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on Financial Development and Growth |
| By: | Peichang Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an endogenous growth model in which R&D improves product quality and venture capital supports these qualityenhancing activities both financially and nonfinancially. In the model, the venture capitalists' skill in evaluating entrepreneurs' innovative abilities plays a key role in achieving innovation and economic growth. When their skill is suciently low, neither innovation nor economic growth occurs even if entrepreneurs are abundant in the economy. Moreover, insucient market size discourages entrepreneurs from engaging in R&D activities. Therefore, competent venture capitalists and a suciently large market are indispensable to the economy's long-run growth. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:19&r= |
| By: | Ngoc-Sang Pham (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie, EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie) |
| Abstract: | In a market economy, the aggregate production level depends not only on the aggregate variables but also on the distribution of individual characteristics (e.g., productivity, credit limit, ...). We point out that, due to financial frictions the equilibrium aggregate production may be non-monotonic in both individual productivity and credit limit. By consequence, the emergence of some firms (for example, improving productivity or relaxing credit limit) may not necessarily be beneficial to economic development. |
| Keywords: | Productivity shock,Financial shock,Credit constraint,Heterogeneity,Productivity dispersion,Distributional effects,Efficiency,General equilibrium |
| Date: | 2022–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03686284&r= |
| By: | Jorge Pozo (Central Reserve Bank of Peru) |
| Abstract: | In this work, we aim to study the implications of the interest rate cap in an emerging economy. To do so we develop a two-period banking model with entrepreneurs that undertake risky projects and with formal and informal lenders. Entrepreneurs are heterogeneous in their level of net worth. We find that a cap on the lending interest rate excludes entrepreneurs with a low level of net worth, which in turn increases the participation of the informal credit market, but also might reduce bank markups increasing entrepreneurs' welfare. As a result, our model implies that the lower the market power of banks, the smaller the likelihood that the cap might have some positive impact on aggregate credit and investment. |
| Keywords: | Interest rate cap; Informal credit market; monopoly banks |
| JEL: | E5 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2022–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp16-2022&r= |
| By: | Kuvshinov, Dmitry; Richter, Björn; Zimmermann, Kaspar |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long-run evolution of bank risk and its links to the macroeconomy. Using data for 17 advanced economies, we show that the riskiness of bank assets declined materially between 1870 and 2016. But even though bank assets have become safer, the losses on these assets are associated with increasingly large output gaps. Before 1945, bank asset returns had no excess predictive power for future economic activity, while after 1945 they have outperformed non-financials as a predictor of GDP. We provide evidence linking this increasing connectedness between banks and the macroeconomy to secular increases in financial and macroeconomic leverage. JEL Classification: G01, G15, G21, E44, N20, O16 |
| Keywords: | banking crises, bank risk, leverage, long-run trends, macro-financial linkages |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222672&r= |
| By: | Smitkova, L. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I study financial liberalization between economies that differ in their overall competitiveness. I first show that if firms compete oligopolistically, then competitiveness - relatively low aggregate unit costs of production - is a feature of an economy with fatter tailed productivity distribution and relatively more very large - 'superstar' - firms. Embedding this setup in a two-country model with heterogeneous agents and non-homothetic saving behaviour, I show that if home is more competitive, then: (1) it enjoys a higher aggregate profit rate than foreign; (2) its autarkic interest rate is lower than that in foreign; (3) should the two economies undergo financial liberalization, the capital will be flowing from home to foreign; (4) if one of the sectors is non-tradable, the capital inflows push up the wages in foreign, leading to further losses of competitiveness and to current account overshooting. I calibrate the quantitative version of the model to 8 European economies on the eve of the global financial crisis. I show that the competitiveness gap can explain 27% of variation in the current account imbalances incurred in the period. I conclude by discussing policies for rebalancing. |
| Date: | 2022–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2241&r= |
| By: | Ms. Adina Popescu |
| Abstract: | Central banks around the world are increasingly exploring central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). This paper investigates the possible impacts of cross-border CBDCs on capital flows and financial stability in a simple open economy extension of a classical model of bank runs, augmented with the presence of a credible foreign central bank, which issues an account-based interest bearing CBDC available to nonresidents. The paper finds that the presence of a foreign CBDC which acts as an international safe asset may increase the risk of financial disintermediation in the domestic banking sector, which can be accompanied by higher and more volatile capital flows. |
