nep-fdg New Economics Papers
on Financial Development and Growth
Issue of 2020‒09‒07
twenty-one papers chosen by
Georg Man

  1. Financial development and Economic growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo : Supply leading or Demand following? By Christian Pinshi; Anselme Kabeya
  2. Growth and Risk : A View from International Trade By Krishna,Pravin; Levchenko,Andrei A.; Maloney,William F.
  3. Short- and Long-run Impacts of Bursting Bubbles By Takeo Hori; Ryonghun Im
  4. Bubbles, the U.S. Interest Policy, and the Impact on Global Economic Growth: Reverse Growth Effects of Lower Interest Rates after Bubble Bursting By Atsushi Motohashi
  5. Asset Bubbles, Unemployment, and Financial Market Frictions By Ken-ichi Hashimoto; Ryonghun Im; Takuma Kunieda; Akihisa Shibata
  6. Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)? By Katharina Bergant; Francesco Grigoli; Niels-Jakob H Hansen; Damiano Sandri
  7. Human Capital and Income Inequality in a Monetary Schumpeterian Growth Model By Zheng, Zhijie; Huang, Chien-Yu; Wan, Xi
  8. Built Like a House of Cards? - Corporate Indebtedness and Productivity Growth in the Portuguese Construction Sector By José Santos; Nuno Tavares; Gabriel Osório de Barros
  9. The Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in the Portuguese Quaternary Sector By Paulo Matos; Pedro Neves
  10. One Size Does Not Fit All: TFP in the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Three European Countries By Christian Abele; Agnès Bénassy-Quéré; Lionel Fontagné
  11. Credit constraints and agricultural technology adoption: Evidence from Nigeria By Balana, Bedru; Oyeyemi, Motunrayo
  12. The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment By Valerie A. Ramey
  13. Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Green Growth in Nigeria: Any Spillovers? By Adejumo, Akintoye; Asongu, Simplice
  14. The impact of climate-related fiscal and financial policies on carbon emissions in G20 countries: A panel quantile regression approach By D'Orazio, Paola; Dirks, Maximilian W.
  15. Transforming Finance in the Middle East and North Africa By Arezki,Rabah; Senbet,Lemma W.
  16. Financial inclusion research around the world: a review By Ozili, Peterson K
  17. Governance, Capital flight and Industrialisation in Africa By Asongu, Simplice; Odhiambo, Nicholas
  18. Fighting African Capital Flight: Trajectories, Dynamics and Tendencies By Asongu, Simplice; Uduji, Joseph; Okolo-Obasi, Elda
  19. Does Corruption Hurt Employment Growth of Financially Constrained Firms More ? By Amin,Mohammad; Soh,Yew Chong
  20. Export survival and foreign financing By Laura D'Amato; Máximo Sangiácomo; Martin Tobal
  21. Determinants of non-performing loans in European Union countries By Kristina Kocisova; Martina Pastyriková

  1. By: Christian Pinshi (UNIKIN - University of Kinshasa); Anselme Kabeya (UNIKIN - University of Kinshasa)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to verify the direction of the relationship between financial development and economic growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Using Granger's causality framework, the results indicate that there is a robust, one-way relationship ranging from economic growth to financial development. This result validates Demand following hypothesis in the DRC. Consequently, policies aimed at supporting economic growth, such as the accumulation of endogenous factors (knowledge, education, research), macroeconomic stabilization, reconstruction of infrastructure, structural reforms, creation of a good economic environment for the private and regulatory sectors, and good governance are very important for improving financial development in the DRC.
    Keywords: Economic growth,financial development,Democratic Republic of the Congo
    Date: 2020–07–01
  2. By: Krishna,Pravin; Levchenko,Andrei A.; Maloney,William F.
    Abstract: This paper studies the cross-country patterns of risky innovation and growth through the lens of international trade. It uses a simple theoretical framework of risky quality upgrading by firms under varying levels of financial development to derive two predictions. First, the mean rate of quality growth and the corresponding cross-sectional variance of quality growth in a country are positively correlated. Second, both the mean and variance of quality changes are positively correlated with the country's level of financial development. The paper tests these two hypotheses using data on disaggregated (Harmonized System 10- digit) bilateral exports to the United States. The patterns in the data are consistent with the theory. The mean and the variance of quality growth are strongly positively correlated with each other. Countries with greater financial depth are systematically characterized by higher mean and higher variance in the growth of product quality. The findings suggest a mean-variance trade-off in product quality improvements along the development path. Increases in financial depth do not imply lower variability of changes in the product space.
    Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules,Trade and Services,Legal Institutions of the Market Economy,Transport Services,Private Sector Development Law,Marketing,Private Sector Economics
    Date: 2020–06–23
  3. By: Takeo Hori (Tokyo Institute of Technology); Ryonghun Im (Kyoto University)
    Abstract: Uninsured investment risks are introduced into a textbook AK model. There are no financial frictions. Depending on insurance market development, asset bubbles emerge in an infinitely-lived agent economy. A collapse of bubbles has short-run impacts. At the moment of the collapse of bubbles, aggregate demand decreases immediately. This instantly triggers sharp declines in all of GDP, consumption, investment, capital utilization, and wealth-to-GDP, although capital remains constant in the short run. Consistently with data, investment decreases more than consumption. The bubbles also has long-run impacts. The decreased investment depresses long-run growth. The economy falls into a prolonged recession.
    Keywords: asset bubbles, uninsured idiosyncratic investment risks, instant contraction, aggregate demand, prolonged recession
    JEL: E32 E44 G1
    Date: 2020–08
  4. By: Atsushi Motohashi (Kyoto University)
    Abstract: This study analyzes the impact of the U.S. interest rate policy on the global economy. We extend the literature and build a global model consisting of a large country (the U.S.) and many small countries to investigate the mechanism by which economic growth and asset prices accelerate rapidly after a U.S. interest rate reduction. Specifically, we show that a U.S. interest rate reduction not only increases economic growth rates but also expands asset bubbles as long as the bubbles exist in small open economies. We also show, however, that this low interest rate policy has a large side effect, that is, a collapse of the asset bubbles causes a larger drop in the growth rate of small open countries than that in the case without a lower interest rate. This conclusion implies that small countries need to be prepared for overheated asset prices associated with U.S. interest policies.
    Keywords: Asset Bubbles; U.S. Interest Rate Policy; Economic Growth; Collapse of Asset Bubbles; Asset Prices
    JEL: E32 E44 F43
    Date: 2020–08
  5. By: Ken-ichi Hashimoto (Kobe University); Ryonghun Im (Kyoto University); Takuma Kunieda (Kwansei Gakuin University); Akihisa Shibata (Kyoto University)
    Abstract: A tractable model with infinitely lived agents is constructed for the examination of bubbles and unemployment. It is demonstrated that the presence of bubbles stimulates capital accumulation and reduces unemployment. The presence of bubbles also changes the effects of government policies that target unemployment and welfare conditions in the labor market. The main findings are as follows: (i) the presence of bubbles is more beneficial to an economy with severe credit constraints; (ii) the presence of bubbles mitigates the negative effects of taxation and unemployment benefits on unemployment and welfare; and (iii) these mitigation effects decrease as credit constraints are relaxed.
    Keywords: Asset bubbles, Unemployment, Labor-market matching frictions, Financial frictions
    JEL: J64 O41 O42
    Date: 2020–08
  6. By: Katharina Bergant; Francesco Grigoli; Niels-Jakob H Hansen; Damiano Sandri
    Abstract: We show that macroprudential regulation can considerably dampen the impact of global financial shocks on emerging markets. More specifically, a tighter level of regulation reduces the sensitivity of GDP growth to VIX movements and capital flow shocks. A broad set of macroprudential tools contribute to this result, including measures targeting bank capital and liquidity, foreign currency mismatches, and risky forms of credit. We also find that tighter macroprudential regulation allows monetary policy to respond more countercyclically to global financial shocks. This could be an important channel through which macroprudential regulation enhances macroeconomic stability. These findings on the benefits of macroprudential regulation are particularly notable since we do not find evidence that stricter capital controls provide similar gains.
