative evaluation, which would bring together contributors and recipients. The possible locations of this instance are discussed.
    Date: 2023–04–03
  15. By: Jean-Michel Severino (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, I&P - Investisseurs et Partenaires, UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: The article below argues for the need to strongly accelerate public involvement in support of entrepreneurial emergence in poor and fragile countries. After mentioning the economic and employment issue, it explains how this priority has long disappeared from the international agenda as well as from domestic public policies, particularly in Africa. Efforts to promote the private sector have in practice focused on foreign direct investment and the largest companies. Middle- and emerging income countries, and a limited number of sectors and financial instruments, such as debt, have been valued. The article evokes the gradual change of perception on this subject from the beginning of the century and the emergence of new so- called impact actors focused particularly on SMEs in poor countries, accompanied by some public private sector financing institutions (DFIs), development agencies or foundations.
    Date: 2023–06–09
  16. By: Kim, Cheonkoo (Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry); Park, Donghyun (Asian Development Bank); Park, Jungsoo (Sogang University); Tian, Shu (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: This study investigates how development of the local currency (LCY) bond market brings stability in the financial market. The analysis is based on annual economy panel data set for 1989–2020. The main findings are as follows. First, exchange rate volatility is lower during crisis periods if an economy has a more developed LCY bond market. Second, a greater share of LCY bonds and a greater share of bonds with long-term maturities have a stabilizing effect on exchange rate volatility during normal times. Lastly, a developed LCY bond market can serve as a buffer against monetary policy shocks emanating from the United States. The empirical evidence in this study implies that emerging economies need to consider designing policies to bolster development of LCY bond markets.
    Keywords: local currency bond market; exchange rate volatility; currency mismatch; maturity mismatch; financial crisis
    JEL: E22 G31
    Date: 2023–07–03
  17. By: Sarthak Behera; Hyeongwoo Kim; Soohyon Kim
    Abstract: This paper examines the asymmetric out-of-sample predictability of macroeconomic variables for the real exchange rate between the United States and Korea. While conventional models suggest that the bilateral real exchange rate is driven by the relative economic performance of the two countries, our research demonstrates the superior predictive power of our factor-augmented forecasting models only when factors are obtained from U.S. economic variables, whereas the inclusion of Korean factors fails to enhance predictability and behaves more like noise variables. Our models exhibit particularly strong performance at longer horizons when incorporating American real activity factors, while American nominal/financial market factors contribute to improved short-term prediction accuracy. We attribute the remarkable predictability of American factors to the significant cross-correlations observed among bilateral real exchange rates vis-Ã -vis the U.S. dollar, which suggests a limited influence of idiosyncratic factors specific to small countries. Moreover, we assess our factor-augmented forecasting models by incorporating proposition-based factors instead of macro factors. While macro factors generally exhibit superior performance, it is worth noting that the uncovered interest parity (UIP)-based global factors, with the dollar as the numéraire, consistently demonstrate strong overall performance. On the other hand, the purchasing power parity (PPP) and real uncovered interest parity (RIRP) factors have a limited role in forecasting the dollar/won real exchange rate.
    Keywords: Dollar/Won Real Exchange Rate; Asymmetric Predictability; Principal Component Analysis; Partial Least Squares; LASSO; Out-of-Sample Forecast
    JEL: C38 C53 C55 F31 G17
    Date: 2023–06
  18. By: Bada Han (Bank of Korea); Dongwook Kim (Bank of Korea); Youngjin Yun (Inha University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the reasons behind international reserve accumulation in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs). We rationalize the view held among policymakers in EMEs that reserve accumulation is necessary to counteract the negative effects of unwanted capital inflows. First, we empirically show that EMEs do accumulate reserves in response to global push factor-driven capital inflows, particularly in the form of direct investment. In addition, EMEs with restrictions on residents' investment abroad or with less developed financial institutions accumulate higher levels of reserves. Next, we introduce a theoretical model with direct investment inflows to explain the empirical findings. In the face of a capital flow bonanza, it is optimal for EMEs to invest abroad to smooth consumption. However, various frictions hinder residents' overseas investments or make the investments socially inefficient. In such cases, the public sector accumulates international reserves to supplement the insufficient private outflows or replace the inefficient private outflows. Reserve accumulation becomes an essential tool for managing capital inflows in the presence of restrictions on private outflows.