| Keywords: | Central bank digital currency; CBDC; capital flows; open-economy; financial stability; deposit contract; capital flows volatility; cross-border CBDCs; model of bank runs; CBDC deposit; CBDC issuer; Central Bank digital currencies; Commercial banks; Foreign banks; Bank deposits; Capital account; Global |
| Date: | 2022–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/083&r= |
| By: | Bevilacqua, Mattia; Tunaru, Radu |
| Abstract: | This study disentangles a measure of implied skewness that is related to downward movements in the U.S. equity index from the corresponding implied skewness that is associated with upward movements. A positive SKEW index is constructed from S&P 500 call options, whereas a negative SKEW index is constructed from the S&P 500 put options. We show that the positive SKEW is linked to market sentiment, whereas the negative SKEW is related to existing tail risk measures. The negative SKEW is proposed as a more objective prudent tail risk measure, and it is found to be able to predict recessions, market downturns, and uncertainty indicators up to one year in advance. The predictive power of the negative SKEW is also confirmed when we control for other tail risk measures and also out-of-sample. |
| Keywords: | financial stability; implied skewness; market downturns; market sentiment; tail risk; ES/K002309/1; ES/R009724/1 |
| JEL: | F3 G3 C1 |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108198&r= |
| By: | Michael T. Kiley |
| Abstract: | Recessions impose sizable hardship, with large increases in the unemployment rate and related dislocations. In addition, recessions can lead to large shifts in financial markets. As a result, economists and financial market professionals have considered prediction models to assess the probability of a recession. |
| Date: | 2022–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2022-06-21-1&r= |
| By: | Takahashi, Yuta; Takayama, Naoki |
| Abstract: | We present evidence that the rise in inflation in Japan since 2014 is a result of a hidden stagflation: the relative prices of durable consumption and ICT investment goods stopped declining, reflecting technology stagnation and exerting an inflationary pressure on the economy and; the real side of the Japanese economy simultaneously started stagnating even further. We construct a multi-good monetary model to account for these facts together and quantify the impact of the technology stagnation on the aggregate inflation rate. We develop a new sign restriction approach to construct informative lower bounds to the impact of the technology stagnation on long-run inflation without relying on the exact Euler equation and some of the balanced growth path properties. By using the lower bounds, we find that inflation would be close to 0% or even negative without the technology stagnation. Moreover, the technology stagnation explains a sizable fraction of the observed slowdown in the real GDP and consumption growth. Our findings challenge the conventional view that Japan emerged from long-lasting deflation owing to the unconventional monetary policies. Finally, we apply our analysis to European countries and uncover the hidden stagflation there as well. |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:733&r= |
| By: | Omer Siddique (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | Total factor productivity (TFP), also known as multifactor productivity, is that part of the GDP that cannot be attributed to factor inputs, including labour, capital, human capital, and materials. TFP essentially tells us how productively economies use factor inputs. Some economies produce more output with the same inputs, while others produce less. Therefore, an increase in TFP growth is essential for long-run sustained growth. Economic theory and evidence also point in the same direction. |
| Keywords: | Productivity, Growth, Pakistan, Exploration, |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2022:4&r= |
| By: | Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm |
| Abstract: | Recently, Lee et al. (2015 (The World Economy, 38, 2015 and 1462) have found that developing countries members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) received higher Aid for Trade (AfT) flows than non-WTO developing members. The present paper extends this analysis by investigating the effect of the duration of WTO membership (and not the mere membership in the WTO) on the amounts of AfT flows that accrue to recipient countries. The main argument in the analysis is that the duration of WTO membership matters more than the mere WTO membership for AfT recipient countries' degree of liberalization of trade regime and participation in international trade, the latter being a critical determinant of the AfT flows supplied by donors. The analysis has used a panel dataset of 136 countries over the period from 2002 to 2019, and the two-step generalized methods of moments estimator. It has established that countries receive higher AfT flows as their membership duration increases, and the amounts of these resource inflows increase as recipient countries further liberalize their trade regime and further participate in international trade. Additionally, the effect of the duration of WTO membership on total AfT flows depends on donor-countries' commercial self-interest in recipient countries, including the latter's economic growth performance and endowment in natural resources. |
| Keywords: | Duration of WTO membership,Aid for Trade,Developing Countries |
