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on Financial Development and Growth |
| By: | Gary B. Gorton; Ping He |
| Abstract: | Based on archival and survey data we show that the maturity of U.S. business loans has been continuously increasing since the mid-1930s when banks invented the term loan. Concurrently, bank innovation first involved the invention of credit analysis and covenant design. Later, bank innovation included the advent of loan sales, increased loan syndications, the opening of the leveraged loan market, and the securitization of loans in collateralized loan obligations. We estimate and calibrate a model of bank innovation to determine the quantitative contribution of bank innovation to economic growth. |
| JEL: | O0 O11 O30 O43 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29326&r= |
| By: | Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana; Tomohiro Hirano; Ryo Jinnai |
| Abstract: | In order to account for the ups and downs in economic growth in recent decades, we construct a model with recurrent bubbles, crashes, and endogenous growth that can be easily taken to the data. Infinitely lived households expect future bubbles, which crowds out investment and reduces economic growth. For realized bubbles crowd in investment, their overall impact on economic growth and welfare crucially depends on both the level of financial development and the frequency of bubbles. We examine the US economic data through the lens of our model, finding evidence of bubbly episodes by structural estimation. Counterfactual simulations suggest that 1) the IT and housing bubbles together lifted U.S. GDP by almost 2 percentage points permanently; and 2) the U.S. economy could have grown even faster if people had believed that asset bubbles would not arise. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:21-006e&r= |
| By: | Iwasaki, Ichiro |
| Abstract: | This paper performs a meta-analysis of the effect of financial development and liberalization on macroeconomic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean using a total of 233 estimates collected from 21 previous works. Meta-synthesis of the collected estimates demonstrates that it is probable that financial development and liberalization enhance economic growth in the region, and these policy measures have the potential to have a meaningful impact on the real economy. The synthesis results also reveal that the choice of financial variables significantly affects reported estimates in the literature. Meta-regression analysis of literature heterogeneity and test for publication selection bias produce findings that are compatible with the synthesis results. The test results of publication selection bias also confirm that the existing literature contains genuine empirical evidence of the growth-promoting effect of finance in the region. |
| Keywords: | financial development and liberalization, economic growth, meta-analysis, publication selection bias, Latin America and the Caribbean |
| JEL: | E44 G10 O11 O16 O54 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2021-04&r= |
| By: | Todd E. Clark; Florian Huber; Gary Koop; Massimiliano Marcellino; Michael Pfarrhofer |
| Abstract: | We develop a Bayesian non-parametric quantile panel regression model. Within each quantile, the response function is a convex combination of a linear model and a non-linear function, which we approximate using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Cross-sectional information at the pth quantile is captured through a conditionally heteroscedastic latent factor. The non-parametric feature of our model enhances flexibility, while the panel feature, by exploiting cross-country information, increases the number of observations in the tails. We develop Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for estimation and forecasting with our quantile factor BART model (QF-BART), and apply them to study growth at risk dynamics in a panel of 11 advanced economies. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2110.03411&r= |
| By: | Comunale, Mariarosaria; Mongelli, Francesco Paolo |
| Abstract: | We investigate which variables have supported growth in the euro area over the last 30 years. This is a challenging task due to dimensionality problems: a large set of potential determinants, limited data, and the prospect that some variables could be non-stationary. We assemble a set of 35 real, financial, monetary, and institutional variables for nine of the original euro area countries covering the period between 1990Q1 and 2016Q4. Using the Weighted-Average Least Squares method, we gather clues about which variables to select. We quantify the impact of various determinants of growth in the short and long runs. Our main finding is the positive and robust role of EU institutional integration on long-term growth for all countries in the sample. An improvement in competitiveness matters for growth in the overall euro area in the long run, as well as a decline in sovereign and systemic stress. Debt over GDP negatively influences growth for the periphery, but only in the short run. Property and equity prices have a significant impact only in the short run, whereas the loans to non-financial corporations positively affect the core euro area. An increase in global GDP also supports growth in the euro area. JEL Classification: C23, E40, F33, F43 |
| Keywords: | euro area, fiscal policy, GDP growth, institutional integration, institutional reforms, monetary policy, systemic stress |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212591&r= |
