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on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Hager, Anselm (Humboldt University Berlin); Kazakbaeva, Elnura (Evidence Central Asia); Hensel, Lukas (Peking University); Esenaliev, Damir (ISDC - International Security and Development Center) |
| Abstract: | Social norms are crucial drivers of human behavior. However, misperceptions of others’ opinions may sustain norms and conforming behavior even if a majority opposes the norm. Privately shifting individuals’ beliefs about true societal support may be insufficient to change behavior if others are perceived to continue to hold incorrect beliefs (“lack of mutual knowledge”). We conduct a field experiment with 5, 201 women in Kyrgyzstan to test whether creating mutual knowledge about social norms affects how perceived social norms influence behavior. We show that providing information about societal support for female political activism alone does not affect women’s political engagement. However, when perceived mutual knowledge is created, the effect of information about social norms increases significantly. Using vignette experiments, we show that the effect of mutual knowledge on social punishment is a plausible mechanism behind the behavioral impact. These findings suggest that higher-order beliefs about social norms are an important force linking social norms and behavior. |
| Keywords: | social norms, higher-order beliefs, field experiment, political activism |
| JEL: | D70 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17748 |
| By: | Bonander, Carl (University of Gothenburg); Hammar, Olle (Linnaeus University); Jakobsson, Niklas (Karlstad University); Bensch, Gunther (RWI); Holzmeister, Felix (University of Innsbruck); Brodeur, Abel (University of Ottawa) |
| Abstract: | Islam (2019) reports results from a randomized field experiment in Bangladesh that examines the effects of parent-teacher meetings on student test scores in primary schools. The reported findings suggest strong positive effects across multiple subjects. In this report, we demonstrate that the school-level randomization cannot have been conducted as the author claims. Specifically, we show that the nine included Bangladeshi unions all have a share of either 0% or 100% treated or control schools. Additionally, we uncover irregularities in baseline scores, which for the same students and subjects vary systematically across the author’s data files in ways that are unique to either the treatment or control group. We also discovered data on two unreported outcomes and data collected from the year before the study began. Results using these data cast further doubt on the validity of the original study. Moreover, in a survey asking parents to evaluate the parent-teacher meetings, we find that parents in the control schools were more positive about this intervention than those in the treated schools. We also find undisclosed connections to two additional RCTs. |
| Keywords: | field experiments, student outcomes, reproduction, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | B41 C12 I25 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17781 |
| By: | Tekleselassie, Tsegay (Wellesley College); Witte, Marc J. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Radbruch, Jonas (Humboldt University Berlin); Hensel, Lukas (Peking University); Isphording, Ingo E. (IZA) |
| Abstract: | We conduct a field experiment with job seekers to investigate how feed- back influences job search and labor market outcomes. Job seekers who re- ceive feedback on their ability compared to other job seekers update their beliefs and increase their search effort. Specifically, initially underconfident individuals intensify their job search. In contrast, overconfident individuals do not adjust their behavior. Moreover, job seekers’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for feedback predicts treatment effects: only among underconfident individuals with positive WTP, we observe significant increases in both search effort and search success. We present suggestive evidence that this pattern arises from heterogeneity in how job seekers perceive the relevance of relative cognitive ability to job search returns. While the intervention appears cost-effective, job seekers’ WTP remains insufficient to cover its costs. |
| Keywords: | willingness-to-pay, feedback, overconfidence, job search, field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 J24 J64 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17761 |
| By: | Galchenko, Valeria; Zubanov, Nick; Wong, Ho Lun; Zhou, Xiang |
| Abstract: | In a field experiment in China, we informed randomly selected workers that others received a higher wage for the same work. Compared to the uninformed but equally paid workers, the informed perceived their pay as less fair, but, surprisingly, increased their output without reducing quality. Although we did not communicate reasons for the pay difference, a post-experiment survey revealed that workers developed their own, predominantly benign, explanations, the leading one being higher quality of the better-paid workers. We validated our experimental results with a follow-up survey of 1100 people of working age in China whom we briefed about our findings and asked for their explanations. 57% believed that the informed workers perceived their higher-paid peers to be better workers and aspired to match them. When asked what they would do in a similar situation, 75% replied that they would work harder as well. Our results hint at the importance of culture in moderating behavioral responses to unequal pay, not all of them necessarily negative. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:316449 |
| By: | Larissa Fuchs; Matthias Heinz; Pia Pinger; Max Thon |
| Abstract: | Job advertisements are a key tool for companies to attract talent. We conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in which we vary the content of job advertisements for STEM positions at one of the largest technology firms in Europe. Specifically, we examine how emphasizing job flexibility and career advancement in job ads causally affects the firm's applicant pool. We find substantial treatment effects for entry-level positions, but not for senior-level roles. Highlighting job flexibility increases the total number of applicants – both female and male – while emphasizing career advancement increases applications only from men. Notably, both effects are entirely driven by applicants residing outside the federal state where the firm is located. In a separate survey experiment conducted among STEM students, we find that the content of job advertisements influences young professionals' perceptions of the work environment. In particular, highlighting career advancement shifts beliefs toward better career benefits, but also toward a lower work-life balance. |
| Keywords: | beliefs, hiring, field experiments, survey experiment, job advertisements, gender |
| JEL: | M51 M52 D22 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_683 |
| By: | Seoyeon Chang (School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University); Sonoko Ishikawa (School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University); Naoki Miyamoto (School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University); Ryo Takahashi (Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara) |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether gender bias in health communication reduces the effectiveness of information provision and explores the mechanism behind it. Specifically, it investigates whether the bias is driven by statistical discrimination—misperceptions about women’s competence—or by tastebased discrimination. We conducted a randomized controlled trial in Cambodia, where participants watched a video featuring either a male or female health instructor explaining the benefits of iron supplements for anemia prevention. To test the mechanism, half of those assigned to the female instructor condition received a corrective message addressing misperceptions about women’s abilities. The results show that willingness to pay for the supplement was significantly lower when the information was delivered by a female instructor, but this gap disappeared when the corrective message was provided. Similar patterns were observed in a list experiment measuring implicit bias. These findings suggest that gender bias reduces the effectiveness of health communication and is primarily driven by misperceptions about women’s competence rather than by taste-based discrimination. |
