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on Financial Development and Growth |
| By: | Karine Gente (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM)); Miguel León-Ledesma (School of Economics - University of Kent); Carine Nourry (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM), IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - Ministère de l'Enseignement Supérieur et de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence on the growth benefits of capital inflows is mixed. The growth benefits accruing from capital inflows also appear to be larger for high savings countries. We explain this phenomenon using an OLG model of endogenous growth in open economies with borrowing constraints that can generate both positive and negative growth effects of capital inflows. The amount an economy can borrow is restricted by an endogenous enforcement constraint. In our setting, with physical capital and a pay-as-you-go pensions system, the steady state is unique. However, it can either be constrained or unconstrained. In a constrained economy, opening up to equity and FDI inflows can be bad for growth because it makes the domestic interest rate too low, which endogenously tightens borrowing constraints. Agents decrease savings and investment in productivity-enhancing activities resulting in lower growth. Results are reversed in an unconstrained economy. We also provide a quantitative analysis of these constraints and some policy implications. |
| Keywords: | overlapping generations, endogenous credit constraint, capital flows, endogenous growth |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00822385&r=fdg |
| By: | Marion Davin (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM)); Karine Gente (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM)); Carine Nourry (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM), IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - Ministère de l'Enseignement Supérieur et de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Should a country invest more in human or physical capital? The present paper addresses this issue, considering the impact of different factor intensities between sectors on both optimal human and physical capital accumulation. Using a two-sector overlapping generations setting with endogenous growth driven by human capital accumulation, we prove that relative factor intensity between sectors drastically shapes the welfare analysis: two laissez-faire economies with the same global capital share may generate physical capital excess or scarcity, with respect to the optimum. The model for the Japanese economy, that experienced a factor intensity reversal after the oil shock, is then calibrated. It is shown that Japan invested relatively too much in human capital before 1975, but has not invested enough since 1990. |
| Keywords: | endogenous growth; social optimum; two-sector model; factor intensity differential |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00822391&r=fdg |
| By: | HORI Takeo; UCHINO Taisuke |
| Abstract: | Extending the endogenous growth model proposed by Young (1998), we construct a two-sector growth model that explains the observed pattern of structural change. Unlike existing studies, we assume neither non-homothetic preferences nor exogenous differential in productivity growth among different sectors. Our key assumption is that any two goods produced by firms in a sector are closer substitutes than those produced by firms in other sectors, which gives rise to an endogenous differential in productivity growth among different sectors. When the two composite goods are poor substitutes, the share of employment gradually shifts from the sector with a low markup to that with a high markup. To test the validity of the prediction of our model, we also estimate industry-level total factor productivity (TFP) growth and markup using Japanese firm-level panel data. The empirical results show a negative correlation between estimated markup and long-term TFP growth, and a positive correlation between the growth of industrial labor input and markup, which supports our theoretical results. Finally, in contrast to the previous studies of structural change that consider competitive economies, we study the socially optimal allocation and characterize the optimal tax policies. |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:13041&r=fdg |
| By: | Claire Loupias (EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - Université d'Evry-Val d'Essonne); Bertrand Wigniolle (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
| Abstract: | This paper suggests a new explanation for changes in economic and population growth with a long run perspective, emphasizing the role of land in the development process. Starting from a pre-industrialization state called the "Malthusian regime", land and labor are the main production factors. The size of population is limited by the quantity of land available for households and by incomes. Technical progress driven by a "Boserupian effect" may push the economy towards a take-off regime. In this regime, capital accumulation begins and a "learning-by-doing" effect in production takes over from the "Boserupian effect". If this effect is strong enough, the economy can reach an "ultimate growth regime". In the different phases, land plays a crucial role. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous fertility; Land; Endogenous growth; |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00823255&r=fdg |
| By: | Sugata Ghosh; Andros Gregoriou; Anirban Mitra |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between ethnic diversity and economic performance and, in particular, focus on economic growth under democracy and dictatorship. We build a theory which emphasizes the public spending channel, and show that the relationship between public spending and ethnic diversity is qualitatively different under the two regimes. Our model also delivers that if the dictator is sufficiently corrupt, then growth is bound to be higher under a democracy irrespective of the degree of ethnicity. We then consider a panel of the most and least ethnically diverse nations and address potential endogeneity problems. Our empirical results robustly show that democracy has a significantly positive effect on growth, irrespective of the degree of ethnicity. We also show that the marginal effect of ethnicity on growth in the presence of democracy is always positive, irrespective of the type of estimator used. Finally, we establish that the negative marginal impact of increases in ethnicity can always be overcome by democracy. |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edb:cedidp:13-02&r=fdg |
| By: | Elias Soukiazis (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and GEMF, Portugal); Pedre André Cerqueira (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and GEMF, Portugal); Micaela Antunes (Department of Economics, Business and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro and GEMF, Portugal) |
| Abstract: | Recently, Soukiazis E., Cerqueira P., and Antunes M. (2013) developed a model – hereafter the SCA model - that takes into account both internal and external imbalances and where relative prices are not neutral in the pace economic growth. The SCA model can be considered as an extension of the well known Thirlwall´s Law (Thirlwall, 1979) stating that growth can be constrained by the balance-of-payments when the current account is in permanent deficit. However, Thirlwall´s Law focuses on external imbalances as impediments to growth and does not consider the case where internal imbalances (budget deficits or public debt) can also constrain growth. The recent European public debt crisis in the peripheral countries shows that when internal imbalances are out of control they can constrain growth and domestic demand in a severe way. The aim of this paper is to implement the more complete SCA model in Italy and check its accuracy for explaining the growth path in this country. Our empirical analysis shows mainly that Italy grew less than its potential capacity due to supply constraints. A scenarios analysis shows that improving external trade performance is the most effective way to achieve higher growth in Italy. |
| Keywords: | Internal and external imbalances, price and income elasticities of external trade, equilibrium growth rates, 3SLS system regressions, supply constraints. |
| JEL: | C32 E12 H6 O4 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2013-14.&r=fdg |
| By: | Philip R. Lane (Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the growth record of the member countries of the euro area and assesses the outlook for future economic performance. We describe how the external and fiscal adjustment challenges facing the euro periphery amplify the growth risks facing these countries. We address how growth prospects can be improved by shifts in the macroeconomic policy mix, carefully-timed structural reforms, debt restructuring and the resolution of the existential crisis facing the euro area. |
| Keywords: | euro crisis, structural reform, external adjustment |
| JEL: | E63 F32 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp426&r=fdg |
| By: | Gianluca Benigno; Luca Fornaro |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a model of financial resource curse, i.e. episodes of abundant access to foreign capital coupled with weak productivity growth. We study a two-sector, tradable and non-tradable, small open economy. The tradable sector is the engine of growth, and productivity growth is increasing in the amount of labor employed by firms in the tradable sector. A period of large capital inflows, triggered by a fall in the interest rate, is associated with a consumption boom. While the increase in tradable consumption is financed through foreign borrowing, the increase in non-tradable consumption requires a shift of productive resources toward the non-tradable sector at the expenses of the tradable sector. The result is stagnant productivity growth. We show that capital controls can be welfare-enhancing and can be used as a second best policy tool to mitigate the misallocation of resources during an episode of financial resource curse. |
| Keywords: | Capital flows, capital controls, financial resource curse, endogenous growth |
| JEL: | F32 F34 F36 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1217&r=fdg |