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on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Dominik Suri (University of Bonn); Jan Börner (jborner@uni-bonn.de); Zerihun Kebebew (Jimma University); Sebastian Kube (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Forest protection contributes to climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation.Yet negative income shocks can induce local forest users to increase extraction in order to cope with economic hardship. We study how social norms shape collaborative forest management when communities face an exogenous income shock. We implement an incentivized framed field experiment with 162 smallholder farmers in rural Ethiopia using an interactive dynamic resource extraction game. Farmers individually decide how many trees to harvest from a community forest: harvested trees yield private income, whereas unharvested trees generate group benefits. They do so under different experimental treatments—either with or without i) the presence of a negative income shock and ii) a previous activation of social norms—allowing us to causally identify mechanisms shaping forest management. We find that the activation of social norms fosters fully sustainable resource management in the absence of an income shock. Moreover, a different norm emerges when the community encounters an income shock: now, harvesting more than can sustainably regrow is considered socially appropriate and harvesting behavior adjusts accordingly. Yet without norm activation, the negative income shock puts even more pressure on deforestation. Taken together, these findings suggest that policy-makers should work with local communities to develop complementary institutional mechanisms that sustain collective forest management in times of crisis. |
| Keywords: | Common-pool resources, forest commons, social norms, income shock, framed field experiment, community forest management, cooperation |
| JEL: | Q20 Q23 Q50 Q56 D70 D91 D64 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:393 |
| By: | Alfonsi, Livia (UC Berkeley); Bauer, Michal (Charles University, Prague); Chytilová, Julie (Charles University, Prague); Miguel, Edward (University of California, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether economic hardship undermines preferences for honesty. We use controlled, high-stake measures of cheating for private benefit in a sample of 5, 664 Kenyans, exploiting three complementary sources of variation: experimentally manipulated monetary incentives to cheat, a randomized increase in the salience of own financial situation, and the Covid‑19 income shock (exploiting randomized survey timing, either before or during the crisis). Cheating behavior is highly responsive to financial incentives in the experiment. Covid-19 economic hardship—marked by a 51% drop in earnings—leads to a sharp increase in the prevalence of cheating, and the effect increases gradually with prolonged hardship. The effects are largest among the most economically impacted and are amplified when the salience of own financial situation is experimentally increased. The results demonstrate that while most individuals exhibit a strong preference against cheating under normal conditions (in line with the existing body of work), economic forces can account for a substantial share of variation in dishonesty: the estimated cheating rate rises from 29% under low stakes in normal times to 86% under high stakes during the crisis. |
| Keywords: | economic hardship, honesty, cheating behavior, field experiment, Kenya |
| JEL: | D91 C93 O12 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18368 |
| By: | Agarwal, Ruchir (Harvard Kennedy School); Gaule, Patrick (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | Exceptional talent accounts for a disproportionate share of innovation, yet many individuals with exceptional ability may never realize their potential. Whether expanding access to advanced training generates learning gains remains an open question. We study this using a randomized controlled trial with 620 highly gifted students from 44 countries, nominated by national Olympiad organizations. Participants were randomly assigned either to an 18-week advanced combinatorics course by Art of Problem Solving or to independent study using equivalent materials. Assignment to the course increased final-exam performance by 0.16 standard deviations. Engagement varied widely: roughly half of assigned students participated minimally, and baseline characteristics explain little of this variation (R² ≈ 0.10). Using random assignment as an instrument for engagement, we estimate learning gains of 0.66 standard deviations among fully engaged students. Among those who later competed in the International Mathematical Olympiad, students assigned to the course performed better on combinatorics problems. Overall, access to advanced training yields large gains when engagement is sustained, but access alone does not reliably induce engagement. |
| Keywords: | exceptional talent, gifted education, randomized controlled trial, student engagement, human capital, mathematics education, olympiad training |
| JEL: | I21 J24 O31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18381 |
| By: | Sarah Necker; Benoit Le Maux |
| Abstract: | We examine how absolute and relative gains within reward schemes influence dishonesty. In our online experiment, we vary two payoff dimensions in a cheating mind game: the payoff level and the absolute payoff difference between being successful or not. A higher payoff level has a negative impact on dishonesty, while a greater absolute payoff difference has a positive impact. Variations in these dimensions also affect the relative payoff difference: we observe the largest decrease in dishonesty when moving from the highest to the lowest relative gain. A potential implication is that reward schemes with a reasonable amount from low performance and a relatively small bonus from high performance are least prone to cheating, and this can be achieved in a cost-neutral way. |
| Keywords: | dishonesty, mind game, cheating, payoffs, incentive schemes, bonus |
| JEL: | C91 C92 M52 J28 J33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12481 |