    Date: 2020–06–26
  7. By: Zheng, Zhijie; Huang, Chien-Yu; Wan, Xi
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on income inequality in a Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous human capital accumulation and household heterogeneity. The source of heterogeneity arises from both unequal distributions of (tangible) wealth and (intangible) human capital. We find that inflation unambiguously lowers economic growth rate, whereas its impact on the income inequality is quite diverse, depending on the relative dispersions of human capital and wealth, and the response of the relative interestwage income share to inflation. Inflation may increase income inequality when the dispersion of human capital dominates (is dominated by) that of wealth, and the relative interest-wage income share is decreasing (increasing) in inflation rate. One interesting scenario in our analysis is that the model can generate a non-monotonic U-shaped relationship between income inequality and inflation. Moreover, our quantitative example shows that this U-shaped relationship is likely to occur in a reasonable range of parameter configuration and the threshold level of inflation is consistent with the current empirical findings using the U.S. data.
    Keywords: Income Inequality; Inflation; Endogenous economic growth; Human capital.
    JEL: D31 E41 O30 O40
    Date: 2020
  8. By: José Santos; Nuno Tavares; Gabriel Osório de Barros
    Abstract: Productivity growth in southern European countries has been slowing down at least since the early 2000s. In this regard, Portugal has been no exception to this common trend as productivity growth has been sluggish since the beginning of the century, well before the global financial crisis. At the same time, corporate levels of indebtedness of Portuguese firms have built-up quite substantially until recent years. Although with different levels of intensity across sectors, this pattern was particularly prevalent in the construction sector, rendering it to be a compelling case to study the relation between debt and productivity. Using microdata from Portuguese construction firms, in this paper, we investigate the long-term impact of persistent corporate debt accumulation on total factor productivity growth. To do so, we rely on the framework provided by the estimation of heterogeneous dynamic-panel models. This framework allows us to account for dynamics, feedback effects, firm heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependencies arising from unobserved common factors. After taking into account the effect of unobserved common factors affecting all firms in the sector as well as firm’s specific characteristics, we find a negative and significant effect of corporate debt-build up on total productivity growth in the industry. This result is robust to different measures of total factor productivity, labour productivity and firms’ indebtedness. Our results suggest that timely measures aiming to reduce debt overhangs by firms may be essential tools to boost productivity growth in the construction sector.
    Keywords: Portugal; construction sector; corporate debt; productivity; heterogeneous dynamic panel models
    JEL: D24 C23 C22
    Date: 2020–02
  9. By: Paulo Matos; Pedro Neves
    Abstract: Quaternary activities have been on the rise, as a consequence of the increasing technological developments and work automation, as they are expected to have an impact on both the future of the job market and the overall economy. As such, and considering that Total Factor Productivity (TFP) constitutes a main driver of output growth, we propose to study its determinants for the quaternary sector. First, we establish several criteria to build our own definition of quaternary activities, as they are not acknowledged in national accounts or other statistics. For such purpose, our empirical assessment is based on a firm level panel dataset, comprising Portuguese firms, between 2006 and 2017. Secondly, we employ the Levinsohn and Petrin (2003)’s methodology to estimate TFP at the firm level. Finally, through a second stage estimation, we build a fixed effects model based on several determinants said to impact firms' TFP, and establish a comparison with the remainder sectors of economic activity. Both descriptive statistics of the database and the final regression outputs provide evidence that quaternary activities differ from the remainder in several characteristics. Our results show that innovation, wage premium and international openness rise the level of TFP, while indebtedness presents an opposite correlation. The age and size of the firm show a non linear relationship with TFP.
