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on Financial Development and Growth |
| By: | Edward Nell, Willi Semmler, and Armon Rezai (New School for Social Research, New York, NY) |
| Keywords: | economic growth; climate change |
| Date: | 2009–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epa:cepawp:2009-4&r=fdg |
| By: | Hicks, Bruce; Kilian, Lutz |
| Abstract: | Recently developed structural models of the global crude oil market imply that the surge in the real price of oil between mid-2003 and mid-2008 was driven by repeated positive shocks to the demand for all industrial commodities, reflecting unexpectedly high growth mainly in emerging Asia. This note evaluates this proposition using an alternative data source and a different econometric methodology. Rather than inferring demand shocks from an econometric model, we utilize a direct measure of global demand shocks based on revisions of professional real GDP growth forecasts. We show that recent forecast surprises were associated primarily with unexpected growth in emerging economies (and to a lesser extent in Japan), that markets were repeatedly surprised by the strength of this growth, that these surprises were associated with a hump-shaped response of the real price of oil that reaches its peak after 12 to 16 months, and that news about global growth predict much of the surge in the real price of oil from mid-2003 until mid-2008 and much of its subsequent decline. |
| Keywords: | Demand; EIU; Forecast Revisions; Global Real Activity; News; Oil price; Shocks |
| JEL: | C42 C53 Q43 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7265&r=fdg |
| By: | Alfred Greiner, Lars Grüne and Willi Semmler (New School for Social Research, New York, NY) |
| Keywords: | climate change; global warming |
| Date: | 2009–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epa:cepawp:2009-7&r=fdg |
| By: | Kiyota, Kozo |
| Abstract: | The empirical literature on trade liberalization reflects two puzzles. First, the effect of trade liberalization on economic growth is ambiguous. Second, the effect of trade liberalization by developing countries on their income distribution is ambiguous. This paper attempts to explain these two puzzles at the same time, based on a multiple-cone neoclassical growth model. The model shows that countries that are labor abundant in a global sense may see a rise in income inequality and a decline in per capita GDP and per capita consumption with liberalization if they are capital abundant in a local sense. The results suggest that the two puzzles can be explained by the existence of global and local factor abundances. |
| Keywords: | Trade Liberalization, Medium-run Growth, Income Distribution, Multiple-cone Model, Stolper-Samuelson Theorem |
| JEL: | F1 O41 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:ccesdp:17&r=fdg |