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on Financial Development and Growth |
| By: | Cuong LE-VAN; Ngoc Sang Pham; Thi Kim Cuong Pham |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the nexus between foreign aid (in both forms: grant andloan), poverty trap, and economic development in a recipient country by using a Solowmodel with two new ingredients: a development loan and a fixed cost in the production process. The presence of this fixed cost generates a poverty trap. We show thatforeign aid may help the country to escape from the poverty trap and converge to astable steady-state in the long run, but only if (i) the country’s characteristics, such assaving rate, initial capital, governance quality, and productivity are good enough, (ii)the fixed cost is relatively low, and (iii) loan rule is generous enough. We also showthat our model with foreign aid has room for endogenous cycles, unlike the standardSolow model. |
| Keywords: | Development loan, economic dynamics, economic growth, foreign aid, grant, poverty trap |
| JEL: | O11 O19 O41 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2023-2&r=fdg |
| By: | Eristian Wibisono; ; |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic and microeconomic literature has raised the impact of FDI knowledge and technology spillovers in the host economy. However, there is still a research gap in addressing this topic in the knowledge economy. Based on a comprehensive literature review, this paper demonstrates the performance of FDI spillovers and their impact on the productivity of domestic firms in emerging and transition economies in Europe. Poland is the largest country in the Visegrad group but provides limited studies on FDI experience. The paper then shows the geographic distribution of FDI across Polish regions, where the western and eastern regions appear very different. There is a significant positive impact of FDI presence on the productivity of foreign-affiliated domestic firms. Unfortunately, the presence of FDI in these regions is not significant enough to induce knowledge and technology spillovers to improve firm productivity. The effectiveness of FDI knowledge and technology in boosting the productivity of the local economy may be worth questioning. Therefore, comparable spatial studies are encouraged to be conducted in future research with a more complete and robust data structure which is recognized as a limitation of this study. |
| Keywords: | FDI; knowledge and technology; spillovers; Visegrad; Poland; spatial dependencies |
| JEL: | B27 E22 O52 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2301&r=fdg |
| By: | Sangyup Choi (Yonsei University); Kimoon Jeong (Yonsei University); Jiseob Kim (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | What accounts for contrasting economic paths between core and periphery countries in the euro area? Unlike many studies focusing on fiscal problems, we highlight the interplay of bank mortgage lending standards and imbalances created by the common monetary policy framework. To illustrate the mechanism, we derive a country-specific monetary policy stance gap and estimate the panel VAR model of core and periphery countries, respectively. While the widening monetary policy stance gap—the accommodative stance of the ECB given individual economic conditions—induces a similar increase in the demand for mortgage credit in both regions, it is followed by sharply different responses of the supply side of mortgage credit: bank mortgage lending standards are relaxed (tightened) in periphery (core) countries, which can rationalize vastly different paths in mortgage credit, residential investment, and housing prices between the two Europes. In searching for the source of different bank lending behaviors, we find that banks in core countries, where macroprudential policies on mortgage credit are tightened and bank lending margin decreases, increase their cross-border lending to periphery countries, which could fuel excessive risk-taking in periphery countries. |
| Keywords: | Euro area; Mortgage credit; Monetary policy stance gap; Bank lending survey; Macroprudential policy; Cross-border banking flows; Panel VARs. |
| JEL: | E21 E32 E44 F52 G21 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2023rwp-209&r=fdg |
| By: | John Ammer; John H. Rogers; Gang Wang; Yang Yu |
| Abstract: | We study how professional fund managers' growth expectations affect the actions they take with respect to equity investment and in turn the effects on prices. Using novel data on China's mutual fund managers' growth expectations, we show that pessimistic managers decrease equity allocations and shift away from more-cyclical stocks. We identify a strong short-run causal effect of growth expectations on stock returns, despite statistically significant delays in price discovery from short-sale constraints. Finally, we find that an earnings-based measure of price informativeness is increasing in fund investment. |
| Keywords: | mutual fund managers; chinese financial markets; economic growth expectations; price informativeness; textual analysis |
| JEL: | D80 E66 G11 G12 G23 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1362&r=fdg |
| By: | Anil K Kashyap; Jeremy C. Stein |