| By: | Christoph Dörffel (University of Jena); Peter Draper (Institute of International Trade at the University of Adelaide); Andreas Freytag (University of Jena, University of Stellenbosch, CESifo Research Network); Sebastian Schuhmann (University of Jena) |
| Abstract: | Concerns about socially uneven progress and inequality have regained public attention (including that of many populist politicians). The purpose of this paper is to identify the economic policies as well as economic factors that facilitate inclusive development. This paper is a first attempt to empirically estimate the drivers of inclusive development. For our empirical assessments, we apply the Multidimensional Inclusiveness Index suggested by Dörffel and Schuhmann (2020) in a panel OLS regression setup with fixed effects (FE) and GMM estimations for up to 178 countries and a time frame ranging from 1980 to 2018. In FE regressions, we find robust associations with inflation as well as financial sector development in the short and long-run, trade/GDP in the long-run. The GMM results point only to inflation and trade as significant drivers in the long-run and investment in the short run. These results suggest that accessible and well-functioning financial markets paired with low rates of inflation and high trade openness take on a more critical role than government spending. Our results suggest that rudiments of the Washington consensus could still provide guidance for the promotion of inclusive development. |
| Keywords: | Inclusive development, globalization, trade, institutions, policies |
| JEL: | C23 D63 I31 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2021-015&r= |
| By: | Silvia Miranda-Agrippino; Hélène Rey |
| Abstract: | We review the literature on the empirical characteristics of the global financial cycle and associated stylized facts on international capital flows, asset prices, risk aversion and liquidity in the financial system. We analyse the co-movements of global factors in asset prices and capital flows with commodity prices, international trade and world output as well as the sensitivity of different parts of the world to the Global Financial Cycle. We present evidence of the causal effects of the monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and of the People's Bank of China on the Global Financial Cycle. We then assess whether the 2008 financial crisis has altered the transmission channels of monetary policies on the Global Financial Cycle. Finally, we discuss the theoretical modelling of the Global Financial Cycle and avenues for future research. |
| JEL: | E5 F3 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29327&r= |
| By: | Simon Rudkin; Wanling Qiu; Pawel Dlotko |
| Abstract: | Norms of Persistent Homology introduced in topological data analysis are seen as indicators of system instability, analogous to the changing predictability that is captured in financial market uncertainty indexes. This paper demonstrates norms from the financial markets are significant in explaining financial uncertainty, whilst macroeconomic uncertainty is only explainable by market volatility. Meanwhile, volatility is insignificant in the determination of norms when uncertainty enters the regression. Persistence norms therefore have potential as a further tool in asset pricing, and also as a means of capturing signals from financial time series beyond volatility. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2110.00098&r= |
| By: | Christopher Loewald |
| Abstract: | Macro works: applying integrated policy frameworks to South Africa |
| Date: | 2021–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:wpaper:11021&r= |
| By: | Sven Steinkamp (Osnabrück University, D-49069 Osnabrück, Germany); Frank Westermann (Osnabrück University, D-49069 Osnabrück, Germany) |
| Abstract: | While illicit capital flight is a major concern of policy makers in developing countries, there is only little research on the possible link between capital flight and development aid. In this paper, we address the issue for Nepal, a stereotypical financially-closed developing economy that is highly dependent on resources from abroad. Distinguishing features of our approach are the use of a narrowly defined proxy of capital flight, based on trade-cost adjusted mirror trade statistics, and the focus on the foreign-exchange cash component of development aid. We document a robust partial correlation between aid and outward capital flight that is economically and statistically significant. Interestingly, this positive correlation is not observable for remittances, an alternative form of foreign-exchange inflows where the capital flight motivation is absent. Furthermore, it is visible in the the FX-cash component but not in broader aid definitions that include in-kind transfers, or in multilateral and IMF loans. Finally, when comparing the subcomponents of export underinvoicing and import overinvoicing, only the latter is driving our results. |
| Keywords: | Capital Flight; Development Aid; Remittances; Trade Misinvoicing |
| JEL: | F24 F32 F35 |
| Date: | 2021–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0121&r= |
| By: | Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of inflation on per capita income growth for 36 developed and developing countries by using structural vector autoregression models that are robust to the consideration of endogeneity by construction. The results show evidence for heterogeneity of such effects across countries that are shown to be further connected to the strength of their institutions. While the effects of inflation on growth are negative and significant in countries with stronger institutions, they are positive and significant in countries with weaker institutions. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth, Institutions, Inflation, Structural VAR |
