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on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Riedmiller, Sebastian (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods); Sutter, Matthias (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods); Tonke, Sebastian (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods) |
| Abstract: | We provide a systematic framework to diagnose underlying problems and predict intervention effectiveness ex-ante. For this, we developed a parsimonious and generalizable survey tool (anamnesis). Our anamnesis classifies underlying problems along three fundamental diagnoses: awareness, intention, and implementation problems. We validate the framework in an online experiment with 7, 500 subjects. We find that (i) intervention effectiveness is heterogeneous across different settings, and (ii) our diagnosis accurately predicts this heterogeneity. On average, predicting a 10%-effect corresponds to an actual effectiveness of 8.92%. We further demonstrate the applicability of our framework to predict heterogeneities in the setting of COVID booster take-up. |
| Keywords: | context dependency, heterogeneous treatment effects, intervention design, experiment |
| JEL: | C93 D01 D61 D90 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18273 |
| By: | Gangadharan, Lata (Monash University); Maitra, Pushkar (Monash University); Vecci, Joseph (University of Gothenburg); Veettil, Prakashan Chellattan; Villeval, Marie Claire (CNRS) |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether adherence to advice depends on an advisor’s identity and status beyond message content. Using a survey experiment with over 3000 farmers in India, we find that individuals are more likely to follow advice in a social dilemma game when it comes from high-status or in-group advisors, even when the advice diverges from prevailing norms. Admired role models can attenuate the influence of status and identity, though their beneficial effect is not universal. Our experimental findings align with evidence from an agricultural advisory program involving the same participant sample, highlighting the broader real-world relevance of these patterns. |
| Keywords: | group identity, status, social learning, advice, survey experiment |
| JEL: | C93 D83 D91 O13 Q16 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18280 |
| By: | Yanina Domenella (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid); Samuel Bentolila (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | People with intellectual and developmental disabilities (PID) show significantly lower labor force participation and employment rates compared to people without disabilities. Customized Employment (CE) has emerged as a promising approach to improve their labor market integration. This study provides the first causal evidence on CE’s effectiveness relative to the traditional Supported Employment approach through a randomized controlled trial in Spain. Our findings show that CE substantially improves employability by increasing employment probability, hours worked, and the number of labor contracts. It also enhances participation in training programs and internships. Beyond employment, CE significantly fosters social inclusion and well-being, with effects varying based on severity of disability, recognition of dependency, and family involvement. These results underscore CE’s potential as an effective strategy for improving both labor market outcomes and social integration of PIDs. |
| Keywords: | Customized employment, supported employment, disability, labor market inclusion, social integration, field experiment, Spain. |
| JEL: | J14 J21 I31 I38 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2025_2528 |
| By: | Charlotte Cordes; Jana Friedrichsen; Simeon Schudy |
| Abstract: | Experimental studies show that individuals update beliefs about ego-relevant information optimistically when they expect no resolution of uncertainty but neutrally when their ability is revealed immediately. This paper studies belief updating and the role of motivated memory when feedback is delayed but eventually disclosed. In a longitudinal experiment, participants receive noisy signals about their relative performance in a IQ-related task (Raven matrices) and learn their true rank four weeks later. Across subjects, belief updating is asymmetric: unfavorable signals are weighted less than favorable signals. Further, we identify motivated memory among participants who view the task as ego-relevant. |
| Keywords: | motivated beliefs, feedback, memory, Anticipatory utility, motivated cognition, uncertainty |
| JEL: | C91 D03 D81 D83 D84 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12286 |
| By: | Ryo Hongo (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This is the Japanese translation of E.H. Chamberlin's article 'An Experimental Imperfect Market' (1948). The article analyzed the results of those experiments which he had conducted in his course at Harvard University and showed that the prices and trading volumes in the experiments deviated from the equilibrium predicted by the standard supply and demand theory. For this contribution, he is often cited as one of the most important precursors in experimental economics (Smith 1962). |
| Keywords: | experimental economics, imperfect competition, Monopolistic Competition, Vernon Smith. |
| JEL: | B13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:301 |