| By: | Joel Persson; Jurri\"en Bakker; Dennis Bohle; Stefan Feuerriegel; Florian von Wangenheim |
| Abstract: | Heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) are increasingly estimated using machine learning models that produce highly personalized predictions of treatment effects. In practice, however, predicted treatment effects are rarely interpreted, reported, or audited at the individual level but, instead, are often aggregated to broader subgroups, such as demographic segments, risk strata, or markets. We show that such aggregation can induce systematic bias of the group-level causal effect: even when models for predicting the individual-level conditional average treatment effect (CATE) are correctly specified and trained on data from randomized experiments, aggregating the predicted CATEs up to the group level does not, in general, recover the corresponding group average treatment effect (GATE). We develop a unified statistical framework to detect and mitigate this form of group bias in randomized experiments. We first define group bias as the discrepancy between the model-implied and experimentally identified GATEs, derive an asymptotically normal estimator, and then provide a simple-to-implement statistical test. For mitigation, we propose a shrinkage-based bias-correction, and show that the theoretically optimal and empirically feasible solutions have closed-form expressions. The framework is fully general, imposes minimal assumptions, and only requires computing sample moments. We analyze the economic implications of mitigating detected group bias for profit-maximizing personalized targeting, thereby characterizing when bias correction alters targeting decisions and profits, and the trade-offs involved. Applications to large-scale experimental data at major digital platforms validate our theoretical results and demonstrate empirical performance. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.20383 |
| By: | Douglas K.G. Araujo (Banco Central do Brasil); Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago, CEPR and NBER) |
| Abstract: | As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly tasked with autonomous decisionmaking, understanding their behavior in strategic settings is crucial. We investigate the choices of various LLMs in the Ultimatum Game, a setting where human behavior notably deviates from theoretical rationality. We conduct experiments varying the stake size and the nature of the opponent (Human vs. AI) across both Proposer and Responder roles. Three key results emerge. First, LLM behavior is heterogeneous but predictable when conditioning on stake size and player types. Second, while some models approximate the rational benchmark and others mimic human social preferences, a distinct “altruistic†mode emerges where LLMs propose hyper-fair distributions (greater than 50%). Third, LLM Proposers forgo a large share of total payoff, and an even larger share when the Responder is human. These findings highlight the need for careful testing before deploying AI agents in economic settings. |
| Keywords: | Ultimatum Game, LLM, AI Agents, Behavioral Economics, Algorithmic Decision Making |
| JEL: | C70 C90 D91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-29 |
| By: | Ari Hyytinen (Hanken School of Economics and Helsinki GSE); Jan Jääskeläinen (Finnish Consumer and Competition Authority); Antti Sieppi (Finnish Consumer and Competition Authority); Vesa-Heikki Soini (Hanken School of Economics and University of Turku); Janne Tukiainen (Department of Economics, University of Turku) |
| Abstract: | Limited competition in public procurement remains a persistent concern, yet the reasons for low participation are not well understood. We conduct a conjoint survey experiment that targets both potential and actual bidders in Finland. We present real firms with hypothetical tender scenarios, randomly varying key attributes values, asking which tender they would enter. The time required to prepare a bid is the most significant entry barrier. Moreover, tenders evaluated solely on the lowest price, those involving cross-border participation, and higher expected competition reduce entry. Uncertainty over the number of competitors deters entry as much as for certain facing high competition. |
| Keywords: | Entry, Conjoint Experiment, Public Procurement |
| JEL: | C83 D44 H57 L22 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp176 |
| By: | Achyuta Adhvaryu; Jean-François Gauthier; Pamela Jakiela; Dean Karlan |
| Abstract: | How does the expectation of aid change behavior? We propose a simple approach to separate expectations effects from the direct effects of relaxing resource constraints: compare the promise of a program to the program itself. We test this approach in a four-arm randomized controlled trial of cash transfers in Uganda. Both those who received cash and those promised-to-receive cash increase their labor supply and investment. Immediate transfers also increase household expenditures and savings. Our results are not consistent with standard life-cycle models; they are better explained by a model in which the transfer increases individual labor productivity. |
| JEL: | I38 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34857 |
| By: | Balán, Pablo; Pinto, Pablo M.; Vallejo, Agustín |
| Abstract: | How does diversity affect cooperation after natural disasters? Drawing on an original survey of Houston-area households and two survey experiments, we find that diversity is associated with lower levels of impersonal cooperation-beyond family and friends-before natural disasters and with lower cooperation both before and after disasters. In affected areas, households in more diverse tracts report receiving less help and express lower support for recovery policies. In a policy experiment, affected respondents typically favor more costly recovery measures, but this preference weakens in high-diversity areas. A second experiment uncovers strong post-disaster ingroup biases along partisan and religious lines, while shared membership in civic associations emerges as a critical facilitator of cooperation in diverse settings. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that diversity can impede post-disaster cooperation and illuminate how social identities shape cooperation and recovery efforts. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:337494 |