| Keywords: | anemia, gender bias, discrimination, misperception, list experiment |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2501 |
| By: | Preuss, Marcel (Cornell University); Reyes, Germán (Middlebury College); Somerville, Jason (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Wu, Joy (University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | Elites disproportionately influence policymaking, yet little is known about their fairness and efficiency preferences–key determinants of support for redistributive policies. We investigate these preferences using an incentivized lab experiment with a group of future elites–Ivy League MBA students. We find that elites implement more unequal earnings distributions than the average American, are highly sensitive to both merit-based inequality and efficiency costs of redistribution, and are less likely to hold strict meritocratic views. These findings provide novel insights into how elites' redistributive preferences may shape high levels of inequality and limited redistributive policy in the United States. |
| Keywords: | meritocracy, efficiency, elite control, fairness ideals, redistributive preferences, MBA students, inequality, experimental economics |
| JEL: | D63 C91 H23 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17788 |
| By: | Timo Promann; Jan-Patrick Mayer; Gerd Muehlheusser; Andreas Roider; Eugen Tereschenko; Niklas Wallmeier |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an oTree addon that allows to include face-to-face communication in the form of a video chat in online group experiments. Group decisions, as opposed to individual decision-making, have recently gained considerable attention. The open-source addon is easy to use, exhibits a lean design, and allows to record communication patterns. It has already been successfully employed in a number of group experiments. We explain how to implement the addon and provide a number of recommendations for smooth functionality. |
| Keywords: | group decisions, video chat, online experiments, experimental software, oTree |
| JEL: | C88 C92 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11734 |
| By: | Thomas Dohmen; Georgios Gerasimou |
| Abstract: | We ask if participants in a choice experiment with repeated presentation of the same menus and no feedback provision: (i) learn to behave in ways that are closer to the predictions of ordinal and expected utility theory under strict preferences; or (ii) exhibit overall behaviour that is consistent with utility theory under weak preferences. To answer these questions we design and implemented a free-choice lab experiment with 15 distinct menus. Each menu contained two, three and four lotteries with three monetary outcomes, and was shown five times. Subjects were not forced to make an active choice at any menu but could avoid/defer doing so at a positive expected cost. Among our 308 subjects from the UK and Germany, significantly more were ordinal- and expected-utility maximizers in their last 15 than in their first 15 identical decision problems. Around a quarter and a fifth of all subjects, respectively, decided in those modes throughout the experiment, with nearly half revealing non-trivial indifferences. A considerable overlap is found between those consistently rational individuals and the ones who satisfied core principles of random utility theory. Finally, choice consistency is positively correlated with cognitive ability, while subjects who learned to maximize utility were more cognitively able than those who did not. We discuss potential implications of our study’s novel set of findings. |
| Keywords: | Ordinal utility; expected utility; learning; indifference; avoidance/deferral; cognitive ability. |
| JEL: | D01 D81 D83 D91 C91 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_687 |
| By: | Kjelsrud, Anders (University of Oslo); Kotsadam, Andreas (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Rogeberg, Ole (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Brodeur, Abel (University of Ottawa) |
| Abstract: | Siddique et al. (2024a) report massive effects of a mobile phone-based health awareness campaign in a randomized field experiment conducted in rural Bangladesh and India during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both awareness and compliance with preventive COVID-19 measures were higher when the information was received by voice call rather than text, and even higher for those receiving both. Reproducing the analyses we identify many severe issues, including that the study did not in fact randomize treatment assignment. We further find implausible response patterns in the data, undisclosed sampling criteria that negate the study motivation, and an (unreported) re-treatment where some of the respondents were also included in a separate study that provided additional COVID-19 information immediately before the last data collection. |
| Keywords: | health awareness, replication, COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17783 |
| By: | Koch, Alexander K. (Aarhus University); Nafziger, Julia (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | Using an online experiment with 5, 762 US participants, we investigate whether individuals who seek competition face inaccurate perceptions of their behaviors and personality and whether women are held to different standards than men. We find that evaluators perceive competitive women as less social, more career-oriented, and less (stereotypically) feminine and more (stereotypically) masculine than they actually are or state to be. However, competitive men face similarly inaccurate beliefs and hence belief accuracy does not differ for men and women. Nevertheless, our findings point to social penalties that competitive women may experience -- not for seeking competition itself (which is socially accepted), but because the behaviors associated with seeking competition violate gender-specific norms. Meanwhile, men encounter a double-edged sword: while seeking competition earns them esteem, both, behaviors associated with seeking and avoiding competition can lead to social penalties. |
| Keywords: | stereotypes, beliefs, competitiveness, gender, norms |
| JEL: | J16 D90 C90 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17840 |
| By: | Levi, Eugenio (Link Campus University); Bayerlein, Michael (German Institute for International and Security Affairs); Grimalda, Gianluca (University of Passau); Reggiani, Tommaso G. (Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | We study how preferences for migration-related narratives differ between private and public contexts and how social media fuel opinion polarization. Using a German representative sample (n=1, 226), we found that individuals, especially from the left and center, avoided publicly endorsing anti-migration narratives. In an experiment on Twitter (n=19, 989) we created four Twitter profiles, each endorsing one of the narratives. Far-right users exhibited markedly different engagement patterns. While initial public endorsements, measured by follow-back rates, aligned with private preferences, social media interactions amplified support for the most hostile and polarizing narrative. We conclude that social media significantly distort private preferences and amplify polarization. |
| Keywords: | immigration, narratives, political polarization, economic reciprocity, survey experiment, field experiment, group identity, social media, Twitter |
| JEL: | D72 D91 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17749 |
| By: | Sofoklis Goulas; Rigissa Megalokonomou; Panagiotis Sotirakopoulos |
| Abstract: | We examine teachers’ perceptions toward top performing students and their role model influence on others in an online survey-based experiment. We randomly expose teachers to profiles of top performing students and inquire whether they consider the profiled top performers to be influential role models. These profiles varied by gender and field of study (STEM or Non-STEM). Our findings show that teachers perceive top-performing girls as more influential peer role models compared to top-performing boys ( ß = 0.289; p |