    Keywords: Total Factor Productivity, LEVPET, Fixed Effects, Quaternary Sector
    JEL: C33 D22 D24 O31 O47
    Date: 2020–04
  10. By: Christian Abele (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Lionel Fontagné (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: We analyse the impact of both the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and the European sovereign and banking crisis of 2011-13 on firm-level productivity in France, Italy and Spain. We firstly show that relying on a single break date in 2008 misses both the euro crisis and countries' institutional speci_cities. Secondly, although leverage and financial constraints affect firm-level productivity negatively, high-leverage firms su_er more from financial constraints only in Italy, when they are relatively small or when their debt is of short maturity. These results, which are robust to a series of alternative explanations, call for approaches taking into consideration country-level characteristics of financial institutions and time varying _nancing constraints of the firms, instead of pooling data and adopting a common break date. One size does not fit all when it comes to identifying the impact of financial crises on firm level productivity.
    Keywords: total factor productivity,firm-level data,financial constraints,crises
    Date: 2020–06
  11. By: Balana, Bedru; Oyeyemi, Motunrayo
    Abstract: The agricultural sector in Nigeria is characterized by low productivity that is driven by low use of modern agricultural technologies, such as improved seed, chemical fertilizer, agrochemicals, and agricultural machinery. Poor access to credit is claimed to be one of the key barriers to adoption of these technologies. This study examines the nature of credit constraints among smallholder farmers – whether smallholders are credit constrained or not and the extent to which credit constraints emanate from supply-side or demand-side factors. Using multinomial probit and seeming unrelated simultaneous equations econometric models with data from the 2018/19 Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) for Nigeria, the study investigates the factors affecting credit access and the effects of these credit constraints on adoption of four agricultural technologies – inorganic fertilizer, improved seed, agrochemicals, and mechanization. The results show that about 27 percent of survey households were found to be credit constrained – 12.8 percent due to supply-side factors and 14.2 percent due to demand-side factors. Lack of access to information and communication technology, extension services, and insurance coverage are the major demand-side factors negatively affecting smallholder’s access to credit. Registered land tiles and livestock ownership enhance credit access. Credit constraints manifests themselves differentially on the adoption of different agricultural technologies. While adoption of inorganic fertilizer and improved seed are significantly affected by credit constraints from both the supply and the demand-sides; use of agricultural machinery is affected only by demand-side factors, while use of agrochemicals is not affected from either supply or demand-side credit factors. From a policy perspective, our findings indicate that improving credit access via supply-side interventions alone may not necessarily boost use of modern agricultural technologies by smallholder farmers in Nigeria. Demand-side factors, such as access to information, extension services, and insurance cover, should equally be addressed to mitigate the credit constraints faced by smallholders and increase their adoption of modern agricultural technologies and improve their productivity.
    Keywords: NIGERIA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; credit; agriculture; technology; smallholders; agricultural extension; agricultural technology; credit access; adoption; demand-side constraints; supply-side constraints
    Date: 2020
  12. By: Valerie A. Ramey
    Abstract: Can greater investment in infrastructure raise U.S. long-run output? Are infrastructure projects a good short-run stimulus to the economy? This paper uses insights from the macroeconomics literature to address these questions. I begin by analyzing the effects of government investment in both a stylized neoclassical model and a medium-scale New Keynesian model, highlighting the economic mechanisms that govern the strength of the short-run and long-run impacts. The analysis confirms earlier findings that the implementation delays inherent in infrastructure projects reduce short-run multipliers in most cases. In contrast, long-run multipliers can be sizable when government capital is productive. Moreover, these multipliers are greater if the economy starts from a point below the socially optimal amount of public capital. Turning to empirical estimation, I use the theoretical model to explain the econometric challenges to estimating the elasticity of output to public infrastructure. Using both artificial data generated by simulations of the model and extensions of existing empirical work, I demonstrate how both general equilibrium effects and optimal choice of public capital are likely to impart upward biases to output elasticity estimates. Finally, I review and extend some empirical estimates of the short-run effects, focusing on infrastructure spending in the ARRA.