| JEL: | O11 O23 O43 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2119&r= |
| By: | Farnè, Matteo; Vouldis, Angelos |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between banks’ size and risk-taking in the context of supranational banking supervision. Consistently with theoretical work on banking unions and in contrast to analyses emphasising incentives underpinned by the too-big-to-fail effect, we find an inverse relationship between banks’ size and non-performing loan growth for a sample of European banks. Evidence is provided that the mechanism operates through the enhanced organisational efficiency of the supranational set-up rather than incentives alignment among the supervisors and the banks. JEL Classification: F33, G21, G28, G32, C20 |
| Keywords: | banking union, euro area, non-performing loans, supervision, too-big-to-fail |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212595&r= |
| By: | Heider, Florian; Leonello, Agnese |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a simple analytical framework to study the impact of central bank policy-rate changes on banks’ credit supply and risk-taking incentives. Unobservable expost bank monitoring of loans creates an external-financing constraint, which determines bank leverage. Unobservable, costly ex-ante screening of borrowers determines the level of bank risk-taking. More risk-taking tightens the external-financing constraint. The policy rate affects the external-financing constraint because it affects both the return on outside investors’ alternative investments and loan rates. In a low rate environment, a policy-rate cut reduces bank funding costs less because of a zero lower bound (ZLB) on retail deposit rates. Bank risk-taking is a necessary but not sufficient for a policy-rate cut to become contractionary ("reversal"). Reversal can occur even though banks’ net-interest margins increase. Credit market competition plays an important role for the interplay of monetary policy and financing stability. When banks have market power, a policy-rate cut can increase lending and still lead to risk-taking. We use our analytical framework to discuss the literature on how monetary policy affects the credit supply of banks, with special emphasis on low and negative rates. JEL Classification: E44, E52, E58, G20, G21 |
| Keywords: | bank lending, deposits, equity multiplier, zero-lower bound |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212593&r= |
| By: | Andreas Kakridis (Bank of Greece and Ionian University) |
| Abstract: | Neither history nor economic historians have been kind to Greece’s central bank in the interwar years. Born at the behest of the League of Nations to help the country secure a new international loan, the Bank of Greece was treated with a mixture of suspicion and hostility. The onset of the Great Depression pitted its statutory objective to defend the exchange rate against the incentive to reflate the domestic economy. Its policy response has generally been criticized as either ineffectual or detrimental: the Bank is accused of having pursued an unduly orthodox and restrictive policy, both during but also after the country’s exit from the gold exchange standard, some going as far as to argue that the 1932 devaluation failed to produce genuine recovery. Relying primarily on archival material, this paper combines qualitative and quantitative sources to revisit the Bank of Greece’s birth and operation during the Great Depression. In doing so, it hopes to put Greece on the map of international comparisons of the Great Depression and debates on the role of the League of Nations, the effectiveness of money doctoring and foreign policy interventions more generally. What is more, the paper seeks to revise several aspects of the conventional narrative surrounding the Bank’s role. First, it argues that monetary policy was neither as ineffective nor as restrictive as critics suggest; this was largely thanks to a continued trickle of foreign lending, but also to the Bank’s own decision to sterilize foreign exchange outflows, thus breaking the ‘rules of the game’. Second, it revisits Greece’s attempt to cling to gold after sterling’s devaluation, a decision routinely denounced as a critical policy mistake. Last but not least, it challenges the notion that Greece constitutes an exception to the rule that wants countries who shed their ‘golden fetters’ recovering faster. |
| Keywords: | central bank; Greece;gold standard; Great Depression; League of Nations |
| JEL: | E58 E65 N14 N24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:290&r= |
| By: | Vicente Esteve (Universidad de Valencia and Universidad de Alcalá, Spain); María A. Prats (Universidad de Murcia, Spain) |
| Abstract: | In this paper the dynamics of the Spanish public debt-GDP ratio is analysed during the period 1850-2020. We use a recent procedure to test for recurrent explosive behaviour (Phillips, Wu and Yu, 2011, and Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2015a, 2015b) in order to identify episodes of explosive public debt dynamics and also the episodes of fiscal adjustments over this long period. |
| Keywords: | Public debt; Fiscal sustainability; Explosiveness; Recursive unit root test; Spain; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | C12 C22 E62 H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2111&r= |
