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on Financial Development and Growth |
| By: | Matthew Jaremski (Department of Economics, Colgate University); Peter L. Rousseau (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University) |
| Abstract: | The “Federalist financial revolution” may have jump-started the U.S. economy into modern growth, but the Free Banking System (1837-1862) did not play a direct role in sustaining it. Despite lowering entry barriers and extending banking into developing regions, we find in county-level data that free banks had little or no effect on growth. The result is not just a symptom of the era, as state-chartered banks seem to have strong and positive effects on manufacturing and urbanization. |
| Keywords: | Free banking; antebellum banking; financial liberalization; finance-led growth |
| JEL: | G21 O43 N21 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:van:wpaper:1206&r=fdg |
| By: | Nikolaos Antonakakis (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Harald Badinger (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the linkages between output growth and output volatility for the sample of G7 countries over the period 1958M2-2011M7, thereby paying particular attention to spillovers within and between countries. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), we identify several empirical regularities: i) output growth and volatility are highly intertwined, with spillovers taking place into all four directions; ii) the importance of spillovers has increased after the mid 1980s and reached unprecedented levels during the recent financial and economic crisis; iii) the US has been the largest transmitter of output and volatility shocks to other countries. Generalized impulse response analyses point to moderate growth-growth spillovers and sizable volatility-volatility spillovers across countries, suggesting that volatility shocks quintuplicate in the long run. The cross-variable effects turn out negative: volatilty shocks lead to lower economic growth, growth shocks tend to reduce output volatility. Our findings underline the increased vulnerability of the G7 countries to destabilizing shocks and their detrimental effects on economic growth, which are sizeably amplified through international spillover effects and the associated repercussions. |
| Keywords: | Output growth, Output growth volatility, Spillover, Vector autoregression, Variance decomposition, Impulse response |
| JEL: | C32 E32 F41 F43 F44 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp141&r=fdg |
| By: | Tetsuo Ono (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the political economy of public education and redistribution in an overlapping-generation model of a two-class society in which growth is driven by the accumulation of human capital. The levels of public education and lump- sum financial transfers are determined by voting, while private education which supplements public education is purchased individually. The model, which includes two-dimensional voting, demonstrates multiple steady-state political equilibria. One is an equilibrium with a high share of public education in government expenditure; the other is an equilibrium with a high share of lump-sum transfers. Numerical analysis shows empirically plausible result of growth, inequality and the composition of redistributive expenditures. |
| Keywords: | Education, political economy, inequality, growth |
| JEL: | D72 D91 I24 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:1209&r=fdg |
| By: | Jinzhao Chen (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris - INRA, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the convergence, and the role of internal real exchange rate on economic growth in the Chinese provincial level. Using informal growth equation à la Barro [1991] and dynamic panel data estimation, we find conditional convergence among the coastal provinces and among inland provinces. Moreover, our results show that the real exchange rate appreciation has a positive effect on the provincial economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Real Exchange Rate ; Economic Growth ; China ; Generalized method of moments |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00667467&r=fdg |
| By: | Norris, Pippa |
| Abstract: | Does democratic governance expand wealth and prosperity? There is no consensus about this issue despite the fact that for more than half a century, rival theories about the regime-growth relationship have been repeatedly tested against the empirical evidence, using a variety of cases, models and techniques. To consider the issues, Part I of this paper reviews and summarizes theories why regimes are expected to influence economic growth directly, either positively or negatively. After considering these debates, Part II discusses the technical challenges facing research on this topic and how it is proposed to overcome these. Part III presents the results of the comparative analysis for the effects of democratic governance on economic growth during recent decades. The descriptive results illustrate the main relationships. The multivariate models check whether these patterns remain significant after controlling for many other factors associated with growth, including geography, economic conditions, social structural variables, cultural legacies, and global trends. The evidence supports the equilibrium thesis suggesting that regimes combining both liberal democracy and bureaucratic governance are most likely to generate growth, while by contrast patronage autocracies display the worst economic performance. The conclusion considers the implications. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrv:hksfac:5131502&r=fdg |