    JEL: E62 H41 H54
    Date: 2020–07
  13. By: Adejumo, Akintoye; Asongu, Simplice
    Abstract: Globally, investments in physical and human capital have been identified to foster real economic growth and development in any economy. Investments, which could be domestic or foreign, have been established in the literature as either complements or substitutes in varying scenarios. While domestic investments bring about endogenous growth processes, foreign investment, though may be exogenous to growth, has been identified to bring about productivity and ecological spillovers. In view of these competing–conflicting perspectives, this chapter examines the differential impacts of domestic and foreign investments on green growth in Nigeria during the period 1970-2017. The empirical evidence is based on Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Granger causality estimates. Also, the study articulates the prospects for growth sustainability via domestic or foreign investments in Nigeria. The results show that domestic investment increases CO2 emissions in the short run while foreign investment decreases CO2 emissions in the long run. When the dataset is decomposed into three sub-samples in the light of cycles of investments within the trend analysis, findings of the third sub-sample (i.e. 2001-2017) reveal that both types of investments decrease CO2 emissions in the long run while only domestic investment has a negative effect on CO2 emissions in the short run. This study therefore concludes that as short-run distortions even out in the long-run, FDI and domestic investments has prospects for sustainable development in Nigeria through green growth.
    Keywords: Investments; Productivity; Sustainability; Growth
    JEL: E23 F21 F30 O16 O55
    Date: 2019–01
  14. By: D'Orazio, Paola; Dirks, Maximilian W.
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of climate-related fiscal and financial policies on CO2 emissions implemented by G20 countries in the period 2000-2017. The analysis show that the impact of various policy instruments is heterogeneous across the carbon emissions distribution. In particular, the effect of a green investment bank is significant across all percentiles and contributes to improving environmental quality. Moreover, our findings suggest that what matters is not the financial sector size per se or the amount of credit devoted to the private sector, but rather the type of finance. This suggests that policymakers and researchers should devote more effort to calibrate their policy instruments and develop an efficient policy mix to achieve climate change mitigation, especially in countries with high carbon emissions.
    Keywords: mitigation strategies,financial regulation,green investment banks,carbon dioxide emissions,climate risks,green financey
    JEL: E58 E62
    Date: 2020
  15. By: Arezki,Rabah; Senbet,Lemma W.
    Abstract: This paper argues for a transformation of finance to support the economic and social transformation of the Middle East and North Africa. The paper first documents the existing financial system in the region. The system is heavily skewed toward banking, relative to non-banking services, such as stock and corporate bond markets, with significant heterogeneity across countries. Second, the paper discusses the stance of macroeconomic policy in the region, which has had important implications for the destination, profitability, and quality of bank lending and the limited evolution of the financial system. Third, the paper explores the impact of technology on financial development, with particular attention to prospects for the development of fintechs. Entrenched incumbency of banks has limited the role of non-bank operators in fostering market contestability and fintech development. The paper is a call to the authorities and policy makers in the Middle East and North Africa to break with the status quo and business as usual. It underscores the need for a ?moonshot approach? focused on establishing the foundations of a new digital economy and its role in promoting a well-functioning and inclusive financial economy to support the development needs of the region.
    Date: 2020–06–24
  16. By: Ozili, Peterson K
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive review of the recent evidence on financial inclusion from all regions of the World. It identifies the emerging themes in the financial inclusion literature as well as some controversy in policy circles regarding financial inclusion. In particular, I draw attention to some issues such as optimal financial inclusion, extreme financial inclusion, how financial inclusion can transmit systemic risk to the formal financial sector, and whether financial inclusion and exclusion are pro-cyclical with changes in the economic cycle. The key findings in this review indicate that financial inclusion affects, and is influenced by, the level of financial innovation, poverty levels, the stability of the financial sector, the state of the economy, financial literacy, and regulatory frameworks which differ across countries. Finally, the issues discussed in this paper opens up several avenues for future research
    Keywords: financial inclusion, financial technology, digital finance, poverty reduction, financial stability, financial institutions, economic cycle, systemic risk, controversy, Fintech.
