nep-fdg New Economics Papers
on Financial Development and Growth
Issue of 2015‒11‒21
six papers chosen by
Iulia Igescu
Ministry of Presidential Affairs

  1. Cyclically Balanced Growth Paths in a Model of Economic Growth with Endogenous Policy Switching By Andrei S. Akhremenko; Alexander P. Petrov; Egor A. Yureskul
  2. Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis By Neil R. Ericsson
  3. Accounting for Productivity Growth: Schumpeterian versus Semi-Endogenous Explanantions By Johannes W. Fedderke and Yang Liu
  4. The U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy By Dudley, William
  5. Changing views on growth: What became of pro-poor growth? By Grimm, Michael; Sipangule, Kacana; Thiele, Rainer; Wiebelt, Manfred
  6. Government Spending Composition, Aggregate Demand, Growth and Distribution By Luca Zamparelli; Daniele Tavani

  1. By: Andrei S. Akhremenko (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexander P. Petrov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Egor A. Yureskul (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper deals with a model of economic growth, which we expand to include endogenous policy switching based on retrospective voting. It is shown that under certain conditions the solution has a special form that we call a cyclically balanced growth path. This type of solution is an analogue to balanced growth paths, which often occur in growth models with constant policies. Cyclically balanced growth paths are investigated analytically, and the growth rate over the cycle has been found. Results of numerical experiments are also provided and possible empirical applications of the model are outlined
    Keywords: differential equations; dynamical model; policy space; democracy; autocracy; economic growth; efficiency; public capital; growth path; retrospective voting
    JEL: C61 H54 O41
    Date: 2015
  2. By: Neil R. Ericsson (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
    Abstract: Stekler and Symington (2016) construct indexes that quantify the Federal Open Market Committee’s views about the U.S. economy, as expressed in the minutes of the FOMC’s meetings. These indexes provide insights on the FOMC’s deliberations, especially at the onset of the Great Recession. The current paper complements Stekler and Symington’s analysis by showing that their indexes reveal relatively minor bias in the FOMC’s views when the indexes are reinterpreted as forecasts. Additionally, these indexes provide a proximate mechanism for inferring the Fed staff’s Greenbook forecasts of the U.S. real GDP growth rate, years before the Greenbook’s public release.
    Keywords: Autometrics; bias; Fed; financial crisis; FOMC; forecasts; GDP; Great Recession; Greenbook; impulse indicator saturation; projections; Tealbook; United States.
    JEL: E58 C53
    Date: 2015–11
  3. By: Johannes W. Fedderke and Yang Liu
    Abstract: This paper examines the nature and sources of productivity growth in South African manufacturing sectors, in international comparative perspective. On panel data estimations, we find that the evidence tends to support Schumpeterian explanations of productivity growth for a panel of countries including both developed and developing countries, and a panel of the South African manufacturing sectors. By contrast, for a panel of OECD manufacturing sectors, semi-endogenous productivity growth is supported. However, we also report evidence that suggests that sectors are not homogeneous. For this reason time series evidence may be more reliable than panel data. Time series evidence for South Africa suggests that prospects for the sustained productivity growth associated with Schumpeterian innovation processes, is restricted to a narrow set of sectors, strongly associated with the chemicals and related sectors, machinery and transport equipment, and basic iron and steel sectors. Semi-endogenous growth finds much weaker support. For the OECD manufacturing sectors, both semi-endogenous and Schumpeterian growth finds support, with semi-endogenous growth more prevalent than for South African manufacturing. The sustained productivity growth associated with Schumpeterian growth frameworks is relatively rare everywhere.
    JEL: O47
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Dudley, William (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: Remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York City.
    Keywords: personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator; inflation expectations; zero lower bound; interest rate normalization; lift-off; short-term neutral real interest rate; nominal federal funds rate; real federal funds rate; r*; financial conditions
    JEL: E52 E66
    Date: 2015–11–12
  5. By: Grimm, Michael; Sipangule, Kacana; Thiele, Rainer; Wiebelt, Manfred
    Abstract: Pro-poor growth is a promising development concept that links economic growth and poverty reduction ...and is still an integrated part of recent concepts like inclusive growth and shared prosperity...but faces the danger of losing priority in the extended list of goals and targets of the SDGs.
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Luca Zamparelli (Sapienza, University of Rome); Daniele Tavani (Department of Economics, Colorado State University (USA).)
    Abstract: We study a demand-driven growth and distribution model with a public sector, both without and with government debt. Government spending is used to finance the accumulation of public capital and to pay wages to public employees. The interaction between public capital and induced technical change makes long-run growth: (i) hump-shaped in the composition of government spending, (ii) wage-led, and (iii) government spending-led. Provided that the interest rate on government bonds is kept sufficiently below the growth rate, the size of government debt is irrelevant for long-run growth.
    Keywords: Keynesian growth, Government spending composition, Factor shares, Fiscal policy.
    JEL: E12 E25 E62 H50
    Date: 2015–11

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