| By: | Ana Armendariz; Martin Huber |
| Abstract: | We propose a framework for testing the homogeneity of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) across multiple experimental and observational studies. Our approach leverages multiple randomized trials to assess whether treatment effects vary with unobserved heterogeneity that differs across trials: if CATEs are homogeneous, this indicates the absence of interactions between treatment and unobservables in the mean effect. Comparing CATEs between experimental and observational data further allows evaluation of potential confounding: if the estimands coincide, there is no unobserved confounding; if they differ, deviations may arise from unobserved confounding, effect heterogeneity, or both. We extend the framework to settings with alternative identification strategies, namely instrumental variable settings and panel data with parallel trends assumptions based on differences in differences, where effects are identified only locally for subpopulations such as compliers or treated units. In these contexts, testing homogeneity is useful for assessing whether local effects can be extrapolated to the total population. We suggest a test based on double machine learning that accommodates high-dimensional covariates in a data-driven way and investigate its finite-sample performance through a simulation study. Finally, we apply the test to the International Stroke Trial (IST), a large multi-country randomized controlled trial in patients with acute ischaemic stroke that evaluated whether early treatment with aspirin altered subsequent clinical outcomes. Our methodology provides a flexible tool for both validating identification assumptions and understanding the generalizability of estimated treatment effects. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.19703 |
| By: | Giuseppe Ciccarone; Giovanni Di Bartolomeo; Valentina Peruzzi; Maria Luisa Signore |
| Abstract: | We model creativity as capital built by costly cognitive effort that complements social capital and is often accompanied by routines that economize attention and time. Higher effort costs deter entry into the creative state, while openness and trust increase the productivity of cognitive effort mainly through creative capital. Using lab-in-the-field data from an Italian music festival and a recursive bivariate probit, we find that costs depress creativity, whereas creativity strongly boosts festival collaboration, volunteering, and territorial cooperation. Consistent with a routinization perspective, the creativity–engagement link is stronger when participation occurs in more socially "structured" environments. To encourage creativity, policies should reduce cognitive frictions and improve the productivity of cognitive effort. |
| Keywords: | Creativity; cognitive effort; social capital; routinization; field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 C35 D01 Z13 O31 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp272 |
| By: | Devos, Louise (Ghent University); du Bois, Kristen (EDHEC Business School); Baert, Stijn (Ghent University); Lippens, Louis (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how professional recruiters evaluate fictitious job applicants with profiles that systematically vary in signals that form ethnocultural identity rather than isolated minority markers. Using a preregistered factorial survey experiment true to recruiters’ organisational context, we assess how greater perceived distance from the ethnocultural majority is associated with hiring intentions. Structural equation modelling shows that lower perceived ethnocultural alignment is strongly and negatively associated with the likelihood of a candidate being considered for a job interview. This bias is also reflected in the extent to which recruiters identify with a candidate, as well as in taste-based expectations and competence assessments related to communication, efficiency, and leadership. Methodologically, we reinforce the credibility of the experimental findings by explicitly addressing socially desirable responses using three complementary approaches. Across all specifications, perceived alignment with the ethnocultural majority emerges as a robust and consistent correlate of hiring intentions. |
| Keywords: | factorial survey experiment, social desirability, identity, hiring, discrimination |
| JEL: | C83 J61 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18372 |
| By: | Klaus Abberger; Arbërim Bibaj; Hans Gersbach; Alexis Perakis; Alexander Rathke; Samad Sarferaz; Kieran Walsh |
| Abstract: | We study how firms’ expectations respond to prospective tariff shocks using a randomized survey experiment among Swiss manufacturing firms. When confronted with potential U.S. tariffs, respondents expect sizable declines in turnover and investment, yet anticipate increases in ex-tariff export prices despite falling demand. This combination of declining activity and rising prices runs counter to the standard prediction of trade models, in which tariffs reduce foreign demand and put downward pressure on exporters’ prices. The observed pattern is consistent with a destination-specific cost-push mechanism, whereby tariffs raise exporters’ marginal costs through compliance burdens, logistical frictions, or reduced scale. Embedding firms’ stated price and sales expectations in a parsimonious structural pricing model, we quantify the implied cost changes and recover sector-level demand elasticities. The estimates indicate substantial heterogeneity across industries and are, on average, consistent with short-run trade elasticities from the recent literature. Moreover, we corroborate the experimental evidence using panel survey data on firms’ expectations around an unexpected U.S. tariff announcement. |
| Keywords: | international trade, tariffs, firm expectations, pricing, cost pass-through |
| JEL: | F13 D22 E31 D84 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12510 |
| By: | Sauermann, Jan (Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU), Copenhagen Business School; Institute of Labor Economics (IZA); ROA, Maastricht University; UCLS, Uppsala University.) |