| By: | Moritz Loewenfeld (Universität Wien = University of Vienna); Jiakun Zheng (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Allowing risk preferences to depend on the correlation between lottery outcomes can explain behavioral anomalies, while empirical evidence is limited and mixed. Using the framework of correlation sensitivity, we classify preferences into three types and adapt a choice task to categorize subjects. Experiments show that aggregate choices exhibit correlation sensitivity opposite to regret and salience theory predictions. Clustering analysis reveals that a correlation-sensitive minority drives these patterns, while most subjects display no sensitivity. We further disentangle deliberate within-state comparisons from incidental payoff comparisons, finding that both contribute to correlation sensitivity, with deliberate comparisons exerting slightly stronger effects. |
| Keywords: | regret theory, salience theory, experiment, correlation effects, choice under risk |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05346525 |
| By: | Kjetil Bjorvatn (NHH); Selim Gulesci (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Arne Nasgowitz (NHH); Vincent Somville (NHH); Lore Vandewalle (KU Leuven) |
| Abstract: | Can increased parental engagement in education improve children's schooling and learn- ing outcomes in low-income countries? We present experimental evidence from Uganda where mothers of primary school students were randomly offered educational materials and an action plan aligned with the school curriculum in order to support their children's homework. The intervention increased the amount of time mothers spent studying with their children. It also improved children’s likelihood to register for their end-of-term school exams which require households to pay a registration fee. Despite these improvements in parental engagement, we find no impact on children's performance in standardized tests. Our findings underscore both the promise and the limits of parental engagement, pointing to the need for complementary strategies to improve children’s learning. |
| Keywords: | Education; Parental engagement; Schooling; Learning |
| JEL: | I21 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1925 |
| By: | Uysal, Busye; Estrella, Ronny |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how users perceive and engage with disinformation when it is disseminated by virtual influencers (VIs), a growing category of AI-generated personas active on social media. While previous research has primarily focused on political figures or human influencers, this study examines responses to a non-political, human-like VI and includes digital literacy as a moderating factor. An online experiment was conducted using a between-subjects design (N = 220), in which participants were randomly assigned to view an Instagram-style post from the VI "Lil Miquela, " featuring either a neutral caption or a fabricated disinformation caption generated using AI. Participants then rated the perceived accuracy of the post and their intention to share it. Measures of digital literacy were also collected. We find that individuals exposed to a disinformation caption from a VI are more likely to perceive the claim as inaccurate compared to those shown with a neutral caption. Individuals are also less likely to share the post when they judge the claim to be less accurate. Moreover, we find that digital literacy plays a moderating role such that individuals with higher digital literacy are less influenced by the disinformation caption, showing lower perceived accuracy in response to misleading content. |
| Keywords: | Virtual Influencers, Disinformation, Claim Accuracy, Digital Literacy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse25:331313 |
| By: | Park, Sihyun; Vecchi, Martina; Jaenicke, Edward C.; Fan, Linlin; Liu, Yizao; Zhou, Pei |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343929 |
| By: | Brüll, Eduard; Mäurer, Samuel; Rostam-Afschar, Davud |
| Abstract: | We provide experimental evidence on how employers adjust expectations to automation risk in high-skill, white-collar work. Using a randomized information intervention among tax advisors in Germany, we show that firms systematically underestimate automatability. Information provision raises risk perceptions, especially for routine-intensive roles. Yet, it leaves short-run hiring plans unchanged. Instead, updated beliefs increase productivity and financial expectations with minor wage adjustments, implying within-firm inequality like limited rent-sharing. Employers also anticipate new tasks in legal tech, compliance, and AI interaction, and report higher training and adoption intentions. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, Automation, Technological Change, Innovation, Technology Adoption, Firm Expectations, Belief Updating, Expertise, Labor Demand, White Collar Jobs, Training |
| JEL: | J23 J24 D22 D84 O33 C93 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:333393 |
