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on Financial Development and Growth |
| By: | Janda, Karel; Torkhani, Marouan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth and between energy consumption and greenhouse emissions for the EU countries, using time series data from 1996 to 2012 within a multivariate framework for 26 EU countries. The energy sources considered are oil consumption, natural gas consumptions, and renewable energies including biomass as a distinct part. Unit Root Tests, cointegration test, Pairwise Granger causality tests, and Error Correction Model are employed to find out the type of the causal relationship. We find out that there is in the short run, a positive unidirectional causal relationship running from oil consumption to economic growth. There is also a positive bidirectional causal relationship between renewable energies and economic growth and between greenhouse emissions and economic growth. However, there is also an unexpected negative bidirectional causal relationship between biomass consumption and gas consumption. From the greenhouse emissions perspective, we can see in the short run, a negative bidirectional causal relationship between greenhouse emissions and renewable energies, and a positive unidirectional causal relationship running from both oil consumption and biomass consumption to greenhouse emissions. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, energy consumption, oil consumption, natural gas, renewable energies, biomass |
| JEL: | Q28 Q42 Q43 |
| Date: | 2016–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75440&r=fdg |
| By: | Tamilina, Larysa; Tamilina, Natalya |
| Abstract: | This article explains the peculiarities of institutional effects on growth rates in post-communist countries. By proposing a certain dependence of the institution-growth nexus on the mode of institutional grafting, the distinction between drift-phase and path-breaking institutional change is introduced. Theoretical juxtapositions show that transition countries’ institutions built through path-breaking institutional reforms differ from those that emerge evolutionarily in the drift phase in a twofold manner in their relationship to growth. Growth rates of their economies are less likely to depend on the quality of legal institutions and are more likely to be a function of the maturity of political institutions. In addition, legal institutional change in the post-communist world is a product of the quality of the political environment to a greater extent than their drift-phase alternatives. These propositions are tested empirically based on a sample of 87 countries derived from the POLITY IV Project's website. |
| Keywords: | Institutional Economics, Formal Institutions, Institutional Change, Post-Communist Transition |
| JEL: | O11 O17 P51 |
| Date: | 2016–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75430&r=fdg |
| By: | Qureshi, Irfan (Department of Economics, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Is the classic Taylor rule misspecified? I show that the inability of the Taylor rule to explain the federal funds rate using real-time data stems from the omission of a money growth objective. I highlight the significant role played by money in the policy discourse during the Volcker-Greenspan era using new FOMC data, benchmarking a novel characterization of “good” policy. An application of this framework offers a unified policy-based explanation of the Great Moderation and Recession. Welfare analysis based on the New-Keynesian model endorses the rule with money. The evidence raises significant concerns about relying on the simple Taylor rule as a policy benchmark and suggests why money may serve as a useful indicator in guiding future monetary policy decisions. |
| Keywords: | Taylor rule ; policy objectives ; money aggregates ; macroeconomic stability |
| JEL: | E30 E31 E42 E52 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1133&r=fdg |
| By: | Ben Hassine, Hela |
| Abstract: | The main contribution of this paper is to analyze whether the absence of restructuring programs during some financial crisis episodes was justified. In other words, was the countries' debt sustainable, allowing an intervention through only an IMF bailout ? Using a non- parametric methodology (Classification And Regression Tree or CART), the fiscal and the external solvency of countries facing financial troubles since the 80’s was assessed. It is found that, in some crisis episodes, like the one faced by Argentina in 1995, Brazil in 1999 and Turkey in 2001, a debt restructuring plan was necessary while the countries clearly exhibited solvency problems. This can explain the inefficiency of the IMF intervention during some crises. |
| Keywords: | Financial crises, sustainability assessment, IMF, Debt |
| JEL: | F32 F34 F35 G01 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75466&r=fdg |