| JEL: | F1 O19 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:260562&r= |
| By: | Andreas Freytag (Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, University of Stellenbosch, and CESifo Research Network); Miriam Kautz (Friedrich-Schiller University Jena) |
| Abstract: | International economic engagement has been increasingly framed in terms of liberal democratic values. Specifically, Chinese aid has been at the center of this debate. Since Chinese aid comes with "no strings attached", a popular narrative is that Chinese aid poses a challenge to conditional aid, thus weakening democracy promotion. This study aims to deepen our understanding of how democratic values are shaped by international economic engagement. Drawing on the Latinobarómetro Household Survey, we use an instrumental variable approach to test the effect of Chinese aid on attitudes toward democracy in 18 Latin American countries on the national and regional level. We find that Chinese aid has a non-negative effect on support for democracy. We also find that individuals who have a positive attitude towards China are more likely to value democracy. In contrast, positive attitudes towards the USA have no robust impact on support for democracy. |
| Keywords: | China, Latin America, foreign aid, public opinion, support for democracy, values |
| JEL: | F35 F61 F69 O54 P33 |
| Date: | 2022–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2022-006&r= |
| By: | Stein Berre; Paul Kosmetatos; Asani Sarkar |
| Abstract: | June 2022 marks the 250th anniversary of the outbreak of the 1772-3 credit crisis. Although not widely known today, this was arguably the first “modern” global financial crisis in terms of the role that private-sector credit and financial products played in it, in the paths of financial contagion that propagated the initial shock, and in the way authorities intervened to stabilize markets. In this post, we describe these developments and note the parallels with modern financial crises. |
| Keywords: | credit crisis; economic history; global credit |
| JEL: | G01 |
| Date: | 2022–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:94395&r= |
| By: | Tran Huynh (Friedrich Schiller University Jena); Silke Uebelmesser (Friedrich Schiller University Jena and CESifo) |
| Abstract: | This study provides the first attempt to evaluate whether a logit early warning system (EWS) for systemic banking crises can produce better predictions when political indicators are used alongside traditional macro-financial indicators. Based on a dataset covering 32 advanced economies for the period 1975-2017, we show that the inclusion of political indicators helps improve the predictive performance of the model. While the improvement is small, it is statistically significant and consistent for several different performance measures and robustness tests. Among the newly employed political variables, variables indicating the political ideology of the ruling party and the time in office of the incumbent chief executive show significant correlations with the likelihood of systemic banking crises. The results suggest that a systemic banking crisis is less likely when the government is left-wing and when the chief executive officer has been in office longer. |
| Keywords: | early warning systems, systemic banking crises, vulnerability, political indicators, macro-financial indicators |
| JEL: | C35 C53 E60 F37 G01 G28 |
| Date: | 2022–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2022-007&r= |
| By: | Pierre van der Eng |
| Keywords: | stock exchange; securities; capital market; institutional development; Indonesia |
| JEL: | G23 G32 N25 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:105&r= |
| By: | Moll, Ben |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2020–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:107424&r= |
| By: | Sebastian Doerr; Thomas Drechsel; Donggyu Lee |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that changes in top income shares affect job creation at firms of different sizes. High-income households save relatively more in stocks and bonds, and relatively less in bank deposits. We propose that a higher share of income accruing to top earners therefore channels funds to large firms, but tightens financing conditions for small, bank-dependent firms. In turn, small firms create fewer jobs than large firms. Exploiting variation in top incomes across U.S. states and an instrumental variable strategy, we estimate that a 10 percentage point (p.p.) increase in the income share of the top 10 percent reduces the net job creation rate of small firms by 2.5 p.p. relative to large firms. Very small firms and those in bank-dependent industries are most affected. Experiments in a quantitative macro model show that growing top incomes account for 16 percent of the overall decline in the employment share of small firms since 1980. The model also reveals that not taking into account the link between inequality and job creation understates the welfare effects of income redistribution. |
| Keywords: | income inequality; job creation; small businesses; bank lending; household heterogeneity; financial frictions |
| JEL: | D22 D31 E44 L25 |
| Date: | 2022–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:94406&r= |