| By: | Arregui Alegria, Iker (Department of Economics, Lund University); Gokmen, Gunes (Department of Economics, Lund University); van Veldhuizen, Roel (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal effect of public discourse in one or both sides of the market on overall market socially responsible behavior. In a laboratory setting, we vary whether firms and/or consumers participate in a public discussion before trading begins. When both sides take part, the share of socially responsible trades increases slightly; however, when only one side participates, market social responsibility does not improve relative to a no-discourse control. These findings suggest that campaigns aiming to foster socially responsible conduct must engage all sides of the market to achieve meaningful impact. We also provide evidence that the effectiveness of public discourse will be limited when participants prioritize profits over norm adherence. |
| Keywords: | Public Discourse; Externalities; Social Responsibility; Experiment; |
| JEL: | C92 D62 D83 M14 |
| Date: | 2025–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2025_010 |
| By: | Johannes Beutel; Michael Weber |
| Abstract: | We causally test alternative theories of expectation formation. Using a randomized information experiment we show overreaction is a key feature of individuals' return expectations, and individuals' response to the price-earnings ratio is opposite to the academic consensus. Our evidence is inconsistent with standard models of expectation formation but subjective mental models that deviate from objective benchmarks can jointly explain the updating behavior in the experiment, the link between individuals' prior perceptions and expectations, and the heterogeneity of updating. Conditional on their beliefs, individuals' sensitivity of equity shares in a hypothetical portfolio choice experiment is consistent with the standard Merton model. |
| JEL: | D84 E44 G11 G12 G41 G51 G53 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34489 |
| By: | Yanina Domenella (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | During economic downturns, governments often provide business grants to stimulate entrepreneurship. However, in societies where kinship ties play a significant role, policy design may be suboptimal if spillover effects are not accounted for. This paper examines the role of family ties in shaping entrepreneurship and the effectiveness of business support measures during economic crises. Using a randomized controlled trial in Kenya, I find that entrepreneurs with larger families coped better with the crisis. However, when external funding was available, strong family ties reduced the positive effects on entrepreneurship.The analysis identifies mutual assistance, crowding-out effects, and managerial interference as key mechanisms. These findings highlight the dual role of family networks, acting as both a safety net and a constraint, with implications for the design of business support policies in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, kinship networks, private transfers, social norms, business support, crisis, field experiment, Kenya. |
| JEL: | L26 O12 O15 Z13 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2025_2529 |
| By: | Ambec, Stefan; Andersson, Henrik; Cezera, Stéphane; Kanay, Ayşegül; Ouvrard, Benjamin; Panzone, Luca A.; Simon, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | What can be done to reduce the carbon footprint of consumption? To answer this, we conducted an online shopping experiment that tested the effects of two policy tools: a carbon tax (at two levels) and a behavioral nudge in the form of a traffic light-style label indicating a product’s carbon footprint (green for low, orange for medium, and red for high). To disentangle the tax’s substitution effect from its income effect, we held consumers’ purchasing power constant. We find that the tax alone significantly reduces the carbon footprint per euro spent but not per basket purchased, implying that the reduction is driven purely by the income effect. The label alone makes consumers buy fewer red products and more green products, although without reducing significantly their carbon footprint. We do find some substitution effect and a significant reduction of the carbon footprint per basket only when the tax is high enough and combined with the label. Next, we perform a welfare analysis grounded on a theoretical framework that accommodates for several assumptions about consumer’s preferences and motivations. We estimate the loss of consumer’s surplus from nudging consumers with the label. We also estimate the consumers’ valuation of a ton of CO2 avoided when they care about their climate impact. |
| Keywords: | Carbon tax; nudge; green label; carbon footprint; climate change; moral; behavior. |
| JEL: | D12 D90 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131148 |
| By: | Afridi, Farzana (Indian Statistical Institute); Gupta, Tanu (University of Southampton); Heath, Rachel (University of Washington); Mahajan, Kanika (Ashoka University) |
| Abstract: | We study how the design of vocational skill training programs impacts labor market outcomes, including occupational choice. Women applicants to skill training centres in India are randomized into either a vocational training (VT) program that combines sector-specific hard skills with on-the-job training, or VT plus Project-Based Experiential Learning that incorporates digital skills (VTP), or a control group which is not enrolled into any skill training. Almost a year after the start of the intervention, the nature of employment shifts towards the women's preferred sector, leading to higher self-employed work and earnings therein. These positive effects are observed only for the VTP group, whose usage of social media for business purposes increases due to the intervention. At the same time, satisfaction levels of women assigned to VTP training rise on multiple dimensions. Our findings highlight the role of complementary sector-specific skills in enhancing the impact of vocational training. |