| Abstract: | Recent research has found that monetary policy works in part by influencing the risk premiums on both traded financial-market securities and intermediated loans. Research has also shown that when risk premiums are compressed, there is an increased likelihood of a reversal that damages the credit-supply mechanism and the real economy. Together these effects create an intertemporal tradeoff for monetary policy, as stimulating the economy today can sow the seeds of a future downturn that might be difficult to offset. We introduce a simple model of this tradeoff and draw out its implications for the conduct of monetary policy. |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30751&r=fdg |
| By: | Aarti Singh (School of Economics, University of Sydney); Jacek Suda (Narodowy Bank Polski); Anastasia Zervou (Department of Economics, the University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | We study the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on the labor market of large and small firms in the United States. We uncover the following facts: (i) Expansionary monetary policy boosts employment and hiring growth in small firms more than in large firms; however, a monetary contraction shrinks small firms’ employment and hiring growth less than in large firms. As a result, monetary policy has a countervailing effect on the employment concentration in large firms. (ii) There is an asymmetry in the effects of monetary contractions versus expansions with respect to firms’ employment and hiring growth. Not accounting for such asymmetry leads to the fallacious conclusion that small firms respond more than large firms to monetary policy shocks. This asymmetry also reveals that contractionary monetary policy shocks have immediate effects on the labor market while the effects of expansionary shocks are slower to manifest.(iii) The response of employment is weaker than that of hiring, highlighting the importance of using labor market flows. (iv) The growth of earnings of new hires decreases similarly across large and small firms in contractions but reacts more for small firms in expansions. We use a heterogeneous firms model with a working capital constraint, an upward-sloping marginal cost curve, and a financial accelerator effect. We augment this model with the wage effect summarized in fact (iv) and demonstrate how the additional wage effect can explain the differential response of the hiring and employment growth of small and large firms of fact (i). |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous firms, financing constraints, labor market, monetary policy |
| JEL: | D22 E24 E52 J23 L25 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:355&r=fdg |
| By: | Takuma Kunieda (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University); Kazuo Nishimura (Kobe University and Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry) |
| Abstract: | To investigate the macroeconomic effects of capital account liberalization, we apply a dynamic general equilibrium model with two production sectors. In contrast to the literature on belief-driven sunspot fluctuations caused by production externalities, our model does not assume any production externalities. In our model, agents face ï¬ nancial constraints and production heterogeneity. The ï¬ nancial constraints and agents’ production heterogeneity are sources of dynamic inefficiency. Although indeterminacy of equilibrium and belief-driven sunspot fluctuations never occur in the closed economy, dynamic inefficiency combined with a negative foreign asset in the steady state produces indeterminacy in the small open economy if ï¬ nancial constraints are fully relaxed under the condition that the investment goods sector is more labor intensive than the consumption goods sector. |
| Keywords: | Two-sector growth model; small open economy; ï¬ nancial constraints; heterogeneous agents; dynamic inefficiency; indeterminacy. |
| JEL: | E32 F36 F43 O41 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:244&r=fdg |
| By: | Ozge Akinci; Gianluca Benigno; Serra Pelin; Jonathan Turek |
| Abstract: | In this paper we highlight a new channel through which dollar fluctuations can become a self-fulfilling pro-cyclical force. We call this mechanism “Imperial Circle” as it makes the dollar the dominant macroeconomic variable in the context of the current international monetary system. At the core of it, there is a fundamental asymmetry between the shrinking exposure of the “real” U.S. economy to global developments versus the growing global role of the U.S. dollar. Dollar appreciation leads to a decline in global economic activity, which in turn benefits, in relative terms, the dollar itself, reinforcing the initial appreciation and its effects. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models; global supply chains; dollar currency pricing; trade; spillover |
| JEL: | E32 E44 F41 |
| Date: | 2022–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:95424&r=fdg |
| By: | Valeria De Bonis (Università Sapienza di Roma - Dipartimento di Studi Giuridici, Filosofici ed Economici) |
| Abstract: | The application of the SGP fiscal criteria has evolved over time. This paper reviews the changing role of the debt benchmark in the light of Carlo Casarosa's analysis of the economic meaning of the public debt to GDP ratio. |
| Keywords: | SGP fiscal criteria, debt to GDP ratio, wealth to GDP ratio, EU governance; Italy. |