| Abstract: | Do reciprocal workers have higher returns to employer-sponsored training? Using a field experiment with random assignment to training combined with survey information on workers’ reciprocal inclinations, the results show that reciprocal workers reciprocate employers’ training investments by higher post-training performance. This result, which is robust to controlling for observed personality traits and worker fixed effects, suggests that individuals reciprocate the firm’s human capital investment with higher effort, in line with theoretical models on gift exchange in the workplace. This finding provides an alternative rationale to explain firm training investments even with risk of poaching. |
| Keywords: | on-the-job training; reciprocity; worker performance; field experiment |
| JEL: | D03 J24 M53 |
| Date: | 2026–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_003 |
| By: | Wojciech Zawadzki (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Henrik Andersson (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI); Toulouse School of Economics, University of Toulouse Capitole); Mikołaj Czajkowski (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Arne Risa Hole (Universitat Jaume I) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how behavioral biases influence stated preference valuation of mortality risk reductions, commonly summarized as the value of a statistical life (VSL). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) combined with a contingent valuation double-bounded dichotomous choice and an open-ended follow-up, we elicit individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) for cardiovascular mortality risk reductions. In a randomized design, we varied the cost attribute across three cost range treatments and manipulated information disclosure and feedback to examine three behavioral phenomena: cost vector effects (whether the range of costs presented affects WTP), scope insensitivity (whether WTP scales appropriately with the magnitude of the risk reduction), and anchoring (whether initial cost cues affect subsequent responses). Our results show that mean VSL estimates can vary by up to ~25% between cost treatments. Furthermore, WTP responses exhibit partial scope insensitivity – larger risk reductions do not proportionally increase WTP – indicating a deviation from theoretical expectations. Importantly, we find no strong evidence of anchoring: neither revealing all attribute levels upfront, nor starting with extreme cost levels, nor providing feedback on quiz questions significantly affected respondents’ choices or WTP. Our findings underscore the need for careful survey design. Even if VSL distributions remain statistically similar across cost frames, substantial shifts in mean magnitudes could be consequential for policy. We call for standardized guidelines on cost attribute selection and survey protocols to mitigate bias, ensuring that stated preference methods yield reliable welfare estimates for health policy decisions. |
| Keywords: | value of statistical life (VSL), stated preference (SP), contingent valuation (CV), behavioral biases, anchoring effect, scope insensitivity, discrete choice experiment (DCE), willingness to pay (WTP), mortality risk reduction, cardiovascular diseases |
| JEL: | I12 D01 D61 Q51 C83 C93 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-4 |
| By: | Cattaneo, Maria (Swiss Coordination Centre for Research in Education); Wolter, Stefan (University of Bern); Zöllner, Thea (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | Switzerland features strong socio-economic segregation and no formal school choice, making residential relocation the only channel through which parents can access preferred schools. Identifying how parents value school attributes is therefore essential but challenging, given that choices bundle multiple characteristics. We address this by conducting a discrete choice experiment with nearly 2, 700 parents with school-aged children, allowing us to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for individual and combined school attributes. We find that a substantial minority of parents value academic quality so highly that their preferences are effectively price-insensitive. Among price-sensitive parents, academic quality remains central, but they also exhibit positive WTP for schools with fewer students with special educational needs and fewer non-native-speaking peers. Interaction effects are strong: WTP for reductions in special-needs peers is highest if the school is among the academically strongest. Accounting for attribute interactions further reveals marked heterogeneity, with parents clustering into seven distinct preference types. |
| Keywords: | discrete choice experiment, willingness to pay, special needs education, school quality |
| JEL: | C4 H4 I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18393 |
| By: | Beknazar-Yuzbashev, George (University of Chicago); Jiménez-Durán, Rafael (Bocconi University, IGIER, Stigler Center, CESifo, and CEPR); Simonov, Andrey (Columbia University and CEPR); Stalinski, Mateusz (University of Warwick and CAGE) |
| Abstract: | Most digital platforms are funded through advertising rather than direct payments. Why? We argue that three main factors could explain this prevalence: users are more sensitive to monetary prices than to ad loads, microtargeting improves the match quality between users and ads, and platforms can personalize ad loads and thus price discriminate. We conduct a field experiment on Facebook with 1, 810 users who install a browser extension that (i) hides nearly all ads or (ii) replaces microtargeted ads with untargeted ones. We find that hiding 82% of ads increases time on the platform by only 6%, showing that users are highly insensitive to ad loads. Removing targeting sharply reduces ad clicks and long-run engagement, indicating that targeting increases the match quality between users and ads. Finally, two-thirds of ad-load variation occurs across users, consistent with ad-load discrimination. Counterfactual simulations indicate that an ad-funded model performs at least as well as a subscription model in terms of profits and delivers higher consumer surplus. The key mechanism is that users are much less sensitive to ad loads than to monetary prices, making advertising a relatively efficient revenue source. |