    Keywords: international reserves, sudden stops, financial openness
    JEL: E60 E61 F30 F38 G01
  19. By: Marie-Pierre Hory (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours); Grégory Levieuge (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours); Daria Onori (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours)
    Date: 2021–09
  20. By: Ablam Estel Apeti (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Bao-We-Wal Bambe (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Jean-Louis Combes (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Eyah Denise Edoh (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: Most developing economies borrow abroad in foreign currency, which exposes them to the problem of "original sin." Although the literature on the issue is relatively extensive, little is said about the role of fiscal frameworks such as fiscal rules in controlling original sin. Hence, using a panel of 59 developing countries over the period 1990-2020 and applying the entropy balancing method, we find that fiscal rules reduce government debt in foreign currency, and that the effects are statistically and economically significant and robust. In addition, the strengthening of the rule, better fiscal discipline prior to the adoption of the reform, financial development, financial openness, flexibility of the exchange rate regime, and sound institutions amplify the negative effect of fiscal rules on original sin.
    Keywords: Original sin, Developing countries, Entropy balancing
    Date: 2023–06–15
  21. By: Lloyd, Simon (Bank of England); Reinhardt, Dennis (Bank of England); Sowerbutts , Rhiannon (Bank of England)
    Abstract: This paper examines how international lending of UK-based banks is affected by services trade restrictions on commercial banks applied abroad. Exploiting heterogeneity in banks’ cross-border activities, we find evidence that banks without a local affiliate presence abroad cut back their non-bank lending to countries applying restrictions, and vice versa when restrictions are liberalised. On the other hand, banks with a local presence reduce their intragroup loans, but substitute for this by increasing direct cross-border lending to non-banks. These findings suggest that increasing services trade restrictiveness may lead global banks to reshape their business model for cross-border lending. Services trade restrictions that act on the intensive margin of lending, such as barriers to competition, appear to be the primary drivers of this substitution from ‘local’ to ‘global’ financial intermediation.
    Keywords: Services trade restrictions; commercial banking restrictions; cross-border bank lending; banks’ business models
    JEL: F13 F34 F42 G18 G21
    Date: 2023–04–21
  22. By: Choi, Sangyup (Yonsei University); Willens, Tim (Bank of England); Yoo, Seung Yong (Yonsei University)
    Abstract: We combine industry‑level data on output and prices with monetary policy shock estimates for 105 countries to analyse how the effects of monetary policy vary with industry characteristics. Next to being interesting in their own right, our findings are informative on the importance of various transmission mechanisms, as they are thought to vary systematically with the included characteristics. Results suggest that monetary policy has greater output effects in industries featuring assets that are more difficult to collateralise, consistent with the credit channel, followed by industries producing durables, as predicted by the interest rate channel. The credit channel is stronger during bad times as well as in countries with lower levels of financial development, in line with financial accelerator logic. We do not find support for the cost channel of monetary policy, nor for a channel running via exports. Our database (containing estimated monetary policy shocks for 177 countries) may be of independent interest to researchers.
    Keywords: Monetary policy transmission; industry growth; financial frictions; heterogeneity in transmission; monetary policy shocks
    JEL: E32 E52 F43 G20
    Date: 2023–05–26
  23. By: Raghuram Rajan; Rodney Ramcharan
    Abstract: We study how the availability of credit shapes adaptation to a climatic shock, specifically, the long 1950s US drought. We find that bank lending, net immigration, and population growth decline sharply in drought exposed areas with limited initial access to bank finance. In contrast, agricultural investment and long-run productivity increase more in drought-exposed areas when they have access to bank finance, even allowing some of these areas to leapfrog otherwise similar areas in the subsequent decades. We also find unequal access to finance can drive migration from drought-hit finance-poor communities to finance-rich communities. These results suggest that broadening access to finance can enable communities to adapt to large adverse climatic shocks and reduce emigration.
    JEL: G0 J0 Q0
    Date: 2023–06

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