| Keywords: | on-the-job training, digital skills, vocational skilling, self-employment, women, India |
| JEL: | J24 J44 J62 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18272 |
| By: | James Bono |
| Abstract: | Security operations centers (SOCs) face a persistent challenge: efficiently triaging a high volume of user-reported phishing emails while maintaining robust protection against threats. This paper presents the first randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating the impact of a domain-specific AI agent - the Microsoft Security Copilot Phishing Triage Agent - on analyst productivity and accuracy. Our results demonstrate that agent-augmented analysts achieved up to 6.5 times as many true positives per analyst minute and a 77% improvement in verdict accuracy compared to a control group. The agent's queue prioritization and verdict explanations were both significant drivers of efficiency. Behavioral analysis revealed that agent-augmented analysts reallocated their attention, spending 53% more time on malicious emails, and were not prone to rubber-stamping the agent's malicious verdicts. These findings offer actionable insights for SOC leaders considering AI adoption, including the potential for agents to fundamentally change the optimal allocation of SOC resources. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.13860 |
| By: | Fernández, Violeta; Pietrelli, Rebecca; Torero, Maximo |
| Abstract: | Digital agriculture offers promising solutions to meet growing food demands. Investigating whether targeting youth in digital agriculture affects the adoption of good practices is a topic that has been overlooked but holds critical implications for policymakers. This study explores whether providing agricultural information via digital technologies to adolescents can influence household adoption of improved agricultural practices. Leveraging a Randomized Control Trial (RCT) conducted in collaboration with a secondary school in rural Uganda, we examined the transmission of knowledge from students to household members and assessed adoption rates and food loss reductions. To the best of our knowledge, our research is the first to focus on the effectiveness of digital technologies aimed at youth in promoting agricultural practices in Africa, particularly affordable basic farming techniques essential for vulnerable and poorer farmers. Our most conservative estimates indicate that households exposed to agricultural videos through computer classes showed substantial gains in knowledge (with a 16% increase). We find a modest effect on adoption rates, with households whose students were exposed to agricultural videos in the classroom showing twice as much adoption rates than those who were not. We speculate that the joint decision-making process could be a constraint on adoption. Interestingly, the intervention had a greater effect on poorer households and those with more traditional values, indicating that strong family ties may be a pathway for the impact. The insights contribute to bridging the gap between behavioral economics and agricultural adoption, offering practical implications for sustainable agricultural development strategies. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344380 |
| By: | Giuseppe Ciccarone; Giovanni Di Bartolomeo; Valentina Peruzzi; Maria Luigia Signore |
| Abstract: | We model creativity as capital built by costly cognitive effort that complements social capital and is often accompanied by routines that economize attention and time. Higher effort costs deter entry into the creative state, while openness and trust increase the productivity of cognitive effort mainly through creative capital. Using lab-in-the-field data from an Italian music festival and a recursive bivariate probit, we find that costs depress creativity, whereas creativity strongly boosts festival collaboration, volunteering, and territorial cooperation. Consistent with a routinization perspective, the creativity–engagement link is stronger when participation occurs in more socially "structured" environments. To encourage creativity, policies should reduce cognitive frictions and improve the productivity of cognitive effort. |
| Keywords: | Creativity; cognitive effort; social capital; routinization; field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 C35 D01 Z13 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp267 |
| By: | Teo Firpo (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin); Lukas Niemann (Tanso Technologies); Anastasia Danilov (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin) |