| Keywords: | teacher gender stereotypes, randomized controlled trial, peer role models, STEM |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11710 |
| By: | Martin Dufwenberg; Katja Görlitz; Christina Gravert |
| Abstract: | Peer evaluation tournaments are common in academia, the arts, and corporate environments. They make use of the expert knowledge that academics or team members have in assessing their peers’ performance. However, rampant opportunities for cheating may throw a wrench in the process unless, somehow, players have a preference for honest reporting. Building on Dufwenberg and Dufwenberg’s (2018) theory of perceived cheating aversion, we develop a multi-player model in which players balance the utility of winning against the disutility of being identified as a cheater. We derive a set of predictions, and test these in a controlled laboratory experiment. |
| Keywords: | psychological game, cheating, tournaments, laboratory experiment |
| JEL: | C91 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11720 |
| By: | Goulas, Sofoklis (Brookings Institution); Megalokonomou, Rigissa (Monash University); Sotirakopoulos, Panagiotis (affiliation not available) |
| Abstract: | We examine teachers’ perceptions toward top performing students and their role model influence on others in an online survey-based experiment. We randomly expose teachers to profiles of top performing students and inquire whether they consider the profiled top performers to be influential role models. These profiles varied by gender and field of study (STEM or Non-STEM). Our findings show that teachers perceive top-performing girls as more influential peer role models compared to boys (?= 0.289; p |
| Keywords: | teacher gender stereotypes, randomized controlled trial, peer role models, STEM |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J16 D83 C90 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17733 |
| By: | Ao Wang; Shaoda Wang; Xiaoyang Ye |
| Abstract: | Sequential choices are ubiquitous in daily life, yet making optimal decisions in such settings—where properly accounting for option value is crucial—can be challenging. This paper provides field experimental evidence on the neglect of option value in high-stakes decisions and quantifies the associated welfare consequences. We study a centralized college admissions system where students submit brief preference lists. Although option value should encourage riskier top choices, many students are overly cautious and fail to include safer lower-ranked options. We argue that directed cognition—making myopic decisions while ignoring the value of subsequent options—explains this behavior. An in-field experiment targeting a key framing-based prediction shows that about 50% of applicants exhibit this pattern, especially among disadvantaged students. Counterfactual analysis suggests that de-biasing interventions could significantly reduce outcome gaps and improve overall efficiency. |
| JEL: | D47 D81 D91 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33704 |
| By: | Leduc, Elisabeth (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Tojerow, Ilan (Université Libre de Bruxelles) |
| Abstract: | We partner with a Public Employment Service to examine whether jobseekers can be encouraged to reskill for shortage occupations. In a large-scale field experiment involving 100, 000 recently unemployed individuals, we provide information on shortage occupations and related training opportunities. The intervention increased participation in transversal training courses by 6%, but did not boost enrolment in occupational training for shortage jobs. Jobseekers also shifted their search towards high-demand occupations, yet employment remained unchanged. These findings suggest that while low-cost informational interventions can influence job search and training behaviour, different approaches are likely needed to drive substantial reskilling among jobseekers. |
| Keywords: | Labour shortages, Training, Job search, RCT, Unemployment |
| JEL: | J24 J62 J68 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17731 |
| By: | Brodeur, Abel (University of Ottawa); Fiala, Lenka (University of Bergen); Fitzgerald, Jack (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Kujansuu, Essi (University of Innsbruck); Valenta, David (University of Ottawa); Rogeberg, Ole (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Bensch, Gunther (RWI) |
| Abstract: | Vlassopoulos et al. (2024) find that after providing two hours of telephone counseling over three months, a sample of Bangladeshi women saw significant reductions in stress and depression after ten months. We find three anomalies. First, estimates are almost entirely driven by reverse-scored survey items, which are handled inconsistently both in the code and in the field. Second, participants in this experiment are reused from multiple prior experiments conducted by the paper’s authors, and estimates are extremely sensitive to the experiment from which participants originate. Finally, inconsistencies and irregularities in raw survey files raise doubts about the data. |
| Keywords: | reproduction, replication, mental health, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | B41 C12 I12 I18 J16 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17782 |
| By: | Fabrizio Dell'Acqua; Charles Ayoubi; Hila Lifshitz; Raffaella Sadun; Ethan Mollick; Lilach Mollick; Yi Han; Jeff Goldman; Hari Nair; Stewart Taub; Karim Lakhani |
| Abstract: | We examine how artificial intelligence transforms the core pillars of collaboration—performance, expertise sharing, and social engagement—through a pre-registered field experiment with 776 professionals at Procter & Gamble, a global consumer packaged goods company. Working on real product innovation challenges, professionals were randomly assigned to work either with or without AI, and either individually or with another professional in new product development teams. Our findings reveal that AI significantly enhances performance: individuals with AI matched the performance of teams without AI, demonstrating that AI can effectively replicate certain benefits of human collaboration. Moreover, AI breaks down functional silos. Without AI, R&D professionals tended to suggest more technical solutions, while Commercial professionals leaned towards commercially-oriented proposals. Professionals using AI produced balanced solutions, regardless of their professional background. Finally, AI’s language-based interface prompted more positive self-reported emotional responses among participants, suggesting it can fulfill part of the social and motivational role traditionally offered by human teammates. Our results suggest that AI adoption at scale in knowledge work reshapes not only performance but also how expertise and social connectivity manifest within teams, compelling organizations to rethink the very structure of collaborative work. |
| JEL: | M15 M2 O3 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33641 |
| By: | Ben Weidmann; Yixian Xu; David J. Deming |
| Abstract: | We show that leadership skill with artificially intelligent (AI) agents predicts leadership skill with human groups. In a large pre-registered lab experiment, human leaders worked with AI agents to solve problems. Their performance on this “AI leadership test” was strongly correlated (ρ=0.81) with their causal impact as leaders of human teams, which we estimate by repeatedly randomly assigning leaders to groups of human followers and measuring team performance. Successful leaders of both humans and AI agents ask more questions and engage in more conversational turn-taking; they score higher on measures of social intelligence, fluid intelligence, and decision-making skill, but do not differ in gender, age, ethnicity or education. Our findings indicate that AI agents can be effective proxies for human participants in social experiments, which greatly simplifies the measurement of leadership and teamwork skills. |
| JEL: | J24 M54 O30 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33662 |
| By: | Ma, Yue; Fairlie, Robert; Loyalka, Prashant; Rozelle, Scott |
| Keywords: | Development Studies, Economics, Applied Economics, Human Society, Applied economics, Development studies |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt99m4r92g |
| By: | Dirk Leffrang (Paderborn University); Oliver Müller (Paderborn University) |