    JEL: O12 O16 O17 O19 R2
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Asongu, Simplice; Odhiambo, Nicholas
    Abstract: The study examines the role of governance in modulating the effect of capital flight on industrialisation in Africa. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments and governance is bundled by principal component analysis, namely: (i) political governance from political stability and “voice and accountability”; (ii) economic governance from government effectiveness and regulation quality; and (iii) institutional governance from corruption-control and the rule of law. First, governance increases industrialisation whereas capital flight has the opposite effect; and second, governance does not significantly mitigate the negative effect of capital flight on industrialisation. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Econometric modelling; Capital flight; Governance; Industrialisation; Africa
    JEL: C50 F34 G38 O14 O55
    Date: 2019–01
  18. By: Asongu, Simplice; Uduji, Joseph; Okolo-Obasi, Elda
    Abstract: An April 2015 World Bank report on attainment of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) extreme poverty target has revealed that extreme poverty has been decreasing in all regions of the world with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), in spite of the sub-region enjoying more than two decades of growth resurgence. This study builds on a critique of Piketty’s ‘capital in the 21st century’ and recent methodological innovations on reverse Solow-Swan to review empirics on the adoption of common policy initiatives against a cause of extreme poverty in SSA: capital flight. The richness of the dataset enables the derivation of 14 fundamental characteristics of African capital flight based on income-levels, legal origins, natural resources, political stability, regional proximity and religious domination. The main finding reveals that regardless of fundamental characteristic, from a projection date of 2010, a genuine timeframe for harmonizing policies is between 2016 and 2023. In other words, the beginning of the post-2015 agenda on sustainable development goals coincides with the timeframe for common capital flight policies.
    Keywords: Econometric modeling; Capital flight; Poverty; Africa
    JEL: C50 E62 F34 O19 O55
    Date: 2019–01
  19. By: Amin,Mohammad; Soh,Yew Chong
    Abstract: Payments of bribes and the expenses incurred on rent-seeking activities impose a significant financial burden on private firms, which is compounded when they do not have enough funds of their own or find it costly to borrow externally. This paper hypothesizes that financial constraints magnify the harmful effects of corruption. It applies this idea to the impact of corruption on employment growth among private firms. Using firm-level survey data for 109 countries, the analysis finds that corruption has a much larger negative impact on employment growth for firms that are financially constrained compared with firms that are not financially constrained. For the baseline specification, a one standard deviation increase in the bribery rate brings about a decline in the annual growth rate of employment of financially constrained firms that is 2.3 percent greater than that for firms that are not financially constrained. This is a large difference given that the mean employment growth is about 5.1 percent. The results show that corruption"sands the wheel"at high levels of financial constraint and"greases the wheels"of an otherwise slow bureaucracy at low levels of financial constraint.
    Date: 2020–06–22
  20. By: Laura D'Amato; Máximo Sangiácomo; Martin Tobal
    Abstract: Exporting is a finance-intensive activity. But credit markets are frequently underdeveloped and domestic financing tends to be scarce in developing countries, for which a strong export sector is crucial for economic development. Thus, this paper investigates whether foreign financing provides better financing conditions than domestic financing and/or otherwise unavailable external finance, thus increasing export survival rates in a developing country. To that end, it assembles a unique dataset, rarely available for other countries, containing information on foreign credit obtained by Argentine exporters. Based on the empirical models conventionally used in the export survival literature - specifically the probit random effects and the clog-log setups - we provide evidence of a positive link between foreign financing and export survival. This finding is confirmed using an instrumental variable approach.
    Keywords: international trade, credit, foreign financing, export survival
    JEL: F10 F13 G20 G28
    Date: 2020–08
  21. By: Kristina Kocisova (Faculty of Economics, Technical University of Ko?ice); Martina Pastyriková (Faculty of Economics, Technical University of Ko?ice)
    Abstract: Using a panel data model, we study the macroeconomic and microeconomic determinants of non-performing loans across European Union countries during the period from 2005 to 2018. According to our estimation, the following variables are found to significantly affect NPL ratio: unemployment rate, gross domestic product per capita, capital adequacy, private debt ratio, nominal effective exchange rate and the net interest margin. As the NPL ratio is found to respond to macroeconomic conditions, such as GDP and unemployment, the analysis also indicates that there are substantial effects from the banking system to the real economy, thus suggesting that the high NPL that some European countries recorded after the financial crisis could be adversely affected in the future by the downturn in economic recovery due to the pandemic.
    Keywords: Non-performing loans, Microeconomic determinants, Macroeconomic determinants
    JEL: G21 E44

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