| By: | Dyna Heng; Yoke Wang Tok |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of Fintech in financial inclusion. Using Global Findex data and emerging fintech indicators, we find that Fintech has a higher positive correlation with digital financial inclusion than traditional measures of financial inclusion. In the second stage of our empirical investigation, we examine the key factors that are correlated with the Fletcher School’s three digital divide – gender divide, class (rich-poor) divide and rural divide. The results indicate that greater use of fintech is significantly associated with a narrowing of the class divide and rural divide but there was no impact on the gender divide. These findings imply that Fintech alone may not be sufficient to close the gender gap in access to financial services. Fintech development may need to be complemented with targeted policy initiatives aimed at addressing the gender gap directly, and at changing attitudes and social norms across demographics. |
| Keywords: | Fintech; Financial Inclusion; Financial Development; Inequality; Fintech development; class divide; role of Fintech; appendix A. data definition; Fintech proxy; Digital financial services; Gender inequality; Mobile banking; East Asia; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific; Global; Middle East; Southeast Asia |
| Date: | 2022–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/080&r= |
| By: | Lei Liu; Guangli Lu; Wei Xiong |
| Abstract: | By comparing uncollateralized business loans made by a big tech lending program with conventional bank loans, we find that big tech loans tend to be smaller and have higher interest rates and that borrowers of big tech loans tend to repay far before maturity and borrow more frequently. These patterns remain for borrowers with access to bank credit. Our findings highlight the big tech lender’s roles in serving borrowers’ short-term liquidity rather than their long-term financing needs. Through this model, big tech lending facilitates credit to borrowers underserved by banks without experiencing more-severe adverse selection or incurring greater risks than banks (even during the COVID-19 crisis). |
| JEL: | G23 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30160&r= |
| By: | Chang Su; Wenbo Lyu; Yueting Liu |
| Abstract: | By comparing the historical patterns of currency development, this paper pointed out the inevitability of the development of digital currency and the relationship between digital currency and the digital economy. With the example of China, this paper predicts the future development trend of digital currency. In the context of the rapid development of private cryptocurrency, China launched the digital currency based on serving the digital economy and committed to the globalization of the digital renminbi (RMB) and the globalization of the digital economy. The global economy in 2022 ushered in stagnation, and China treats digital fiat currency and the digital economy development as a breakthrough to pursue economic transformation and new growth. It has become one of the forefront countries with numerous experiences that can be learned by countries around the world. |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2205.14517&r= |
| By: | Holtfort, Thomas; Horsch, Andreas; Schwarz, Joachim |
| Abstract: | Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, have caused intense discussions during recent years among market participants according to new options (such as payment or financing alternatives) and new risks (such as price volatility) involved. Despite being considered by various actors of private households, companies, financial, monetary, and political institutions, a theory-based understanding of this innovation and knowledge of their evolution is still limited. On a basic level, this holds for differences between cryptocurrencies on the one hand and traditional currencies, like paper money, gold or special assets, on the other. On a market level, factors driving the prices of cryptocurrencies appear to be of seminal meaning, in particular against the backdrop of recent market turmoil. Therefore, the paper conducts an empirical analysis of the five biggest cryptocurrencies (measured by market capitalization) with regard to their evolutionary development, price behaviour, and their impact for managers |
| Keywords: | cryptocurrencies,innovation,evolutionary economics |
| JEL: | E42 O30 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tufwps:202201&r= |
| By: | Eduard Baumohl (University of Economics in Bratislava & Faculty of Economics, Technical University of Kosice, Slovakia); Evzen Kocenda (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & CESifo, Munich; IOS, Regensburg) |
| Abstract: | We survey the empirical evidence on corporate survival and its determinants in European emerging markets. We demonstrate that (i) institutional quality is a significant preventive factor for firm survival in all sectors of the economy, which holds for small, medium and large firms alike. On the other hand, (ii) the impact of financial performance indicators is lower than one would expect. However, (iii) other firm-level variables play more important roles in firm survival, and the most important preventive factors are the legal form of a limited liability company, the number of large shareholders, and the presence of a foreign owner. |
| Keywords: | firm survival, institutions, financial development, European emerging markets, survival and exit determinants, hazards model |
| JEL: | D22 G01 G33 G34 P34 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2022_16&r= |