| Abstract: | Despite the impressive capabilities of Artificial Intelligence (AI), concerns about its environmental impact continue to grow. However, organizations rarely implement sustainable AI practices in real-world settings. Prior research has predominantly focused on promoting sustainability-related information for non-AI products or exploring technical approaches for AI applications. This paper identifies performance uncertainty as a key factor distinguishing AI from prior technologies. Drawing on goal-setting theory, we investigate the impact of sustainability information and an unmet performance goal on AI retraining decisions. We conducted three incentivized online between-subjects experiments with 343 individuals with data science experience. Our results indicate that visualizing sustainability information increases the likelihood of sustainable AI choices. However, presenting an unmet performance goal decreases the likelihood and offsets the beneficial impact of sustainability information. These findings support sustainability initiatives, AI evaluations, and future research by emphasizing that while sustainability matters, achieving it requires appropriate performance goals for AI. |
| Keywords: | sustainability, artificial intelligence, goal-setting, laboratory experiment |
| JEL: | Q01 D91 Q55 C91 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:135 |
| By: | Giulio Ecchia; Natalia Montinari; Raimondello Orsini; Sveva Vitellozzi |
| Abstract: | Firm performance depends critically on the efficient allocation of tasks across employees. Yet, task assignment decisions are often shaped not only by productivity considerations but also by managerial biases and gender stereotypes—frequently resulting in women being disproportionately assigned low-promotability, female-stereotyped tasks. This paper investigates whether making workers' task preferences visible to managers can reduce gender-stereotypical assignments and improve overall outcomes. We conduct two complementary experiments. In the first, participants act as workers, completing real-effort tasks and reporting their task preferences. In the second, a separate group of participants from the same subject pool takes on the role of managers and assigns tasks to pairs of workers under varying information conditions. In the control condition—where managers lack access to workers' preferences—task assignments are more likely to reflect gender stereotypes. In contrast, when managers are informed of workers' preferences, stereotypical assignments decrease, and managerial earnings improve. We also find that preference-informed task allocation leads to higher managerial earnings, suggesting that reducing gender bias not only promotes fairness but also enhances organizational efficiency. Our findings highlight the potential of low-cost informational interventions to promote fairer and more effective task allocation practices. |
| JEL: | J16 J71 M12 C91 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1202 |
| By: | Erzo F.P. Luttmer; Priscila de Oliveira; Dmitry Taubinsky |
| Abstract: | This paper studies psychological biases in take-up of annuities, using an incentivized experiment with a probability-based sample (N = 3, 038). Choosing an annuity was payoff-maximizing in the experiment at all prices, but take-up was incomplete and price elastic. Reformulating decisions as insurance against a “bad” outcome rather than insurance against “longevity risk” did not increase take-up. Instead, we find substantial failures of contingent reasoning: participants under-appreciated how annuitization mitigated the need for less-efficient means of saving for retirement. Increasing the salience of the interaction with savings decisions, or eliminating the need to think through this interaction altogether, substantially increased annuity take-up. |
| JEL: | D14 D15 D9 G5 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33654 |
| By: | Billur Aksoy; Lester R. Lusher; Scott E. Carrell |
| Abstract: | Phone usage in the classroom has been linked to worsened academic outcomes. We present findings from a field experiment conducted at a large public university in partnership with an app marketed as a soft commitment device that provides incentives to reduce phone use in the classroom. We find that app usage led to improvements in classroom focus, attendance, and overall academic satisfaction. Analysis of time spent outside the classroom suggests a potential substitution effect: students using the app allocated less time to study, particularly on campus. Overall, though statistically insignificant, we find improvements in transcript grades associated with app usage. |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33703 |
| By: | Högn, Celina (affiliation not available); Mayer, Lea (affiliation not available); Rincke, Johannes (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg); Winkler, Erwin (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines preferences for gender diversity among co-workers. Using stated-choice experiments with 5, 400 PhD students and university students in Germany, we uncover a substantial willingness to pay (WTP) for gender diversity of up to 5% of earnings on average. Importantly, we find that women have a much higher WTP for gender diversity than men. While the WTP differs by career ambition, competitiveness, and family preferences, we find that gender differences in traits and preferences cannot explain gender differences in the WTP for diversity. Our findings provide an explanation for differential sorting of men and women into high-profile jobs based on the share of female co-workers. |
| Keywords: | gender differences, preferences, willingness to pay, stated choice experiment, gender diversity |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J31 J33 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17750 |
| By: | Leonardo Bursztyn (University of Chicago & NBER); Matthew Gentzkow (Stanford University & NBER); Rafael Jiménez-Durán (Bocconi University, IGIER, CESifo, & Chicago Booth Stigler Center); Aaron Leonard; Filip Milojević (University of Chicago); Christopher Roth (University of Cologne, NHH Norwegian School of Economics, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, CESifo, & CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Market definition is essential for antitrust analysis, but challenging in settings with network effects, where substitution patterns depend on changes in network size. To address this challenge, we conduct an incentivized experiment to measure substitution patterns for TikTok, a popular social media platform. Our experiment, conducted during a time of high uncertainty about a potential U.S. TikTok ban, compares changes in the valuation of other social apps under individual and collective TikTok deactivations. Consistent with a simple framework, the valuations of alternative social apps increase more in response to a collective TikTok ban than to an individual TikTok deactivation. Our framework and estimates highlight that individual and collective treatments can even lead to qualitatively different conclusions about which alternative goods are substitutes. |
| Keywords: | Markets, Network Goods, Coordination, Collective Interventions |
| JEL: | D83 D91 P16 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:363 |
| By: | Keppeler, Florian; Borchert, Jana; Pedersen, Mogens Jin; Nielsen, Vibeke Lehmann |
| Abstract: | Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications are transforming public sector decision-making. However, most research conceptualizes AI as a form of specialized algorithmic decision support tool. In contrast, this study introduces the concept of human-AI ensembles, where humans and AI tackle the same tasks together, rather than specializing in certain parts. We argue that this is particularly relevant for many public sector decisions, where neither human nor AI-based decision-making has a clear advantage over the other in terms of legitimacy, efficacy, or legality. We illustrate this design theory within access to public employment, focusing on two key areas: (a) the potential of ensembling human and AI to reduce biases and (b) the inclinations of public managers to use AI advice. Study 1 presents evidence from the assessment of real-life job candidates (n = 2, 000) at the intersection of gender and ethnicity by public managers compared to AI. The results indicate that ensembled decision- making may alleviate ethnic biases. Study 2 examines how receptive public managers are to AI advice. Results from a pre-registered survey experiment involving managers (n = 538 with 4 observations each) show that decision-makers, when reminded of the unlawfulness of hiring discrimination, prioritize AI advice over human advice. |