| Keywords: | social media platforms, online advertisement, user engagement, field experiment JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:792 |
| By: | Derek Rury (Oregon State University); Ariel Kalil (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | Parents invest in children’s human capital based on signals of academic performance, but we do not know how they weigh each when having perfect information or when they contain conflicting signals. Using 23, 321 investment decisions from a survey experiment with 2, 079 U.S. parents, we provide the first evidence on how parents trade off grades against standardized test scores. Both signals affect investment: parents adopt compensatory strategies, investing more when either signal indicates poor performance. Parents also put a higher weight on grades than tests, on average. However, we document asymmetric crowd-out: when grades are high but test scores are low, parents do not invest—high grades crowd out the response that low test scores would otherwise trigger. When grades are low but test scores are high, parents invest. This asymmetry implies that grade inflation imposes costs beyond direct signal distortion by preventing remedial investment in struggling students. Hispanic parents exhibit particularly pronounced grade-weighting. Our findings suggest that information interventions providing test scores will have attenuated effects when parents already possess inflated grade information. |
| Keywords: | Beliefs, Preferences, Investments |
| JEL: | I21 J16 D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-20 |
| By: | van den Berg, Gerard J (U Groningen, UMCG, IFAU); Bernhard, Sarah (IAB); Stephan, Gesine (IAB, FAU); Uhlendorff, Arne (CREST, IAB) |
| Abstract: | Integration agreements (IA) outline the efforts the jobseeker should undertake to find employment and specify the services that the caseworker would provide to assist them in their job search. The agreements include a declaration of legal consequences, and punitive benefit sanctions could be imposed based on this declaration. Recent evidence has shown that these IAs are effective for re-cipients of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. Using a randomized controlled trial, this paper investigates whether IAs support the integration of welfare benefit recipients into the labor market. This integration is of utmost importance from a policy and societal point of view. Newly registered recipients of means-tested benefits were randomly assigned to one of three groups, receiving either a) a standard integration agreement with the accompanying declaration of legal consequences at the beginning of the welfare spell, or b) an integration agreement without such a declaration, or c) no integration agreement within the first six months of the benefit receipt. Findings indicate that, on average, group assignment has no effect on the transition out of welfare or entry into employment. Based on a Random Forest analysis to capture heterogeneity, we find no effect by the degree of labor market prospects either. |
| Keywords: | Social assistance; unemployment; active labor market policy; field experiment. |
| JEL: | I38 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2026–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_002 |
| By: | Christian Gschwendt; Martina Viarengo; Thea S. Zoellner |
| Abstract: | The economic impact of technological change will critically depend on how future workers invest in their human capital. Yet, little is known about how future workers themselves evaluate and choose their educational and occupational paths in light of emerging technologies. This paper examines how adolescents currently at the school-to-work transition stage value working with generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) in their future occupations, and how automation risk and opportunities for continuing education shape these preferences. We field a discrete-choice experiment among a nationally representative sample of over 7, 000 Swiss adolescents aged around 15. We find that adolescents generally exhibit an aversion to collaborating with GenAI at work, with females consistently more averse than males. However, preferences are nuanced: adolescents welcome greater GenAI collaboration, provided that GenAI usage levels remain moderate and that it is not accompanied by increases in job-automation risk. Finally, continuing education opportunities in occupations improve attitudes towards working with GenAI across genders. Our results challenge simple narratives of technology acceptance or rejection, revealing that adolescents' willingness to work with GenAI depends on how it is implemented — its intensity, associated displacement risks, and accompanying skill development - rather than the technology itself. Our findings suggest that the way future workers value GenAI collaboration in their career choices critically depends on its intensity and on the interplay with automation risk and AI-related educational opportunities. |
| Keywords: | occupational choice, gender gaps, GenAI, choice experiment, continuing education, automation risk |
| JEL: | I24 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0251 |
| By: | Tavneet Suri; Petar Madjarac; Robert D. van der Hilst |
| Abstract: | Food insecurity is an existential threat for Africa (a continent facing rapid population growth and dire climate impacts) and addressing it a global imperative. Over 30% of caloric intake comes from maize, but crop yields are low partly because high costs make synthetic fertilizers uneconomical. A field experiment with Kenyan smallholder farmers explores the promise of genetically modified (microbial) biofertilizers to deliver nitrogen and increase yields at affordable costs. We see significant increases in yields (up to 110% for some farmers) and lower environmental impact than synthetic products. This suggests that biofertilizers could dramatically improve food security and child nutrition in Africa. |
| JEL: | O13 O55 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34858 |