| JEL: | H63 H77 F45 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00057&r=fdg |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Mexico has a resilient financial system but a low level of financial inclusion. The financial system is smaller than in peer countries and is dominated by commercial banks that have had large capital and liquidity buffers for years. Despite these buffers and the high profitability in the banking sector, credit growth has been low due to both supply and demand factors, with banks targeting mainly the prime segments of the economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a limited impact on the financial system, reflecting a mix of resumption in mobility and support from global and domestic policies. |
| Date: | 2022–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/359&r=fdg |
| By: | Julien Grenet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Hans Grönqvist (Uppsala University, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Daniel Jahnson (Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | The Swedish banking crisis in the early 90s counts as one of the five most severe financial crises in history. We examine how firms more exposed to this event adjusted employment in the longrun and the mechanisms involved. Our analysis draws on matched employer-employee data containing the financial statements for a large sample of firms. Our difference-indifferences estimates show that firms with a greater pre-crisis debt burden experienced more difficulties in accessing external capital during the crisis compared to firms with lower baseline debts. This is consistent with the most exposed firms becoming financially constrained. More exposed firms exhibit stronger downward employment adjustments than less exposed firms, and the reductions are mainly concentrated among low-skilled workers. Employment in more exposed firms started to recover four years after the crisis and had fully recuperated about a decade later. These firms also temporarily saw a larger drop in both productivity and investment. We do not find a significant effect on the wage bill, and the estimates are precise enough to rule out even moderate effect sizes. |
| Keywords: | Financial Crisis, Matched Employer-Employee Data, Macroeconomic Shocks, Labor Demand |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03920377&r=fdg |
| By: | Ulrike Schaede (Full Professor, School of Global Strategy and Policy, University of California, San Diego (E-mail: uschaede@ucsd.edu)) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that Japan is experiencing an increase in " financialization" - a process of marketization where the primary focus in all transaction is on the immediate monetary value earned. Left unregulated, excessive financialization can erode the core architecture and health of an economy. Japan's financialization will be further accelerated by the interrelated forces of the digital transformation (DX), societal and employment system changes, and the need for corporate reinvention and repositioning. To showcase the difficulty of finding a balance between the positive discipline of the market and the dangers of excessive short-termism, this paper introduces Japan's emerging private equity (PE) market. Corporate need for a new market for spinouts and carve-outs meets global investors eager to find alternative investments. Together, they create new pressures for short-term financial results, even for companies not targeted by these investments, thus increasing financialization overall. The paper introduces recent U.S. proposals on regulating the PE industry to ensure long-term value creation while reining in financial schemes that are detrimental to the health of companies and the economy. As Japan shows signs of increasing financialization, it may warrant attention to the current discussion regarding the PE industry in the U.S. |
| Keywords: | Japan, financialization, marketization, private equity, digital transformation, corporate reorganization |
| JEL: | G30 L10 K20 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:22-e-18&r=fdg |
| By: | Christian Pradié (UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France, IRMÉCCEN - Institut de Recherche Médias, Cultures, Communication et Numérique - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Date: | 2022–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03746884&r=fdg |
| By: | Matthieu Darracq Paries (European Central Bank); Georg Muller (European Central Bank); Niki Papadopoulou (Central Bank of Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | We quantify the size of fiscal multipliers in an economy with sovereign and bank default risk. We build a DSGE model with financial frictions for the euro area in which the interplay of corporate, bank and sovereign solvency risk a?ects the transmission of government spending. Sovereign bonds carry a credit risk premium that depends on government indebtedness. The banking system is fragile through its direct and indirect exposure to sovereign risk and limited loss absorption capacity. Calibrating the model on sovereign and bank riskiness reminiscent of the euro area sovereign debt crisis period, we show that adverse financial channels may signifcantly depress the fiscal multiplier. The trade-o? for the fiscal authority, between the macroeconomic stabilization objective and solvency risks, continues to be relevant in the euro area. We also evaluate the scope for monetary and macro-prudential policy to mitigate the financial setbacks and help restore the e?ectiveness of fiscal stimulus. |