| Date: | 2025–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:2yf6r_v2 |
| By: | James J. Choi; Dong Huang; Zhishu Yang; Qi Zhang |
| Abstract: | How good is AI at persuading humans to perform costly actions? We study calls made to get delinquent consumer borrowers to repay. Regression discontinuity and a randomized experiment reveal that AI is substantially less effective than human callers. Replacing AI with humans six days into delinquency closes much of the gap. But borrowers initially contacted by AI have repaid 1% less of the initial late payment one year later and are more likely to miss subsequent payments than borrowers who were always called by humans. AI’s lesser ability to extract promises that feel binding may contribute to the performance gap. |
| JEL: | D14 G4 G51 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33669 |
| By: | Piccolo, Jessica (University of Padova); Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (University of California, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how homeownership status shapes attention to inflation and its impact on durable consumption. Using randomized controlled trials on U.S. households (2021–2023), we document systematic heterogeneity in responses to inflation-related information. Homeowners exhibit greater baseline awareness and update their expectations less than renters. Exploiting exogenous variation in inflation expectations induced by the treatments, we find that homeowners adjust durable spending significantly, whereas renters do not. These results highlight homeownership as a key factor in the formation of inflation expectations and their influence on economic behavior. |
| Keywords: | homeownership, mortgages, inflation expectations, durable consumption |
| JEL: | D12 D84 E21 E31 R21 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17770 |
| By: | Jizhou Liu; Azeem M. Shaikh; Panos Toulis |
| Abstract: | Randomized experiments are increasingly employed in two-sided markets, such as buyer-seller platforms, to evaluate treatment effects from marketplace interventions. These experiments must reflect the underlying two-sided market structure in their design (e.g., sellers and buyers), making them particularly challenging to analyze. In this paper, we propose a randomization inference framework to analyze outcomes from such two-sided experiments. Our approach is finite-sample valid under sharp null hypotheses for any test statistic and maintains asymptotic validity under weak null hypotheses through studentization. Moreover, we provide heuristic guidance for choosing among multiple valid randomization tests to enhance statistical power, which we demonstrate empirically. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of our methodology through a series of simulation studies. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.06215 |
| By: | Flavio Cunha; Qinyou Hu; Andrea Salvati; Kenneth Wolpin; Rui Zeng |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the Jumpstart Program (JSP), a parenting intervention implemented by a school district in the Houston area to enhance school readiness among economically disadvantaged three-year-old children. Unlike many early childhood programs typically tested in controlled research settings, JSP leverages existing school district resources for scalability and practical application. We conducted a three-year randomized controlled trial to measure the program’s impact on child cognitive outcomes, parental engagement, and mechanisms of change. The results indicate improvements in children’s performance on curriculum-aligned assessments and modest gains in general cognitive readiness as measured by the Bracken School Readiness Assessment. Furthermore, treatment group parents demonstrated increased reading frequency with their children, underscoring enhanced parental involvement as a crucial mechanism behind the program’s success. We employed a structural model to analyze both the direct effects of JSP and its indirect effects through changes in the marginal productivity of investments or preferences via habit formation. Our analysis concludes that 75% of the program’s impact is attributed to direct effects, while 25% is mediated through changes in habit formation in parental investments. Our research underscores the potential of scalable, real-world interventions to bridge socio-economic gaps in early childhood development and inform the design of effective educational policies. |
| JEL: | C51 I24 I32 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33537 |
| By: | Benjamin Christoffersen; Arvid Hoffmann; Zwetelina Iliewa; Lena Jaroszek |
| Abstract: | We examine how and why context influences experiential learning, comparing professional and private-context stock market experiences. We find opposing patterns: In professional contexts, experiential learning exhibits a primacy bias, where sticky early experiences cause an underreaction to subsequent experiences. In contrast, in private contexts, a recency bias causes beliefs to fluctuate excessively over time. To identify the causal effect of context, we leverage (i) panel data on the dynamics of context-related experiences and expectations of finance professionals and (ii) experimental data on investment choices. Our experimental design allows us to identify the cognitive mechanisms underlying the documented context dependence of experience effects. |
| Keywords: | experience effects, finance professionals, reinforcement learning, salience, attention |
| JEL: | D83 D84 G02 G17 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_684 |
| By: | Sandro Ambuehl; B. Douglas Bernheim; Tony Q. Fan; Zachary Freitas-Groff |
| Abstract: | Why is in-kind aid a prominent feature of welfare systems? We present a lab-in-the-field experiment involving members of the general U.S. population and SNAP recipients. After documenting a widespread desire to limit recipients’ choices, we quantify the relative importance of (i) welfarist motives, (ii) utility or disutility derived from curtailing another’s autonomy, and (iii) absolutist attitudes concerning the appropriate form of aid. Choices primarily reflect the two non-welfarist motives. Because people systematically misperceive recipient preferences, their interventions are more restrictive than they intend. Interventionist preferences and non-welfarist motives are more pronounced among the political right, particularly when recipients are black. |
| JEL: | D31 D78 H19 I38 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33688 |
| By: | Dirk Leffrang (Paderborn University); Nina Passlack (University of Bamberg); Oliver Müller (Paderborn University); Oliver Posegga (University of Bamberg) |
| Abstract: | Despite the increasing proliferation of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI), systems like large language models (LLMs) can sometimes present misleading or false information as true – a problem known as "hallucinations." As GenAI systems become more widespread and accessible to the general public, understanding how AI literacy influences advice-taking from imperfect GenAI advice is crucial. Drawing on the correspondence bias, we study how individuals with varying AI literacy levels react to GenAI providing bad advice. Gathering empirical evidence through an online programming experiment, we find that AI-literate individuals take less advice, especially while receiving bad advice, but not exclusively. We outline how correspondence bias can explain these variations, reconciling mixed findings of prior studies on AI literacy. Our research thus contributes a holistic perspective on the beneficial and detrimental mistrust through AI literacy to education, integration, and evaluation programs of AI, highlighting the dangers of naive evaluation strategies. |
| Keywords: | AI literacy, artificial intelligence, AI education, algorithm aversion |
| JEL: | D83 D91 O33 C91 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:136 |