| By: | Beknazar-Yuzbashev, George (University of Chicago,); Jimenez-Duran, Rafael (Bocconi University, IGIER, Stigler Center, CESifo, and CEPR); Simonov, Andrey (Columbia University and CEPR); Mateusz Stalinsk, Mateusz (University of Warwick and CAGE) |
| Abstract: | Most digital platforms are funded through advertising rather than direct payments. Why? We argue that three main factors could explain this prevalence: users are more sensitive to monetary prices than to ad loads, microtargeting improves the match quality between users and ads, and platforms can personalize ad loads and thus price discriminate. We conduct a field experiment on Facebook with 1, 810 users who install a browser extension that (i) hides nearly all ads or (ii) replaces microtargeted ads with untargeted ones. We find that hiding 82% of ads increases time on the platform by only 6%, showing that users are highly insensitive to ad loads. Removing targeting sharply reduces ad clicks and long-run engagement, indicating that targeting increases the match quality between users and ads. Finally, two-thirds of ad-load variation occurs across users, consistent with ad-load discrimination. Counterfactual simulations indicate that an ad-funded model performs at least as well as a subscription model i terms of profits and delivers higher consumer surplus. The key mechanism is that users are much less sensitive to ad loads than to monetary prices, making advertising a relatively efficient revenue source. |
| Keywords: | social media platforms ; online advertisement ; user engagement ; field experiment |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1602 |
| By: | Kazuki Sekiya; Suguru Otani; Yuki Komatsu; Sachio Ohkawa; Shunya Noda |
| Abstract: | Two-sided platforms must recommend users to users, where matches (termed \emph{dates} in this paper) require mutual interest and activity on both sides. Naive ranking by predicted dating probabilities concentrates exposure on a small subset of highly responsive users, generating congestion and overstating efficiency. We model recommendation as a many-to-many matching problem and design integrators that map predicted login, like, and reciprocation probabilities into recommendations under attention constraints. We introduce \emph{effective dates}, a congestion-adjusted metric that discounts matches involving overloaded receivers. We then propose \emph{exposure-constrained deferred acceptance} (ECDA), which limits receiver exposure in terms of expected likes or dates rather than headcount. Using production-grade predictions from a large Japanese dating platform, we show in calibrated simulations that ECDA increases effective dates and receiver-side dating probability despite reducing total dates. A large-scale regional field experiment confirms these effects in practice, indicating that exposure control improves equity and early-stage matching efficiency without harming downstream engagement. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.19689 |
| By: | Asako Chiba; Kazuya Haganuma; Taisuke Nakata; Thuy Linh Nguyen; Reo Takaku |
| Abstract: | We conducted an information provision experiment in April 2023 in Japan to investigate how different types of information affect people's subjective assessment of COVID-19 risks. The majority of respondents overestimate infection and fatality risks. Recent infection-related statistics lower risk perceptions if presented as percentages, but do not affect them if presented as levels. A pessimistic narrative about the infection outlook raises risk perceptions. We also find substantial heterogeneity in the response to information provision across various individual characteristics, such as age, gender, education, marital status, health status, COVID-19-related experiences, and vaccination status. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e222 |
| By: | Gill, David (Purdue University); Rosokha, Yaroslav (Purdue University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we identify level-k reasoning in repeated games that operates at the level of a supergame strategy, rather than at the level of individual rounds. First, we develop a model of level-k reasoning that incorporates choices over strategies as well as beliefs about strategies chosen by others. Then, using data from the Indefinitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma that includes elicited strategies and beliefs about strategies, we classify a substantial fraction of subjects as level-1 or level-2. Moreover, we show that when level-k reasoning operates at the level of a strategy, cognitive ability and experience both predict higher level reasoning. |
| Keywords: | Level-k, repeated game, Prisoner’s Dilemma, strategy, beliefs, cognitive ability, experience, elicitation, bounded rationality, experiment, game theory JEL Classification: C73, D83, D91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:788 |
| By: | Joshua Bißbort; Daniel Heyen; Soheil Shayegh |
| Abstract: | Advice plays a central role in health, personal finance, and energy-efficiency decisions. We study how a benevolent expert should design verifiable advice—such as whether to commission a diagnostic test of different accuracy—when the agent is behaviorally biased, either neglecting payoff-relevant considerations or updating beliefs in a systematic, non-Bayesian way. The expert both informs the agent about underlying risk and persuades the agent away from choices driven by bias. In a Bayesian persuasion framework with a binary safe-versus-risky decision and moderate (monotone) distortions, we show that the expert’s payoff need not be monotone in informativeness: intermediate information can reduce welfare relative to no information. Nonetheless, full disclosure remains optimal. |
| Keywords: | expert advice, risky choice, Bayesian persuasion, information design, behavioral bias, non-Bayesian updating, full disclosure |
| JEL: | D82 D81 D03 D83 I18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12482 |