| By: | Sami Alpanda (University of Central Florida, Department of Economics); Hyunji Song (Texas A&M University, Department of Economics); Sarah Zubairy (Texas A&M University, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the effects of government spending shocks depend on the balance-sheet position of households. Employing U.S. household survey data, we find that in response to a positive government spending shock, households with mortgage debt have a large, positive consumption response, while renters have a smaller rise in consumption. Homeowners without mortgage debt, in contrast, have an insignificant expenditure response. We consider a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with three types of households: savers who own their housing, borrowers with mortgage debt, and rule-of-thumb consumers who rent housing, and show that it can successfully account for these findings. The model suggests that liquidity constraints and wealth effects, tied to the persistence of public spending, play a crucial role in the propagation of government spending shocks. Our findings provide both empirical and theoretical support for the notion that household mortgage debt position plays an important role in the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal shocks, Government spending, Household balance sheets, Household debt. |
| JEL: | E21 E32 E62 |
| Date: | 2021–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:txm:wpaper:20210928-001&r= |
| By: | Dimitriadou, Athanasia (University of Derby); Agrapetidou, Anna (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Gogas, Periklis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Papadimitriou, Theophilos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) have been around for more than 150 years. Their role evolved from mere information collectors and providers to quasi-official arbitrators of credit risk throughout the global financial system. They compiled information that -at the time- was too difficult and costly for their clients to gather on their own. After the 1929 big market crash, they started to play a more formal role. Since then, we see a growing reliance of investors on the CRAs ratings. After the global financial crisis of 2007, the CRAs became the focal point of criticism by economists, politicians, the media, market participants and official regulatory agencies. The reason was obvious: the CRAs failed to perform the job they were supposed to do financial markets, i.e. efficient, effective and prompt measuring and signaling of financial (default) risk. The main criticism was focusing on the “issuer-pays system”, the relatively loose regulatory oversight from the relevant government agencies, the fact that often ratings change ex-post and the limited liability of CRAs. Many changes were implemented to the operational framework of the CRAs, including public disclosure of CRA information. This is designed to facilitate "unsolicited" ratings of structured securities by rating agencies that are not paid by the issuers. This combined with the abundance of data and the availability of powerful new methodologies and inexpensive computing power can bring us to the new era of independent ratings: The not-for-profit Independent Credit Rating Agencies (ICRAs). These can either compete or be used as an auxiliary risk gauging mechanism free from the problems inherent in the traditional CRAs. This role can be assumed by either public or governmental authorities, national or international specialized entities or universities, research institutions, etc. Several factors facilitate today the transition to the ICRAs: the abundance data, cheaper and faster computer processing the progress in traditional forecasting techniques and the wide use of new forecasting techniques i.e. Machine Learning methodologies and Artificial Intelligence systems. |
| Keywords: | Credit rating agencies; banking; forecasting; support vector machines; artificial intelligence |
| JEL: | C02 C15 C40 C45 C54 E02 E17 E27 E44 E58 E61 G20 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_009&r= |
| By: | Grochola, Nicolaus; Browne, Mark Joseph; Gründl, Helmut; Schlütter, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Market risks account for an integral part of life insurers' risk profiles. This paper explores the market risk sensitivities of insurers in two large life insurance markets, namely the U.S. and Europe. Based on panel regression models and daily market data from 2012 to 2018, we analyze the reaction of insurers' stock returns to changes in interest rates and CDS spreads of sovereign counterparties. We find that the influence of interest rate movements on stock returns is more than 50% larger for U.S. than for European life insurers. Falling interest rates reduce stock returns in particular for less solvent firms, insurers with a high share of life insurance reserves and unit-linked insurers. Moreover, life insurers' sensitivity to interest rate changes is seven times larger than their sensitivity towards CDS spreads. Only European insurers significantly suffer from rising CDS spreads, whereas U.S. insurers are immunized against increasing sovereign default probabilities. |
| Keywords: | Life insurance,interest rate risk,credit risk |
| JEL: | G01 G18 G22 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:icirwp:3921&r= |
| By: | Philippe Adair; Imène Berguiga |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eru:erudwp:wp21-12&r= |
| By: | Philippe Adair; Imène Berguiga |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eru:erudwp:wp21-13&r= |
| By: | Stjepan Srhoj; Dejan Kovac; Jacob N. Shapiro; Randall K. Filer |