| By: | Vanessa S. Tchamyou (Yaounde, Cameroon); Juste Some (Université Norbert Zongo, Koudougou, Burkina Faso); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The study has contributed to the extant literature on the relevance of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) by assessing how financial development dynamics can moderate the incidence of African trade integration on female labour force participation. The focus is on 47 African countries for the period 1995 to 2019 and the empirical evidence is based on Fixed Effects regressions. The findings show that financial development moderates African trade integration to engender an overall positive effect on female labour force participation. Moreover, financial depth proxied by liquid liabilities should reach a threshold of approximately 15.47 (% of GDP) in order to completely dampen an initial negative incidence of intra-African trade integration on female labor force participation. It follows that financial development becomes a necessary and sufficient condition to moderate intra-African trade integration in order to positively affect female labor force participation only when the established threshold of financial depth is attained. Other policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Trade; Financial development; Inclusion; Gender; Africa |
| JEL: | G20 I10 I32 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aak:wpaper:22/006&r= |
| By: | Mr. Boileau Loko; Yuanchen Yang |
| Abstract: | Fintech, which delivers financial services digitally, promises to promote financial inclusion and close the gender gap. Using a novel fintech dataset for 114 economies worldwide, this paper shows that fintech adoption significantly improves female employment and reduces gender inequality, the effect being more pronounced in firms without traditional financial access. Fintech not only increases the number and ratio of female employees in the workforce, but also mitigates financial constraints of female-headed firms. Digital divide and poor institutions weaken such benefits. Endogeneity is accounted for by a fixed effects identification strategy. We conclude by providing policy recommendations and outlining avenues for future research. |
| Keywords: | Fintech; Gender Inequality; Employment |
| Date: | 2022–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/108&r= |
| By: | Kenneth Egesa; Mr. Gregory M Legoff; Maria Borga; Achille Pegoue; Alberto Sanchez Rodelgo; Dmitrii Entaltsev |
| Abstract: | This paper presents estimates of the carbon emissions of FDI from capital formation funded by FDI and the production of foreign-controlled firms. The carbon intensity of capital formation financed by FDI has trended down, driven by reductions in the carbon intensity of electricity generation. Carbon emissions from the operations of foreign-controlled firms are greater than those from their capital formation. High emission intensities were accompanied by high export intensities in mining, transport, and manufacturing. Home country policies to incentivize firms to meet strict emissions standards in both their domestic and foreign operations could be important to reducing emissions globally. |
| Keywords: | Carbon emissions; foreign direct investment; input-output tables; A. carbon emissions; carbon intensity; emission intensity; FDI flow; carbon emission intensities of MNEs; Greenhouse gas emissions; Gross fixed investment; Exports; Manufacturing; Africa; Global |
| Date: | 2022–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/086&r= |
| By: | Mueller, Isabella; Sfrappini, Eleonora |
| Abstract: | We identify the effect of climate change-related regulatory risks on credit real-location. Our evidence suggests that effects depend borrower's region. Following an increase in salience of regulatory risks, banks reallocate credit to US frms that could be negatively impacted by regulatory interventions. Conversely, in Europe, banks lend more to firms that could benefit from environmental regulation. The effect is moderated by banks' own loan portfolio composition. Banks with a portfolio tilted towards firms that could be negatively a affected by environmental policies increasingly support these firms. Overall, our results indicate that financial implications of regulation associated with climate change appear to be the main drivers of banks' behavior. JEL Classification: G21, Q51, Q58 |
| Keywords: | climate change, climate risk, credit reallocation, Paris Agreement |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222670&r= |
| By: | Mr. Serhan Cevik; Fedor Miryugin |
| Abstract: | Climate change is an existential threat to the global economy and financial markets. There is a large body of literature documenting potential macroeconomic consequences of climate change, but firm-level empirical research on how climate change affects the performance of firms remains scarce. This paper aims to close this gap by empirically investigating the impact of climate change vulnerability on corporate performance using a large panel dataset of more than 3.3 million nonfinancial firms from 24 developing countries over the period 1997–2019. We find that nonfinancial firms operating in countries with greater vulnerability to climate change tend to experience difficulty in access to debt financing even at higher interest rates, while being less productive and profitable relative to firms in countries with lower vulnerability to climate change. We confirm these findings with alternative measures of climate change vulnerability. Furthermore, partitioning the sample reveals that these effects are significantly greater for smaller firms, especially in high-risk sectors and countries and countries with weaker capacity to adapt to and mitigate the consequences of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; nonfinancial firms; corporate performance; nonfinancial firm; firm performance; climate change vulnerability; consequences of climate change; sector peer; Natural disasters; Global |
| Date: | 2022–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/102&r= |