| By: | Alexander Bertermann; Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first evidence that children’s economic preferences vary systematically with parental mental health. Using experimentally elicited measures of economic preferences from more than 4, 500 children in Bangladesh, we document that children of parents with indications of mental illness are less prosocial but more patient than their peers with mentally healthy parents. Attitudes toward risk remain unchanged. We discuss potential pathways through which parental mental health may influence the formation of children’s preferences, documenting that children of parents with indication of mental illness assume greater responsibilities within the family, experience less parental involvement, and are exposed to a more adverse home environment. |
| Keywords: | mental health, social preferences, risk preferences, patience, origins of preferences, experiments with children, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | C91 D01 D10 I10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12441 |
| By: | Marcelo Bergolo; Martin Leites; Ricardo Perez-Truglia; Matías Strehl-Pessina |
| Abstract: | Why do some individuals evade taxes while others do not? We study this question using administrative tax records from Uruguay linked to a tailored survey of taxpayers. Using third-party reports, we measure individual income under-reporting as an indicator of evasion. We then examine how three factors predict who evades: social preferences (e.g., honesty measured through incentivized laboratory games), peers (e.g., the behavior of current and former coworkers), and economic factors (e.g., the marginal tax rate). We find that social preferences have little power to predict evasion, while economic factors matter more and peer behavior is the strongest predictor. |
| Keywords: | tax evasion, social preferences, beliefs |
| JEL: | C93 H26 K34 K42 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12432 |
| By: | Irving Argaez Corona (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Béatrice Boulu-Reshef (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université); Jean-Christophe Vergnaud (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how socioeconomic disparities shape the enforcement of norms when observing third-party dishonesty. In an online Die-under-the-Cup (DUTC) experiment with a socioeconomically and geographically diverse sample of 720 participants from the French population, observers repeatedly evaluate reports from socioeconomically close and distant counterparts and can punish or reward them without affecting their own payoffs. We classify participants into three socioeconomic tiers using (i) a contextual measure based on average income in the locality of residence and (ii) a relative measure capturing individual income relative to the locality average. To summarise dishonest reporting patterns in this private-report environment, we introduce an observer-level proxy of suspicious reports. Results show that enforcement responds sharply to this proxy, as observers punish more and reward less as suspicion rises. Whether enforcement is socially selective depends on how distance is measured. Under the contextual measure, we find little evidence that close and distant counterparts are treated differently at comparable suspicion levels. Under the relative measure, selectivity emerges through responsiveness: punishment escalates more and rewards drop more strongly as suspicion increases when counterparts are socioeconomically distant. Finally, decomposing pairings by socioeconomic tiers reveals asymmetric enforcement along the hierarchy: holding suspicion constant, observers punish more and reward less when the counterpart is below them in socioeconomic status. In sum, the paper shows that how we measure socioeconomic distance is relevant for norm enforcement—highlighting a channel through which enforcement can reproduce inequality. |
| Abstract: | Nous étudions comment les disparités socioéconomiques influencent l'application des normes lorsqu'un individu observe la malhonnêteté d'un tiers. Dans une expérience en ligne de type « Die-under-the-Cup » (DUTC), menée auprès d'un échantillon de 720 participants de la population française, divers sur les plans socioéconomique et géographique, les observateurs évaluent à plusieurs reprises les déclarations de partenaires socialement proches ou socialement éloignés sur le plan socioéconomique, et peuvent les punir ou les récompenser sans que cela n'affecte leurs propres gains. Nous classons les participants en trois catégories socioéconomiques à l'aide (i) d'une mesure contextuelle fondée sur le revenu moyen de la localité de résidence et (ii) d'une mesure relative capturant le revenu individuel par rapport à la moyenne de la localité. Afin de résumer les schémas de déclaration malhonnête dans cet environnement de déclaration privée, nous introduisons un indicateur au niveau de l'observateur de déclarations suspectes. Les résultats montrent que l'application des normes réagit fortement à cet indicateur : les observateurs punissent davantage et récompensent moins à mesure que la suspicion augmente. Le caractère socialement sélectif de l'application des normes dépend toutefois de la façon dont la distance est mesurée. Avec la mesure contextuelle, nous trouvons peu d'éléments indiquant que les partenaires proches et éloignés sont traités différemment à niveaux de suspicion comparables. Avec la mesure relative, la sélectivité apparaît via la réactivité : la punition s'intensifie davantage et les récompenses diminuent plus fortement, à mesure que la suspicion augmente, lorsque les partenaires sont socioéconomiquement éloignés. Enfin, en décomposant les appariements par catégories socioéconomiques, nous mettons en évidence une application asymétrique le long de la hiérarchie : à suspicion constante, les observateurs punissent davantage et récompensent moins lorsque le partenaire est situé plus bas qu'eux dans la hiérarchie socioéconomique. En somme, l'article montre que la manière dont on mesure la distance socioéconomique est déterminante pour l'application des normes, et met en lumière un canal par lequel cette application peut contribuer à reproduire les inégalités. |
| Keywords: | socioeconomic status, Social closeness, norm enforcement, observability, third-party punishment, third-party reward, income levels, Socioeconomic inequality |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05368602 |