| Keywords: | DSGE models, fiscal stabilization, sovereign risk, sovereign-bank nexus |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2022-5&r=fdg |
| By: | Juin-Jen Chang (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan); Chun-Hung Kuo (Department of Economics, National Tsing Hua University); Hsieh-Yu Lin (Department of Economics, Tunghai University); Shu-Chun S. Yang (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan) |
| Abstract: | Since the mid-1980s, U.S. corporate tax cuts have become less expansionary and increasingly associated with rising share buybacks. Using dynamic general equilibrium models with corporate financial allocations, we show that buybacks render a corporate tax cut less expansionary. Simulations based on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act have the optimal buyback response much smaller than that observed. This implies that restricting buybacks is likely to enhance the expansionary effects of a corporate tax cut. Both shareholders and non-shareholders enjoy higher income from a corporate tax cut, but most of the income increases accrue to shareholders. Whether non-shareholders enjoy higher consumption de- pends on the fiscal adjustment mechanism. |
| Keywords: | corporate tax cuts, share buybacks, tax policy effects, fiscal policy effects, SVAR estimation |
| JEL: | E62 H25 H30 C32 D53 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sin:wpaper:22-a005&r=fdg |
| By: | Alraqeb Zeynep; Knaack Peter; Macaire Camille |
| Abstract: | The rise of financial technology (FinTech) in China over the past decade has changed the traditional financial landscape in the country. We provide evidence on the role of digital financial services in promoting self-employment. We construct an indicator of relative FinTech adoption at the provincial-level in China. We show that the digitalization of financial services at an aggregated level is associated with a higher share of self-employed individuals in the total population. In rural areas, coverage breadth of digitalized financial services drives the positive impact on the share of self-employment, while in urban areas, digitalized insurance services appear to be more influential. We also show that the shift to self-employment is not at the expense of employment in private firms in the country. <p> L'essor des technologies financières (FinTech) en Chine au cours de la dernière décennie a modifié le paysage financier traditionnel du pays. Nous étudions la relation entre l’adoption de ces services et la part de l’entreprenariat dans la population totale. Nous construisons un indicateur de l'adoption relative des FinTech au niveau provincial dans le pays, et montrons que la numérisation des services financiers est associée à une part plus élevée d’autoentrepreneurs dans la population totale. Dans les zones rurales, l'étendue de la couverture des services financiers numérisés est à l'origine de cet impact positif, tandis que dans les zones urbaines, les services d'assurance numérisés semblent avoir plus d'influence. Nous montrons également que le passage à l'emploi indépendant ne se fait pas au détriment de l'emploi au sein des entreprises privées dans le pays. |
| Keywords: | Fintech, Financial Inclusion, Digitalization, China, Entrepreneurship; Fintech, inclusion financière, digitalisation, Chine, entreprenariat |
| JEL: | G23 J21 O33 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:895&r=fdg |
| By: | Luca Mungo; Bartolucci Silvia; Laura Alessandretti |
| Abstract: | Since the introduction of Bitcoin in 2009, the dramatic and unsteady evolution of the cryptocurrency market has also been driven by large investments by traditional and cryptocurrency-focused hedge funds. Notwithstanding their critical role, our understanding of the relationship between institutional investments and the evolution of the cryptocurrency market has remained limited, also due to the lack of comprehensive data describing investments over time. In this study, we present a quantitative study of cryptocurrency institutional investments based on a dataset collected for 1324 currencies in the period between 2014 and 2022 from Crunchbase, one of the largest platforms gathering business information. We show that the evolution of the cryptocurrency market capitalization is highly correlated with the size of institutional investments, thus confirming their important role. Further, we find that the market is dominated by the presence of a group of prominent investors who tend to specialise by focusing on particular technologies. Finally, studying the co-investment network of currencies that share common investors, we show that assets with shared investors tend to be characterized by similar market behavior. Our work sheds light on the role played by institutional investors and provides a basis for further research on their influence in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2301.02027&r=fdg |
| By: | Bert Van Roosebeke (International Association of Deposit Insurers); Ryan Defina (International Association of Deposit Insurers) |