| By: | Ioana Botea (World Bank); Markus Goldstein (Center for Global Development); Kenneth Houngbedji (DIAL, LEDa, CNRS, IRD, Université Paris-Dauphine); Florence Kondylis (World Bank); Michael O’Sullivan (World Bank); Harris Selod (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | In settings where women’s land rights are informal, the death of a husband can severely limit a widow’s access to land and her ability to remain in her home— especially in the absence of a male heir. This paper examines whether large-scale land formalization programs can improve widows’ land access. Using data from a randomized controlled trial in rural Benin, the analysis finds that widows in villages with land formalization are more likely to stay in their homes four years after the program, with the strongest effects among those without a male heir. The paper identifies two key mechanisms: enhanced community recognition of women’s land rights and greater decision-making power over land resources. These findings highlight the potential of land formalization to strengthen women’s tenure security and promote their long-term economic stability in similar settings. |
| Keywords: | property rights, land administration, gender, widowhood, intra-household insurance |
| JEL: | D23 I31 J12 J16 O17 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202503 |
| By: | Kala Krishna; Pelin Akyol; Esma Ozer |
| Abstract: | Exams are designed to rank students objectively by their abilities, including elements such as time limits, the number and difficulty of questions, and negative marking policies. Using data from a lab-in-field experiment, we develop and estimate a model of student behavior in multiple-choice exams that incorporates the effects of time constraints and use it to conduct policy analyses for designing more efficient exams in sorting students. We find that additional time benefits men more than women. Our estimated model shows that this is driven by gender differences in the signal production function for the correct answers. Time has a smaller impact on women, while ability and difficulty play a larger role. Risk aversion, in contrast to what is suggested in the literature, does not differ significantly by gender, and confidence rises with more time. Our policy experiments find that exams more effectively rank students when ranking is gender-specific and that time pressure, question difficulty, and student ability have non-monotonic effects on sorting. |
| JEL: | C69 C93 D89 I29 L0 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33679 |
| By: | Marty Haoyuan Chen; Ginger Zhe Jin |
| Abstract: | The past few years have seen a shift in many universities' admission policies from test-required to either test-optional or test-blind. This paper uses laboratory experiments to examine students' reporting behavior given their application package and the school's interpretation of non-reported standardized test scores. We find that voluntary disclosure is incomplete and selective, supporting the incentives of both partial unraveling and reverse unraveling. Subjects exhibit some ability to learn about the hidden school interpretation, though their learning is imperfect. Using a structural model of student reporting behavior, we simulate the potential tradeoff between academic preparedness and diversity in a school's admission cohort. We find that, if students have perfect information about the school's interpretation of non-reporting, test-blind is the worst and test-required is the best in both dimensions, while test-optional lies between the two extremes. When students do not have perfect information, some test-optional policies can generate more diversity than test-required, because some students with better observable attributes may underestimate the penalty on their non-reporting. This allows the school to admit more students that have worse observable attributes but report. We test the results’ robustness to a variety of extensions. |
| JEL: | D61 D63 D8 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33660 |
| By: | Ma, Ji (The University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | Large language models (LLMs) increasingly serve as human-like decision-making agents in social science and applied settings. These LLM-agents are typically assigned human-like characters and placed in real-life contexts. However, how these characters and contexts shape an LLM's behavior remains underexplored. This study proposes and tests methods for probing, quantifying, and modifying an LLM's internal representations in a Dictator Game -- a classic behavioral experiment on fairness and prosocial behavior. We extract ``vectors of variable variations'' (e.g., ``male'' to ``female'') from the LLM's internal state. Manipulating these vectors during the model's inference can substantially alter how those variables relate to the model's decision-making. This approach offers a principled way to study and regulate how social concepts can be encoded and engineered within transformer-based models, with implications for alignment, debiasing, and designing AI agents for social simulations in both academic and commercial applications. |
| Date: | 2025–04–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8p7wg_v1 |
| By: | Athaya, Haura; Tulyakul, Singha |
| Abstract: | This research aimed to develop and compare the effects of pyramid program weight training on the muscular strength of male swimmers. The sample group consisted of 36 male swimmers from Yulin Sports School in Guangxi Province, China, selected through cluster sampling. The participants were divided into two groups: an experimental group of 18 swimmers who trained using a pyramid program weight training developed by the researcher and a control group of 18 swimmers who trained using the standard weight training program at Yulin Sports School. The training lasted for eight weeks, with sessions conducted three days a week, each lasting 50 minutes. The bench press test was used to measure muscular strength. Data were analyzed by calculating the mean and standard deviation. The Paired Samples t-test was used to compare mean differences in muscular strength within the control and experimental groups before and after training. Additionally, the Independent Samples t-test compared mean differences in muscular strength between the control and experimental groups before and after training. The research results indicated that the pyramid program weight training developed by the researcher was effective and suitable. The experimental group exhibited significantly greater muscular strength than the control group, with statistical significance at the 0.05 level. Furthermore, both the experimental and control groups experienced substantial improvements in muscular strength after training compared to before training, also with statistical significance at the 0.05 level. These findings indicate that the pyramid program weight training developed is a valuable resource for enhancing muscular strength in male swimmers. It offers practical guidelines for athletes, trainers, and individuals interested in swimming to improve athletic performance in the future. |
| Date: | 2025–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:u3cjk_v1 |
| By: | Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Nabwire, Leocardia; Kramer, Berber; Trachtman, Carly; Abate, Gashaw T. |
| Abstract: | In developing countries, semi-subsistence farmers typically assume dual roles as both consumers and producers of the same crops, which shape their adoption decisions as they balance household food security with market-driven incentives. This study, conducted in eastern Uganda, employs a field experiment with two intervention arms to assess the relative importance of these factors in farmers’ decisions to adopt improved maize seed varieties. The first intervention focuses on production traits, distributing free sample packs of an improved hybrid maize variety to showcase benefits such as higher yields, pest resistance, and drought tolerance. The second intervention emphasizes consumption traits, offering cooking demonstrations and blind taste tests using flour from the same improved maize variety to highlight its taste, texture, and ease of preparation. Our findings reveal that while seed sample packs positively influenced farmers’ perceptions of both production and consumption traits, cooking demonstrations primarily affected perceptions of consumption qualities. We find some evidence that the cooking demonstrations and tasting sessions significantly boosted adoption of the improved maize seed variety promoted by the intervention. However, farmers who received seed sample packs tended to recycle the harvested grain as seed in subsequent seasons, thereby crowding out fresh seed purchases. This practice led to productivity losses, suggesting that the seed trial packs did not translate into lasting improvements in food security or increased market participation. |