| Abstract: | As firms increasingly adopt Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies, how they adjust hiring practices for skilled workers remains unclear. This paper investigates whether AI-related skills are rewarded in talent recruitment by conducting a large-scale correspondence study in the United Kingdom. We submit 1, 185 résumés to vacancies across a range of occupations, randomly assigning the presence or absence of advanced AI-related qualifications. These AI qualifications are added to résumés as voluntary signals and not explicitly requested in the job postings. We find no statistically significant effect of listing AI qualifications in résumés on interview callback rates. However, a heterogeneity analysis reveals some positive and significant effects for positions in Engineering and Marketing. These results are robust to controlling for the total number of skills listed in job ads, the degree of match between résumés and job descriptions, and the level of expertise required. In an exploratory analysis, we find stronger employer responses to AI-related skills in industries with lower exposure to AI technologies. These findings suggest that the labor market valuation of AI-related qualifications is context-dependent and shaped by sectoral innovation dynamics. |
| Keywords: | return to skills; technological change; labor market; hiring; signaling; human capital; field experiment; ai-related skills; |
| JEL: | O33 J23 J24 I26 |
| Date: | 2025–11–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:552 |
| By: | Wang, Yixuan; Desai, Saumya; Kemmerling, Leonie; Trmcic, Aljosa; Wiedmann, Martin; Adalja, Aaron A. |
| Keywords: | Marketing, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343665 |
| By: | Aditya, Korekallu Srinivasa; Dagmar, Mithöfer |
| Abstract: | Solar-Powered Irrigation Systems (SPIS) are an important component of India’s effort towards sustainable energy transition and are promoted with financial support under the PM-KUSUM program. In spite of the promise and the policy push, the adoption of SPIS is low. In this paper, we use the Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) for evaluating the policy attributes in the promotion of SPIS. We selected five attributes of SPIS with different levels for the choice experiment, and a ‘D-efficient’ non-zero prior choice experimental design was used. The data was collected from 500 farmers randomly chosen from 31 villages across Mysore district, Karnataka, India, and analyzed using the random parameter logit model. For a nuanced interpretation and contextualization of the results, follow-up qualitative interviews were conducted. The results highlight that farmers preference, as indicated by the highest part worth, is for a loan with a repayment holiday of three years, followed by guaranteed service provision for 10 years. Given that SPIS is a new technology with a high initial investment, easing liquidity constraints and assuring farmers with guaranteed repair services act as strong incentives to adopt it. These findings can be incorporated into the existing policies so that they align well with farmers' preferences. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344382 |
| By: | Kane, Diamilatou; Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob; Bauchet, Jonathan; Gulati, Kajal |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, International Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343939 |
| By: | Manuel Menkhoff |
| Abstract: | Using a large German firm survey, I randomize information on documented AI productivity gains and industry adoption rates and track firms over time. Beliefs about AI’s productivity potential rise significantly after the treatments across the prior distribution without reducing uncertainty. These treatment-induced belief shifts map into behavior: in firms where the respondent has high decision authority, AI adoption is more likely one year later. Information about competitor adoption has direct effects on actions: incumbent adopters cut prices, while not-yet adopters revise business expectations upward. Together, the results highlight the role of expectations, strategic considerations, and informational frictions in shaping technology diffusion and its macroeconomic impact. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, technological change, technology adoption, firm expectations, RCT, belief updating, price-setting |
| JEL: | D22 D84 E22 E31 O33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12291 |
| By: | Michaelides, Marios (Actus Policy Research); Mueser, Peter; Poe-Yamagata, Eileen; Davis, Scott |
| Abstract: | The Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program is a job-search assistance intervention targeting Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants in the United States. The program requires new UI claimants to attend a counseling session at the start of their UI claims to: 1) undergo an eligibility review to confirm their compliance with UI work search requirements, and 2) receive customized reemployment services. This study reports the results of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) of the Wisconsin RESEA program conducted in 2022-2023, a period of strong labor market conditions. Results show that the program increased take-up of job counseling services and significantly reduced UI duration and benefit amounts collected, generating substantial savings for the UI system. Further, requiring participants to attend a follow-up counseling session is shown to cause additional reductions in UI receipt, beyond those achieved by the initial session. |
| Date: | 2025–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zp24c_v1 |
| By: | Miao, Yiyuan; Swallow, Brent M.; Goddard, Ellen W.; Sheng, Jiping |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343830 |
| By: | Thomas R. Cook; Sophia Kazinnik; Zach Modig; Nathan M. Palmer |