| By: | Hasan, Iftekhar (Fordham University and Bank of Finland); De Renzis, Tania (Central Bank of Malta); Schmiedel , Heiko (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the fundamental relationship between retail payments and overall economic growth. Using data from across 27 European markets over the period 1995–2009, the results confirm that migration to efficient electronic retail payments stimulates overall economic growth, consumption and trade. Among different payment instruments, this relationship is strongest for card payments, followed by credit transfers and direct debits. Cheque payments are found to have a relatively low macroeconomic impact. Retail payment transaction technology itself is also associated positively to real economic aggregates. We also show that initiatives to integrate and harmonise retail payment markets foster trade and consumption and thereby have a beneficial effect for whole economy. Additionally, the findings reveal that the impact of retail payments on economic growth is more pronounced in euro area countries. Our findings are robust to different regression specifications. The study supports the adoption of policies promoting a swift migration to efficient and harmonised electronic payment instruments. |
| Keywords: | retail payments; economic growth; financial development |
| JEL: | G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2012–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2012_019&r=fdg |
| By: | Chani, Muhammad Irfan; Hassan, Mahboob Ul; Shahid, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | There is widely accepted concept in economic theory that human capital plays positive role in determining national income. Formation or accumulation of human capital and economic development for human welfare are the major targets of economic policy of each country. This study investigates the casual relationship between economic development and formation of human capital in Pakistan. Based on endogenous growth theory, this study empirically test the standard growth model consisting of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita as a dependent variable and human capital formation, investment in physical capital and labor force as independent variables. Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration is used to check the long run equilibrium relationship between the variables included in the model. For checking the causal relationship between economic development and human capital formation, Pair-wise Granger Causality test is utilized using the time series data ranging from 1972 to 2009. The results of the co-integration show that the variables are co-integrated. They have long run stable equilibrium relationship. The results of the causality test show that there is bidirectional causal relationship between economic development and human capital formation. |
| Keywords: | Human capital formation; physical capital; welfare; education; health; labour force; cointegration; unit root |
| JEL: | E24 J24 O40 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38925&r=fdg |
| By: | Mehdi Senouci (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris - INRA, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates into the consequences of sector-speci c technological progress in a two-sector, optimal growth model. In accordance with existing theory, we find that consumption-specifi c Hicks-neutral technical shocks increase consumption but leave other parameters unchanged. Hicks-neutral, investment-specifi c technical shocks increase the wage-rental ratio, and increase steady-state consumption by a factor equal to the macroeconomic ratio of capital share to labor share. If the elasticity of substitution is equal to one in the long run, the growth regime with only investment-specifi c technical change is sustainable and asymptotically balanced. |
| Keywords: | Productivity ; optimal growth ; golden rule ; two-sector models |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00589627&r=fdg |
| By: | Jacques Kibambe Ngoie (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Arnold Zellner (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | Using several variants of a Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM), see Zellner and Israilevich (2005) and Ngoie and Zellner (2012), this paper investigates how various tax rate reductions may help stimulate the U.S. economy while not adversely affecting aggregate U.S. debt. Variants of our MMM that are shown to fit past data and to perform well in forecasting experiments are employed to evaluate the effects of alternative tax policies. Using quarterly data, our one-sector MMM has been able to predict the 2008 downturn and the 2009Q3 upturn of the U.S. economy. Among other results, this study, using transfer and impulse response functions associated with our MMM, finds that permanent 5 percentage points cut in the personal income and corporate profits tax rates will cause the U.S. real GDP growth rate to rise by 3.0 percentage points with a standard error of 0.6 percentage points. Also, while this policy change leads to positive growth of the government sector, its share of total real GDP is slightly reduced. This is understandable since short run effects of tax cuts include the transfer of tax revenue from the government to the private sector. The private sector is allowed to manage a larger portion of its revenue while government is forced to cut public spending on social programs with little growth enhancing effects. This broadens private economic activities overall. Further, these tax rate policy changes stimulate the growth of the federal tax base considerably which helps to reduce annual budget deficits and the federal debt. |
| Keywords: | Marshallian Macroeconomic Model, Disaggregation, Transfer Functions, Impulse Response Functions, U.S. Fiscal Policy Analysis |
| JEL: | E27 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201217&r=fdg |
| By: | Beja Jr., Edsel L. |
| Abstract: | How SWB affects individual states, outcomes, or decisions is well established in the literature, but how it affects macroeconomic states, outcomes, or decisions remains an open empirical question. This paper focuses on the public policy issue of economic progress defined as either rapid economic growth or stable economy. Results indicate a negative relationship between high SWB and choice for rapid economic growth or stable economy. This conclusion holds for people in the upper-income and middle-income countries, but not so for people in the low-income countries. In fact, results suggest that people in the low-income countries attend less to either rapid economic growth or stable economy regardless of their SWB. |
| Keywords: | Happiness; subjective well-being; economic policy |
| JEL: | D70 I31 B50 D00 E60 |
| Date: | 2012–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38851&r=fdg |