| Keywords: | technology adoption; consumption; cooking; maize; Uganda; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:173943 |
| By: | Mackenzie Alston; Tatyana Deryugina; Olga Shurchkov |
| Abstract: | There is much disagreement about the extent to which financial incentives motivate study participants. We elicit preferences for being paid for completing a survey, including a one-in-twenty chance of winning a $100 electronic gift card, a guaranteed electronic gift card with the same expected value, and an option to refuse payment. More than twice as many participants chose the lottery as chose the guaranteed payment. Given that most people are risk averse, this pattern suggests that factors beyond risk preferences—such as hassle costs—influenced their decision-making. Almost 20 percent of participants actively refused payment, demonstrating low monetary motivation. We find both systematic and unobserved heterogeneity in the characteristics of who turned down payment. The propensity to refuse payment is more than four times as large among individuals 50 and older compared to younger individuals, suggesting a tradeoff between financially motivating participants and obtaining a representative sample. Overall, our results suggest that modest electronic gift card payments violate key requirements of Vernon Smith’s induced value theory. |
| JEL: | C83 C90 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33657 |
| By: | Leonardo Bursztyn; Rafael Jiménez-Durán; Aaron Leonard; Filip Milojević; Christopher Roth |
| Abstract: | Firms can increase the demand for their products and consolidate their market power not only by increasing user utility but also by decreasing non-user utility. In this paper, we examine this mechanism by considering the case of smartphones. In particular, Apple has faced criticism for allegedly degrading the Android user experience by making messages to Android devices appear as green bubbles on iPhones—a salient signal often perceived as reflecting a lower socioeconomic status. Using samples of US college students, we show that green bubbles are widely stigmatized and that a majority of both iPhone and Android users would prefer green bubbles to no longer exist. We then conduct an incentivized deactivation experiment, revealing that iPhone users have a significant willingness to pay to prevent their messages from appearing as green bubbles on other iPhones. Next, we examine the market implications of non-user utility and find that respondents are substantially more likely to choose an Android over an iPhone when green bubbles are removed. We conclude by presenting case studies that illustrate how companies use product features to reduce non-user utility in various markets. |
| JEL: | D83 D91 J15 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33642 |
| By: | Hunt Allcott; Matthew Gentzkow; Benjamin Wittenbrink; Juan Carlos Cisneros; Adriana Crespo-Tenorio; Drew Dimmery; Deen Freelon; Sandra González-Bailón; Andrew M. Guess; Young Mie Kim; David Lazer; Neil Malhotra; Devra Moehler; Sameer Nair-Desai; Brendan Nyhan; Jennifer Pan; Jaime Settle; Emily Thorson; Rebekah Tromble; Carlos Velasco Rivera; Arjun Wilkins; Magdalena Wojcieszak; Annie Franco; Chad Kiewiet de Jonge; Winter Mason; Natalie Jomini Stroud; Joshua A. Tucker |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of social media deactivation on users’ emotional state in two large randomized experiments before the 2020 U.S. election. People who deactivated Facebook for the six weeks before the election reported a 0.060 standard deviation improvement in an index of happiness, depression, and anxiety, relative to controls who deactivated for just the first of those six weeks. People who deactivated Instagram for those six weeks reported a 0.041 standard deviation improvement relative to controls. Exploratory analysis suggests the Facebook effect is driven by people over 35, while the Instagram effect is driven by women under 25. |
| JEL: | I1 L82 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33697 |
| By: | Malte Baader (University of Zurich); Urs Fischbacher (University of Konstanz); Chris Starmer (University of Nottingham); Fabio Tufano (University of Leicester) |
| Abstract: | Identifying creative ability and its determinants is crucial in understanding artistic and innovative achievements. Previous work has shown that performance across established creativity tasks does not correlate within participants. A potential reason for this finding is that most creativity tasks lack well-defined performance criteria. In this paper, we develop a novel tool for measuring creative ability and assess its performance through experimental tests. We construct a semantic network serving as the underlying structure of our tool. Based on this network, participants perform two associative thinking tasks, Local Search and Depth Search. We characterise each task by relating it to an established measure of creativity, finding that performance in our proposed tasks is significantly related to their matched creativity task across several dimensions. Our new tool improves on established creativity tasks by utilising a predefined solution space. While capturing key features of established methodologies, it substantially increases on the ease of implementation and interpretation. In addition we also provide causal evidence on the effect of incentives on our tool. |
| Keywords: | Creativity; Associative Thinking; Methodology |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcdx:2025-01 |
| By: | Lekfuangfu, Warn N. (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Olivera, Javier (National Bank of Belgium); Van Kerm, Philippe (University of Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on two data sources from across Europe, we show that both bequest motives of parents and children’s gender composition shape unequal divisions of bequests. First, the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe reveals that observed bequests are divided unequally when children differ in sex, caregiving, or income, with bequest motives strongest among mixed-sex children. Second, in a vignette experiment featuring alternative bequest motive scenarios and randomised gender compositions for two fictitious children, hypothetical bequests are most unequally divided under the exchange motive while children’s gender composition matters more under the altruistic motive. Fictitious parents favour daughters regardless of deservingness, granting the highest bequest share to a deserving daughter with a brother. In return, these patterns reinforce traditional gender norms. |
| Keywords: | altruism, deservingness, vignette experiment, gender, intergenerational transfers, bequest, exchange, Europe, HFCS, SHARE |
| JEL: | H24 D31 D63 E62 H53 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17833 |
| By: | Ashish Arora; Sharique Hasan; William D. Miles |
| Abstract: | Solving complex problems- in medicine, engineering, and other technological domains- often requires exploring multiple approaches, particularly when significant uncertainty exists about which one will lead to success. Conventional wisdom assumes that having many experimenters independently decide which approaches to pursue increases diversity and, thus, also the chances of finding a solution. However, if experimenters herd toward the most promising approach, this convergence may reduce diversity and thus the likelihood of solving the problem. In this paper, we develop a simple model to show that, holding the total number of experiments constant, markets dominated by a few large-scale experimenters- firms conducting multiple experiments- explore more diverse approaches than markets with many single-shot experimenters. Single-shot experimenters tend to converge on the most promising approach, while multi-experimenters are more likely to diversify to avoid the correlation inherent in pursuing multiple experiments within the same approach. We test our model's predictions using data from pharmaceutical R&D. Our analysis shows that increasing the average number of experiments per firm by one unit raises target diversity by over three standard deviations. In turn, a one-standard deviation increase from the mean in target diversity boosts the likelihood of at least one experiment reaching Phase 1 clinical trials by 25.9 percentage points. Our findings inform policies for the optimal allocation of experiments across firms to maximize approach diversity and market-level success. |