| Abstract: | Bankruptcy restructuring procedures are used in most legal systems to decide the fate of businesses facing financial hardship. We study how bargaining failures in such procedures impact the economic performance of participating firms in the context of Croatia, which introduced a “pre-bankruptcy settlement” (PBS) process in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007 - 2009. Local institutions left over from the communist era provide annual financial statements for both sides of more than 180,000 debtorcreditor pairs, enabling us to address selection into failed negotiations by matching a rich set of creditor and debtor characteristics. Failures to settle at the PBS stage due to idiosyncratic bargaining problems, which effectively delays entry into the standard bankruptcy procedure, leads to a lower rate of survival among debtors as well as reduced employment, revenue, and profits. We also track how bargaining failures diffuse through the network of creditors, finding a significant negative effect on small creditors, but not others. Our results highlight the impact of delay and the importance of structuring bankruptcy procedures to rapidly resolve uncertainty about firms’ future prospects. |
| Keywords: | bankruptcy; insolvency; liquidation; restructuring; |
| JEL: | G33 G34 D02 L38 P37 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp700&r= |
| By: | Mahmood, Ahmad; Zahoor, Ahmed; Xiyue, Yang; Nazim, Hussain; Sinha, Avik |
| Abstract: | Emerging countries are heading towards economic prosperity; however, the process of development has enhanced their ecological footprint. Therefore, to safeguard the environment, it is essential to identify the factors that affect the ecological footprint (EF). In this perspective, this study explores the effect of financial development, human capital, and institutional quality on the EF in emerging countries. Furthermore, we explore the effect of financial development on EF through the channel of human capital. In addition, we investigate the role of institutional quality in the financial development-EF nexus. Using the panel data from 1984 to 2017, we employed the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) technique to conduct the short-run and long-run empirical analysis. The empirical outcomes unveiled that financial development degrades the ecological quality by raising the EF. The findings further unfolded that human capital and institutional quality reduce the EF. Moreover, financial development fosters environmental sustainability through the channel of human capital. Additionally, institution quality reduces the negative ecological impacts of financial development. The causality analysis suggested that any policy related to financial development, human capital, and institutional quality will affect EF but not the other way round. Based on these findings, emerging economies should promote environmental sustainability by promoting human capital and effectively using financial resources. |
| Keywords: | Financial development; Human capital; Institutional quality; Environmental degradation; CS-ARDL |
| JEL: | Q3 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110039&r= |
| By: | Jose J. Canals-Cerda; Raluca Roman |
| Abstract: | Extant research shows that climate change can impose significant costs on consumers’ wealth and finances. Both sea-level rise and flooding from hurricane events led to high price declines and thus wealth loss for homes in coastal areas or in disaster-struck areas, with effects lingering for a number of years in some cases. In terms of consumer finance, while the average consumer is not always significantly negatively affected by a disaster, the vulnerable groups (those with low credit scores and who are low income) can be severely affected, experiencing higher rates of delinquencies and bankruptcies in the aftermath. Banks help mitigate the negative effects in highly impacted areas by increasing their supply of credit, with more beneficial effects found among small and local lenders. Finally, the impacts of natural disasters and climate change on consumer finance can be further influenced by factors such as government assistance and insurance, which can both improve outcomes and induce moral hazard. We caution, however, that evidence reviewed here may be incomplete and calls for further work on all these important issues. |
| Keywords: | climate change; natural disasters; sea-level rise; consumer finance; house prices |
| JEL: | D10 D14 G50 Q50 Q54 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpdp:93140&r= |
| By: | Brühl, Volker |
| Abstract: | The "European Green Deal" stipulates that the EU will become climate-neutral by 2050. This transformation requires enormous investments in all major sectors including energy, mobility, industrial manufacturing, real estate and farming. Although the EU Commission has announced that a total of EUR 1 trillion will be invested into the green transformation of the European economy over the next ten years, the majority of the investments must be financed by the private sector. Alongside many factors affecting a successful implementation of the Green Deal, a regulatory framework for the financial industry has to be established to facilitate the financing of sustainable investments. To that end, the European Sustainable Finance Strategy lays the foundation for a complex set of different measures that have been launched in recent years. This article provides a comprehensive overview of key regulatory initiatives such as the taxonomy regulation, the disclosure frameworks for both corporates and financial institutions and other aspects of financial market regulation that have already significantly improved the regulatory framework for sustainable finance. Nevertheless, some additional instruments could be considered, such as a reform of top management remuneration or the provision of tax incentives for green investments in the real economy, and these are briefly discussed. |
| JEL: | G10 G20 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:657&r= |