| Abstract: | Large language models (LLMs) are now used for economic reasoning, but their implicit "preferences” are poorly understood. We study LLM preferences as revealed by their choices in simple allocation games and a job-search setting. Most models favor equal splits in dictator-style allocation games, consistent with inequality aversion. Structural estimates recover Fehr–Schmidt parameters that indicate inequality aversion is stronger than in similar experiments with human participants. However, we find these preferences are malleable: reframing (e.g., masking social context) and learned control vectors shift choices toward payoff-maximizing behavior, while personas move them less effectively. We then turn to a more complex economic scenario. Extending a McCall job search environment, we also recover effective discounting from accept/reject policies, but observe that model responses may not always be rationalizable, and in some cases suggest inconsistent preferences. Efforts to steer LLM responses in the McCall scenario are also less consistent. Together, our results suggest (i) LLMs exhibit latent preferences that may not perfectly align with typical human preferences and (ii) LLMs can be steered toward desired preferences, though this is more difficult with complex economic tasks. |
| Keywords: | large language models; Simulation modeling |
| JEL: | C63 C68 C61 D14 D83 D91 E20 E21 |
| Date: | 2025–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:102166 |
| By: | Mateus Joffily (CNRS, Université Lumière Lyon 2, Université Jean Monnet Saint-Etienne, emlyon business school, GATE, 69007 Lyon, France); Thijs van de Laar (Department of Electrical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | Variants of the Ellsberg urn experiments introduced by Machina (Am. Econ. Rev., 99(1), 385-392, 2009) have challenged several prominent models of ambiguity aversion. We show that our Bayesian hierarchical model - originally developed to explain Ellsberg-type preferences - also captures the ambiguity preferences observed in Machina's reflection example. Our findings indicate that ambiguity aversion in both the Ellsberg and Machina paradoxes can be attributed to pessimistic prior beliefs about unobserved outcomes. Moreover, the model predicts an asymmetric pattern of preferences across intermediate payoff levels in the reflection example: ambiguity aversion is stronger when the intermediate payoff lies closer to the worst outcome, while the opposite holds for ambiguity-seeking preferences. |
| Keywords: | Machina Paradox; Ambiguity Aversion; Bayesian Modeling |
| JEL: | C63 D81 D91 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2525 |
| By: | Sandoval M, Luis A.; Lopez, María J.; Mejia, William A.; Morales, Sarahi D.; Mamani Escobar, Brenda A. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Marketing, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343714 |
| By: | Giuseppe Attanasi; Giuseppe Ciccarone; Valentina Peruzzi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how collective cultural participation shapes the micro-dynamics of trust formation and its short-term social and economic effects. Using unique microdata from a long-term field study of collective cultural participation, comprising more than 13, 000 face-to-face interviews, we examine whether engagement in shared artistic experiences enhances instantaneous social capital, defined as a temporary yet socially meaningful increase in interpersonal trust. Results show that emotional and bodily participation in collective performances significantly increases the likelihood of reporting higher trust toward others. This situational trust, in turn, predicts a greater willingness to volunteer and higher local spending. The findings highlight that cultural events can act as catalysts of both social cohesion and local economic vitality, even within short-lived, non-institutional settings. |
| Keywords: | social capital; trust; cultural participation; field study; prosocial behavior; local development |
| JEL: | Z13 D91 D64 O18 C83 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp266 |
| By: | Stefano DellaVigna; Eva Vivalt |
| Abstract: | Forecasts about research findings affect critical scientific decisions, such as what treatments an R&D lab invests in, or which papers a researcher decides to write. But what do we know about the accuracy of these forecasts? We analyze a unique data set of all 100 projects posted on the Social Science Prediction Platform from 2020 to 2024, which received 53, 298 forecasts in total, including 66 projects for which we also have results. We show that forecasters, on average, over-estimate treatment effects; however, the average forecast is quite predictive of the actual treatment effect. We also examine differences in accuracy across forecasters. Academics have a slightly higher accuracy than non-academics, but expertise in a field does not increase accuracy. A panel of motivated repeat forecasters has higher accuracy, but this does not extend more broadly to all repeat forecasters. Confidence in the accuracy of one's forecasts is perversely associated with lower accuracy. We also document substantial cross-study correlation in accuracy among forecasters and identify a group of "superforecasters". Finally, we relate our findings to results in the literature as well as to expert forecasts. |
| JEL: | D01 D91 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34493 |