| JEL: | L1 L2 O31 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33682 |
| By: | Stanley, Dustyn |
| Abstract: | We present Emergent Coherence, a flagship synthesis that unites quantum optics, quantum field theory, gravitation, thermodynamics, and information theory into a single paradigm. In this framework, all so-called “fundamental constants” emerge as coherence-decay ratios governed by universal entropic suppression functions of the form C(E) = C0 / (1 + (E/E0)^n) Key highlights: 1. Entropic Fine-Structure: Derivation of α ≈ 1/137 via entropy-driven vacuum coherence decay (Sec. 2). 2. Quantum Informational Gravity: G_eff(E) from quantum Fisher information and field-theoretic one-loop corrections (Sec. 3). 3. Harmonic π Boundaries: π as the universal coherence cell perimeter, linking Berry phases and topological invariants (Sec. 4). 4. Entropic RG: Renormalization group as gradient flow of an entropy functional S({αi}) with Fisher metric (Sec. 5). 5. Generalized Emergent Constants: Empirical justification for a universal exponent n = 2 across multiple observables (Sec. 6). 6. Concrete Experiments: Detailed proposals and required precisions for superconducting qubits, LIGO, CMB-S4, and cold-atom interferometry (Sec. 7). This document includes explicit derivations (Appendix A), cross-referenced equations, and an empirical table validating n = 2 to within uncertainties of 5–10%. We chart clear pathways for theoretical and experimental exploration in physics and beyond. |
| Date: | 2025–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:96akn_v1 |
| By: | Giovanni Facchini; Anja Neundorf; Sergi Pardos-Prado; Cecilia Testa |
| Abstract: | Regional economic conditions affect livelihoods and the geography of political resentment. Yet, individuals do not equally partake in their region’s economic fortunes, and their perceptions of relative deprivation need not be the same. Grievances are likely to be shaped not only by income disparities but also by how personal prospects are tied to regional conditions. We argue that the interaction between subjective individual and regional relative deprivation crucially affects perceptions of shared experience and systemic unfairness. Through a large-scale survey experiment in Britain, we provide causal evidence that poor individuals in poor regions express more political resentment due to diminished personal financial prospects and social status. In contrast, political attitudes among poor and wealthy individuals are indistinguishable in affluent regions. Our findings reveal how reference groups affect subjective perceptions of relative deprivation and highlight the importance of egocentric mechanisms, whereby the local economy shapes expectations of individual prospects. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2025-01 |
| By: | Eric V. Edmonds; Priya Mukherjee; Nikhilesh Prakash; Nishith Prakash; Shwetlena Sabarwal |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of a randomized therapy intervention on Nepali adolescents at risk of school dropout. Our study is the largest of its kind (N = 1, 707) and is novel in that participation does not require a preexisting diagnosis. Ninety percent of those offered therapy participated, with younger adolescents demonstrating higher compliance. Among those who complied, therapy significantly reduced psychological distress, improved emotional regulation, and enhanced life perspective, even in individuals without baseline mental health issues. However, these improvements in well-being did not lead to increased school attendance or better cognitive performance, suggesting that additional interventions may be necessary to enhance educational engagement in low-resource settings. |
| JEL: | I12 I15 I25 I31 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33677 |
| By: | Fritz, Manuela; Luck, Nathalie; Sawhney, Udit |
| Abstract: | Social norms and perceptions within farming networks can influence the adoption of new agricultural practices. In Indonesian rice farming communities, norms around the desired level of rice plant greenness are widespread, with some farmers valuing deep green plants. Since greenness levels depend on the content of chlorophyll in the plants, which in turn depends on nitrogen fertilizer inputs, these norms can lead to high usage of chemical fertilizer. This study uses a mixed-method approach to examine whether social norms, personal beliefs, and perceptions about peers’ opinions influence rice farmers’ fertilizer input decisions. We combine quantitative regression analyses with qualitative content analysis to explore these dynamics. Our findings show that farmers who are unaware of a saturation point for fertilizer application tend to use more chemical nitrogen and less organic fertilizer. These farmers are also less willing to experiment with new farming practices that might reduce plant greenness but improve soil health. However, second-order perceptions – beliefs about whether lower greenness levels lead to talking within the farming community – do not significantly affect fertilizer use or farmers’ willingness to try new methods. A survey experiment further confirms that increasing the salience of potential talking has little effect on farmers’ willingness to experiment with new practices. Dyadic regressions reveal that actual fertilizer adoption behaviors of neighboring farmers are more predictive of fertilizer input decisions than neighbors’ greenness norms. This suggests that while social norms around plant appearance exist, farmers’ decisions are more strongly influenced by their own knowledge and the observable actions of their peers. |
| Date: | 2025–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qxndc_v1 |
| By: | Yuval Salant; Jorg L. Spenkuch; David Almog |
| Abstract: | We explore the role of memory for choice behavior in unfamiliar environments. Using a unique data set, we document that decision makers exhibit a "memory premium." They tend to choose in-memory alternatives over out-of-memory ones, even when the latter are objectively better. Consistent with well-established regularities regarding the inner workings of human memory, the memory premium is associative, subject to interference and repetition effects, and decays over time. Even as decision makers gain familiarity with the environment, the memory premium remains economically large. Our results imply that the ease with which past experiences come to mind plays an important role in shaping choice behavior. |
| JEL: | D01 D03 D87 D91 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33649 |
| By: | Rafner, Janet; Guloy, Ryan Q; Wen, Eden; Chiodo, Catherine; Sherson, Jacob Friis |
| Abstract: | Generative AI (GenAI) chatbots are becoming increasingly integrated into virtual assistant technologies, yet their success hinges on the ability to gather meaningful user feedback to improve interaction quality, system outcomes, and overall user acceptance. Successful chatbot interactions can enable organizations to build long-term relationships with their customers and users, supporting customer loyalty and furthering the organization’s goals. This study explores the impact of two distinct narratives and feedback collection mechanisms on user engagement and feedback behavior: a standard AI-focused interaction versus a hybrid intelligence (HI)-framed interaction. Initial findings indicate that while survey measures showed no significant differences in user willingness to leave feedback, use the system, or trust the system, participants exposed to the HI narrative provided more detailed feedback. These findings offer insights into designing effective feedback systems for GenAI virtual assistants, balancing user effort with system improvement potential. |
| Date: | 2025–03–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:jhefx_v1 |