| Abstract: | The topic of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) is highly relevant to deposit insurers. As an increasing number of central banks further their research and planning efforts in CBDC, IADI members are encouraged to intensify their understanding of the potential impact of the introduction of a CBDC in their own as well as in other jurisdictions. To assess the potential impact of a CBDC, sound understanding of operating models and design features is crucial. These will affect factors of key interest to deposit insurers. This extends to the division of labour between central and commercial banks and the degree of privacy attached to CBDC usage. The paper offers a review of key issues relevant to deposit insurers regarding operating models and design features for CBDC, and links these to early global policy standards. Whilst not recommending a particular CBDC design, deposit insurers are encouraged to make their own determination based on developing a deeper understanding of the principles presented. This paper acts as a follow up to a previous IADI Fintech Brief which highlighted some key motivations for CBDCs by central banks. |
| Keywords: | deposit insurance, bank resolution |
| JEL: | G21 G33 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awl:finbri:13&r=fdg |
| By: | Lathaporn Ratanavararak; Sommarat Chantarat |
| Abstract: | Majority of Thai agricultural households have been at risk of trapping in persistent debt problems, which could in turn impede their development prospects. Over the past decade, debt moratoriums have been one of the most extensive policies aiming to help Thai agricultural households – resulting in 44.1% of households being in debt moratoriums for more than 4 years. This paper estimates the impacts of agricultural debt moratoriums on households’ debt, saving and agricultural investment dynamics using a unique panel data of 1 million representative households nationwide. We found that while the debt moratoriums could decrease delinquency propensity in the short run, they significantly resulted in higher debt accumulation, especially among those with larger debt and those with higher program intensity. The moratoriums had no significant impact on saving, while could increase agricultural investment especially among those with smaller debt. The findings imply that design of Thailand’s popular debt moratoriums should be revisited, especially they should be more targeted and limited to short-term relief. |
| Keywords: | Farmer debt; Debt moratorium; Debt relief; Debt accumulation; Agriculture; Thailand |
| JEL: | G28 G51 Q12 Q14 O16 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:195&r=fdg |
| By: | M. Ali Choudhary; Anil K. Jain |
| Abstract: | https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/i fdp/credit-access-and-relational-contrac ts.htm |
| Keywords: | enforcement; credit markets; contracts; screening; banks; asymmetric information |
| JEL: | O16 C93 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:2022&r=fdg |
| By: | Santiago Carbo-Valverde; Héctor Pérez Saiz; Hongyu Xiao |
| Abstract: | This paper measures how both geographical and cultural proximity of bank branches affect household credit choice and pricing. We examine both types of proximity jointly to separately identify the importance of soft information versus alternative mechanisms. Using a detailed household-level database for Canada, we find that both geographical and cultural proximity increase consumer credit by reducing the cost of obtaining soft information. Furthermore, soft information obtained via the two types of proximity can be either substitutes for or complements to each other, with complementarity being more likely for products that require high levels of ex-ante screening. Overall, our results suggest that ongoing branch consolidation, happening in many countries, may lead to lower financial inclusion, especially in culturally diverse neighbourhoods. |
| Keywords: | Credit and credit aggregates; Financial institutions; Financial services |
| JEL: | D82 D83 G20 G21 R22 Z10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:23-2&r=fdg |
| By: | Luca Henkel; Christian Zimpelmann |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a key factor influencing households' decision to invest in the stock market, how people view stockholders. Using survey data from the US and the Netherlands, we first document that the overwhelming majority of respondents view stockholders negatively – they are perceived as greedy, gambler-like, and selfish individuals. We then provide experimental evidence that such perceptions of identity-relevant characteristics causally influence decision-making: if people view stockholders more negatively, they are less likely to choose stock-related investments. Furthermore, by linking survey and administrative data, we show that negative perceptions strongly predict households’ stock market participation, more so than leading alternative determinants. Beyond investment decisions, perceptions predict individuals’ polarizing behavior towards stockholders, support for taxation and regulation of financial markets, and misreporting in surveys. Our findings provide a novel explanation for the puzzlingly low stock market participation rates around the world, new perspectives on the malleability of financial decision-making, and evidence for the importance of identity in economic decision-making. |
| Keywords: | Identity, Perceptions, Stock Market Participation, Finacial Decision-Making |
| JEL: | G41 G51 D14 D83 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2022_380&r=fdg |