| By: | Alfio Giarlotta; M. Ali Khan; Angelo Enrico Petralia; Francesco Reito |
| Abstract: | In mainstream neoclassical economics, utility maximization is the only engine of individual action, and the other or the social, if it is modeled for decisions deemed fundamental, it is done as a tacit externality parameter affecting an agent's maximized payoff. And even when hitched to a social reference point, a fully decisive and immediate response is invariably assumed. In this paper, we propose a non-standard articulation of the trade-off between personal utility and social distance, one motivated by experimental evidence from psychology, management science, and economics. Our approach deconstructs non-recurrent consumer choice to two stages: a non-decisive first stage in which a binary relation, called one-many ordering, yields an interval, the consideration set, to which the deferred choice is confined; a decisive second stage in which the distance from the average social choice, and future social expectations, are taken into account in present utility. Finally, we embed this indecisive consumer in an exploratory game-theoretic setting, and show that indecisiveness and choice deferral may cause social loss. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.14631 |
| By: | Kovalchuk, Anna |
| Abstract: | As financial decision‐making increasingly shifts toward algorithmic co‐pilot models, the psychological dynamics of human–algorithm collaboration remain insufficiently understood. This study examines defensive attribution mechanisms in financial trading, focusing on how individuals assign responsibility and experience regret under varying outcomes. A custom‐built trading simulator was used (N = 88; 1, 320 incentivized trials), and behavior was analyzed using linear mixed‐effects models. The results reveal a robust self‐serving bias expressed through two distinct processes. Responsibility attribution was high for gains but declined sharply after losses, while perceived algorithm influence increased following failures, indicating retrospective inflation of the algorithm’s role. Regret exhibited a structural asymmetry: loss‐related regret was strongly dispositional, whereas gain‐related regret was situational. These patterns suggest that negative outcomes activate stable self‐evaluative tendencies, while positive outcomes elicit more context‐dependent responses. Crucially, restoring decision autonomy significantly reduced emotional distress after losses. Participants who chose to ignore the algorithm experienced lower regret, indicating that agency serves as a psychological buffer that protects self‐image more effectively than compliance with external advice. The findings imply that financial interfaces should avoid full automation and instead prioritize meaningful user engagement to preserve psychological ownership of decisions. |
| Date: | 2026–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:46zxq_v1 |
| By: | Bergolo, Marcelo (IECON, Universidad de la República); Leites, Martin (IECON, Universidad de la República); Perez-Truglia, Ricardo (Anderson, UCLA); Strehl-Pessina, Matias (University of California, Santa Barbara) |
| Abstract: | Why do some individuals evade taxes while others do not? We study this question using administrative tax records from Uruguay linked to a tailored survey of taxpayers. Using third-party reports, we measure individual income under-reporting as an indicator of evasion. We then examine how three factors predict who evades: social preferences (e.g., honesty measured through incentivized laboratory games), peers (e.g., the behavior of current and former coworkers), and economic factors (e.g., the marginal tax rate). We find that social preferences have little power to predict evasion, while economic factors matter more and peer behavior is the strongest predictor. |
| Keywords: | tax evasion, social preferences, beliefs |
| JEL: | C93 H26 K34 K42 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18387 |
| By: | Klaus Gründler; Michael Lamla; Niklas Potrafke; Timo Wochner |
| Abstract: | Households often struggle to understand policy interventions, limiting the effectiveness of policy transmission. We study how economic policy signals reach and influence households, focusing on the role of professional economists as interpretive intermediaries. When policy signals are complex and households face attentional limits, experts help filter and explain the information. Using a series of large-scale cross-national expert surveys and representative household experiments in Germany during the 2022–23 inflation surge, we show that (i) experts actively update and interpret monetary policy signals, (ii) their policy interpretations influence household expectations and spending decisions, and (iii) households prefer expert interpretations over direct communication from policymakers. Our findings highlight a previously overlooked transmission channel, suggesting that expert intermediation can substantially enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy communication. |
| Keywords: | economic experts, economic policy, macroeconomic expectations, monetary policy, belief formation, cross-national experiments |
| JEL: | E31 E71 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12492 |
| By: | Foltyn, Richard (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Olsson, Jonna (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | Do large language models (LLMs) provide gender-neutral financial advice? We answer this question by prompting 33 widely used LLMs from five vendors, varying only a single word in otherwise identical prompts: “man” versus “woman.” We find that women are advised to allocate 1.8 percentage points less to equity funds than men; this gap persists across vendors, model generations, and model complexity. Providing richer investor information attenuates but does not entirely eliminate the gender gap. Since even modest allocation differences imply persistent return differentials, algorithmic financial advice can shape wealth accumulation across demographic groups. |
| Keywords: | Algorithmic bias; Gender bias; Large Language Models; Portfolio allocation |
| JEL: | C01 G11 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2026_004 |